Monday 8/8/2011 Judgement day for world stock market

[incraft3817]

SP500 raped the united states of Americacredit rating. Dow jones drop another 500 points. Good bye world. What do you guys think? Dow up or Dow down and how many points? Marketwatch stated that downgrade means nothing. I doubt it. Gonna be a bloody week next week. It's time to load up! "Be greedy when others are fearful." -Warren buffet

[1713554865]

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[The_JMiner]

SP500 raped the united states of Americacredit rating. Dow jones drop another 500 points. Good bye world. What do you guys think? Dow up or Dow down and how many points? Marketwatch stated that downgrade means nothing. I doubt it. Gonna be a bloody week next week. It's time to load up! "Be greedy when others are fearful." -Warren buffet

I may be wrong but I think this has already been priced into the market.  We might see a small dip but nothing compared to this past week.
Just my "prediction".

[cypherdoc]

SP500 raped the united states of Americacredit rating. Dow jones drop another 500 points. Good bye world. What do you guys think? Dow up or Dow down and how many points? Marketwatch stated that downgrade means nothing. I doubt it. Gonna be a bloody week next week. It's time to load up! "Be greedy when others are fearful." -Warren buffet

I may be wrong but I think this has already been priced into the market.  We might see a small dip but nothing compared to this past week.
Just my "prediction".

how can something thats never been done before and that has been threatened but never executed umpteen times be priced in?

[evoorhees]

Yeah I think most people understood academically that there was a "looming threat of downgrade sometime in the future." But that is very different than it actually happening!! I don't think many were expecting that, even though it was long overdue.

[GeniuSxBoY]

I knew it as soon as the debt bill passed

[Bigpiggy01]

Here in China peeps are looking forward to tomorrow. Or rather later today.

In Chinese numerology 8=$$$$$ so once everyone wakes up here it will be a very auspicious day from that point of view.

Plus about a gazillion peeps will get married  

[foggyb]

How can it be priced in? Timmy promised it would never happen. At least twice.

February 2010: "That will never happen to this country."
Here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_iSxuptvYY&feature=player_embedded#at=206


And here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7Z0L-NYFlE

[brocktice]

I know people in academic finance and they were saying a downgrade was expected even if a bill passed, 2+ weeks prior. It wasn't a sure thing but it wasn't exactly a surprise either.

[Bitcoin Swami]

Well Israel's stock market tanked so bad they had to stop trading today.  If anyone would have known of this downgrade beforehand I thought it would be the israeli's

[brocktice]

I think they are tanking because there's continued bad news, and the rating thing was a distraction. But I don't know anything for sure.

[CurbsideProphet]

I believe it was priced in to a certain degree.  I'm net short and believe the market will trend downwards, however, I do not believe Monday will be anything near "judgment day."  In fact, a relief rally is not out of the possibility.  Remember, there were talks about the US being downgraded to AA.  S&P downgraded to AA+.  So essentially if AA was priced in, AA+ is actually short-term bullish.  

Edit:  Middle Eastern markets open down around 5%.

[The_JMiner]

2 hours until markets open in Japan and we should have an answer as markets begin to open heading our way.

[johnyj]

One direct effect is that some of the pension funds/mutal funds have to sell US bonds due to they have a rule to only hold AAA rating securites

I have loaded quite some put options, but I think market will just seesaw until some voice come from FED on Tuesday

[cypherdoc]

I knew it as soon as the debt bill passed

why did u sell all your Bitcoins?

[CurbsideProphet]

One direct effect is that some of the pension funds/mutal funds have to sell US bonds due to they have a rule to only hold AAA rating securites

I have loaded quite some put options, but I think market will just seesaw until some voice come from FED on Tuesday

Or they change the rules. Fact is no one can replace the US in the debt market. There is no other alternatives. It's not like everyone can start buying AAA Canada the scale isn't there.

As I write this Asian markets down 1%  S&P futures down 1.5%.

[MatthewLM]

THis could be the beginning of a down trend in markets. There could be knock-on effects to this which will keep the markets going down. Remember that the economy is in bad shape so there was be good cause for markets to go down. The "recovery" was fake.

Maybe a good time to short stocks but I wont pass judgement on that.

[HappyFunnyFoo]

Dow futures point to a 150-200 point drop in the dow at the opening bell.  Over the next 3 months, though, expect U.S. markets to appreciate in value 25%, just like with Japan's 1998 debt downgrade from AAA to AA resulting in the Nikkei jumping 25-30%.

[Bimmerhead]

I'm a little unclear as to why the S&P downgrade is such a big deal.  It's not like people are unaware of the credit-worthiness of the USA and need to check with S&P to get the real scoop. 

If this was some newly minted country who never published economic data, or an obscure mid-sized manufacturing firm no one has ever heard of I can understand asking S&P for their opinion, but the American situation is no secret.

[cypherdoc]

Dow futures point to a 150-200 point drop in the dow at the opening bell.  Over the next 3 months, though, expect U.S. markets to appreciate in value 25%, just like with Japan's 1998 debt downgrade from AAA to AA resulting in the Nikkei jumping 25-30%.

you're quickly losing credibility.  stocks continue to crash and bitcoin rising.  sorry.

[BTC_Junkie]

S&P warned of a downgrade months ago... most investors assumed AA+ was best case scenario.

Moody's and Fitch both reaffirmed AAA ratings for now, so many funds could still consider Tbills AAA depending on who they use.