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Author Topic: Jim Rogers: Before All This Is Over, Gold Is Going Through The Roof  (Read 173 times)
allthingsluxury
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April 30, 2018, 02:57:47 PM
 #1


Legendary investor Jim Rogers said enjoy the market rally while it lasts, issuing a dire warning that “the worst correction of his lifetime,” is coming for stocks.

“Soon something’s going to happen that will make everyone happy again and the market will go up one more time, and that will probably be the last hoorah. Next year will be not a lot of fun,” Rogers said in an interview with Kitco News on Monday.

He added, "It’s been ten years since we have had a bear market, that is very, very unusual so the next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime."

When promoted to quantify the correction, Rogers said it would easily be over 50%.



Click here to watch this video and to read more:

https://jimroger.blogspot.com/2018/04/jim-rogers-before-all-this-is-over-gold.html


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April 30, 2018, 04:10:35 PM
 #2

Jim Rodgers has been bearish on the stock market since the 1980s and how well has that prediction worked out? The stock market has been a tremendous engine for wealth accumulation over that time. People who constantly predict economic collapse are tiresome, and it's very much a case of the boy who cried wolf. Jim Rodgers isn't the worst of them, but because there are so many of them, his predictions can mostly be lumped in with them. The bearish sentiment on the stock market has to be viewed as a black mark, even though his own fund handily outperformed. Outperforming something doesn't make the other thing a bad investment. The stock market has been an excellent investment since the 1980s.
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April 30, 2018, 04:23:32 PM
 #3

Gold was $1660/ounce in year 2012, so gold should go back to $2100/ounce. When stock markets (DOW) went up from 19,000 to 26,000 under Donald Trump's Presidency how can the safest investment for next 50 to 100 years (gold) not reach it's all time high or new high price of $2,100/ounce.

Either the stock market crash of -20% will bring money to Gold or Gold is getting $18,000,000,000,000 after stock markets worldwide got the multi-trillion dollars since 2016
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April 30, 2018, 04:40:45 PM
 #4

Regardless of Jim Rogers' history, my rationale for not getting into the US stock market at this point is that the prices are sky high and not justified by fundamentals, because:

- the market was hanging on to the hope of the Trump tax-cut coming true, after the hope of all other potential good news had been dashed.

- the market is largely supported by by companies borrowing money cheap and buying back their own stock, in an environment where the Fed is almost forced to keep raising rates.

To the credit of the elites, there are signs they are trying to deflate the bubble preemptively.  (This is all very similar to 1928-29 BTW!)  Though this is good policy, it's not a good sign for investors.  The elites certainly know a lot more than we do.  Either they succeed, in which case the prices should go down before they stabilize, or they fail, which means there will be a worse, market-driven crash down the road (and BTW the latter scenario must be why they try to deflate the bubble in the first place.)

Just about the only scenario that is short-to-medium term bullish for US stocks at these prices is that the elites succeed, in engineering a preemptive reset-by-inflation of the entire system (assuming they are pursuing this for this time frame, which is by no means certain.)  In that scenario, it's best just to hold cryptos anyway.
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April 30, 2018, 04:55:12 PM
 #5

Stock markets have been going good the last couple of years, so a correction is definitely possible, but the only question is when the correction will happen? It can be next month, next year, ...
When the correction comes, I will be ready to pick up some stocks Grin

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April 30, 2018, 05:11:59 PM
 #6

I think we're in an era where there's pretty much nothing They won't do to keep the plates spinning. All diligence and strategic work towards economies that are actually healthy has gone out the window in the name of trying to keep things propped up right now.

With that in place I wouldn't really want to be making calls any more. It could be kept up for many more years.

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April 30, 2018, 05:55:00 PM
 #7

Jim Rodgers has been bearish on the stock market since the 1980s and how well has that prediction worked out?
Yep, in some meaning he was right. There were already several crises since that time. The key poing that the market crash (for example like the one we had back in 2008) are a result of accumulation of various negative things during the pretty large period of time and it usually blow up after the global market frenzy. Some stock investors say that untill you hear those warnings about the market bubble then this bubble is still on the half way till it blow up.
This time everything is pretty much the same. Stock market is bullish for several years in a row and this year is still supposed to be a bullish one. Many people will agree that bubble is forming on the stock market right now but no one can tell the exact date when it blow up.
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April 30, 2018, 06:24:29 PM
 #8

He is like a god who can know everything and manage everything. I just made it a preparation to be done. Still hold the crypto that I have for sale on the next increasing, and only hold a few percent if he is right. Worrying he'll be right, then I will not save much crypto next year and will be selling a lot on the next increasing. #cry
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May 02, 2018, 12:03:06 AM
 #9

I would be interested to know whether the userbase of gold and precious metals is growing or shrinking. Whenever I see someone with gold fever predicting the price of gold will rise, its typically someone who represents older age brackets. Gold and precious metals don't appear to have much support among younger generations. If all of this is true, it could suggest the price of gold will decline. Particularly if turkey and other nations experiencing economic turmoil decide to dump gold they repatriated from the united states.

The price of gold could also be vulnerable to strong manipulation similar to aluminum and steel. Years ago coca cola claimed that aluminum prices which factored into the price of their canning process were being manipulated by goldman sachs and other financial insitutions. There is a split of opinions on this topic and it is controversial. But it might be said that manipulation of aluminum prices aren't so different from what happens in gold markets given the tendency some have to take quantities of gold off the market or in turn adding quantities to move the price in one direction or another.

Gold lacking utility it can't be utilized for much. Goods and services often can't be bought with gold which limits its utility and in turn its price.

Recently however countries like china have proposed allowing free exchanges of gold for their native currency the yuan. Others like Erdogan have proposed a move back to a gold standard. Perhaps support for gold is in our future. Although it is also possible that turkey, china and other nations are only hyping gold to raise its price before they dump their gold holdings on the market.

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May 02, 2018, 12:15:16 AM
 #10

Gold and precious metals don't appear to have much support among younger generations.
You're probably right, but I haven't seen any data on that.  The thing is, older folks probably remember the time when the US was on the gold standard and still harbor some nostalgic but irrational feelings toward precious metals. 

I would say the market has probably for gold has probably shrunk since 2011, which was the end of the most recent gold bubble.  I think that scared a lot of investors off, and I'm sure at least some of them have discovered either stocks or crypto or both, because while both of those assets have been booming since 2011, gold has languished--silver, too. 

Warren Buffett nailed it when he described gold as something that doesn't have any earnings, doesn't pay dividends, and doesn't represent a business which employs people and produces goods.  It will just sit there in your bank safe and do nothing.  It doesn't even serve a purpose, except perhaps as material for jewelry and coins.

Also, even though gold has been sideways since 2011, that hasn't stopped the gold permabulls from hyping it.  Look at some of the linked articles on Coinflation.com, and you'll see the same hype over and over.  Gold is always poised to explode IF stocks crash, IF we go to war with N. Korea, IF the dollar implodes....it's always if these events happen, and that's how they appeal to people's emotions in order to sell you gold.  I don't buy it at all.

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May 02, 2018, 01:00:24 AM
 #11

Time to trade stock assets for crypto gains  Cool
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May 02, 2018, 02:58:03 AM
 #12

Stock markets have been going good the last couple of years, so a correction is definitely possible, but the only question is when the correction will happen? It can be next month, next year, ...
When the correction comes, I will be ready to pick up some stocks Grin
Most of the time the stock market does not suffer corrections it suffer crashes, however governments are doing everything they can to avoid anything that can resemble bad news to the markets, they are trying to maintain the status quo for as long as they can, so the next crisis is going to be very similar to the last one a black swan is going to appear out of nowhere that very few people are going to see coming and no one will stop.
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May 02, 2018, 03:45:15 AM
 #13

People who constantly predict economic collapse are tiresome, and it's very much a case of the boy who cried wolf.

Every market has ups and downs, so all predictions should be judged by how accurate they are in terms of date and magnitude, otherwise all predictions will become true eventually. People were expecting a stock market crash for years now, but instead it showed a great performance, so people who are constantly bearish are not a good source for investment advices. But the most interesting question is how would Bitcoin react to a crash - will it soar because it's usually viewed as a hedge, or would it fall together with stocks?

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May 02, 2018, 04:03:12 AM
 #14

I’ve been reading these kinds of predictions for years, yet the S&P500 keeps reaching ath after ath. At some point those predictions are going to be correct, that’s for sure, but I don’t care, I will keep putting money regularly in my S&P fund, averaging the cost.

Someone investing every month would get almost the same returns that the best investor in history, according to this study (in Spanish):

https://www.rankia.com/blog/etfs-pm/2353012-mejor-inversor-historia

This is because the best investor, while waiting for the lows to buy stays out of the market for long and misses money made during bounces, recoveries and expansions.

So, I don’t care about market crashes. I’ll just keep investing.
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May 02, 2018, 04:24:00 AM
 #15

Gold and precious metals don't appear to have much support among younger generations.
You're probably right, but I haven't seen any data on that.  The thing is, older folks probably remember the time when the US was on the gold standard and still harbor some nostalgic but irrational feelings toward precious metals. 
It interesting to see how Gold is viewed in the west versus how it is viewed in eastern countries like India. Here it's more of a necessity than just an interest. During marriages, considerable amount of gold is spent for jewellery for the bride as well as groom. It's similar to the diamond engagement ring trend in west on which you guys too spend a bomb.

Keeping this in mind, the demand for gold is always going to be there in eastern cultures. It's psychological and social requirement is so ingrained that even the poorest of the poor try to give away some form of gold during marriages. It is a study topic in itself that how much of this fetish for gold has kept generation of Indian poor trapped in a cycle of poverty as they spend their life's savings for pleasing the society. Even then, there are cases where brides get harassed, abused and at times killed because of the demand for more.
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May 02, 2018, 10:13:14 AM
 #16

Gold has been sleeping for a long time, and I feel like a lot of people have already forgotten the fact that it's still one of the safe havens that people will turn to in an economic downturn. There is also silver, which I feel like is definitely underappreciated as well at the moment.

After the gold rallies earlier on in this decade, gold prices have essentially stabilized and found a bottom, and is now moving sideways instead of having a particular direction in which it's moving at. That is a pretty good sign that it's preparing for a bull market.

Demand for gold as a store of value will come naturally, as more people realize how unreliable fiat is.

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May 02, 2018, 06:56:31 PM
 #17

Regardless of Jim Rogers' history, my rationale for not getting into the US stock market at this point is that the prices are sky high and not justified by fundamentals, because:

- the market was hanging on to the hope of the Trump tax-cut coming true, after the hope of all other potential good news had been dashed.

- the market is largely supported by by companies borrowing money cheap and buying back their own stock, in an environment where the Fed is almost forced to keep raising rates.

To the credit of the elites, there are signs they are trying to deflate the bubble preemptively.  (This is all very similar to 1928-29 BTW!)  Though this is good policy, it's not a good sign for investors.  The elites certainly know a lot more than we do.  Either they succeed, in which case the prices should go down before they stabilize, or they fail, which means there will be a worse, market-driven crash down the road (and BTW the latter scenario must be why they try to deflate the bubble in the first place.)

Just about the only scenario that is short-to-medium term bullish for US stocks at these prices is that the elites succeed, in engineering a preemptive reset-by-inflation of the entire system (assuming they are pursuing this for this time frame, which is by no means certain.)  In that scenario, it's best just to hold cryptos anyway.

I don't see the data backing you up on this. Price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 as of May 2018 is 24.17 on a trailing twelve month basis (graph below), which is pretty inline with the average for where we are in the business cycle. It is above the long term historical average, but a tad below the average since 1990 which stands at 24.43 (21.15 back to 1980), so prices are not "sky high" relative to the current era of earnings and especially considering that companies have only gotten more profitable since the tax cuts. The new tax savings will support continued capital returns to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in a rising interest rate environment, so debt will be less crucial for that and will mute the impact of rising interest rates.

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May 02, 2018, 07:28:47 PM
 #18

Jim Rodgers has been bearish on the stock market since the 1980s and how well has that prediction worked out? The stock market has been a tremendous engine for wealth accumulation over that time. People who constantly predict economic collapse are tiresome, and it's very much a case of the boy who cried wolf. Jim Rodgers isn't the worst of them, but because there are so many of them, his predictions can mostly be lumped in with them. The bearish sentiment on the stock market has to be viewed as a black mark, even though his own fund handily outperformed. Outperforming something doesn't make the other thing a bad investment. The stock market has been an excellent investment since the 1980s.
Damn!!! If that thing is true I think he will be right in the upcoming year or so, I mean almost 40 years and counting and still waiting for a bear market it would be anytime now, with the right mix of bad president and a new recession will hit, I think he will finally get it right forty plus years in the making. Hahaha but jokes aside, I think he got the wrong idea of investing, as he is more happy on a bull market rather than be happy to the "upcoming bear market", for serious investors we all know that real money is made in the bear market as this is when the saying goes "be greedy when others are fearful" come into play. With the "predicted" bear market coming I think it is better to take advantage of the cheap stock prices rather than be part of the panic.

But before we even come to that are there any real signs that a bear market is coming? or are there any real signs that a recession might even begin? Because what I am seeing is good, unemployment is not that big to make a crash and those who are unemployed have now found ways to make money online from blogging in Youtube to trading crypto which we can consider that they are earning something even if they are unemployed. Big companies as well as government projects are providing jobs to their locals. Looking at how money flow inside the pocket's people makes you think if there will be a bear market soon.

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May 02, 2018, 08:09:22 PM
 #19

But before we even come to that are there any real signs that a bear market is coming? or are there any real signs that a recession might even begin? Because what I am seeing is good, unemployment is not that big to make a crash and those who are unemployed have now found ways to make money online from blogging in Youtube to trading crypto which we can consider that they are earning something even if they are unemployed. Big companies as well as government projects are providing jobs to their locals. Looking at how money flow inside the pocket's people makes you think if there will be a bear market soon.

I'm not a graduate of any economic-related course, but I do know that day by day, inflation is doing its part at a rapid pace and the overall debt of the US alone is growing, with figures reaching a staggering $21-T currently. Sure the US can print more and more money as long as they wish, but the question is until when can it hold? Also, not all people are lucky enough to be a Youtube star or Instagram influencer or a crypto trader; do remember that there are hundreds of thousands of homeless people relying on meal stubs and the government to continue living. All in all, I think the world is already in a pretty bad shape, economic-wise. A steep correction in the stock markets might come sooner, but expect it to be a harsh one.




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May 02, 2018, 09:43:35 PM
 #20

O, yeah! Obviously a funny party is going to be soon. Look at the dollar index and it shows us immense growth of dollar and it means that investors is withdrawing money from stocks. It is the inception. Buy gold for long time investing.

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