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Author Topic: when should i sell a bitcoin?  (Read 1546 times)
BitcoinTraderFX
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November 27, 2013, 04:09:07 AM
 #21

@Anon. I thought Contrarian trading is a fundamental based trading. Based on economics of consumption and psychology.

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shmadz
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November 27, 2013, 04:21:05 AM
 #22

I sold coins at 200, don't do it!

You sold bitcoin for fiat. I think the OP wants to sell his bitcoin for litecoin. Completely different scenario.

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November 27, 2013, 04:25:15 AM
 #23

I sold coins at 200, don't do it!

You sold bitcoin for fiat. I think the OP wants to sell his bitcoin for litecoin. Completely different scenario.

ohh my bad read it wrong
shmadz
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November 27, 2013, 04:34:28 AM
 #24

I sold coins at 200, don't do it!

You sold bitcoin for fiat. I think the OP wants to sell his bitcoin for litecoin. Completely different scenario.

ohh my bad read it wrong

no worries! and cheers dude! hold on to your crypto!  Grin

"You have no moral right to rule us, nor do you possess any methods of enforcement that we have reason to fear." - John Perry Barlow, 1996
superkawaii
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November 27, 2013, 04:37:52 AM
 #25

yeah i am definetly a buy and hold guy , i actually bought 5 bitcoins when they were 100usd per and i plan on holding

the only reason want (need) to sell that one bitcoin is i dont see any other easy way to put fiat on btc-e

after buying the litcoins i plan on holding for a long time

@BitcoinTraderFX thanks for that it was an interesting read
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November 27, 2013, 05:40:00 AM
 #26

bitcoin is such an abstract cocnept, no one knows what the right price is for it.

That's not true.  PQ=MV.  That defines the fundamental value of bitcoin.  When price exceeds the present value of the future valuation, sell.  When it is inferior to the discounted future value, buy.  The only thing difficult to estimate is PQ.  But we can but certain floors under it.  PQ must include at least 500 bn USD2013 from Western Union and Moneygram international remittances alone.  It must also include at least half of the UN-estimated 2tn USD2012 global black market.  It is likely to also include a substantial portion of the hadwalla network traffic and at least 30% of the GDP of the 4 minor central asian republics (where remittances are about half of GDP).
I think it is safe to say that unless there is some unforseen disaster a minimum value of BTC is 20 years is 15000 USD2013.  Apply your preferred discounting curve to that, and you probably won't go too high.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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November 27, 2013, 05:57:36 AM
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bitcoin is such an abstract cocnept, no one knows what the right price is for it.

That's not true.  PQ=MV.  That defines the fundamental value of bitcoin.  When price exceeds the present value of the future valuation, sell.  When it is inferior to the discounted future value, buy.  The only thing difficult to estimate is PQ.  But we can but certain floors under it.  PQ must include at least 500 bn USD2013 from Western Union and Moneygram international remittances alone.  It must also include at least half of the UN-estimated 2tn USD2012 global black market.  It is likely to also include a substantial portion of the hadwalla network traffic and at least 30% of the GDP of the 4 minor central asian republics (where remittances are about half of GDP).
I think it is safe to say that unless there is some unforseen disaster a minimum value of BTC is 20 years is 15000 USD2013.  Apply your preferred discounting curve to that, and you probably won't go too high.


M= money supply, V= the velocity of money, P=prices, Q=quantity

how does this account for time? can you show me an example of you using this with actual data to make a prediction?

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