Rally from $500 happened on very low volume, crash looming?

[solex]

Thanks, I was just looking at the data and it seems.

• We've had about 14 hours of trading where the weighted average price was between $1100 and $1199.
• We've had 80 hours of trading where the weighted average was a price of $800-899
• We've had 180 hours of trading where the weighted average was between 200 and 300.

.

I'm not a statistician but I'm curious if the hours of trading at a particular price should be noted at all when looking at total volume for a certain price level?

You will see this pattern naturally with Bitcoin price ranges because it is growing exponentially:

Here are some price points with logarithms (× 8 for convenience):

Price  Log  Months
100   14.0   3
200   16.1   2.1
300   17.3   1.2
400   18.2   0.9
500   18.9   0.7
600   19.4   0.6
700   19.9   0.5
800   20.3   0.4
900   20.7   0.4
1000   21.0   0.3


So, let's say that bitcoin spent 3 months in the 100s.  It will only spend 2 months in the 200s and it will spend about 5 weeks in the 300s.

Next, it will spend 1 month in the 400s and 3 weeks at 500 and 600.  

Then it will spend less than 2 weeks each at 700 and 800 less than a week at 900.

So, yes, every $100 point will be faster than the last.  This is to be expected.  Not "OMG!  It's going too fast!  Crash imminent!  SELL SELL SELL."

[trace666]

While Bitstamp is an important part of the BTC market, it is just that.
To come to any conclusions here, we need to look at a bitter share of the total volume.
Here is an indication of the current distribution of BTC trading volume:

BTCChina	44%
MtGox (USD only)	16%
Bitstamp	14%
Other exchanges	26%

This is based on bitcoincharts.com data.

Wow, thank you, I did not know it had become so lopsided.

What is the date range for this?

This is a snapshot of today's (last 24h) volumes.

[trace666]

Overall volume is pretty high actually.
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaddfiaa

However the comparison is somewhat flawed because of the zero fee policy of BTCChina.

Yes, volume is driven to BTCChina because of this, but it is a reality that more BTC are traded there than at e.g. Bitstamp.

[accord01]

Thanks, I was just looking at the data and it seems.

• We've had about 14 hours of trading where the weighted average price was between $1100 and $1199.
• We've had 80 hours of trading where the weighted average was a price of $800-899
• We've had 180 hours of trading where the weighted average was between 200 and 300.

.

I'm not a statistician but I'm curious if the hours of trading at a particular price should be noted at all when looking at total volume for a certain price level?

That depends what you want to prove. I want to raise the awareness of the scenario that we have been going too far too fast, which means that odds are no longer wildly stacked on our favor (as usual), just reasonably stacked. Both the fact that we cross price levels quickly and that the volume is low, testify to the increased risk.

We are at 3.5x the exponential trendline just now. Iirc, the intraday bubble top in April was 4.3x. Especially worrisome thing is that not even one is analyzing these things with any scientific/mathematical fashion except me. The complacency has indeed reached the levels of April, where any newb thinks that he has become a genius by buying in 9 days before, and any cashout by older members is ridiculed.

Isn't this a logical fallacy?  This current run up is different than april in more aspects.  Am I right?

I think a crash is warranted if we hit $3k by Christmas.

[rpietila]

Here are some price points with logarithms (× 8 for convenience):

Price  Log  Months
100   14.0   3
200   16.1   2.1
300   17.3   1.2
400   18.2   0.9
500   18.9   0.7
600   19.4   0.6
700   19.9   0.5
800   20.3   0.4
900   20.7   0.4
1000   21.0   0.3


So, let's say that bitcoin spent 3 months in the 100s.  It will only spend 2 months in the 200s and it will spend about 5 weeks in the 300s.

Next, it will spend 1 month in the 400s and 3 weeks at 500 and 600.  

Then it will spend less than 2 weeks each at 700 and 800 less than a week at 900.

So, yes, every $100 point will be faster than the last.  This is to be expected.  Not "OMG!  It's going too fast!  Crash imminent!  SELL SELL SELL."

HAHAA  

It is not so simple. We also have to consider the fundamentals, fundalo-technicals (the long-term exponential chart), technicals, political and infrastructure situation, forum sentiment etc.

Forum sentiment has gone into full-blind territory (see altcoins for further proof).
Price is 3.5x long-term exponential trend (comp. $210 in April).
Long time no negative action from government (not good).


In my situation I would rather have a million of cash in the bank, a ton of silver in my vault, a castle, and more bitcoins than is the fair share of Estonia.  

That you ridicule me for actually doing something with my life and bitcoins, is a proof that you are blinded. Just wait  

You know what? My friend actually congratulated me   He thought I was doing good. What a jerk - not even mortgaged his dog for bitcoins.  

[rpietila]

Isn't this a logical fallacy?  This current run up is different than april in more aspects.  Am I right?

I think a crash is warranted if we hit $3k by Christmas.

You speak about logic.

1. In what aspects is the current runup different?

2. What data supports your prediction?

[GigaCoin]

Data used: Bitstamp's hourly volume weighted average historical trades Nov 1, 00:00 - Nov 30, 09:00.

Total volume during that period: BTC953,782.

Code:

price        volume     mid point    BTC      $m
$200-299     BTC215,619 $250.00   215619 $53.90
$300-399     BTC208,384 $350.00   208384 $72.93
$400-499     BTC135,057 $450.00   135057 $60.78
$500-599     BTC98,430  $550.00    98430 $54.14
$600-699     BTC86,344  $650.00    86344 $56.12
$700-799     BTC46,202  $750.00    46202 $34.65
$800-899     BTC73,779  $850.00    73779 $62.71
$900-999     BTC47,990  $950.00    47990 $45.59
$1000-1099   BTC36,849  $1050.00   36849 $38.69
$1100-1199   BTC5,127   $1150.00    5127  $5.90

During November, 59% of the trades (by BTC volume) happened at prices lower than $500. Conversely, only 9% happened on $900 or higher. The average price for all trades was $517.

As i stated in some earlier posts, i also believe we are overdue for a correction and the volume levels now confirm it. Not sure when, maybe we'll have a further surge before a correction.  Also too many people "praying" for the price to go higher.

Ofcourse as usual it only means great buying opportunity, especially for simple buy and hold investment.

[User705]

One the things that seem out of whack is the alt coins.  Who is buying namecoins for $10usd per and what for?

[rpietila]

One the things that seem out of whack is the alt coins.  Who is buying namecoins for $10usd per and what for?

This confirms that we are very near the top. Check LTC/BTC ratio in April!

[ElectricMucus]

Overall volume is pretty high actually.
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaddfiaa

However the comparison is somewhat flawed because of the zero fee policy of BTCChina.

Yes, volume is driven to BTCChina because of this, but it is a reality that more BTC are traded there than at e.g. Bitstamp.

I don't think so.
Look: http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaadfiaa
That says volume is higher by a factor of  2.5M/1.5M=1.67 and I think it's easy for the volume to be inflated by at least a factor of two with zero fees.

[RAJSALLIN]

I think rpietila is correct in his assessment of the current situation. In fact I'm willing to bet on it and in so I've sold 2% of my holdings today.

[accord01]

Isn't this a logical fallacy?  This current run up is different than april in more aspects.  Am I right?

I think a crash is warranted if we hit $3k by Christmas.

You speak about logic.

1. In what aspects is the current runup different?

2. What data supports your prediction?

1) the market has been put into a microscope by media, ie ny times forbes, bloomberg, etc, 2nd market

2) we are still at the 1/4 equivalent of the april run up imo.

[accord01]

I think rpietila is correct in his assessment of the current situation. In fact I'm willing to bet on it and in so I've sold 2% of my holdings today.

That was you that dropped it to 1136?

[elebit]

That you ridicule me for actually doing something with my life and bitcoins, is a proof that you are blinded. Just wait  

Mmmyeah... about that... Nobody did that.

What happened was that you sold at $900 and now you spend your time preaching doom and gloom.

I get it, I'm in the same boat (just an orders of magnitude smaller player of course). I did my own analysis and sold some at $900. Of course, I kick myself daily for that. At least I can admit I was wrong.

That's the thing, you never know. It could have been the right move at the time. We're all speculators in this sub forum. But it's dishonest to pretend help people. Yeah, right. Help your own investment trading would be more like it.

[Wary]

Current holders are unwilling to sell ... There will have to be a constant exponential increase of new money coming in ... , or a crash.

How crash can happen if nobody sells?

[rpietila]

Isn't this a logical fallacy?  This current run up is different than april in more aspects.  Am I right?

I think a crash is warranted if we hit $3k by Christmas.

You speak about logic.

1. In what aspects is the current runup different?

2. What data supports your prediction?

1) the market has been put into a microscope by media, ie ny times forbes, bloomberg, etc, 2nd market

2) we are still at the 1/4 equivalent of the april run up imo.

1. No big difference.

2. It is not an imo case, if data is available. In spring the top was 20.0x the previous base, now we are 17.6x.

1/4 would be 5x. If spring repeats itself, we will see $1,300 intraday. If base is calculated from $120, it is a different case, then it is $2400 and we are now half way through.

Have you any idea that I actually watch these charts several hours per day, and the reason for the posts is to distill the information for others to learn and act on?

[trace666]

Overall volume is pretty high actually.
http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaddfiaa

However the comparison is somewhat flawed because of the zero fee policy of BTCChina.

Yes, volume is driven to BTCChina because of this, but it is a reality that more BTC are traded there than at e.g. Bitstamp.

I don't think so.
Look: http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaadfiaa
That says volume is higher by a factor of  2.5M/1.5M=1.67 and I think it's easy for the volume to be inflated by at least a factor of two with zero fees.

Your chart proves my original point that Bitstamp is not "the market", that BTCChina is larger in volume than Bitstamp and that volume discussions based solely upon Bitstamp volumes are not indicative of the BTC market as a whole.

[accord01]

One the things that seem out of whack is the alt coins.  Who is buying namecoins for $10usd per and what for?

This confirms that we are very near the top. Check LTC/BTC ratio in April!

Because the ltc/btc ratio in April is similar to the current ltc/btc ratio, therefore we will have a crash similar to the april crash?  GREAT LOGIC!!!!

[/dev/null]

Just a reminder to one and all, before taking Rpietila too seriously. He had predicted a bitcoin valuation of several hundred thousand USD by the end of the year. That was during his manic phase, just before he was involuntarily hospitalized. He is now likely in a depressive phase of his bipolar affective disorder and things are therefore bound to look gloomy from his perspective. Or else he just wants to buy cheaper bitcoins... which is fine

[/dev/null]

OP deleted a users reply which i have posted above. lol