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Author Topic: Jim Rogers: Before All This Is Over, Gold Is Going Through The Roof  (Read 173 times)
allthingsluxury
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April 30, 2018, 02:57:47 PM
 #1


Legendary investor Jim Rogers said enjoy the market rally while it lasts, issuing a dire warning that “the worst correction of his lifetime,” is coming for stocks.

“Soon something’s going to happen that will make everyone happy again and the market will go up one more time, and that will probably be the last hoorah. Next year will be not a lot of fun,” Rogers said in an interview with Kitco News on Monday.

He added, "It’s been ten years since we have had a bear market, that is very, very unusual so the next bear market is going to be the worst in my lifetime."

When promoted to quantify the correction, Rogers said it would easily be over 50%.



Click here to watch this video and to read more:

https://jimroger.blogspot.com/2018/04/jim-rogers-before-all-this-is-over-gold.html


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April 30, 2018, 04:10:35 PM
 #2

Jim Rodgers has been bearish on the stock market since the 1980s and how well has that prediction worked out? The stock market has been a tremendous engine for wealth accumulation over that time. People who constantly predict economic collapse are tiresome, and it's very much a case of the boy who cried wolf. Jim Rodgers isn't the worst of them, but because there are so many of them, his predictions can mostly be lumped in with them. The bearish sentiment on the stock market has to be viewed as a black mark, even though his own fund handily outperformed. Outperforming something doesn't make the other thing a bad investment. The stock market has been an excellent investment since the 1980s.
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April 30, 2018, 04:23:32 PM
 #3

Gold was $1660/ounce in year 2012, so gold should go back to $2100/ounce. When stock markets (DOW) went up from 19,000 to 26,000 under Donald Trump's Presidency how can the safest investment for next 50 to 100 years (gold) not reach it's all time high or new high price of $2,100/ounce.

Either the stock market crash of -20% will bring money to Gold or Gold is getting $18,000,000,000,000 after stock markets worldwide got the multi-trillion dollars since 2016
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April 30, 2018, 04:40:45 PM
 #4

Regardless of Jim Rogers' history, my rationale for not getting into the US stock market at this point is that the prices are sky high and not justified by fundamentals, because:

- the market was hanging on to the hope of the Trump tax-cut coming true, after the hope of all other potential good news had been dashed.

- the market is largely supported by by companies borrowing money cheap and buying back their own stock, in an environment where the Fed is almost forced to keep raising rates.

To the credit of the elites, there are signs they are trying to deflate the bubble preemptively.  (This is all very similar to 1928-29 BTW!)  Though this is good policy, it's not a good sign for investors.  The elites certainly know a lot more than we do.  Either they succeed, in which case the prices should go down before they stabilize, or they fail, which means there will be a worse, market-driven crash down the road (and BTW the latter scenario must be why they try to deflate the bubble in the first place.)

Just about the only scenario that is short-to-medium term bullish for US stocks at these prices is that the elites succeed, in engineering a preemptive reset-by-inflation of the entire system (assuming they are pursuing this for this time frame, which is by no means certain.)  In that scenario, it's best just to hold cryptos anyway.
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April 30, 2018, 04:55:12 PM
 #5

Stock markets have been going good the last couple of years, so a correction is definitely possible, but the only question is when the correction will happen? It can be next month, next year, ...
When the correction comes, I will be ready to pick up some stocks Grin

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April 30, 2018, 05:11:59 PM
 #6

I think we're in an era where there's pretty much nothing They won't do to keep the plates spinning. All diligence and strategic work towards economies that are actually healthy has gone out the window in the name of trying to keep things propped up right now.

With that in place I wouldn't really want to be making calls any more. It could be kept up for many more years.

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April 30, 2018, 05:55:00 PM
 #7

Jim Rodgers has been bearish on the stock market since the 1980s and how well has that prediction worked out?
Yep, in some meaning he was right. There were already several crises since that time. The key poing that the market crash (for example like the one we had back in 2008) are a result of accumulation of various negative things during the pretty large period of time and it usually blow up after the global market frenzy. Some stock investors say that untill you hear those warnings about the market bubble then this bubble is still on the half way till it blow up.
This time everything is pretty much the same. Stock market is bullish for several years in a row and this year is still supposed to be a bullish one. Many people will agree that bubble is forming on the stock market right now but no one can tell the exact date when it blow up.
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April 30, 2018, 06:24:29 PM
 #8

He is like a god who can know everything and manage everything. I just made it a preparation to be done. Still hold the crypto that I have for sale on the next increasing, and only hold a few percent if he is right. Worrying he'll be right, then I will not save much crypto next year and will be selling a lot on the next increasing. #cry
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May 02, 2018, 12:03:06 AM
 #9

I would be interested to know whether the userbase of gold and precious metals is growing or shrinking. Whenever I see someone with gold fever predicting the price of gold will rise, its typically someone who represents older age brackets. Gold and precious metals don't appear to have much support among younger generations. If all of this is true, it could suggest the price of gold will decline. Particularly if turkey and other nations experiencing economic turmoil decide to dump gold they repatriated from the united states.

The price of gold could also be vulnerable to strong manipulation similar to aluminum and steel. Years ago coca cola claimed that aluminum prices which factored into the price of their canning process were being manipulated by goldman sachs and other financial insitutions. There is a split of opinions on this topic and it is controversial. But it might be said that manipulation of aluminum prices aren't so different from what happens in gold markets given the tendency some have to take quantities of gold off the market or in turn adding quantities to move the price in one direction or another.

Gold lacking utility it can't be utilized for much. Goods and services often can't be bought with gold which limits its utility and in turn its price.

Recently however countries like china have proposed allowing free exchanges of gold for their native currency the yuan. Others like Erdogan have proposed a move back to a gold standard. Perhaps support for gold is in our future. Although it is also possible that turkey, china and other nations are only hyping gold to raise its price before they dump their gold holdings on the market.

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May 02, 2018, 12:15:16 AM
 #10

Gold and precious metals don't appear to have much support among younger generations.
You're probably right, but I haven't seen any data on that.  The thing is, older folks probably remember the time when the US was on the gold standard and still harbor some nostalgic but irrational feelings toward precious metals. 

I would say the market has probably for gold has probably shrunk since 2011, which was the end of the most recent gold bubble.  I think that scared a lot of investors off, and I'm sure at least some of them have discovered either stocks or crypto or both, because while both of those assets have been booming since 2011, gold has languished--silver, too. 

Warren Buffett nailed it when he described gold as something that doesn't have any earnings, doesn't pay dividends, and doesn't represent a business which employs people and produces goods.  It will just sit there in your bank safe and do nothing.  It doesn't even serve a purpose, except perhaps as material for jewelry and coins.

Also, even though gold has been sideways since 2011, that hasn't stopped the gold permabulls from hyping it.  Look at some of the linked articles on Coinflation.com, and you'll see the same hype over and over.  Gold is always poised to explode IF stocks crash, IF we go to war with N. Korea, IF the dollar implodes....it's always if these events happen, and that's how they appeal to people's emotions in order to sell you gold.  I don't buy it at all.

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May 02, 2018, 01:00:24 AM
 #11

Time to trade stock assets for crypto gains  Cool
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May 02, 2018, 02:58:03 AM
 #12

Stock markets have been going good the last couple of years, so a correction is definitely possible, but the only question is when the correction will happen? It can be next month, next year, ...
When the correction comes, I will be ready to pick up some stocks Grin
Most of the time the stock market does not suffer corrections it suffer crashes, however governments are doing everything they can to avoid anything that can resemble bad news to the markets, they are trying to maintain the status quo for as long as they can, so the next crisis is going to be very similar to the last one a black swan is going to appear out of nowhere that very few people are going to see coming and no one will stop.
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May 02, 2018, 03:45:15 AM
 #13

People who constantly predict economic collapse are tiresome, and it's very much a case of the boy who cried wolf.

Every market has ups and downs, so all predictions should be judged by how accurate they are in terms of date and magnitude, otherwise all predictions will become true eventually. People were expecting a stock market crash for years now, but instead it showed a great performance, so people who are constantly bearish are not a good source for investment advices. But the most interesting question is how would Bitcoin react to a crash - will it soar because it's usually viewed as a hedge, or would it fall together with stocks?

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May 02, 2018, 04:03:12 AM
 #14

I’ve been reading these kinds of predictions for years, yet the S&P500 keeps reaching ath after ath. At some point those predictions are going to be correct, that’s for sure, but I don’t care, I will keep putting money regularly in my S&P fund, averaging the cost.

Someone investing every month would get almost the same returns that the best investor in history, according to this study (in Spanish):

https://www.rankia.com/blog/etfs-pm/2353012-mejor-inversor-historia

This is because the best investor, while waiting for the lows to buy stays out of the market for long and misses money made during bounces, recoveries and expansions.

So, I don’t care about market crashes. I’ll just keep investing.
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May 02, 2018, 04:24:00 AM
 #15

Gold and precious metals don't appear to have much support among younger generations.
You're probably right, but I haven't seen any data on that.  The thing is, older folks probably remember the time when the US was on the gold standard and still harbor some nostalgic but irrational feelings toward precious metals. 
It interesting to see how Gold is viewed in the west versus how it is viewed in eastern countries like India. Here it's more of a necessity than just an interest. During marriages, considerable amount of gold is spent for jewellery for the bride as well as groom. It's similar to the diamond engagement ring trend in west on which you guys too spend a bomb.

Keeping this in mind, the demand for gold is always going to be there in eastern cultures. It's psychological and social requirement is so ingrained that even the poorest of the poor try to give away some form of gold during marriages. It is a study topic in itself that how much of this fetish for gold has kept generation of Indian poor trapped in a cycle of poverty as they spend their life's savings for pleasing the society. Even then, there are cases where brides get harassed, abused and at times killed because of the demand for more.
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May 02, 2018, 10:13:14 AM
 #16

Gold has been sleeping for a long time, and I feel like a lot of people have already forgotten the fact that it's still one of the safe havens that people will turn to in an economic downturn. There is also silver, which I feel like is definitely underappreciated as well at the moment.

After the gold rallies earlier on in this decade, gold prices have essentially stabilized and found a bottom, and is now moving sideways instead of having a particular direction in which it's moving at. That is a pretty good sign that it's preparing for a bull market.

Demand for gold as a store of value will come naturally, as more people realize how unreliable fiat is.

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May 02, 2018, 06:56:31 PM
 #17

Regardless of Jim Rogers' history, my rationale for not getting into the US stock market at this point is that the prices are sky high and not justified by fundamentals, because:

- the market was hanging on to the hope of the Trump tax-cut coming true, after the hope of all other potential good news had been dashed.

- the market is largely supported by by companies borrowing money cheap and buying back their own stock, in an environment where the Fed is almost forced to keep raising rates.

To the credit of the elites, there are signs they are trying to deflate the bubble preemptively.  (This is all very similar to 1928-29 BTW!)  Though this is good policy, it's not a good sign for investors.  The elites certainly know a lot more than we do.  Either they succeed, in which case the prices should go down before they stabilize, or they fail, which means there will be a worse, market-driven crash down the road (and BTW the latter scenario must be why they try to deflate the bubble in the first place.)

Just about the only scenario that is short-to-medium term bullish for US stocks at these prices is that the elites succeed, in engineering a preemptive reset-by-inflation of the entire system (assuming they are pursuing this for this time frame, which is by no means certain.)  In that scenario, it's best just to hold cryptos anyway.

I don't see the data backing you up on this. Price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 as of May 2018 is 24.17 on a trailing twelve month basis (graph below), which is pretty inline with the average for where we are in the business cycle. It is above the long term historical average, but a tad below the average since 1990 which stands at 24.43 (21.15 back to 1980), so prices are not "sky high" relative to the current era of earnings and especially considering that companies have only gotten more profitable since the tax cuts. The new tax savings will support continued capital returns to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in a rising interest rate environment, so debt will be less crucial for that and will mute the impact of rising interest rates.

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May 02, 2018, 07:28:47 PM
 #18

Jim Rodgers has been bearish on the stock market since the 1980s and how well has that prediction worked out? The stock market has been a tremendous engine for wealth accumulation over that time. People who constantly predict economic collapse are tiresome, and it's very much a case of the boy who cried wolf. Jim Rodgers isn't the worst of them, but because there are so many of them, his predictions can mostly be lumped in with them. The bearish sentiment on the stock market has to be viewed as a black mark, even though his own fund handily outperformed. Outperforming something doesn't make the other thing a bad investment. The stock market has been an excellent investment since the 1980s.
Damn!!! If that thing is true I think he will be right in the upcoming year or so, I mean almost 40 years and counting and still waiting for a bear market it would be anytime now, with the right mix of bad president and a new recession will hit, I think he will finally get it right forty plus years in the making. Hahaha but jokes aside, I think he got the wrong idea of investing, as he is more happy on a bull market rather than be happy to the "upcoming bear market", for serious investors we all know that real money is made in the bear market as this is when the saying goes "be greedy when others are fearful" come into play. With the "predicted" bear market coming I think it is better to take advantage of the cheap stock prices rather than be part of the panic.

But before we even come to that are there any real signs that a bear market is coming? or are there any real signs that a recession might even begin? Because what I am seeing is good, unemployment is not that big to make a crash and those who are unemployed have now found ways to make money online from blogging in Youtube to trading crypto which we can consider that they are earning something even if they are unemployed. Big companies as well as government projects are providing jobs to their locals. Looking at how money flow inside the pocket's people makes you think if there will be a bear market soon.

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May 02, 2018, 08:09:22 PM
 #19

But before we even come to that are there any real signs that a bear market is coming? or are there any real signs that a recession might even begin? Because what I am seeing is good, unemployment is not that big to make a crash and those who are unemployed have now found ways to make money online from blogging in Youtube to trading crypto which we can consider that they are earning something even if they are unemployed. Big companies as well as government projects are providing jobs to their locals. Looking at how money flow inside the pocket's people makes you think if there will be a bear market soon.

I'm not a graduate of any economic-related course, but I do know that day by day, inflation is doing its part at a rapid pace and the overall debt of the US alone is growing, with figures reaching a staggering $21-T currently. Sure the US can print more and more money as long as they wish, but the question is until when can it hold? Also, not all people are lucky enough to be a Youtube star or Instagram influencer or a crypto trader; do remember that there are hundreds of thousands of homeless people relying on meal stubs and the government to continue living. All in all, I think the world is already in a pretty bad shape, economic-wise. A steep correction in the stock markets might come sooner, but expect it to be a harsh one.




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May 02, 2018, 09:43:35 PM
 #20

O, yeah! Obviously a funny party is going to be soon. Look at the dollar index and it shows us immense growth of dollar and it means that investors is withdrawing money from stocks. It is the inception. Buy gold for long time investing.

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May 03, 2018, 02:58:51 AM
 #21

But before we even come to that are there any real signs that a bear market is coming? or are there any real signs that a recession might even begin? Because what I am seeing is good, unemployment is not that big to make a crash and those who are unemployed have now found ways to make money online from blogging in Youtube to trading crypto which we can consider that they are earning something even if they are unemployed. Big companies as well as government projects are providing jobs to their locals. Looking at how money flow inside the pocket's people makes you think if there will be a bear market soon.

I'm not a graduate of any economic-related course, but I do know that day by day, inflation is doing its part at a rapid pace and the overall debt of the US alone is growing, with figures reaching a staggering $21-T currently. Sure the US can print more and more money as long as they wish, but the question is until when can it hold? Also, not all people are lucky enough to be a Youtube star or Instagram influencer or a crypto trader; do remember that there are hundreds of thousands of homeless people relying on meal stubs and the government to continue living. All in all, I think the world is already in a pretty bad shape, economic-wise. A steep correction in the stock markets might come sooner, but expect it to be a harsh one.
Printing more money is never a solution to any debt crisis or it can even be the cause of inflation in the first place. The basic understanding is the more you supply your citizens with money the more it devalues the price of your own currency. So printing more money cannot be a solution to anything it has even caused hyperinflation to Zimbabwe where there money has no value at all they are forced to print higher numbered money, that is the reason why they have 100 trillion Zimbabwean dollar as banknotes in the first place.

Yes there are still a lot of homeless people living but how many of them actually owns a stock? or do they even have assets to affect or influence the stock market? I guess not, the harsh truth about it is the only ones who can potentially crash the market are the rich people and I don't think that they want to move in the bear market as well not unless they want to the next Warren Buffet or something.

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Sithara007
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May 03, 2018, 03:34:52 AM
 #22

The American stock indices have gone up by more than 50% during the last three years. Some of the smaller nations have seen even larger increases with their stock indices. So I would say that there are chances of a major correction occurring sometime soon. But IMO, it should be in the 20% to 25% range.
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May 03, 2018, 05:29:14 AM
 #23

Jim Rodgers has been bearish on the stock market since the 1980s and how well has that prediction worked out? The stock market has been a tremendous engine for wealth accumulation over that time. People who constantly predict economic collapse are tiresome, and it's very much a case of the boy who cried wolf. Jim Rodgers isn't the worst of them, but because there are so many of them, his predictions can mostly be lumped in with them. The bearish sentiment on the stock market has to be viewed as a black mark, even though his own fund handily outperformed. Outperforming something doesn't make the other thing a bad investment. The stock market has been an excellent investment since the 1980s.

This is an interesting point. About constantly predicting economic crash. Not many of those investors are on the top ten list. What I have found is that the top ten list is full of people who are either A) Critical yet optimistic, and B) sometimes very quiet about their successes. Not often you hear someone like Warren Buffett bad mouthing a bunch of companies or stocks.
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May 03, 2018, 07:34:53 AM
 #24

I would be interested to know whether the userbase of gold and precious metals is growing or shrinking. Whenever I see someone with gold fever predicting the price of gold will rise, its typically someone who represents older age brackets. Gold and precious metals don't appear to have much support among younger generations. If all of this is true, it could suggest the price of gold will decline. Particularly if turkey and other nations experiencing economic turmoil decide to dump gold they repatriated from the united states.

The price of gold could also be vulnerable to strong manipulation similar to aluminum and steel. Years ago coca cola claimed that aluminum prices which factored into the price of their canning process were being manipulated by goldman sachs and other financial insitutions. There is a split of opinions on this topic and it is controversial. But it might be said that manipulation of aluminum prices aren't so different from what happens in gold markets given the tendency some have to take quantities of gold off the market or in turn adding quantities to move the price in one direction or another.

Gold lacking utility it can't be utilized for much. Goods and services often can't be bought with gold which limits its utility and in turn its price.

Recently however countries like china have proposed allowing free exchanges of gold for their native currency the yuan. Others like Erdogan have proposed a move back to a gold standard. Perhaps support for gold is in our future. Although it is also possible that turkey, china and other nations are only hyping gold to raise its price before they dump their gold holdings on the market.

You're right. The situation of gold is very complex, because I believe that we're seeing its major function as a store of value diminish over time. Especially with more convenient alternatives such as bitcoin itself, which has a lot more support in younger generations.

And we all know that things with support in younger generations, will usually be the future.

I'm still not doubting the fact that precious metals are undervalued at the moment historically, inflation adjusted they are nowhere near the 1980s precious metal peak. Economic breakdown or not, I see real potential for gold and silver to make a huge run in the positive direction soon, although its long term utility is in question at the moment.
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May 03, 2018, 03:33:43 PM
 #25

Jim Rodgers has been bearish on the stock market since the 1980s and how well has that prediction worked out? The stock market has been a tremendous engine for wealth accumulation over that time. People who constantly predict economic collapse are tiresome, and it's very much a case of the boy who cried wolf. Jim Rodgers isn't the worst of them, but because there are so many of them, his predictions can mostly be lumped in with them. The bearish sentiment on the stock market has to be viewed as a black mark, even though his own fund handily outperformed. Outperforming something doesn't make the other thing a bad investment. The stock market has been an excellent investment since the 1980s.

This is an interesting point. About constantly predicting economic crash. Not many of those investors are on the top ten list. What I have found is that the top ten list is full of people who are either A) Critical yet optimistic, and B) sometimes very quiet about their successes. Not often you hear someone like Warren Buffett bad mouthing a bunch of companies or stocks.

That's because the stock market has been the largest driver of wealth creation in the modern American economy. You don't win betting against the stock market or the American economy for long periods of time. Rodgers seems to be a permabear, and while he has made a lot of money correctly betting against certain things at different points in time, he's been constantly bearish on the economy for the last 40 years, and if you were out of the market for that period of time because you were bearish on it, you would have missed an extraordinary wealth gain. $1000 invested in the S&P index in 1980 would be worth $24,000 today ($66,000 if you were reinvesting dividends the whole time). 24x (or 66x) your investment over a time period where someone has constantly been saying a crash is around the corner makes my point. Crashes happen, and sometimes Rodgers gets it right, but if you ignore that and stay invested for long periods of time, you get wealthier by investing in the American economy.
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May 03, 2018, 03:42:29 PM
 #26

It is nice to have and see such great wise guys as this. Thanks for sharring, I need to buy some glod now, huh. Indeed.
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May 03, 2018, 04:45:11 PM
 #27

Chinese central banks have purchased 1000 tonnes of Gold since 2010. Looks like there will be a BIG BUY in gold and silver.
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May 04, 2018, 01:55:52 AM
 #28

There are striking similarities, graphs of historical prices for gold and bitcoin. Not only are the basic oscillations identical, but several deep dips are repeated in the same place. And here you involuntarily think about it, or the universe really is one big fractal, or someone is using the gold price chart as a guide to managing the prices of crypto currency.
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May 04, 2018, 02:20:35 AM
 #29

Gold bugs are usually people who are into the "world financial collapse is here" conspiracy theories. They are like the people who are into the "Jesus is here, repent now" scams who want to make people scared to manipulate them.

Having that said, gold is a good investment but it will not go through the roof. That job is only for cryptocurrencies lol.
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May 08, 2018, 04:44:15 AM
 #30

Gold and precious metals don't appear to have much support among younger generations.
You're probably right, but I haven't seen any data on that.  The thing is, older folks probably remember the time when the US was on the gold standard and still harbor some nostalgic but irrational feelings toward precious metals. 
It interesting to see how Gold is viewed in the west versus how it is viewed in eastern countries like India. Here it's more of a necessity than just an interest. During marriages, considerable amount of gold is spent for jewellery for the bride as well as groom. It's similar to the diamond engagement ring trend in west on which you guys too spend a bomb.

Keeping this in mind, the demand for gold is always going to be there in eastern cultures. It's psychological and social requirement is so ingrained that even the poorest of the poor try to give away some form of gold during marriages. It is a study topic in itself that how much of this fetish for gold has kept generation of Indian poor trapped in a cycle of poverty as they spend their life's savings for pleasing the society. Even then, there are cases where brides get harassed, abused and at times killed because of the demand for more.

The views of gold are not the only a cultural thing, in the West there is disdain for gold because paper currency is one of the preferred method by the government to steal from their citizens, so is obvious that they have done everything they can to try to stop the use of gold as a currency, and yet gold is to consider a premium currency and it easy to see why because it has almost all the characteristics that you will like in a currency.
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May 11, 2018, 07:50:23 AM
 #31

Gold bugs are usually people who are into the "world financial collapse is here" conspiracy theories. They are like the people who are into the "Jesus is here, repent now" scams who want to make people scared to manipulate them. Having that said, gold is a good investment but it will not go through the roof. That job is only for cryptocurrencies lol.

Fake news/email alert from Bullionbypost

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May 11, 2018, 02:13:47 PM
 #32

Fake news/email alert from Bullionbypost



That is a well known and trusted bullion dealer.

Why is it fake news, not hard to verify the claim by just looking a gold price chart?


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June 07, 2018, 08:59:14 PM
Last edit: June 07, 2018, 09:20:20 PM by BobK71
 #33

Regardless of Jim Rogers' history, my rationale for not getting into the US stock market at this point is that the prices are sky high and not justified by fundamentals, because:

- the market was hanging on to the hope of the Trump tax-cut coming true, after the hope of all other potential good news had been dashed.

- the market is largely supported by by companies borrowing money cheap and buying back their own stock, in an environment where the Fed is almost forced to keep raising rates.

To the credit of the elites, there are signs they are trying to deflate the bubble preemptively.  (This is all very similar to 1928-29 BTW!)  Though this is good policy, it's not a good sign for investors.  The elites certainly know a lot more than we do.  Either they succeed, in which case the prices should go down before they stabilize, or they fail, which means there will be a worse, market-driven crash down the road (and BTW the latter scenario must be why they try to deflate the bubble in the first place.)

Just about the only scenario that is short-to-medium term bullish for US stocks at these prices is that the elites succeed, in engineering a preemptive reset-by-inflation of the entire system (assuming they are pursuing this for this time frame, which is by no means certain.)  In that scenario, it's best just to hold cryptos anyway.

I don't see the data backing you up on this. Price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 as of May 2018 is 24.17 on a trailing twelve month basis (graph below), which is pretty inline with the average for where we are in the business cycle. It is above the long term historical average, but a tad below the average since 1990 which stands at 24.43 (21.15 back to 1980), so prices are not "sky high" relative to the current era of earnings and especially considering that companies have only gotten more profitable since the tax cuts. The new tax savings will support continued capital returns to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in a rising interest rate environment, so debt will be less crucial for that and will mute the impact of rising interest rates.



My subjective conclusion that prices are 'sky high' is supported by my arguments lower down, which I hope you will address specifically, if possible.  I didn't bring up P/E ratios for the following reason:

I understand the value of quantitative analyses in a supporting role, but the overall judgment of any asset value in this world must be subjective.  Central banks are at the center of all asset values, and thus any bet on prices must, in the final analysis, be a judgment of whether a poker bluff will be successful.

Just like P/E ratios, you can bring up any number of arguments to say the prices will go up, or will go down.  What I try to bring up are major fundamental factors concerning what the top elites are doing.  If demand is fragile across the economy (due to a systemic debt overhang, for example,) the pricing power of firms becomes soft, and any comparison with past P/E values becomes suspect.

That is why, in situations like this, I prefer fundamental, qualitative analysis.
First77
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September 02, 2018, 03:32:56 PM
 #34

Gold has been sleeping for a long time, and I feel like a lot of people have already forgotten the fact that it's still one of the safe havens that people will turn to in an economic downturn. There is also silver, which I feel like is definitely underappreciated as well at the moment.After the gold rallies earlier on in this decade, gold prices have essentially stabilized and found a bottom, and is now moving sideways instead of having a particular direction in which it's moving at. That is a pretty good sign that it's preparing for a bull market. Demand for gold as a store of value will come naturally, as more people realize how unreliable fiat is.

China will make a BIG MOVE in Gold. Look like China Central banks will buy 500 tonnes Gold after all the trade wars started by Donald Trump.
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