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Author Topic: Did anyone's technical analysis correctly call the drop from $13 to $5.75?  (Read 2089 times)
GoWest
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August 08, 2011, 03:01:35 AM
 #1

Nope.  No one did.  TA is a sham.

There were some people who called it without any solid reasoning other than a feeling, but no one was able to make the prediction based on technical analysis.  Why do we listen to these con-artists?

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JoelKatz
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August 08, 2011, 03:12:17 AM
 #2

TA is not intended to predict unique, low probability events. It's intended to predict what's likely to happen based on predictable interactions. Whether that makes TA valuable or worthless is another question.

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GoWest
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August 08, 2011, 03:13:02 AM
 #3

TA is not intended to predict unique, low probability events. It's intended to predict what's likely to happen based on predictable interactions. Whether that makes TA valuable or worthless is another question.

Sounds pointless to me.

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August 08, 2011, 03:18:13 AM
 #4

TA?

Also, I read many good threads that speculated that the price would float up when it hit it's natural floor.  Speculation was general towards a dollar but ranged in most cases to six dollars.  Nobody could estimate how many investors involved with the speculation bubble were serious about adopting bitcoin, or how many would lose faith in the BTC.

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August 08, 2011, 04:05:02 AM
 #5

I've been saying to expect a "long, slow slide" since the bubble popped.



It looks like we're returning to the slide trend.  There was a two week period of stability in mid-July followed by a big drop, adding up to the expected long, slow slide. All upward moves were brief, no more than a day or two.  Figure on a decline of about 30% a month.
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August 08, 2011, 04:13:47 AM
 #6

I did via non-technical analysis https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=34978.0

And we're back up to nearly 8 again

Here's more of my non-technical analysis: plateau at 4-5$ USD by the middle to end of next week.

Code:
XMR: 44GBHzv6ZyQdJkjqZje6KLZ3xSyN1hBSFAnLP6EAqJtCRVzMzZmeXTC2AHKDS9aEDTRKmo6a6o9r9j86pYfhCWDkKjbtcns
BitcoinStars.com
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August 08, 2011, 04:15:52 AM
 #7

That chart has held up decent considering the nonstop weekly news imo
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August 08, 2011, 11:15:53 AM
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yeah mine did, I sold when it was around 14 and never looked back

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August 08, 2011, 11:30:25 AM
 #9

we outlined in our subscriber newsletters that "a break below the meak or break trendline (running between 12.3-12.5 ee expect a drop to 5 - 5.8.

5.74 was the low then.

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cloon
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August 08, 2011, 11:35:43 AM
 #10

we outlined in our subscriber newsletters that "a break below the meak or break trendline (running between 12.3-12.5 ee expect a drop to 5 - 5.8.

5.74 was the low then.


senseless, if you tell us afterwards...
tell before or shut up please
thx

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proudhon
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August 08, 2011, 11:52:23 AM
 #11

we outlined in our subscriber newsletters that "a break below the meak or break trendline (running between 12.3-12.5 ee expect a drop to 5 - 5.8.

5.74 was the low then.


senseless, if you tell us afterwards...
tell before or shut up please
thx

He told the subscribers before.
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August 08, 2011, 11:54:41 AM
 #12

cloon spend 5BTC for the subscription and know beforehand. i.e. subscribe or shut up please Smiley

i am satoshi
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August 08, 2011, 12:01:15 PM
 #13

we outlined in our subscriber newsletters that "a break below the meak or break trendline (running between 12.3-12.5 ee expect a drop to 5 - 5.8.

5.74 was the low then.

So your wealthy subscribers accelerated the panic by reading into your prophecy? (Not complaining, the more panicers wiped out the better.)
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August 08, 2011, 12:06:23 PM
 #14

we outlined in our subscriber newsletters that "a break below the meak or break trendline (running between 12.3-12.5 ee expect a drop to 5 - 5.8.

5.74 was the low then.

So your wealthy subscribers accelerated the panic by reading into your prophecy? (Not complaining, the more panicers wiped out the better.)

No, if they followed his recommendations, they sold at 12, bought at 5 and more than doubled their money. 

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August 08, 2011, 12:54:37 PM
 #15

It's not that TA is a sham, but that there are too many unpredictable variables:

1) Someone steals 75,000 btc from mybitcoin and takes the market for a ride. (replace with mtgox getting hacked, allinvain getting robbed, etc)

2) An early adopter just got his driver's licence and really, REALLY, wants to go and buy that Porsche.

3) Satoshi doesn't like the way in which Wall Street speculators are flooding into the btc market and decides to use one tenth of his holdings to send it into a downward spiral.

Add dark pools, back-deals and a few other goodies and you'll soon realise any kind of predictive analysis will go out the window... except for a monkey with a ouija board :-)
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August 08, 2011, 01:15:46 PM
 #16

we outlined in our subscriber newsletters that "a break below the meak or break trendline (running between 12.3-12.5 ee expect a drop to 5 - 5.8.

5.74 was the low then.


senseless, if you tell us afterwards...
tell before or shut up please
thx

Cloon, that was public information on 3 August. I donated 5% of my gains to S3052. Chodpaba also predicted the drop, although only after the price was dropping from $10 on the 6th.

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Vandroiy
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August 08, 2011, 02:05:10 PM
 #17

For the last time (hopefully):

If someone can predict the expectation value of price, he will NOT tell others about it, but get insanely rich instead by trading himself. Technical analysis is for risk management, it is NOT a magical tool for infinite money! There is usually no simple, well-known way to get rich, duh!

This should be common sense really.
cloon
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August 08, 2011, 02:34:08 PM
 #18

I know the thing about the Subscribers, but there's no sense telling after, that his prediction was true... i know he's one of the best on this forum, i respect his theories!

i only dont like "i told you so"   Cheesy

i can also tell: "I bought at 6.2, exactly how my personal analysis resolved and it was right!" and you'll not care Wink

thx for you understanding

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netrin
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August 08, 2011, 02:46:10 PM
 #19

do you read these forums or just post? Scroll up, there have been numerous people who predicted for FREE days in advance. Sure others predicted badly. Ultimately, you play at your own risk!

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defxor
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August 08, 2011, 04:52:00 PM
 #20

Nope.  No one did.  TA is a sham.

There were some people who called it without any solid reasoning other than a feeling, but no one was able to make the prediction based on technical analysis.  Why do we listen to these con-artists?

(Not directed at you)

Why? Read the book Animal Spirits

Sham? Yes, read the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street

People who believe in TA have failed all statistics classes they've ever been in, if they've taken any.
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