Economic Devastation

[TPTB_need_war]

The purpose of mining is to create a permanent decentralized exchange, which thus results in a permissionless system.

And even better than Bitcoin will be the coin where those newly mined coins are mined by the millions and billions of users, not by few 100s of professional miners (which is where Bitcoin is rapidly centralizing to). The only way to achieve this is to make mining unprofitable. I've explained this design, yet so many people remain skeptical. I'll finish the 'plaining in a white paper after it is too late to copy the design.

Absent an automatic means in the economy where money naturally moves from the power law distribution wealthy back to the masses, then Socialism erects to do the job, which is then captured by the same power law which ends up in periodic 600 year Dark Ages.

It is time for something better. Even better than Bitcoin. At least we have a somewhat decentralized Bitcoin in the meantime.

I have work to do.

Then get your a$$ back to work!

           


I can write that because I'm older than you are, smile.  But, really, do what you have to do...

World changing accomplishment completed (links to the solution are at the other thread):

Today afaics I have completely solved Philip Wadler's famous Expression Problem in the remaining area where it wasn't solved which are collections! A known unsolved problem in computer science for at least a decade and half.

Philip Wadler is the famous computer scientist professor co-creator of Haskell.

Essentially afaics my proposal is combining first-class type unions, first-class trait intersections, a global hash dynamic dispatch, and optional immutability to allow for first-class heterogeneous collections which are open in both dimensions of Wadler's Expression Problem, i.e. can add new data types and new interfaces orthogonal without restarting from before what one already has at any location in the source code. And this apparently eliminates subtyping entirely (which typeclasses didn't have any way, e.g. Haskell, Rust, and PureScript).

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[TPTB_need_war]

VERY IMPORTANT!

Martin Armstrong's "if this, then that" reversals have indicated that a very rare and unexpected outcome has become more plausible:

We will do a brief video update tomorrow on the general state of the markets given we have elected Monthly Bullish Reversals in several currencies. While we have been looking for the Euro to reach 116, we have now clearly extended the sideways rally given that the major low for last year took place in March 2015. May has been the main target in time on our arrays for a long-time. It appears we should press higher into May (dollar decline). There is a potential that exceeding the 117 level could spark a rally even up to the 125 level. This is rather serious for last year’s high was 12109. Exceeding that high intraday would make 2016 a REACTION HIGH since we did not make a new low this year.

The yearly array in the Euro warns the turning points are 2016 and 2018 followed then by 2022. Additionally, 2016 is a PANIC CYCLE YEAR and we have not seen anything unfold with volatility just yet. We have the BREXIT vote in June. A failure for Britain to exit would perhaps create that last rally of euphoria that the Euro will survive. Nevertheless, the fundamentals which hit in 2017 globally, warn that  the trend thereafter does not look very bright.

Such a move in the Euro to exceed last year’s high would most likely result in a tremendous setup for a [ur=https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/the-false-move/]FALSE MOVE[/url] and the slingshot we see that appears to be unfolding from next year onward. Everything from oil, turmoil in Saudi Arabia, commodities (including metals) to stocks, bonds, and currencies, are all warning that we will see the crazy times ahead in trading where most will lose everything.

What Armstrong is saying is that the prediction markets (i.e. the Euro's FX value) may have ascertained that BREXIT vote will result with Britain remaining in the EU. Probably because of the corrupt control (e.g. vote counting cheating) combined the people can be frightened by for example the speech from Obama threatening to cut off Britian from trade negotiations. Additionally the EU migration policy has enabled many migrants to relocate for better work in the UK and throughout the EU. Additionally many retirees in Europe dependent on government's implicit backing of pensions who are frightened by the prospects of a turn away from socialism.

This was what I predicted ("Europe will not disintegrate") back in 2010 (see the bolded linked essay which btw was widely syndicated at goldeagle.com, marketoracle,co.uk, financialsense.com, silverbearcafe, etc):

You will probably need a week or two of studying the thread slowly.

I will be the first to admit I needed a week to fully absorb the following works of AnonyMint.

The Rise of Knowledge
Understand Everything Fundamentally  <--- this one

The implications of this are that the rising interest rates and slingshot scenario for the US stocks and US dollar could be delayed until 2017 or even 2018. This FALSE MOVE up for Europe could cause a FALSE MOVE down for the US stock market and US dollar (inversion of the reasons for the slingshot move) which will load the slingshot with maximum catapulting force.

Those who don't understand what I am referring to by "slingshot" need to review my recent posts upthread.

So this means we might not get a crash in Bitcoin and gold at this time if they are still anti-correlated to the US dollar and US stocks. We might be looking at "happy speculating days are here again" for another 1.5 years!! OMG!!  

But realize that when the slingshot comes 2017ish (with the phase transition accelerated stampede beginning perhaps 2017.95 instead of peaking on that date as originally speculated), US dollar, US stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and other tangible "off the grid" assets will be aligned in an upward bubble as the rest of the world flees its collapsing economies (for reasons as explained upthread).

So assuming BREXIT is denied (and the public's support of EU is affirmed), we may see for the remainder of 2016 that USD down, US stocks down, and gold and Bitcoin could go either direction. Gold might go down since it is seen as a hedge against government failure. Bitcoin could go up if people are selling gold and looking for an alternative speculation in the tinfoil hat arena. Bitcoin isn't really a hedge against government failure, rather BTC is a crypto-gambler's paradise reserve currency. But gold may also still be anti-correlated to the USD somewhat, so perhaps gold would not decline and not go up either. However it is possible that Bitcoin would go down with both gold and USD/USD stocks, if Bitcoin is seem also ideologically a bet on the failure of currency unions and governments. My thinking though is Bitcoin is a hi-tech innovation and is driven by crypto speculation demand. Perhaps what can bring Bitcoin down is the realization that SegWit doesn't solve Bitcoin's scalepocalyse.

Whereas, once that FALSE MOVE into the Euro peaks and the realities of how fucked the ZIRP and pegging of currencies is, with the $10 trillion short on the USD by foreign corporation bond offerings, then the SLINGSHOT back into the USD and US stocks, which at first will confound everyone. But this will accelerate the collapse of the rest of the world as the USD rises.

As this gains steam, it is possible it may pull some money out of Bitcoin, as Bitcoin may have peaked from the current up move, and speculators will want a new speculation as they see gold and USD/US stocks rising. So perhaps Bitcoin is anti-correlated to gold after all! Hmmm. But the other possibility is gold and Bitcoin both don't make a significant move on the FALSE MOVE, or they both go down or up together.

My bet is as follows:

1. Gold is primarily a hedge against failure of government now, and no longer anti-correlated to USD. Tinfoil hat goldbugs have by now realized China is not our savior.

2. BREXIT fails, Euro up, Euro stocks up, USD down, USD stocks down, gold down, and Bitcoin confused.

3. SegWit realized to be insufficient, Bitcoin down hard along with gold, USD, USD stocks.


Edit: Armstrong sees gold aligning with USD stocks (but very importantly still disaligned with USD) in preparation for the upcoming FALSE MOVE in 2016 followed by SLINGSHOT move in 2017. And has noted USA Dow stocks in the region of technical support. So it appears the current up move in gold, Bitcoin, and stocks will reverse with the outcome of the BREXIT vote if is a "No" result.

[sidhujag]

Cool ill hold my coins and buy more if possible and sell usd

[West man]

Cool ill hold my coins and buy more if possible and sell usd

Or you can try putting in to a trade platform on an exchange and use it to leverage against the usd and make even more than simply selling it.

[TPTB_need_war]

The red text was predicted by myself in 2010 in the essay "Understand Everything Fundamentally" which is linked in CoinCube's OP of this thread and which was widely syndicated on the internet "goldbug" websites such as gold-eagle.com, financialsense.com, marketoracle.co.uk, silverbearcare.com, etc..

Follow up to my prior post:

QUESTION: my normal logical mind tells me that whenever interest rates rise, money gets more expensive, so consequently the only true reason for doing so would be that underlying economic data shows the economy is doing well and can do without ‘help’.

A simple mind like I am tells me that a stock index should rise in case of a well doing economy. Instead I only hear markets fear a interest rate hike. Seems to me that the collective wants interest rates remain low, so stockindex growth driven higher by debt.

ANSWER: The fundamentals flipped after the shift from a private to public wave following 1929. Under the pre-1929 economics of laissez-faire, the government did not attempt to manipulate society with monetary policy. They attempted to lower U.S. interest rates to deflect capital inflows back to Europe, but they did not practice manipulating interest rates domestically to try to manage the economy. Therefore, raising interest rates before 1929 was often seen as bullish because it showed there was a demand for borrowing money due to economic expansion.

Today, the fundamentals are interpreted through the eyes of Marxism. Raising interest rates is now considered a punishment to society intended to deter them from borrowing. Yet, deflation involves declining interest rates due to the lack of interest to borrow. Some say that higher rates are bad for stocks, but they are solely looking at it as a punitive measure that will cost people more to borrow. You even have people cheering gold with lower interest rates.

None of this makes any sense economically. Nonetheless, we are looking at a sharp rise in stocks and gold along with rising interest rates, which will confuse everyone. Interest rates are the manifestation of expected inflation. If you think inflation will be 10%, you will lose money if you lend it at 5%. Interest rates are the price of expected inflation alongside the perceived risk.

Therefore, everything will take off to the upside and the majority, whom will be following the Marxist version of fundamentals, will feed the rally because they will be short. This view of fundamentals will eventually flip back, but only when the public at large sees this flip and goes with it. That is the point of no return where confidence in government collapses.

Cool ill hold my coins and buy more if possible and sell usd

Your illness combined with jealousy dismember your reading comprehension. MA didn't predict anything about crypto-currency. The prediction is for USD to go down through end of 2017 (if the 117 level of the Euro is breached to the upside and BREXIT result is "Remain"). Thus you are not being contrarian to my predictions, which you've incorrectly stated always made your trades correct.

Buying more Bitcoin after the halving peak (June or August) is very risky though. Definitely you won't see great gains from this. And the downside risk is very great. So that would be a contrarian-to-my-predictions trade on your part and I hope you go 100% of your net worth into it, so you will be finally gone from this forum when you are bankrupted.

BitFomo, the argument that the government won't care about the securities law violations in crypto IPOs, instamines, PoS coins, masternode coins, coins paying debasement to the developers (Z.cash), seems reasonable because the elite have bigger fish to fry.

However, the period of 2018 to 2020 is going to be utter scorched earth economic collapse followed by a coordinated monetary reform into a one-world reserve currency system, thus we could see governments become very totalitarian in terms of going after all illegal actions wherein they can confiscate people's money due to some law broken. They will hunt those with significant money, not nickels and dimes.

I would steer clear of violating laws as much as possible, if you have any money. As for thinking you can hide your money from the government in Bitcoin, the centralization (centralized control) of Bitcoin will eventually kill that.

Do you really think TPTB, the mainstream capital flows that are short the dollar+gold+Bitcoin, and the world's socialism is going to allow the "rich" (i.e. the upper middle class) to ride away with gains in gold and Bitcoin as the rest of the people become impoverished by the economic collapse

If you want to ride through this coming apocalypse unscathed, then you need to be extra diligent on not providing simple legal justification for confiscation of your wealth.

[sidhujag]

Cool ill hold my coins and buy more if possible and sell usd

Or you can try putting in to a trade platform on an exchange and use it to leverage against the usd and make even more than simply selling it.

Or I can wait until a real decentralized exchange exists and then use it to leverage against the USD and watch my coins explode upwards until then.

[TPTB_need_war]

Or I can wait until a real decentralized exchange exists...

You are jealous:

Note I also contributed the key technical insight[1] into how to make decentralized exchange work so it can't be jammed.

[1] Find my posts in this thread and note that TierNolan is one of the original inventors of the DE protocol, but it had a jamming flaw until I fixed it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1364951.0

[STT]

Using leverage on an already volatile system seems an unneeded complication to life.  Or at least play it both ways if you are a trader then fair enough

and BREXIT result is "Remain"

The polls show a reasonable chance either way apparently, however I would reference the polls of the early nineties showing a Labour victory as evidence that people answer differently to a poll then their actual vote.  Exit polls probably not so much as its all done by then.   However the British public are very news minded and want to influence the debate in their answers while actually being set on voting otherwise.

I really doubt any result but remain is what occurs unless Im somehow missing some vast but hidden harbour of discontent or apprehension at EU policy.  Its possible and probably would even be accurate to the situation but the average person is more guided by their own impression of EU money flow to them personally I think.   Many land owners receive cash for otherwise fairly useless open land on their large estates so are likely in favour of continuing subsidies and similarly those in power and also the wider public love the idea of free money scheme 'initiatives' ;that is probably the perception of EU.

  Also the common argument seems to be along the lines of but I like Europeans as if UK will cast adrift into the Atlantic if a vote should be made to distance from the EU, not only does business stop and any travel plans but literally UK leaves europe.  To me the vote is on politics and unbound and expanding budgeting power of EU, its quite reasonable to leave and if you really want return a decade later, meanwhile we trade with europe anyway because that's what companies do to profit.

  This is just about governments, nothing wrong with the system UK used for a few hundred years but Im guessing people now fear the change of leaving EU not realising the bigger changes will occur if UK stays in - but hopefully Im wrong multiple times there

[TPTB_need_war]

I really doubt any result but remain is what occurs unless Im somehow missing some vast but hidden harbour of discontent or apprehension at EU policy.  Its possible and probably would even be accurate to the situation but the average person is more guided by their own impression of EU money flow to them personally I think.   Many land owners receive cash for otherwise fairly useless open land on their large estates so are likely in favour of continuing subsidies and similarly those in power and also the wider public love the idea of free money scheme 'initiatives' ;that is probably the perception of EU.

  Also the common argument seems to be along the lines of but I like Europeans as if UK will cast adrift into the Atlantic if a vote should be made to distance from the EU, not only does business stop and any travel plans but literally UK leaves europe.  To me the vote is on politics and unbound and expanding budgeting power of EU, its quite reasonable to leave and if you really want return a decade later, meanwhile we trade with europe anyway because that's what companies do to profit.

You affirmed the red text in my post. And thus affirmed my 2010 prediction has remained correct.

[TPTB_need_war]

TPTB are not entirely in control. Marxism and the entropic force is driving the current outcome, i.e. the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Read my 2010 essay, "Understand Everything Fundamentally".

I'll go back to my statement about the only true sound form of money being the theoretical currency used in the transformers cartoon "energon", blocks of energy that can be redeemed at full face value at any given time regardless of externalities.  Lacking such technology, since matter and energy are interchangable, the next most likely candidate is the most easily convertable form of matter, and thus we end up with oil backed currency.

So no, from a rational point of view, gold doesn't actually make the most sense unless it can be easily converted, or you're living in a pre-industrial revolution civilization.  But the problem is, the oil, or most energy sources in general can be cheated with fractional reserve or inflation, so here we are with Bitcoin because gold has lack of granularity, high friction in use, and the same counterparty risk as the oil dollar when it has to go in vaults and be used with IOUs.

And crypto-currency can't remain decentralized. So again there is no ONE RIGHT WAY.

Never will be.

You are a Marxist because you want a total order to the universe.

Learn to accept the reason we can't have a total order. I explained it already about the speed-of-light must be finite else past and future collapse into the same nothingness.

You are a Marxist because you want a total order to the universe.

Acknowledging the existence of monopolies doesn't make someone a "Marxist".

Marxists believe that the business cycle can be eliminated. You believe a more perfect money can exist. Same myopia at the highest level of abstraction which is you both don't accept that the universe is composed of partial orders, not totality.

Edit: you also believe in the totality of the elite's "monopoly" control.

[sidhujag]

Or I can wait until a real decentralized exchange exists...

You are jealous:

Note I also contributed the key technical insight[1] into how to make decentralized exchange work so it can't be jammed.

[1] Find my posts in this thread and note that TierNolan is one of the original inventors of the DE protocol, but it had a jamming flaw until I fixed it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1364951.0

How altruistic you are anonymint! Yes so jealous

[TPTB_need_war]

[1] Find my posts in this thread and note that TierNolan is one of the original inventors of the DE protocol, but it had a jamming flaw until I fixed it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1364951.0

How altruistic you are anonymint! Yes so jealous

Why do you assume my point was about altruism   Maybe I am just pointing out that I am more important than you belittle me.

[sidhujag]

[1] Find my posts in this thread and note that TierNolan is one of the original inventors of the DE protocol, but it had a jamming flaw until I fixed it: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1364951.0

How altruistic you are anonymint! Yes so jealous

Why do you assume my point was about altruism   Maybe I am just pointing out that I am more important than you belittle me.

I was being sarcastic.. yes id like to see you do something now that will benefit mankind not call people out on every point on some random forum

[TPTB_need_war]

Radical transformation of the computing industry underway:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1219023.msg14737773#msg14737773

[CoinCube]

Coming soon to a socialist paradise near you.

Family Planning Police Screen Women Four Times a Year for Pregnancy
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/05/07/chinas-family-planning-police-screen-women-four-times-year-pregnancy/

According to a recent report from the BBC, all Chinese women of childbearing age have mandatory check-ups four times a year to ensure they are healthy and not pregnant without permission. A couple needs official approval before starting a family and must ask permission before trying to conceive. Population officers keep strict tabs on each woman’s medical history, listing the children she has, the contraception she uses, and any terminated pregnancies.

The Communist Party employs an estimated one million people in its army of family planning officials, who patrol the land, enforcing China’s strict population-control policies.

When you make redistribution a natural right and pay for such redistribution with an unsustainable economic system you eventually reach the point where promised handouts cannot be paid. At that point the path if least resistance is population controls and reproductive restrictions. It is likely a matter of when not if such measures are introduced in the west.

[OROBTC]

Coming soon to a socialist paradise near you.

Family Planning Police Screen Women Four Times a Year for Pregnancy
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/05/07/chinas-family-planning-police-screen-women-four-times-year-pregnancy/

According to a recent report from the BBC, all Chinese women of childbearing age have mandatory check-ups four times a year to ensure they are healthy and not pregnant without permission. A couple needs official approval before starting a family and must ask permission before trying to conceive. Population officers keep strict tabs on each woman’s medical history, listing the children she has, the contraception she uses, and any terminated pregnancies.

The Communist Party employs an estimated one million people in its army of family planning officials, who patrol the land, enforcing China’s strict population-control policies.

When you make redistribution a natural right and pay for such redistribution with an unsustainable economic system you eventually reach the point where promised handouts cannot be paid. At that point the path if least resistance is population controls and reproductive restrictions. It is likely a matter of when not if such measures are introduced in the west.

Hmm!  And I have read other pieces that China was slacking off its hard-line policy of one child.  Their one child policy has led to a weird demographic problem there: estimates of 30,000,000 - 100,000,000 more males (than women) in the cohort of child-bearing years there in China.

Good find.   
 
Socialism leads to so many other distortions too, and the end point is totalitarianism.

[trollercoaster]

The kids in the west have already been groomed to accept these invasive policies by the new religion of environmentalism.

[sockpuppet1]

Don't we all hope Xi Jinping, Putin, Merkel, Hellary, Craig Wright, Theymos, copy-leftist Gregory Maxwell, and globalist-ideologue Julian Assange control our future:

The kids in the west have already been groomed to accept these invasive policies by the new religion of environmentalism.

Coming soon to a socialist paradise near you.

Family Planning Police Screen Women Four Times a Year for Pregnancy
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/05/07/chinas-family-planning-police-screen-women-four-times-year-pregnancy/

According to a recent report from the BBC, all Chinese women of childbearing age have mandatory check-ups four times a year to ensure they are healthy and not pregnant without permission. A couple needs official approval before starting a family and must ask permission before trying to conceive. Population officers keep strict tabs on each woman’s medical history, listing the children she has, the contraception she uses, and any terminated pregnancies.

The Communist Party employs an estimated one million people in its army of family planning officials, who patrol the land, enforcing China’s strict population-control policies.

When you make redistribution a natural right and pay for such redistribution with an unsustainable economic system you eventually reach the point where promised handouts cannot be paid. At that point the path if least resistance is population controls and reproductive restrictions. It is likely a matter of when not if such measures are introduced in the west.

Hmm!  And I have read other pieces that China was slacking off its hard-line policy of one child.  Their one child policy has led to a weird demographic problem there: estimates of 30,000,000 - 100,000,000 more males (than women) in the cohort of child-bearing years there in China.

Good find.  
 
Socialism leads to so many other distortions too, and the end point is totalitarianism.

[smooth]

Don't we all hope Xi Jinping, Putin, Merkel, Hellary, Craig Wright, Theymos, copy-leftist Gregory Maxwell, and globalist-ideologue Julian Assange control our future:

Craig Wright? How the hell is that scammer going to control anything?

[OROBTC]

The kids in the west have already been groomed to accept these invasive policies by the new religion of environmentalism.

trollerc

I am afraid that you are correct.  

There is so much BS in environmentalism (and other New-Age-Lefty crap) that it is hard to even find, much less pass along, the truth.  Where I am it is normally quite hot in early May.  Not this year!  It's much cooler than normal.  Why?  After-effects of El Niño...


Has Oz gotten the Transgender Bathroom Epidemic yet?  A new low...