(SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan

[JayJuanGee]

I love you SSS plan http://bitcoinsavingsplan.com.   I am using it for Nxt now. Too bad there is not an option to add other crypto's like Nxt.

Thanks, I think it should still work fine as long as you ignore the BTC units  

I just updated it today based on some requests to be able to modify the "doubling" to other values.  You can now modify the cycle multiplier to trigger a sell on 2x, 1.5x, 1.1x, etc.

Also, if you want to set up a fixed withdrawal rate in fiat, there is an option under the cycle multiplier to calculate that for you based on a given rake %.

I really like this tool, also.  

I do have one suggestion that may make the tool even more amazing, and that would be able to individually modify the multiplier for each cycle.  In that regard, each line would have its own multiplier and I would NOT want to rake very much in earlier cycles; however, in later cycles my rake multiplier would be higher.  So, if I could set the multiplier on each line, then I would really be able to customize the plan to my individualized preference(s)

Next you will want your customizations to be saved for you, because you will feel it's too annoying to redo all the tweaking tomorrow, when you have a new idea. I think the tool is good as it is. If you want something more personalized, you can create your own spreadsheet. Takes just a few minutes. If you want it to be accessible from anywhere, use Google Docs or some other similar service.

Raindex:  Your comment seems to contain several incorrect assumptions about my motivations in making my earlier comment/ suggestion.

I was making a suggestion for an improvement for the tool for others, and NOT for myself.  

The improvement does NOT need to made if others do NOT believe my suggestion would be helpful...

Certainly, we can have different opinions about this kind of thing without making assumptions about nit-picky or negative motives of others.  

Personally, I also made the comment/suggestion because I doubt that it would be a good idea to have a rigid plan that has a set multiplier over a long period of time...  Even though such a rigid projection may work for some peope, it may NOT work out or be realistic for real world, application,.. but to each his own, especially if some people believe that it projects well for their needs and their calculations and planning.

 I do NOT know how to create these kinds of web-based charts, and to post them on the web; however, I DO know how to utilize various Excel calculation tools for my own personal calculations, projections and plans, and I do NOT mind sharing my various plans with others, to the extent that other may find my plans and conceptions useful, and to the extent that i have solidified my projections into a raking plan.  

At this point, my average BTC investment cost is around $600, so I currently do NOT intend to make any meaningful rake before $2,400-ish.  I am waiting for a couple of real large sums of fiat to hit my banking account soon, as well, so the amount and the timing of that money may affect my average BTC cost(s), depending on the price of BTC at the time that my new lump sums of fiat hit my bank account.  

Additionally, I may begin to trade a portion of my profits between $800 and $2,400, depending on how quickly BTC prices rise, and what is my average BTC price while BTC is within those price ranfgs... At this point, I am a little nervous about making any sales of BTC below $1,000 based on my own investment costs and my own beliefs concerning where the BTC trendline is at the moment.      

[1714031330]

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[1714031330]

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[raindex]

I was making a suggestion for an improvement for the tool for others, and NOT for myself.  

I have no doubt about that. Sorry if you felt hostility in my comment; it wasn't my intention.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Saw someone else link to this plan in a thread and it looked like a good strategy so just commenting here
Starting in 2009 with those pizzas and moving forward Bitcoin development started to grow at a rapid pace
And now we are starting to see merchant adoption rising at a similar rate
In my opinion that means it will only  be a matter of time before the individual usage rate starts to spread due to the networking effect.

As you said
The past cannot be changed, but there are enough gains waiting for us in the future to amply reward those who care to exercise their logic and invest rationally.

So thanks for sharing

[fran2k]

Very nice one. I just going to adopt something like this but with different %.

[dennydotco]

I made a Google spreadsheet template if anyone wants it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ImKoEk72HK7zuOf3FBa2mbcf6qxoe7tmvWgYIWwwnPM/edit?usp=sharing

On the template I put a 5%, 10%, and 20% rake at doubling intervals. Right now the first rake is set at $1000, but you can adjust it to what works for you. I personally have my first rake set at $4000. I'm hoping that happens later this year.

EDIT: After reading JayJuanGee's suggestion I added a way to choose your own multiplier and rake rather than having presets.

[BTCish]

I made a Google spreadsheet template if anyone wants it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ImKoEk72HK7zuOf3FBa2mbcf6qxoe7tmvWgYIWwwnPM/edit?usp=sharing

On the template I put a 5%, 10%, and 20% rake at doubling intervals. Right now the first rake is set at $1000, but you can adjust it to what works for you. I personally have my first rake set at $4000. I'm hoping that happens later this year.

EDIT: After reading JayJuanGee's suggestion I added a way to choose your own multiplier and rake rather than having presets.

Thanks, very nice.

[nextblast]

Thanks OP for providing such a informative thread.
I'll mark this thread and read it in detail later. 

[Trolololo]

(...) the one I was working on is done now too: http://bitcoinsavingsplan.com/

Comments/criticisms/error checking welcomed  

I have paid you a small tip of 1 million satoshis to 1Save78yHN1S6oaFwoeWjhfrciDTsvWtu  

[cutesakura]

for now the easiest way to get this is to follow the forum and follow the sig. campaign, in which a certain level you will get a large enough number of constructive post your results, there are paid weekly and there are monthly, various payments made, just how do you adjust the level of payment that you will receive ... 

[d9000]

(...) the one I was working on is done now too: http://bitcoinsavingsplan.com/

Comments/criticisms/error checking welcomed  

I have paid you a small tip of 1 million satoshis to 1Save78yHN1S6oaFwoeWjhfrciDTsvWtu  

Thank you!

[chriswilmer]

Excellent thread - thanks!!

I hacked together a quick Google Docs spreadsheet to play with the numbers for my own uses, and I'm in the process of creating a small website with an SSS-style calculator on it.

I'll keep you posted when it's up.

Did you see this,or is it not SSS-like enough for your tastes?
http://xzist.org/amazing-bitcoin-retirement-fund-calculator/

You're welcome to re-use the source.

No, I had not seen that one!  That's what I get for skimming though page 4.  Nice work, I like playing with the delayed gains option.

Anyway, the one I was working on is done now too: http://bitcoinsavingsplan.com/

Comments/criticisms/error checking welcomed 

Awesome site!

[JayJuanGee]

I made a Google spreadsheet template if anyone wants it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ImKoEk72HK7zuOf3FBa2mbcf6qxoe7tmvWgYIWwwnPM/edit?usp=sharing

On the template I put a 5%, 10%, and 20% rake at doubling intervals. Right now the first rake is set at $1000, but you can adjust it to what works for you. I personally have my first rake set at $4000. I'm hoping that happens later this year.

EDIT: After reading JayJuanGee's suggestion I added a way to choose your own multiplier and rake rather than having presets.

WOW!!!!!   

I just went to the link and I played around with it, and I made a copy and inserted some of my own ideas of numbers that would be fitting to my current situation and thinking..

The spreadsheet is short and sweet and works really nice to allow the tweaking of the numbers and percentages to consider what could be a fitting plan for individuals who have differing ideas regarding rake points and BTC price performance probabilities.

Thanks Dennydotco.

[rpietila]

After a long decline in price, many have understandably grown weary and abandoned the plan (even if they successfully used it during the last bull run).

No reason to do this. If followed rigorously, the plan caused selling some bitcoins at the top, and remember that it expressly forbad to buy them back even at the cheap prices that followed.

For those who only now come to BTC (or whose cost basis is <500 otherwise), the plan is still very good because bitcoin continues to be an asset with a limited downside (zero at most, -100%), but with an unbounded upside, (+100%, +1000%, +10000%). The correct way of investing is unchanged: select a small but significant enough of a stake (not 1%, not 50%+, but something in between), buy it in a quick order (DCA is a flawed concept in this style of investing), and set a rake schedule that suits your preferences.

For those who emotionally cannot handle a 100% loss, I would add a (mental) tweak: Invest 50% of your net worth to a basket that contains 10% of BTC, 10% of Monero and 80% of cash. When the cash is distributed wisely (in different currencies, jurisdictions, and banks, with some tucked in your mattress), it is pretty safe. Then you maximum loss even if BTC and XMR both go to zero, is -20%. That's pretty manageable, isn't it! The upside is still there.

[molecular]

For those who emotionally cannot handle a 100% loss, I would add a (mental) tweak: Invest 50% of your net worth to a basket that contains 10% of BTC, 10% of Monero and 80% of cash. When the cash is distributed wisely (in different currencies, jurisdictions, and banks, with some tucked in your mattress), it is pretty safe. Then you maximum loss even if BTC and XMR both go to zero, is -20%. That's pretty manageable, isn't it! The upside is still there.

hehe, if you can't handle the fear of losing 100% of your 10% investment, just go for a 50% investment you can at most lose 20% of.

I like it: if you have some psychological flaw keeping you from doing something you want to do, just brainfuck yourself around it.

[JayJuanGee]

After a long decline in price, many have understandably grown weary and abandoned the plan (even if they successfully used it during the last bull run).

No reason to do this. If followed rigorously, the plan caused selling some bitcoins at the top, and remember that it expressly forbad to buy them back even at the cheap prices that followed.

Certainly, I believe that there is considerable value in planning ahead and even having some kinds of concrete plans that are NOT going to cause you to panic at the wrong moments.  However, sometimes, there also needs to be some flexibility because no market system is going to follow any mathematical formulas with precision because there are humans and manipulators and politicians involved.

I think that you are correct that a lot of previous bulls are becoming weary of bitcoin, and it will be interesting to see whether they start to buy back into bitcoin if it goes above $500 and then continues upwards and maybe by the time they buy back in (if they do) then BTC prices will be back on a downward trajectory (ups and downs that are NOT easy to predict or contain by many manipulators while they are happening).


Yes, I understand the concept of rake and then to keep your rake or to diversify your rake (and NOT to buy back in); however, sometimes modification may be practical and necessary, especially if an investor knows that the price is going to come back up, but in the meantime the price is being manipulated downward.  In those kinds of circumstances, a person can sell part of his BTC holdings and buy back in for larger holdings.  NO that practice is NOT clean, and it is NOT mathematical and yes it takes judgement and guesses that may result in the investor guessing wrong and missing out on gains that he could have had.

For those who only now come to BTC (or whose cost basis is <500 otherwise), the plan is still very good because bitcoin continues to be an asset with a limited downside (zero at most, -100%), but with an unbounded upside, (+100%, +1000%, +10000%). The correct way of investing is unchanged: select a small but significant enough of a stake (not 1%, not 50%+, but something in between), buy it in a quick order (DCA is a flawed concept in this style of investing), and set a rake schedule that suits your preferences.

Yes, dollar cost averaging (DCA) is a bit of a different practice from what you are proposing, but DCA is NOT incompatible with concepts of raking profits.  DCA can work with any investment and it can be more assured way of investing rather than a balls to the walls alternative.

DCA is a tried and trued method that anticipates that in the long run, the asset will be going up in price, or at some point will return to an upward trajectory.  In that sense, DCA works with every kind of investment, except for those that never return to an upward price trajectory.... but even then, a fairly strict DCA practice may allow an investor to discontinue investing in a depreciating asset that does NOT appear to have any recovery in its future.


Actually, there are fairly new investors within the past 2 years that could hold a sizable quantity of bitcoin and have cost bases anywhere between $0 and $2,000 - likely most of them that merely bought at various points and hold will have cost bases largely between $220 and $700.  You will have cost bases outside of the largely $220 to $700 when you either got unlucky or lucky in buying outside of the range or you engaged in failing or or successful trades. 

I see no real reason for a person to NOT continue to buy and to accumulate at this time, and DCA allows someone to continue to invest a certain percentage of his/her income while continuing to have the income coming in.  Normal people do NOT usually have large chunks of money to invest but instead have a stream of income in which they can DCA and/or invest and spend wisely by living within their income stream (rather than beyond it).

Your suggestion to take a stake between 1% and 50% seems to be a bit broad, but instead more feasible that someone figures out their income stream and their expenses and then figure out ways to live within their means by investing a certain portion of their extra money (or extra that they have created by frugality) to invest in Bitcoin.  Then the rake concepts will apply as BTC prices appreciate and that they are able to monitor that BTC prices can move fairly quickly in order that they can act (to rake) at more or less the preset BTC price that they have established.

Also, surely, let's say for example that at this time, a guy's average cost basis is $500, and at this time he decides that he wants to begin to rake at 2x 10% and then continue to rake 5% thereafter at every 1.5x.  If he discontinues completely to invest in BTC, then his cost basis will remain at $500, and it will be easy; however, life in reality and the reality of normal people is NOT so easy.  It is likely for a variety of reasons that his cost basis is going to change through time, whether he buys more BTC or he sells BTC.... The guy(gal) likely has an income stream in fiat, and may want to continue to periodically invest in BTC... or through time, a person may also develop part of an income stream in BTC, which may cause some of the cost basis calculations to become a little more complicated to clarify and to keep track of.

For those who emotionally cannot handle a 100% loss, I would add a (mental) tweak: Invest 50% of your net worth to a basket that contains 10% of BTC, 10% of Monero and 80% of cash. When the cash is distributed wisely (in different currencies, jurisdictions, and banks, with some tucked in your mattress), it is pretty safe. Then you maximum loss even if BTC and XMR both go to zero, is -20%. That's pretty manageable, isn't it! The upside is still there.

This is very incomplete advise for real people.  Surely some people may want to follow these kinds of formulations; however, in the real world, people get involved in all kinds of investments (even yourself), such as real estate, precious metals (PM), other cryptos, the stock market, bonds, family business, etc.

Your point about diversification is certainly valid, and your points about considering net worth, available income, liquid assets and percentage allocations to direct towards each area are very valid considerations that are going to play out differently for each person and their risk profiles.

Certainly, some people could put 5% of their income stream into BTC; however, that may entail less than 1% of their total assets and maybe even less than .5% of their liquid assets.

Surely it is a good thing to get a grasp on these various concepts in order to plan how you are investing and risks that you are ready, willing and able to take and when and what points you plan to rake and to either diversify or to use the rake for life enjoyment, rather than reinvesting.

[smoothie]

A pretty simple plan is to invest only what you can lose 100% on.

If you can't lose 100% of what you think you want to invest...you probably should invest much much less.

It's your call and no one else's.

Proceed at your own risk.

[Q7]

What I'm doing right now is basically using the money that i would otherwise spent it for entertainment and buying other non valued stuff and put it into bitcoin. If it becomes trash one day, the loses wouldn not significantly impact or bring down my whole life.

[JayJuanGee]

A pretty simple plan is to invest only what you can lose 100% on.

If you can't lose 100% of what you think you want to invest...you probably should invest much much less.

It's your call and no one else's.

Proceed at your own risk.

Yeah, but the SSS plan is NOT only about choosing how much to invest, but also about a plan for raking profits and holding off from raking those profits too soon.. maybe even to take some thinking out of the equation, by creating an investment plan ahead of time, and attempting to stick with such ahead of time created plan.

I personally think that the SSS plan is a good framework for starting to think about possibilities, and that the SSS could pay off really well in some scenarios, but some would call such a plan a bit insane rather than sane to expect mathematical and continued exponential growth in BTC..... especially as some of the big player downward bank manipulators increasingly come into the BTC space.

I have tweaked and personalized the SSS plan in such a way that currently I am dividing my BTC portfolio into 3 portions, but within some of my BTC portions, I will be trading (based on a preset model that I have personalized and is adaptive to my view of the world of bitcoin and the probabilities of certain outcomes), and the other portion of my BTC portfolio, I will be raking as the price goes up (in the event that it does go up, which i am sort of presuming within my plan - even though I am prepared for the scenario that BTC prices may NOT go up (and that is investing no more than I can afford to lose. 

 I concede that the SSS did provide me with some terms in which to think about what I consider to be realistic probabilities within my own plan while allowing savings, trading, and trading only with a portion of my BTC portfolio that assumes that it remains very likely that at some unexpected point, there could be an exponential spurt upward in BTC values that will cause part of my portfolio (that had been sold) to be treated as a rake.

[BitChick]

A pretty simple plan is to invest only what you can lose 100% on.

If you can't lose 100% of what you think you want to invest...you probably should invest much much less.

It's your call and no one else's.

Proceed at your own risk.

Yeah, but the SSS plan is NOT only about choosing how much to invest, but also about a plan for raking profits and holding off from raking those profits too soon.. maybe even to take some thinking out of the equation, by creating an investment plan ahead of time, and attempting to stick with such ahead of time created plan.

I personally think that the SSS plan is a good framework for starting to think about possibilities, and that the SSS could pay off really well in some scenarios, but some would call such a plan a bit insane rather than sane to expect mathematical and continued exponential growth in BTC..... especially as some of the big player downward bank manipulators increasingly come into the BTC space.

I have tweaked and personalized the SSS plan in such a way that currently I am dividing my BTC portfolio into 3 portions, but within some of my BTC portions, I will be trading (based on a preset model that I have personalized and is adaptive to my view of the world of bitcoin and the probabilities of certain outcomes), and the other portion of my BTC portfolio, I will be raking as the price goes up (in the event that it does go up, which i am sort of presuming within my plan - even though I am prepared for the scenario that BTC prices may NOT go up (and that is investing no more than I can afford to lose. 

 I concede that the SSS did provide me with some terms in which to think about what I consider to be realistic probabilities within my own plan while allowing savings, trading, and trading only with a portion of my BTC portfolio that assumes that it remains very likely that at some unexpected point, there could be an exponential spurt upward in BTC values that will cause part of my portfolio (that had been sold) to be treated as a rake.

After experiencing a couple Bitcoin bubbles and not taking advantage of those rises as well as I should have, I fully understand the need for something like this SSS plan.  It is so easy to get very emotional about buying and selling for some people and I am admittedly one of those people!  I realize now that to really benefit fully it is extremely important to have a plan like this in place in order to make wiser decisions in the future.  The difficult part is just waiting for the next price increase so I can put this plan into practice.

[JayJuanGee]

Everyone preparing their variations of SSS cashing out charts?