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Author Topic: (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan  (Read 75618 times)
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yenom
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December 16, 2013, 01:39:49 PM
 #121

No, I had not seen that one!  That's what I get for skimming though page 4.  Nice work, I like playing with the delayed gains option.

Anyway, the one I was working on is done now too: http://bitcoinsavingsplan.com/

Comments/criticisms/error checking welcomed  Smiley

Wow what an awesome tool! Thanks! I know this is only cosmetic but could you allow an option to change the currency symbol?
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December 16, 2013, 02:30:52 PM
 #122

Can someone explain to me why the plan is only to sell at every doubling?  Why not continuously (or at whatever the smaller practical interval is)?  Of course, you would use a smaller rake that matches your interval. 

Seems like a continuous rake is better.  Otherwise you're basically betting that *if* bitcoin fails to reach your next rake, it fails just after your last rake.  If it fails just before your next rake, you'll miss your selling opportunity.  I don't think anyone wants to intentionally make those bets, since the first rake point is arbitrary.
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January 02, 2014, 04:06:27 PM
 #123

Yes, I'm actually choosing a more frequent draw with a proportionally smaller rake. Also thought I'd bump this thread for folks thinking about planning for the year ahead.
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January 02, 2014, 07:48:04 PM
 #124

Of course it is better to sell continuously. The reason why initially a doubling was chosen for selling point is that it is easier to grasp for people who are not proficient in math.
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January 02, 2014, 09:17:17 PM
 #125

Of course it is better to sell continuously. The reason why initially a doubling was chosen for selling point is that it is easier to grasp for people who are not proficient in math Almost Everybody (granted this forum is better off than the general populace).

 Fixed Grin
Those capable will quickly modify the plan to suit their own needs.
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February 12, 2014, 11:48:34 PM
 #126

Hi Risto,
I just read this thread, and have thoroughly enjoyed what you've written. Your investment plan seems simple and easy to follow. However, I feel raking is only a good strategy for large holders, and cumbersome for small timers. I don't have much btc, so my current plan is to hold for as long as possible, without withdrawing any funds. Perhaps I'll reconsider raking a small percentage if the price stabilises at $10k. However it seems silly to rake a fixed percentage, and then leave those funds tied up in depreciating fiat.

Perhaps another good strategy is to make a list of required purchases. ie new laptop or phone etc....... And only purchase those goods when the btc is high. That way we're stimulating the btc economy, and not removing excessive btc from our investment?

Also, selling btc for fiat, would mean jumping from sound money, to debt-based garbage.

Just my thoughts. Perhaps you could comment on my strategy?

Thanks Smiley
And, this thread has made me think, so its me helped alot.
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February 12, 2014, 11:57:16 PM
 #127


Also, selling btc for fiat, would mean jumping from sound money, to debt-based garbage.


fiat can be exchanged for many things. For a short time, you can still even trade it for gold, and other valuable things!  I wouldn't recommend accumulating vast quantities of scrap paper...
If you are only raking enough for consumer electronics, perhaps you should wait for another few orders of magnitude increase, and shoot for real estate, gold, silver, art etc as items to buy, although metals can of course be had in very small quantities...
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February 13, 2014, 01:08:40 AM
 #128


Also, selling btc for fiat, would mean jumping from sound money, to debt-based garbage.


fiat can be exchanged for many things. For a short time, you can still even trade it for gold, and other valuable things!  I wouldn't recommend accumulating vast quantities of scrap paper...
If you are only raking enough for consumer electronics, perhaps you should wait for another few orders of magnitude increase, and shoot for real estate, gold, silver, art etc as items to buy, although metals can of course be had in very small quantities...

Perhaps I'm deluded, but I truly believe bitcoin will exist for a couple of decades.
So, I think raking would hurt small holders atm, but is a good idea for the future.
$1M a coin is probably conservative, so I guess I just want to hold as much as I can for as long as possible.
Maybe I can start raking in a few years, depending on price.
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February 13, 2014, 05:18:49 AM
 #129

Hi Risto,
I just read this thread, and have thoroughly enjoyed what you've written. Your investment plan seems simple and easy to follow. However, I feel raking is only a good strategy for large holders, and cumbersome for small timers. I don't have much btc, so my current plan is to hold for as long as possible, without withdrawing any funds. Perhaps I'll reconsider raking a small percentage if the price stabilises at $10k. However it seems silly to rake a fixed percentage, and then leave those funds tied up in depreciating fiat.

Perhaps another good strategy is to make a list of required purchases. ie new laptop or phone etc....... And only purchase those goods when the btc is high. That way we're stimulating the btc economy, and not removing excessive btc from our investment?

Also, selling btc for fiat, would mean jumping from sound money, to debt-based garbage.

Just my thoughts. Perhaps you could comment on my strategy?

Thanks Smiley
And, this thread has made me think, so its me helped alot.

You can start raking only after your BTC investments reach a certain percentage of your portfolio. For example you can defer raking until Bitcoin reaches 50% of your portfolio.
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February 22, 2014, 08:07:30 PM
 #130

Say at one point down the road one wishes to withdraw a sizable % of Bitcoin for fiat conversion to use in that realm.  What site/exchange would allow the largest bank transfer in one sitting?  Would a sizable transfer have to be made incrementally?

It's not a matter of if.  It's a matter of when.
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February 23, 2014, 12:27:03 PM
 #131

The exchange situation will look very different a year from now, and unrecognizable within 3 years. Massive movements of value to and from BTC will likely be happening with some regularity (by traders and investors) similar to current forex markets and so I expect this will not be a problem. I hope.
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March 19, 2014, 01:29:25 PM
 #132

Just jumped back on the train (or train to come). Time to start the SSS plan. Here's what I am doing, please scrutinize it so I have all the information needed to make an informed decision.

5 BTC > 4 in cold storage, 1 in hot for BTC trading (only selling at a premium with an immediate repurchase).

Additionally, I am printing out paper wallets (laminated) for each cash out value and will be investing a proportion of each cash out value into something else for diversification (real estate, commodities, etc.)




Any suggestions?



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April 03, 2014, 12:55:45 AM
 #133

Nice calculation. Im terrible at spreadsheets, but i just made another experiment. I took the jump that BTC made from $5 to $1000 and projected by about 90, which puts us on the average price lately and to an hipotetical mark of $87,500 USD per BTC in a 'hope-not-too-distant' future  Wink Also, i toyed with the factors. Instead selling when price doubles, i take a more defensive stance acting when price gets a 50% increase. And also defensive, when the system tells me to sell, i sell not a 10% stake, but a 15%. Lets say im not a complete convert :-)
The results are nice though. I breakeven sometime between BTC reaching about $1800. When BTC breaks the 10K USD mark, and all my friends start telling me "hey, you are rich now or what?" i will not, but i will have netted about $10K from the investment and i will keep a healthy 1,35 BTC. In the boom scenario, with BTC at $87K each, i have $41000 in my pocket and still have more than that in BTC, just in case we literally go to the moon. I didnt advance further because i firmly believe that not in 1 million, but in anything between $50,000/$100,000 per BTC, the world will have changed a lot, and one hamburger probably will cost $50. We will see. Hope this can be useful to someone.



   Factor   1,50   Factor 15%               
   BTC   Price           Remaining BTC   BTC Sold         $ Value sold            $ sold totalBTC     $ Remaining Value   All Holdings BTC+USD
   5   450,00   5,00000000                   0                 0                               0                      2250                   2250
            675,00   4,25000000         0,75000000            $506,25                 $337,50              2868,75                   3206,25
      1012,50   3,61250000         0,63750000            $645,47                  $982,97              3657,65625           4640,625
      1518,75   3,07062500         0,54187500           $822,97                 $1.805,94              4663,511719           6469,453125
      2278,13   2,61003125         0,46059375          $1.049,29                 $2.855,23              5945,977441           8801,208984
      3417,19   2,21852656         0,39150469          $1.337,84                 $4.193,08              7581,121238          11774,19771
      5125,78   1,88574758         0,33277898          $1.705,75                 $5.898,83              9665,929578          15564,75832
      7688,67   1,60288544         0,28286214          $2.174,83                 $8.073,66             12324,06021          20397,72311
      11533,01   1,36245263         0,24043282          $2.772,91                $10.846,58             15713,17677          26559,75322
      17299,51   1,15808473         0,20436789          $3.535,46                $14.382,04             20034,30038          34416,3416
      25949,27   0,98437202         0,17371271          $4.507,72                $18.889,76             25543,73299          44433,4918
      38923,90   0,83671622       0,14765580          $5.747,34                $24.637,10             32568,25956          57205,35829
      58385,85   0,71120879         0,12550743          $7.327,86                $31.964,96             41524,53094          73489,48807
      87578,78   0,60452747         0,10668132          $9.343,02                $41.307,98             52943,77695          94251,75354


Raising the 1,50 raise of BTC to 2 or lowering the selling factor from 15% to 10% outputs really nice numbers to dream with :-)
Cheers


Free Faucet for BTC,LTC and DOGE, daily, no need even to log! : http://tinyurl.com/qbtzjg3
My BTC Adress: 1Bjx5Wbv7FeBMiWGiLbFQztU1BsQRYMALt   NXT: Top8    THE MONERO GAME : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=819073.0
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April 03, 2014, 07:35:35 AM
 #134

Great guide

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April 03, 2014, 07:35:52 AM
 #135

Great guide

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April 03, 2014, 07:55:50 AM
 #136

Glad I came across this guide, time to go SSS!
Since BTC is now at very low, I plan to buy some and work out the plan now. Thanks to OP!

Left brain is a bitch
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April 03, 2014, 08:06:20 AM
 #137

If you buy now, it is quite likely you will get to dividend phase this year Smiley
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April 03, 2014, 09:22:21 AM
 #138

If you buy now, it is quite likely you will get to dividend phase this year Smiley

rpietila, any comments on my table? Do you think its unproductive in terms of capital allocation/risk reward the numbers i used? Also, about alex post in page 1 if i remember well, are you agree that also the inflationary forces on USD vs. the BTC theoretical deflationary/stable environment will help to shape the equation even better?
Thanks for your amazing post! You are responsible for half an hour lost toying with excel  Grin Grin

Free Faucet for BTC,LTC and DOGE, daily, no need even to log! : http://tinyurl.com/qbtzjg3
My BTC Adress: 1Bjx5Wbv7FeBMiWGiLbFQztU1BsQRYMALt   NXT: Top8    THE MONERO GAME : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=819073.0
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April 03, 2014, 01:56:47 PM
 #139

If you buy now, it is quite likely you will get to dividend phase this year Smiley

rpietila, any comments on my table? Do you think its unproductive in terms of capital allocation/risk reward the numbers i used? Also, about alex post in page 1 if i remember well, are you agree that also the inflationary forces on USD vs. the BTC theoretical deflationary/stable environment will help to shape the equation even better?
Thanks for your amazing post! You are responsible for half an hour lost toying with excel  Grin Grin


I think you should conserve the bitcoins by skipping the first few sales, only start selling at $2,000 would make it better imo.

Buy now as they are cheap.



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April 03, 2014, 02:20:13 PM
 #140

Great post and thank you. Although I don't understand do you think bitcoin is still profitable for the people coming into the game now ?

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