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Question: Regarding the block-size issue, your prediction for 2013...
Devs will massively increase the block capacity, thus breaking the market for transaction fees. Rogue miners leave Bitcoin forked and bleeding. - 4 (8.7%)
No consensus will be reached. Bitcoin will continue growing for now. Some time after 2013 it will saturate and reach maturity. - 19 (41.3%)
A clever new "dynamic" block mechanism allows miners to create artificial scarcity. Bitcoin grows to new levels of awesomeness. - 15 (32.6%)
Irrelevant. A superior Alt-coin will profit from BTC's mistakes - 3 (6.5%)
Bitcoin?! But aliens and meteorites and stuff! No Internet duh! - 3 (6.5%)
Other... plz explain in the comments... - 2 (4.3%)
Total Voters: 36

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Author Topic: [poll] Quick! Put more chewing gum in Bitcoin's Velocity lever!...  (Read 904 times)
blablahblah (OP)
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February 24, 2013, 12:09:49 PM
 #1

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"I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." -- Satoshi
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February 24, 2013, 06:44:31 PM
 #2

To be optimistic I'd say: "A consensus will be reached to leave the Blocksize as it is now and let Bitcoin reach maturity."
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February 24, 2013, 08:28:21 PM
 #3

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88208.0

Problem solved, no need to modify bitcoin proper.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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February 24, 2013, 10:16:39 PM
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You seem pretty sure that increasing the blocksize will kill Bitcoin - sure enough that you don't provide any poll option for it happening and not creating a catastrophe.

Any particular reason you feel that way?

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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February 24, 2013, 10:43:04 PM
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=88208.0

Problem solved, no need to modify bitcoin proper.

Ahh yup. We're talking about 2 completely different problems here. Things like the size of the whole block-chain, download times, propagation times for new blocks -- those technical challenges can all be readily solved/improved. But this thread alludes to an Economic feature built-in to Bitcoin. Namely, if nobody touches the design, and Bitcoin usage keeps growing, miners should (if they're smart enough Roll Eyes ) learn to manage Velocity and help dampen speculative bubbles and make the charts much less embarrassing.

It only dawned on me recently: one of the reasons the BTC exchange rate has always been so volatile is because there has been too much spare capacity in each block. This allowed small miners (less than 1% hashing power) to effectively break the market for transaction fees. Instead of working smartly to maximise profits, they just brutally accept as many transactions as possible, which cranks velocity up to 11, and leaves all the other miners stranded and unable to slow things down. Obviously the pools can try to adjust transaction rates... but they would only be able to influence very fast spikes and dips. All the longer trends would be firmly in the hands of... you guessed it: anyone reckless enough to fill up a whole block with free transactions.

Now that Bitcoin has grown so much that the spare capacity in each block is no longer "dangerously" big and exploitable by rogue miners... some people are talking about drastically increasing the block size, and some are suggesting making it dynamic but out of the hands of miners "because they can't be trusted". Roll Eyes

You seem pretty sure that increasing the blocksize will kill Bitcoin - sure enough that you don't provide any poll option for it happening and not creating a catastrophe.

Any particular reason you feel that way?

Hmm, I guess I should have been more objective and less driven by emotion when creating the poll. Does the above answer your question? (Can you tell that I'm a panic-buyer/seller? Cheesy )
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