Ranking game: Please rank from most likely to least likely.

1) Barry Bonds type player hitting 250 home-runs in 664 Plate Appearances (He hit 73 in 664 PA in 2001)

Unsure

2) Your 70 year old grandma bowling 5 straight perfect 300 games (she has a 90 pin average, about 1 strike per game)

Unsure

3) All 16 games in an NFL week end in a tie. (about 1 in 256 are ties)

If 1 tie = 1:256, then 16 ties are 1:256

^{16} = 1:2

^{128}4) Finding a collision while generating 1 Trillion keys per second in the next 100 years.

1 trillionen (Americian English) = 1 000 000 000 000

100 Years = 100 x 365.25 x 86 400 = 3 155 760 000 seconds

1 000 000 000 000 x 3 155 760 000 = 3 155 760 000 000 000 000 000 total combinations (≈ 2

^{71.42})

Possible Bitcoin addresses: 2

^{160}Probability = 1 : (2

^{160} / 2

^{71.42}) ≈ 1 : 2

^{88.58} of finding the private key of an arbitrary address (finding the collision of

**any** used address raises the chances).

Summary:

3) 1:2

^{128}4) 1:2

^{88.58}4 is more probable than 3!