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Author Topic: Economic Devastation  (Read 503951 times)
RealBitcoin
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February 08, 2016, 01:51:18 PM
 #2421

I highly doubt this is the case and in general. I suspect you overly generalized (and jump to conclusions) this one like many other comments you make. Since I do not know exactly what affects the 801k or whatever they call it in the states I cant comment on it but I do remember they went down ship when the market took a nosedive and many retirees were forced to work, it wasnt because of hedge funds stealing wealth.

I bet those same funds are doimg well right now.

Well then think about it again, it's nothing overgeneralization when it comes to greedy banks.

First of all most of the pensions are invested in the global bond market, so that is already a big red flag. Once the 30 year old bond uptrend goes south, many pension cuts will come, and folks will lose their pension savings.

Then we know that pension funds, private funds guaranteed, to work with banks to provide them an investment platform.

Many big private pension funds admitted that they traded with the banks too, and what they didnt admit is that the funds take over losing trades from banks.

Now the same could happen with public funds, aside from corupt politicians looting it, banks loot them too. For example in many countries the pension fund is also used to give out loans to corps, if they default, your pension is lost, that simple.


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February 08, 2016, 05:19:46 PM
 #2422

...

EUROPE got "devastated" today, their stocks crushed.  European banks were very weak, especially Deutsche Bank.  GREECE seems to "be back", how did we forget about Greece?

US stocks getting crushed.

US and German bond yields going way down (meaning value of their bonds going way up).

"Devastation" may be the word of the week.
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February 09, 2016, 09:18:49 PM
Last edit: February 10, 2016, 05:31:51 AM by TPTB_need_war
 #2423

r0ach stated he is concerned about an insufficient supply of suitable farmland, and the information I linked to pointed out that we can grow food at 10X or more higher densities (on a yield basis) and without pesticides. Note this can be done at scale so not every person has to do it.

It was actually a more complex idea than that.  As long as there's abundant sea life and natural wild life (which in the context of humans are basically...resources), then you have the ability to "opt-out" of whatever system tyrannical humans establish.  Smooth seems to imply that all of civilization needs to be vertically integrated for maximum efficiency, and it doesn't matter if all the oceans are empty, food is entirely synthetic in a complex chain of labor custody, and every inch of land is covered with concrete.  In that instance, there is no opting out of anything, and you are in fact a permanent slave.

Outcomes like this are more likely to occur the higher both population and/or technology increases, and claiming anyone who identifies this fact is a "Malthusian" is ridiculous.  You will eventually not be able to opt out of anything, which is why people like Ted Kaczynski are not actually crazy.

Then go back to era before antibiotics and deal with the Blubonic Plague and other nasties.

The free resources life wasn't that good. Lifespan was very short. There was no electricity, etc.

Why are you on a technology forum? I think you want the Cave Man Hasn't Discovered Fire discussion and doesn't have a suitable weapon to fend off lions.

I don't know why you think the land with be concreted. The current trend is to further concentration of the population in the cities and abandon the rural areas. This should become more so when intensive agriculture can replace farmlands and as slower internet speeds of rural areas renders them uneconomic to habitat. There will be no shortage of land for those who want to go back to the simple life (and be very poor and have nothing to or able to trade to the mainstream economy which will be very interactive requiring fast internet).



Why are you on a technology forum? I think you want the Cave Man Hasn't Discovered Fire discussion and doesn't have a suitable weapon to fend off lions.

Bitcoin is a supposed solution to a monopolization problem.  Even if Bitcoin worked flawlessly, what I just talked about above is the real monopolization gorilla in the room that dwarfs it.  Like I said, even with a perfectly functioning Bitcoin that scales to infinity, it would be worthless if you're unable to opt out of a monolithic civilization at all.

You have conceptualized the problem incorrectly. Refer to the Economic Devastation thread in the Economics forum. This thread it the wrong place to discuss it.

In short (and please reply on the other thread), maximum division-of-labor (specialization) is a problem when Coase's Theory of the Firm is in control. But we solve this by lowering transactional costs between specialists, so the capitalists can't parasite via the Corporation.

It is a more complex discussion than we should have in this thread.

I am sad to see you are so pessimistic. I'd like to help you see the light (if I had more free time). I need to busy coding instead.

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February 10, 2016, 01:05:31 AM
 #2424

Have to highlight this article from ZeroHedge. Sounds like a very familiar thesis  Cheesy

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-09/if-knowledge-power-it-also-wealth

Quote
Let's consider a syllogism: Knowledge is power, power equals wealth, so knowledge equals wealth.

Is this true? Author George Gilder thinks so. His book Knowledge and Power: The Information Theory of Capitalism and How it is Revolutionizing our World, proposes that (in Bill Bonner's apt phrase) "the economy is fundamentally a learning system, not a way for distributing wealth."

In Gilder's view, new information (i.e. knowledge) enables us to do things better, i.e. increase productivity. New knowledge is what creates value.

...
 
The cronies want to stop him, before he undermines the value of their old assets and old business models with new information. The zombies want to drag him down, leeching on him so greedily that he runs out of energy."
Gilder views vested interests limiting new knowledge as the real threat to the economy. This is the danger of "regulatory capture," when vested interests bribe the state (government) to erect barriers to competition to maintain monopolies and rentier privileges.

...

As Michael Spence and co-authors Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson observed in their 2014 essay, Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy, neither capital nor labor have scarcity value in the age of automation and nearly-free credit.“Fortune will instead favor a third group: those who can innovate and create new products, services, and business models.”

Value in the knowledge economy is not distributed equally. The return on abundant human labor and capital are very low, while the scarcity of skills and knowledge that create new products, services, and business models drives most of the gains to the creative class: “The distribution of income for this creative class typically takes the form of a power law, with a small number of winners capturing most of the rewards. In the future, ideas will be the real scarce inputs in the world -- scarcer than both labor and capital -- and the few who provide good ideas will reap huge rewards.”


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February 14, 2016, 09:34:15 AM
 #2425

4. Most fundamentally to Synereo's design is I don't see how Greg's math model for the attention model (Reo & AMPs impacts) can be enforced on all nodes. I admit I didn't dig into the math and research he cites in the 56 page white paper (I do sort of understand it conceptually), but i think I don't need to because there is no way to enforce that all nodes will run the same math model. Additionally I think the concept of paying with AMPs to force content to move uphill against Reo is the wrong model, because the value of advertising is orders-of-magnitude smaller than the value that users get out of social networks. Thus the only model that makes economic sense is Reo. Removing AMPs of course destroys Synereo's funding and profit model, so would kill the project. Thus I don't expect them to adopt a corrected design.

Can you elaborate on the bolded part of your statement?

Go back to the prior Synereo thread I linked to and find the link that shows how much download music pays per play funded by advertising. You can see that "Don't Worry, Be Happy" with 30 million plays earned a $1000 in payouts. Certainly the value people get out of the music is worth much more than the advertising and this is apparently why free music distribution sites such as SoundCloud is transitioning away from advertising model towards a subscription and track sales model a la Spotify and BandCamp.

What people want to find on social networks is what other people want to share. They don't want to find what people were motivated to pay to spam them with. The Knowledge Age economy will be about quality of production, not salesmanship.

The entire paradigm of commerce and production is changing to one of merit and social benefit.

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February 18, 2016, 09:10:16 AM
Last edit: February 21, 2016, 06:04:08 PM by TPTB_need_war
 #2426

Until now, all crypto coins have been marketed to investors.

The steady addition of a constant of amount of new coins is analogous to gold miners expending resources to add gold to circulation.

Once a predetermined number of coins have entered circulation, the incentive can transition entirely to transaction fees and be completely inflation free.

Bitcoin the better gold.  Roll Eyes

Word.

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February 20, 2016, 08:19:05 AM
 #2427

I highly doubt this is the case and in general. I suspect you overly generalized (and jump to conclusions) this one like many other comments you make. Since I do not know exactly what affects the 801k or whatever they call it in the states I cant comment on it but I do remember they went down ship when the market took a nosedive and many retirees were forced to work, it wasnt because of hedge funds stealing wealth.

I bet those same funds are doimg well right now.

Well then think about it again, it's nothing overgeneralization when it comes to greedy banks.

First of all most of the pensions are invested in the global bond market, so that is already a big red flag. Once the 30 year old bond uptrend goes south, many pension cuts will come, and folks will lose their pension savings.

Then we know that pension funds, private funds guaranteed, to work with banks to provide them an investment platform.

Many big private pension funds admitted that they traded with the banks too, and what they didnt admit is that the funds take over losing trades from banks.

Now the same could happen with public funds, aside from corupt politicians looting it, banks loot them too. For example in many countries the pension fund is also used to give out loans to corps, if they default, your pension is lost, that simple.


Are you making everything up as you go or do you have sources to back your wild claims?
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February 20, 2016, 10:08:39 AM
 #2428

I highly doubt this is the case and in general. I suspect you overly generalized (and jump to conclusions) this one like many other comments you make. Since I do not know exactly what affects the 801k or whatever they call it in the states I cant comment on it but I do remember they went down ship when the market took a nosedive and many retirees were forced to work, it wasnt because of hedge funds stealing wealth.

I bet those same funds are doimg well right now.

Well then think about it again, it's nothing overgeneralization when it comes to greedy banks.

First of all most of the pensions are invested in the global bond market, so that is already a big red flag. Once the 30 year old bond uptrend goes south, many pension cuts will come, and folks will lose their pension savings.

Then we know that pension funds, private funds guaranteed, to work with banks to provide them an investment platform.

Many big private pension funds admitted that they traded with the banks too, and what they didnt admit is that the funds take over losing trades from banks.

Now the same could happen with public funds, aside from corupt politicians looting it, banks loot them too. For example in many countries the pension fund is also used to give out loans to corps, if they default, your pension is lost, that simple.


Are you making everything up as you go or do you have sources to back your wild claims?

Read zerohedge only for 1 week and you will see what I`m talking about. They have plenty of sources.

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February 20, 2016, 11:09:18 PM
 #2429

I highly doubt this is the case and in general. I suspect you overly generalized (and jump to conclusions) this one like many other comments you make. Since I do not know exactly what affects the 801k or whatever they call it in the states I cant comment on it but I do remember they went down ship when the market took a nosedive and many retirees were forced to work, it wasnt because of hedge funds stealing wealth.

I bet those same funds are doimg well right now.

Well then think about it again, it's nothing overgeneralization when it comes to greedy banks.

First of all most of the pensions are invested in the global bond market, so that is already a big red flag. Once the 30 year old bond uptrend goes south, many pension cuts will come, and folks will lose their pension savings.

Then we know that pension funds, private funds guaranteed, to work with banks to provide them an investment platform.

Many big private pension funds admitted that they traded with the banks too, and what they didnt admit is that the funds take over losing trades from banks.

Now the same could happen with public funds, aside from corupt politicians looting it, banks loot them too. For example in many countries the pension fund is also used to give out loans to corps, if they default, your pension is lost, that simple.


Are you making everything up as you go or do you have sources to back your wild claims?

Read zerohedge only for 1 week and you will see what I`m talking about. They have plenty of sources.
Not the best source, they are always conspiracy minded.. Sometimes they have nice articles but over the years ive learned to take them with a grain of salt.
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February 21, 2016, 08:25:12 AM
 #2430


Not the best source, they are always conspiracy minded.. Sometimes they have nice articles but over the years ive learned to take them with a grain of salt.

Alright, then take it step by step.

Which part you dont believe? That pension funds are used to give out loans and buy treasuries? Thats obvious.


Why do you think it matters if Lehman Brothers goes bankrupt? Why do we care? Sure some investors and depositors (mainly the asset management sector of the bank where they managed rich peoples money) gets wiped.

But that overall doesnt seems like a catastrophe, sure it hits a few rich people and they lose their wealth, but that is not exactly an ECONOMIC DEVASTATION?

The real shit happens, when they default on their obligations towards other asset managers, namely big pension funds.


So a bank that big with high credit rating probably took out huge chunks of loans from many pension funds equities, since they had big credit rating the PF just give out huge % loans from their equity. Once they collapse, they lose millions of people's savings.

All it takes is 1 major bank to collapse with their pension fund loans, and your grandpa will be on the streets begging for bread and water.

Its that easy to wipe out the entire pension system.

Next one in line: Deutsche Bank @ nice european pensions getting wiped out  + Now the global treasury market is also on the verge of collapsing, so the other half of the pension system is also going to get wiped out.

The fantastic pensions of 2000-3000 euro that some wealthy EU contries enjoyed for the past years will soon become 10 euro + 1 bread+ 1 bottle of water pretty soon....

You will see many old folks begging on the streets with a cup, like in Greece.

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February 22, 2016, 08:56:11 PM
Last edit: February 26, 2016, 07:33:25 AM by CoinCube
 #2431

For those who have found this thread interesting.I have started another thread in the Politics and Society section titled

Atheism is Poison

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February 26, 2016, 07:27:29 AM
 #2432

For those who have found this thread interesting.I have started another thread in the Politics and Society section titled

Athiesm is Poison

My first post over there:

Mormons may also have some immunity the detrimental effect IQ on of fertility. In the general population increasing income (highly correlated with IQ) is associated with both declining fertility and declining religious commitment. In Mormons the reverse is true. Mormon fertility is positively correlated with income and Mormons with higher levels of formal education tend to be more religiously committed.

On multiple religious measures Mormons stand out for having exceptionally high levels of religious commitment. More than nine-in-ten Mormons report a belief in God and that the Bible is the word of God. Mormons are also very observant in their religious practices with more than eight-in-ten praying daily. Mormons strongly support a strict interpretation of their faith and the preservation of traditional beliefs and practices.

Are these demographic differences actually due to the Mormon religion? How can we be confident these are not just population level differences that happen to correlate with religion? To better answer that lets examine the Jews.

Didn't have a chance to digest it all yet, but what immediately pops out for me is that men may be (unconsciously) using religion to keep the women focus in child bearing which would not normally the case in a more liberated affluent society. I think you wrote before in the Economic Devastation thread about how society is a balance between preventing people from doing actions that opt-out and harm the collective well-being balanced against the society becoming too totalitarian and imploding.

So it seems religion forces all parties to subject their free-will such that the balance is maintained.

Religion also has failure modes though such as the Spanish Inquisition, although one might argue those are extreme cults that have not stabilized as the Jews apparently have over 1000s of years.

What high IQ people miss is apparently that God doesn't have to be a factual truth in order for religion to be an optimum strategy for society. Thus they aren't as high IQ as they think they are, haha.

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February 26, 2016, 03:04:09 PM
 #2433

Religion isnt about force, its on a different tangent of belief.  Apparently its a common flaw of humanity that we do believe in something greater then ourselves.   Athiest continue with this but look for more logical requirements via science maybe or some go to more exotic religions or worship mother earth and take up protecting the earth as their greater good as there is no doubt that natural system far outweighs any individual where as a 'virtual god' requires pure belief by most peoples reasoning.
   Im not sure its about IQ, I'd say its choice and preference about which does most good for society but also the indivual who requires this component in their life for some kind of balance. Mindless anarchists dedicated to nothing above themselves are surprisingly rare, I'd say hedonists are more probable

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February 26, 2016, 03:35:04 PM
 #2434

I think it is really crucial to note that aminorex and I are not debating whether some are better leaders and organizers than others, but rather whether time preference can be predicted perfectly (i.e. without friction a.k.a. with a priori omniscience).

So I am not envisioning a world where every person is their own boss. No. I am envisioning a world where leaders have to weigh the cost of time into their time preference decisions.
I am talking about reality. Aminorex is talking about delusions (e.g. Communism) where something (e.g. diversity) that isn't free of cost is assumed to be free of cost.
One thing Jason Hommel taught me is you can't give away for free that which is not free.
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February 26, 2016, 11:48:45 PM
 #2435

Government and socialism is a religion too, but it also has failure modes:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-socialist-lie-that-we-have-had-always-a-growth-economy-since-roosevelt/

Atheism seems to be an erroneous attempt to declare that the humanism of the individual and an absolute truth of logic exists in a vacuum.

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February 26, 2016, 11:54:52 PM
Last edit: February 27, 2016, 12:16:26 AM by TPTB_need_war
 #2436

Why due to a lack of religious belief in government Mexico, Italy, Brazil, France, Spain, Colombia, S. Africa, and Argentina will be leaders in the Knowledge Age that I predict is developing:








Note that China's trust in business is rising very fast, but China is retarded by its religious belief in the collective. Do not bet big on the future of China, as most of the growth will occur outside of China from here forward.

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February 27, 2016, 12:33:56 AM
 #2437

...

Wow, I dunno TPTB re those countries (Mexico, Brazil Colombia, etc.) becoming leaders in The Knowledge Age.  

I certainly do not see that AT ALL in Peru.  Peru has a presidential campaign on right now, and most of them running are clowns even worse than what we are seeing in the USA.  Worse that the USA?  Well, here's us:



*   *   *

And, yep, all indicators are that the Peruvian electorate is going to vote again for who promises the most to the FSA ...  

Latin America may not have a religious belief in government, but they sure do have a tendency to vote for COLLECTIVISTS at a disturbingly high rate...  And almost all are extremely corrupt...
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February 27, 2016, 01:01:52 AM
Last edit: February 27, 2016, 01:29:13 AM by TPTB_need_war
 #2438

OROBTC, Argentina just elected a privatization President. I am getting even more interested in Argentina but the southern hemisphere that would be free of the dreaded Chagas infection (although keep in mind the coming Mini Ice Age 2020 forward, which should make central Argentina much cooler ... but perhaps either much more arid or too much rainful, mudslides, etc). I had spoken to a real estate broker in Argentina in 2015 and he said if the privatization President won, then the business sector (conservatives, libertarians) in Argentina would take over and thrive.

Peru seems to be perhaps behind the curve (what do you expect from these highly indigenous demographics countries formerly ignorant natives who are mesmerized by mirrors ... they are behind the curve of understanding these matters ...). Morales @ Bolivia was just (barely) denied an exception from term limits.

I agree Latin America is inherently more socialist (Ecuador! Venezuela!), but they don't have an age 60+ baby boom generation that is vested in government, thus they perhaps can make the shift as they learn from their naive mistakes.

China's problem is that the love of strict governance is deeply cultural. Also China destroyed their youthful demographics with the one-child policy, so they have an aging society that will vote for BIG government over the coming decades. China is trying to bully all the other countries in the South China Sea for the natural gas and other fuels that may be under the sea bed. China will mature into a consumer economy and consume a lot from the rest of the world (and become net debtor like the USA was), thus the largest growth will be the smaller countries that supply the innovation in the Knowledge Age. Investing in China will be very difficult any way, because we are not Chinese. China has a walled off economy, even for example they prefer to make their own internet (social media) sites than use the ones that are popular in the west. China doesn't understand how to be an integral player in the information age. They want to control the information age and dominate it. Sorry they will lose.

So what I am saying is that if you want to invest low and sell high, prepare to invest into South America, Southern Europe after the coming implosion 2017 - 2024. The Italians will surely be very creative in the Knowledge Age (also Argentina is significantly populated by Italians).

The Philippines has also bozo candidates for the 2016  Presidential election, except for Davao City mayor Duturte. If he is elected, he will surely eliminate corruption and crime nationwide as he did in Davao City, but the first 6 months will be (in his own words in the recent televised debate) "very bloody" and tumultuous.

Trump is a reflection of the insolubility of the USA's divide between true Libertarians/conservatives and the rest of the population. The USA must break apart in order to appease this insoluble philosophical divide. Melting pot no more. This is essentially what Trump's reading of the "snake" represents politically and economically.

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February 27, 2016, 02:52:18 AM
 #2439



Trump endorses NSA and is againt Apple's petition to protect encryption. Now he joins with Christie who was staunchly pro-NSA in the prior debates:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/christie-endorses-trump-why-the-shock/

Trump will destroy our privacy. Armstrong is incorrect to assume the elite don't like Trump. They love Trump for he will start WW3 and fuck us all with NSA totalitarianism. Either that, or he will alienate so many voters so Sanders or Clinton wins. The USA is fucked in any case.

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February 27, 2016, 04:25:43 AM
 #2440

...

TPTB

I would not put all of your eggs into Argentina.  The politics of the place are very cyclical (Armstrong would have a field day studying that place, so much material...).  They had, not really long ago (about two economic downturns) a pretty conservative (though corrupt) president (Menem), who a lot of the world thought would change the place (for the better).  He did not.

Argentines will usually vote for whomever promises the most S for the FSA!

Re Italy, well you're onto something there.  They are very creative, they (generalizing) love education & languages.  They are world leaders (maybe THE world leaders) in various forms of the fashion industry.  Who designs sexier sports cars than Italy?  I do not know the state of IT & software engineering in Italy, but Italy is a country worth putting on your "Short List" of places to live and thrive.  Um, if they can keep out the Muslim & African Hordes...

Just because there is a lot of Italian blood in Argentina does not mean that "translates well" in important matters like economic & political freedom and creativity.

There is a reason for all of the Argentine jokes, even told by Peruvians...  Smiley

Q:  What is the biggest dollar value of anything known to mankind?
A:  The difference between what an Argentine thinks he is worth vs. what anyone else thinks he's worth...

^--- But, that's being mean.  Argentina IS full of well-educated people and much of it is very nice & civilized.  There is also a lot of crime and lots of con men there.
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