Using bitcoinrichlist to see when the big players prepare for selling

[kallekoll]

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100

The richest bitcoin address is at the time of writing worth 144,341 BTC or 162,958,687 USD. 21.62% of all bitcoins are today held in the top 100 addresses.

If we monitor these addresses, we could detect movement when these big players decide to do something, like moving coins from cold wallets to hot wallets before selling.

This way, we could know about a selloff before it's actually executed on an exchange.

For example: 1DWosvn7iEv6TUfCUXsmLqNVBZi9usEkex (worth 46000 BTC) recently moved all but 1600 of his coins. Where did he move them? If he moved them to some exchange, he might be preparing to sell.

Is there a way to know which addresses are linked to exchanges?

[PenAndPaper]

Most of these addresses are paper wallet and have zero activity.

[AstroBoy]

Look at last transaction...  all of them have some activity in the last week.

[qwerty555]

By switching to the top 500 address list there are a number of wallets with no activity since 2010 and 2011. The probability that these are LOST addresses is high as is the value.

Anyone want to work out the % of coins involved?

[kallekoll]

Most of these addresses are paper wallet and have zero activity.

They might be cold storage people use to keep their stash safe? Also as AstroBoy said, all of them had activity in the past week.

[botolo86]

By switching to the top 500 address list there are a number of wallets with no activity since 2010 and 2011. The probability that these are LOST addresses is high as is the value.

Anyone want to work out the % of coins involved?

This is very interesting on a theoretical point of view. What would you need to get the bitcoins in those wallets? Each address has a public and private key. Where is the public key published? Also, couldn't you just brute-force the discovery of the private key?

[kallekoll]

By switching to the top 500 address list there are a number of wallets with no activity since 2010 and 2011. The probability that these are LOST addresses is high as is the value.

Anyone want to work out the % of coins involved?

This is very interesting on a theoretical point of view. What would you need to get the bitcoins in those wallets? Each address has a public and private key. Where is the public key published? Also, couldn't you just brute-force the discovery of the private key?

As far as i know it's not feasible to bruteforce a wallet only having the address. Here is a stackexchange discussion on that topic

[Akka]

By switching to the top 500 address list there are a number of wallets with no activity since 2010 and 2011. The probability that these are LOST addresses is high as is the value.

Anyone want to work out the % of coins involved?

This is very interesting on a theoretical point of view. What would you need to get the bitcoins in those wallets? Each address has a public and private key. Where is the public key published? Also, couldn't you just brute-force the discovery of the private key?

If you could just do that, Bitcoin would be worthless.

Of course you can try...

[PenAndPaper]

So was there any activity during the latest crash/correction? Any activity that could have been used to move the price that is.

[beaconpcguru]

Useless method, sure you can watch them but very large holders still have hundreds of wallets with 100 btc a piece in them, which is a routine practiced frequently with large amounts.

[miken123]

By switching to the top 500 address list there are a number of wallets with no activity since 2010 and 2011. The probability that these are LOST addresses is high as is the value.

Anyone want to work out the % of coins involved?

This is very interesting on a theoretical point of view. What would you need to get the bitcoins in those wallets? Each address has a public and private key. Where is the public key published? Also, couldn't you just brute-force the discovery of the private key?

If you could just do that, Bitcoin would be worthless.

Of course you can try...

http://miguelmoreno.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/fYFBsqp.jpg

Does the person who made the image know that he or she failed to start counting at zero. Nice ball graphic. FAIL

[bryant.coleman]

By switching to the top 500 address list there are a number of wallets with no activity since 2010 and 2011. The probability that these are LOST addresses is high as is the value.

Anyone want to work out the % of coins involved?

That is disturbing.

I noticed one BTC wallet, which is not active ever since 2009! (198aMn6ZYAczwrE5NvNTUMyJ5qkfy4g3Hi)

This is the number of BTCs trapped in the top 500 wallets, by the year of last activity:

Year 2009: 1 wallet & 8,000 BTC
Year 2010: 10 wallets & 47,466.93 BTC
Year 2011: 104 wallets & 408,009.50 BTC

All together, 115 wallets with 463,476.43 BTC in them.

[qwerty555]

By switching to the top 500 address list there are a number of wallets with no activity since 2010 and 2011. The probability that these are LOST addresses is high as is the value.

Anyone want to work out the % of coins involved?

That is disturbing.

I noticed one BTC wallet, which is not active ever since 2009! (198aMn6ZYAczwrE5NvNTUMyJ5qkfy4g3Hi)

This is the number of BTCs trapped in the top 500 wallets, by the year of last activity:

Year 2009: 1 wallet & 8,000 BTC
Year 2010: 10 wallets & 47,466.93 BTC
Year 2011: 104 wallets & 408,009.50 BTC

All together, 115 wallets with 463,476.43 BTC in them.

GOOD JOB!  

Thats 12M divided by .463476=   5.5617% of bitcoin potentially dead in lost wallet addresses. Now add .5% a year (average loss of currency through death (sudden or otherwise) NOT including lost wallet addresses for other reasons and in 20 yrs from today 15% of bitcoins lost  40yrs 25% +   80 yrs 45% + approx. Here is one of bitcoins major flaws.. NO method of identifying and replacing lost coins which is unstable and potentially inflationary.


EDIT

Wrong maths
Revised % is actually 3.8%  ...... 12M divided by 463476 = 25.9..100 divided by 25.9 = 3.8% slightly lower but the principal is the same and does not count any losses from the other 11M wallets not in the Top 500 against the same number of coins.

[bryant.coleman]

Here is one of bitcoins major flaws.. NO method of identifying and replacing lost coins which is unstable and potentially inflationary.

Yes... one of the biggest flaws. We assume that the number of Bitcoins in circulation will slowly increase from 2009 to 2140 and that they will stabilize by 2140. If such large numbers of BTCs are "lost", then the currency will be extremely vulnerable to deflation.

Something should be done to maintain the total number of BTCs available.

[miken123]

Here is one of bitcoins major flaws.. NO method of identifying and replacing lost coins which is unstable and potentially inflationary.

Yes... one of the biggest flaws. We assume that the number of Bitcoins in circulation will slowly increase from 2009 to 2140 and that they will stabilize by 2140. If such large numbers of BTCs are "lost", then the currency will be extremely vulnerable to deflation.

Something should be done to maintain the total number of BTCs available.

What's so bad about deflation due to lost BTC?
It should be less of a problem as time goes on and people get more and more careful with their BTCs.
I guess over the long run at some point as time approaches infinity it would have to by defn kill he system..

[bryant.coleman]

What's so bad about deflation due to lost BTC?

It is bad. BTC is supposed to be an ideal currency, which is guarded against both inflation and deflation. We neither want inflation nor deflation. Both will do harm to the financial viability of the BTC.

It should be less of a problem as time goes on and people get more and more careful with their BTCs.
I guess over the long run at some point as time approaches infinity it would have to by defn kill he system..

To counter this problem, I propose a very simple solution. Once it is confirmed that over 10.00% of the BTCs are "lost", then the earliest 2% should be purged and put available to mine. That means that 420,000 BTCs will be available to be mined. This cycle can be repeated, to maintain the total number of available BTCs stable.

[PenAndPaper]

Thats 12M divided by .463476=   5.5617% of bitcoin potentially dead in lost wallet addresses. Now add .5% a year (average loss of currency through death (sudden or otherwise) NOT including lost wallet addresses for other reasons and in 20 yrs from today 15% of bitcoins lost  40yrs 25% +   80 yrs 45% + approx. Here is one of bitcoins major flaws.. NO method of identifying and replacing lost coins which is unstable and potentially inflationary.

As bitcoin value keeps on rising i don't think that this trend will continue. People were losing and forgetting about their coins back when they worth nothing. Today if you have 100 bitcoins normally you 'll have 100 different backups and failsafes in case that something happens to you

[jbreher]

To counter this problem, I propose a very simple solution. Once it is confirmed that over 10.00% of the BTCs are "lost", then the earliest 2% should be purged and put available to mine.

What you propose is simple theft. If I want to save my XBT, and bequeath them to my great-great-grandchilluns, it's none of your damnable bidnez.

[qwerty555]

To counter this problem, I propose a very simple solution. Once it is confirmed that over 10.00% of the BTCs are "lost", then the earliest 2% should be purged and put available to mine.

What you propose is simple theft. If I want to save my XBT, and bequeath them to my great-great-grandchilluns, it's none of your damnable bidnez.

The idea to purge the earliest 2% (or however many) needs refinement. As jbreher points out it could be in store for grandchildren (however unlikely after 10yrs inactivity)

A mechanism could be discussed to deal with that issue.

e.g more than 10 yrs inactivity 50% can be mined again  50% put in escrow for future claims.

In the UK there is a legal mechanism and rules for inactive Bank accounts after 15 yrs.Also,  Banks already got wise to the problem and now charge fees for inactivity (as early as 1yr) This effectively lets them take ALL the money over time.

http://www.moneysupermarket.com/savings/dormant-account-guide/

The comparison is not exactly the same as the total useable supply of fiat is not affected as it just goes somewhere else eventually. Unlike bitcoin where the total supply is affected if it can never be used (recovered/replaced) again

[jbreher]

e.g more than 10 yrs inactivity 50% can be mined again  50% put in escrow for future claims.

Perhaps I have not made myself clear. What you propose is simple theft. If I want to save my XBT, and bequeath them to my great-great-grandchildren, it's none of your damn business.