Trend reversal proposition

[cellard]

This is a scenario im contemplating now.

$9666 was broken and now we should be testing $11803, and when we get past there, I'll apply fibonacci retracements to look from where it could rebound, assuming we take a break and don't we go full blown FOMO to a new ATH.

Remember that last time we literally took a couple of days to go from $10k to $20k. We literally went a couple thousands up daily until the crash. We could go thought the same scenario again, but going higher than before since the bottom this time is higher. A believe a FOMO event to $30k in august is now possible.

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[figmentofmyass]

breaking a major down trend line can just indicate an interim bounce. that RSI divergence was relevant in the $6000s but it played out a long time ago---hence being in overbought territory now.

i agree that we're probably going higher though, just based on time and structure. the $11000s should provide a correction but i've never seen a triple top in the charts before. so if we get to the $11.5k area, i expect a pullback and breakout.

Remember that last time we literally took a couple of days to go from $10k to $20k. We literally went a couple thousands up daily until the crash. We could go thought the same scenario again, but going higher than before since the bottom this time is higher. A believe a FOMO event to $30k in august is now possible.

this seems doubtful to me. there are so many buyers trapped from last year. the 2017 bubble was the culmination of 2+ years of bullish accumulation---the ultimate squeeze. the market needs more correction, probably on the order of many months if not years.

[timerland]

I wouldn't go out of my way and say that $30k is now possible by August, that to me is still a very high target regardless of a trend reversal or not that probably won't even be achieved by the end of the year, let alone by August.

It honestly depends on if the psychological 5 figure barrier gets hit by the end of the month.

If it does, then there is definitely a possibility that the rally goes on longer, and fomo buying accelerates as people believe that it's the new all time high. Although I definitely don't see an all time high coming any time soon.

[thecodebear]

It went to $10k to $20k like a couple weeks because that was at the height of a long bull run. That was the mana phase just before the big crash. We're now in the slow consolidation phase after a crash. Ain't nothing going from $10k to $20k in 3 months. We're in a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT scenario than we were in back in December. We're not just suddenly gonna launch into a mania phase out of the blue. Expect most of this year to be gradual buildup back to around $20k and then the media starts going crazy again and people who got stuck in December realize they're actually in profit now and they should have been buying throughout this year and big time investors realize things are gonna start going boom again and we'll probably start a new bull run from late 2018 to mid 2019 or so, during which $30k might be a quick stop during the bull run.

[MiF]

breaking a major down trend line can just indicate an interim bounce. that RSI divergence was relevant in the $6000s but it played out a long time ago---hence being in overbought territory now.

i agree that we're probably going higher though, just based on time and structure. the $11000s should provide a correction but i've never seen a triple top in the charts before. so if we get to the $11.5k area, i expect a pullback and breakout.

Remember that last time we literally took a couple of days to go from $10k to $20k. We literally went a couple thousands up daily until the crash. We could go thought the same scenario again, but going higher than before since the bottom this time is higher. A believe a FOMO event to $30k in august is now possible.

this seems doubtful to me. there are so many buyers trapped from last year. the 2017 bubble was the culmination of 2+ years of bullish accumulation---the ultimate squeeze. the market needs more correction, probably on the order of many months if not years.

Indeed, corrections in the market was very hard and it will take few more month to go before we will hit the bullish market again. I think taking years to go further isn't possible, but we must no be too confident about that since we had no assurance with the current situations which may happen in the next few days. Hopefully we maybe able to sustain the current doubts that everybody was having right now in order for us to control each and everybody's emotions.

[pitiflin]

Remember that last time we literally took a couple of days to go from $10k to $20k. We literally went a couple thousands up daily until the crash. We could go thought the same scenario again, but going higher than before since the bottom this time is higher. A believe a FOMO event to $30k in august is now possible.

These were just the same guys buying and selling bitcoin from and to their own addresses. And there were a few people who were entering the crypto market due to the too much hype created by the price. And now people have gone crazy,they are at a loss and look who they are blaming...

[Tankdestroyer]

~snip~
We could go thought the same scenario again, but going higher than before since the bottom this time is higher. A believe a FOMO event to $30k in august is now possible.

I think it is too early to say that there is a possibility of a FOMO event to 30k US Dollars in August. Before I believe that such event can happen, I would like to see price reach 10,000 US Dollars at least, and break it's barrier because that will surely be the next resistance point. If ever btc price managed to break that wall, then I am quite sure that we will see many people spreading that expected FOMO to 30k US Dollars.

[Theb]

It got knocked down when it reached 9,900$ several times and failed on it's first major attempt on going above 10,000$ for more than 2 months. I expected that this dip would happen as a lot of people by now took profit in that area, as for the people worried that it will still go down I don't think it would as RSI right now is extremely oversold at this level also MACD is still looking bullish which supports my claim that a lot of people just took profit at this point. Jumping out of Bitcoin right now would not make any sense as it is too late to make a short.

[cellard]

breaking a major down trend line can just indicate an interim bounce. that RSI divergence was relevant in the $6000s but it played out a long time ago---hence being in overbought territory now.

i agree that we're probably going higher though, just based on time and structure. the $11000s should provide a correction but i've never seen a triple top in the charts before. so if we get to the $11.5k area, i expect a pullback and breakout.

Remember that last time we literally took a couple of days to go from $10k to $20k. We literally went a couple thousands up daily until the crash. We could go thought the same scenario again, but going higher than before since the bottom this time is higher. A believe a FOMO event to $30k in august is now possible.

this seems doubtful to me. there are so many buyers trapped from last year. the 2017 bubble was the culmination of 2+ years of bullish accumulation---the ultimate squeeze. the market needs more correction, probably on the order of many months if not years.

There were many people trapped in the 2013 bubble that simply held, for example me, I was accumulating all the way up and never sold, held for 2 to 3 years, just forgot about it and didn't bother, I knew some day it would go higher.

Many will do this. In fact most people that can't are already out of the market since they are weak hands that sell at a loss.

The hype for Bitcoin is too strong for it to remain stagnant for 2 years again, I think $5900's from Febraury being a potential floor will trigger a lot of people that are on the fence of buying to not miss the boat.

The number of buy and holders just keeps increasing with each cycle. Im not worried.

[magneto]

If we can actually establish some sort of momentum after we hit $10k, then FOMO is definitely going to be a factor. Prices could be pushed up to above the $12k resistance to upwards of $15k, before any corrections hits.

To me though, this is probably not the rally we're looking for as the definitive start of the recovery.

It'll still be hard for BTC to break $10k, as demonstrated by yesterday's correction down to $9300 after BTC again hiked above $9.9k. I believe it'll still take some time and consolidation before $10k will turn from resistance to support for the next big bull market, and the time probably isn't now.

[manchester93]

It's a trap, anyway. If this thing can pump through the $11,800 double top, I'm gonna build a nice hedge short a few thousand bucks higher.

Embrace the correction. Bitcoin is boring. I'm back to trading forex.

[figmentofmyass]

There were many people trapped in the 2013 bubble that simply held, for example me, I was accumulating all the way up and never sold, held for 2 to 3 years, just forgot about it and didn't bother, I knew some day it would go higher.

Many will do this. In fact most people that can't are already out of the market since they are weak hands that sell at a loss.

how do you know that most weak hands are already out of the market? a bull trap is called such because it traps weak hands at the top who end up selling the bottom of the next leg down. how can you rule out an interim bull trap?

markets (including bitcoin) don't usually crash 70% then immediately start pushing new highs. there should be a distribution/markdown cycle. it doesn't mean we're going to $3k or anything (though that's possible), but markets do take time to correct.

my experience reading sentiment on the forum, tradingview, social media, etc over the years is that the "weak hands" were often once "strong hands." they just sold later, near the real bottom.

The hype for Bitcoin is too strong for it to remain stagnant for 2 years again, I think $5900's from Febraury being a potential floor will trigger a lot of people that are on the fence of buying to not miss the boat.

The number of buy and holders just keeps increasing with each cycle. Im not worried.

i'm not worried, and i would hold the majority of my coins through a long term bear market anyway. but i wouldn't make grand assumptions about supply and demand either. don't forget that price has already risen more than 10000% over the last 2 years and change. real long term supports are far, far below here if the market really turns bearish.

the most bullish historical fractal is april-july 2013. compare the 2013 rallies to 2017 in terms of time. if rallies take so much longer now, corrections may take longer as well.

[arpon11]

I was having this analysis too just that I was having difference figure however will try what you said when we get to that level.  Since yesterday we are having some prices corrections and I think we may see clear when we hit the next bull run by next week as the issue with sec has affected the market.

[Wind_FURY]

It's a trap, anyway. If this thing can pump through the $11,800 double top, I'm gonna build a nice hedge short a few thousand bucks higher.

Embrace the correction. Bitcoin is boring. I'm back to trading forex.

Boring it is not. There is always drama from all directions in Bitcoin. Try following everything about it for a change, especially the politics, instead of looking at just the price all of the time.

Development is never boring too. Read on the Lightning Network or the other attempts by developers on their proposals to make transactions smaller or anonymous.

[Supercrypt]

~snip~
We could go thought the same scenario again, but going higher than before since the bottom this time is higher. A believe a FOMO event to $30k in august is now possible.

I think it is too early to say that there is a possibility of a FOMO event to 30k US Dollars in August. Before I believe that such event can happen, I would like to see price reach 10,000 US Dollars at least, and break it's barrier because that will surely be the next resistance point. If ever btc price managed to break that wall, then I am quite sure that we will see many people spreading that expected FOMO to 30k US Dollars.

It is pretty much too early I must say. Firstly, we really need not forget that the $11800 is going to be one pretty huge resistance to even break in one or two attempts and like someone said, it is either we end up consolidating here or we may still have more possibility of flowing back down, but only time can tell but I do not expect us to break it anytime too soon to be expecting a run by August to hit new ATH.

We may have broken a downtrend, we may have formed a bullish divergence, but we still have to understand that bearish divergences can still be formed on the way up.

[STT]

$9666 was broken and now we should be testing $11803, and when we get past there, I'll apply fibonacci retracements to look from where it could rebound, assuming we take a break and don't we go full blown FOMO to a new ATH.

Remember that last time we literally took a couple of days to go from $10k to $20k.

Driving through a fresh patch of even muddy ground can be far easier then the time it takes to retrace your steps with great big tyre tracks now in the way.    We wont be returning to 20,000 quite as easily as that, its well trodden ground now.

More power is needed second time around, more traction and involvement from all parties to get through previous volume of trend which easily represents resistance to price accumulation.   This is just standard market progress unfortunately and it allows sellers to take part in the market and raise volume generally.

Thats healthy and certainly the exchanges appreicate the extra business I dont doubt.  Even to take a trip to 11,803 is going to take a bit more then what we've seen so far.  The main reasoning or most obvious is we must cross the 200 day average which might be the most widely watched indicator the world over.

[Jating]

~snip~
We could go thought the same scenario again, but going higher than before since the bottom this time is higher. A believe a FOMO event to $30k in august is now possible.

I think it is too early to say that there is a possibility of a FOMO event to 30k US Dollars in August. Before I believe that such event can happen, I would like to see price reach 10,000 US Dollars at least, and break it's barrier because that will surely be the next resistance point. If ever btc price managed to break that wall, then I am quite sure that we will see many people spreading that expected FOMO to 30k US Dollars.

It is pretty much too early I must say. Firstly, we really need not forget that the $11800 is going to be one pretty huge resistance to even break in one or two attempts and like someone said, it is either we end up consolidating here or we may still have more possibility of flowing back down, but only time can tell but I do not expect us to break it anytime too soon to be expecting a run by August to hit new ATH.

Actually we don't need to wait and see what could be the resistance to $11800. Just look at how big the wall of $10K is in front of us, we thought that it can be broken, we have attempted breaking it twice already, but we couldn't. This could be the sign that as the price goes up, more resistance to face.

We may have broken a downtrend, we may have formed a bullish divergence, but we still have to understand that bearish divergences can still be formed on the way up.

As far as I'm concern, we are not yet out of the woods as others may have thought too. The last bottom is $6500, for me to be able to say at least and breath a fresh air and say finally the bearish sentiments is over, $12K-$13K will be a good gauge.

[lumeire]

I was having this analysis too just that I was having difference figure however will try what you said when we get to that level.  Since yesterday we are having some prices corrections and I think we may see clear when we hit the next bull run by next week as the issue with sec has affected the market.

This is pretty much the trend we're going too unless some big news come anyway and disrupt the market yet again. Eg: new regulations in place, another big exchange got hacked, you get the idea.

Hopefully it stays on with the trend, we could use some stability in this market every now and then.

[beerlover]

[i mg]https://cdn.pbrd.co/images/HjNgiDo.png[/img]

This is a scenario im contemplating now.

$9666 was broken and now we should be testing $11803, and when we get past there, I'll apply fibonacci retracements to look from where it could rebound, assuming we take a break and don't we go full blown FOMO to a new ATH.

Remember that last time we literally took a couple of days to go from $10k to $20k. We literally went a couple thousands up daily until the crash. We could go thought the same scenario again, but going higher than before since the bottom this time is higher. A believe a FOMO event to $30k in august is now possible.

I do not see $30k by August no matter how optimistic I am in the long run. Even though we have broken the major downtrend, we still have a lot of resistances ahead of us. I want to believe we will actually get to the $11800 region, but I really do not see us breaking that.

From there on, I want to assume we may be consolidating there for a while between that resistance and found support before knowing where next from there.

[Wind_FURY]

I was having this analysis too just that I was having difference figure however will try what you said when we get to that level.  Since yesterday we are having some prices corrections and I think we may see clear when we hit the next bull run by next week as the issue with sec has affected the market.

This is pretty much the trend we're going too unless some big news come anyway and disrupt the market yet again. Eg: new regulations in place, another big exchange got hacked, you get the idea.

Hopefully it stays on with the trend, we could use some stability in this market every now and then.

Then there are influential people like Warren Buffet saying that Bitcoin is "like rat poison squared" and Charlie Munger saying that "Bitcoin nearly as bad as trading harvested baby brains". Hahaha.

What is this? Is this fear? What did Warren Buffet say about fear in the markets again?