Today was an excellent opportunity for an "Exit Drill"

[joburgtaxi]

Hi

Am glad that things have unfolded as they have today, has given me an opportunity to test my "Exit plan". Getting coins to the exchange (taking into account confirmation time), making sure that my trading limits are sufficient etc.

[Dr Bloggood]

Did it work, were you able to sell everything you wanted?

How much was it and where did you sell?

[joburgtaxi]

no I did not actually sell as the price fall stopped just short of my sell point so I still have all of my BTC.

It was a good exercise though and I highly recommend doing it, I for instance discovered that my trading limit was too low to accommodate the amount of BTC that I would have wanted to sell so I have now had that upped to the correct level. 

[ajax3592]

Good for you, next time mark the lower sell point $20 above what you desire, so there will be less chances of missing the oppurtunity.

[joburgtaxi]

OMG Everybody Panic!!... Did I do it right?

This thread is such bullshit and irresponsible advice. Bitcoin users are smarter than you "elite trader" stragglers.

Sorry for upsetting you blablahblah. Just though it prudent to make sure everything works should the worst happen.

It is like saying in the IT world "Fuck DR plans" "Fuck Backups" it will all just lead to panic. I think it is best that those heavily invested in BTC accept that it IS VOLATILE instead of just blasting any caution that anyone provides into oblivion.

[wachtwoord]

OMG Everybody Panic!!... Did I do it right?

This thread is such bullshit and irresponsible advice. Bitcoin users are smarter than you "elite trader" stragglers.

Sorry for upsetting you blablahblah. Just though it prudent to make sure everything works should the worst happen.

It is like saying in the IT world "Fuck DR plans" "Fuck Backups" it will all just lead to panic. I think it is best that those heavily invested in BTC accept that it IS VOLATILE instead of just blasting any caution that anyone provides into oblivion.

It is volatile, so don't sell.

[joburgtaxi]

OMG Everybody Panic!!... Did I do it right?

This thread is such bullshit and irresponsible advice. Bitcoin users are smarter than you "elite trader" stragglers.

Sorry for upsetting you blablahblah. Just though it prudent to make sure everything works should the worst happen.

It is like saying in the IT world "Fuck DR plans" "Fuck Backups" it will all just lead to panic. I think it is best that those heavily invested in BTC accept that it IS VOLATILE instead of just blasting any caution that anyone provides into oblivion.

It is volatile, so don't sell.

I did not sell as per my previous post but as an intelligent person if the price goes below a threshold that I have set for my self then I must consider my options even if that means selling and then getting back in at a lower price than what I sold for.

The point of the thread was mealy to point out that there could be many obstacles preventing you from trading in an instant, be it for buy or sell and that it was best to check that everything works as you would expect it to instead of trying to sort out these obstacles at the last minute when you may have missed your opportunity.   

[shkiser]

Keep in mind that last cpl crashes have shown us that mtgox lags out with all of the sell orders, purposely or not, I could see it being quite difficult to sell at a moments notice.

[jzcjca00]

I encourage you to continue to work out the kinks in your "sell on dips" strategy.  Can you let me know how many coins you plan to dump into the flash crashes, and which exchange you use, because I want to be sure I have enough fiat at that exchange to buy them up cheap!

Don't worry about losing them forever, though, as I usually start trimming my position when we hit new all-time highs.  I'll sell them back to you once the price goes back up!

In all seriousness, "buy and hold forever" is a better strategy.  It's better for you, since you don't sell low and buy high.  And it's better for Bitcoin since you don't add to the panic sell offs.  And since you're invested in bitcoins, anything that helps Bitcoin also helps you.  I think some people on this forum have overreacted to your post because they see your strategy as an attack on Bitcoin, and thus as an attack on them.

[joburgtaxi]

I think that those that have attacked me over this thread perhaps bought their coins a while back at a very cheap price so the fall of this morning would have not been threatening in any way to their capital invested. Others like me for instance were unfortunately a bit late on the uptake so have paid a much higher price for our initial investments and have more than just proffit losses to contend with.

Anyway each to their own, I was not attacking Bitcoin in anyway and am sorry it has been perseived as such I was mealy stating the fact that one should make sure that all of the systems you have in place work as you would expect them to and I don't see how that can be a bad thing.

[wachtwoord]

I did not sell as per my previous post but as an intelligent person if the price goes below a threshold that I have set for my self then I must consider my options even if that means selling and then getting back in at a lower price than what I sold for.

No an intelligent person might sell if it goes above a certain point and buy when it get's below a certain point.

If the supermarket on your corner store ups the prices this won't entice you run there and buy some right? If they lower the prices however, it might. There is no reason this should be any different for Bitcoin (or whatever else).

[joburgtaxi]

I did not sell as per my previous post but as an intelligent person if the price goes below a threshold that I have set for my self then I must consider my options even if that means selling and then getting back in at a lower price than what I sold for.

No an intelligent person might sell if it goes above a certain point and buy when it get's below a certain point.

If the supermarket on your corner store ups the prices this won't entice you run there and buy some right? If they lower the prices however, it might. There is no reason this should be any different for Bitcoin (or whatever else).

Again I point out the factor of the initial capital investment amount. If I bought something a year ago for lets say £13 and today it is worth £600 then I have a potential profit of £587. Since my profit margins are so high I can afford to loose a bit on a down slump and still be smiling. When however the £13 that I invested initially is looking like it may now be heading to a point where it is now worth £9, I need to question my motives on deciding to take the potential  loss on my initial investment or if I really have faith in what I have purchased for £13 and that the current price is going to go below £13 then I should sell it at £13 as a safety on my capital investment and then wait for the price to drop to say £6.50 or any number below £13 for that matter, wait for the market to re establish some stability and then go back and buy 2 for the same price that I just sold one at.

[wachtwoord]

I did not sell as per my previous post but as an intelligent person if the price goes below a threshold that I have set for my self then I must consider my options even if that means selling and then getting back in at a lower price than what I sold for.

No an intelligent person might sell if it goes above a certain point and buy when it get's below a certain point.

If the supermarket on your corner store ups the prices this won't entice you run there and buy some right? If they lower the prices however, it might. There is no reason this should be any different for Bitcoin (or whatever else).

Again I point out the factor of the initial capital investment amount. If I bought something a year ago for lets say £13 and today it is worth £600 then I have a potential profit of £587. Since my profit margins are so high I can afford to loose a bit on a down slump and still be smiling. When however the £13 that I invested initially is looking like it may now be heading to a point where it is now worth £9, I need to question my motives on deciding to take the potential  loss on my initial investment or if I really have faith in what I have purchased for £13 and that the current price is going to go below £13 then I should sell it at £13 as a safety on my capital investment and then wait for the price to drop to say £6.50 or any number below £13 for that matter, wait for the market to re establish some stability and then go back and buy 2 for the same price that I just sold one at.

No. The originally invested amount does not, for a rational individual, play a role in deciding whether an investment has a positive EV now and will therefore not play a role in deciding when to sell.

[jzcjca00]

I think that those that have attacked me over this thread perhaps bought their coins a while back at a very cheap price so the fall of this morning would have not been threatening in any way to their capital invested. Others like me for instance were unfortunately a bit late on the uptake so have paid a much higher price for our initial investments and have more than just proffit losses to contend with.

Anyway each to their own, I was not attacking Bitcoin in anyway and am sorry it has been perseived as such I was mealy stating the fact that one should make sure that all of the systems you have in place work as you would expect them to and I don't see how that can be a bad thing.

Rookie investors often make the mistake of thinking that what you paid for something should have some bearing on when you should sell it.  More successful investors pay no attention to how far they might be up or down, but focus exclusively on what they expect the future to bring.  For that, relevant past behavior is usually  the best predictor of future behavior.  Bitcoin is in a long-term bull rally, punctuated by some rather dramatic short-term corrections.  Unless the fundamentals or trend changes, a wise investor would be willing to ride out these downturns, rather than risk selling at the bottom of yet again another short-term correction.

[Ichthyo]

This thread is an example for utterly ill-guided behaviour.

When engaged in a thing like bitcoin, never ever react on short term happenings!

Moreover, if you want to be an investor, then react on the trend not on absolute value limits.


There is outright never the need to have an "exit drill", since behaving this way is unprofessional. Instead of conjuring up exit drill plans, you should use your brain to get a judgement of risk. Holding any monetary position always bears some risk -- but responsible persons try to get their personal judgement of risks ahead of the happenings.

To translate this to the current situation: if a (hypothetical) investor judges bitcoin too risky, the right time to prepare for exiting was during the final stage of the bull run. This would be the right time to reduce the risk exposure and take some profit. But if our hypothetical investor came to the judgement that (s)he wants to hold the coins, since there is long term potential, then there is no sudden rate drop ever which can change this judgement fundamentally. The only pattern which would prompt to reconsider the judgement would be when there was a constant decline in rates over a time span longer than the time since the second last bubble, that is in our situation, a constant decline over a year or so, combined with stagnation and signs of disease in the bitcoin economy as a whole.

[Shneebly]

Am glad that things have unfolded as they have today, has given me an opportunity to test my "Exit plan". Getting coins to the exchange (taking into account confirmation time), making sure that my trading limits are sufficient etc.

The fact that you would consider a 10% dip in Bitcoin's price warranting of an "exit drill" is silly. Are you new here? This is a weekly occurrence...

If the price shoots up, perhaps that is a sign to sell (if the market dept and other indicators point to this), before buying back at a lower level. Most people who try this lose money, and would be better off holding on to their Bitcoins.

But why the hell would you sell if the price dips? That's a buying opportunity. Bitcoin is volatile, and people without balls who think they can "trade" their way to riches end up losing money.

(This goes without mentioning trade lag.) I bought and forgot, my friend bought, traded, and sold. Guess who did better?

[mootinator]

Should the worst happen, c'est la vie. I don't need a bloody exit plan. "Invest more in bitcoin than you can afford to lose!" said no one ever.

[wachtwoord]

Bitcoin is my exit plan.

Plan Bitcoin!

[indiemax]

Bitcoin is my exit plan.

cool!

[Tirapon]

OP is the perfect example of how NOT to do it.

[fluidjax]

Guys lighten up on the OP.
Many people are coming to Bitcoin to make what they believe will be a good investment with high profits. But once they learn about what Bitcoin offers the world, they may come around to the 'Bitcoin is my Exit' way of thinking.
It still doesnt mean that shouldn't cash out on the way up and mitigate some of the investment risk. The growth of Bitcoin is suceeding because the goals of bitcoin and personal desire for wealth, coincide. They are not mutually exclusive.

But cashing out in a panic is probably not the best way to do it. Cold,calm and calculated is best when it comes to money.

[Shneebly]

Bitcoin is my exit plan.

This is fantastic.

I need to print that on a T shirt so I can point to it every time people ask what my exit strategy is.

[wachtwoord]

Bitcoin is my exit plan.

This is fantastic.

I need to print that on a T shirt so I can point to it every time people ask what my exit strategy is.

http://www.spreadshirt.nl/plan-bitcoin-poloshirts-C4408A24440093

[steamon]

I don't mind people cashing out now the more rare people with 10-100 btc gets. The more 1 btc gets worth. The more money we will earn at the end. As a believer I am not thinking about dumping any bitcoins the next few years until it gets super high. 100k would by nice but let we first go trough the 10k you know.

I think it will keep hang around gold price but it might by nothing to do with it. I still connect deffcuilty/bitcoin price. So the harder it gets to farm bitcoins and the investment needed to get bitcoins. Bitcoins get more worth because they get more rare to create.

But also buzz and people wanting bitcoins cause price to go up to of course.

Prices over 10k$+ I see pretty much possible next year.

[Tirapon]

For the benefit of OP:

Now that we seem to be dropping, here's a tip - You don't sell for $850 what you previously were unwilling to sell for over $1000. If you were unwilling to sell for $1000+, you should jump at the opportunity to buy at $850. Or wait, and see if it goes any lower. Point is, you can't predict where the bottom will be, so if you sell hoping to buy lower, and it turns around again, you end up buying back at a higher price and therefore you lose money.

If you believe that BTC will trade at $1000+ at some point in the future, there's no need to worry about a little dip back to $500 or so.

[BittBurger]

no I did not actually sell as the price fall stopped just short of my sell point so I still have all of my BTC.

Damn.  Was hoping another weak individual would drop off, thereby making my coins even more valuable.

All my new investor friends were freaking out yesterday.  I simply told them they need to cash out completely because this is not for them.

Tired of hearing the paranoia.

I need to print that on a T shirt so I can point to it every time people ask what my exit strategy is.

There needs to be a T shirt that says "Balls of Steel" with the Bitcoin logo next to it.  For those of us who held on ..

[joburgtaxi]

Hate to say this guys but I am so glad that I did my "exit drill" that I got flamed so heavily for 2 days ago.


I now have options !!!


I sold out at my predetermined sell point as I described and am now ready to get back in again at any time but now I will have nearly twice the amount of coins that I had with the same amount of capital investment or I can just walk away.

[joburgtaxi]

Woohooo

am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!

[Dr Bloggood]

Woohooo

am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!

Well done, man!

That flaming was indeed not justified. I think people just thought you were panicking.

[Tirapon]

Good for you. Honestly I mean it, I'm glad you won this time.

Just be careful, I have seen enough people caught in bear traps to know that this is generally the less common outcome.

[Shneebly]

Woohooo

am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!

Well done, man!

That flaming was indeed not justified. I think people just thought you were panicking.

The title of the post used the words "Exit Drill." Of course people thought it was a panic.

Congrats on winning this round (no sarcasm). But be careful-- I can point to a dozen other examples in which the price dipped by the same amount and then rebounded-- where you would have lost your Bitcoin.

Consider reading up on hindsight bias:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

As jzcjca00 pointed out, this investment strategy is horrible. The fact that one wins a slot machine on their first try does not change the fact that slot machines take more money than they give.

[Dr Bloggood]

Woohooo

am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!

Well done, man!

That flaming was indeed not justified. I think people just thought you were panicking.

The title of the post used the words "Exit Drill." Of course people thought it was a panic.

Congrats on winning this round (no sarcasm). But be careful-- I can point to a dozen other examples in which the price dipped by the same amount and then rebounded-- where you would have lost your Bitcoin.

Consider reading up on hindsight bias:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

As jzcjca00 pointed out, this investment strategy is horrible. The fact that one wins a slot machine on their first try does not change the fact that slot machines take more money than they give.

Well, that's true, OP gave with his title and his OP the impression that this was about a permanent exit of the market. He should have expressed himself better.

However, there is nothing wrong with going on short term speculation in BTC. It's a lot riskier, no doubt, but can also bring you higher gains. I stay away from it for several reasons, for me it's just buy and hold, but if somebody wants to go high risk/high reward and play the game that way, I'm not the one to condemn him.

[darkmule]

I honestly don't get the weirdos who freak out any time someone suggests (rightly or wrongly) that the price is about to correct, as if they're attacking Bitcoin itself.  Get over it, people.  It goes up and down.  People will discuss that.

People will also profit by predicting the dips and booms correctly.  Laugh at them if they lose, if you're into schadenfreude.  Cheer them if they win, because they deserved to.  But don't act like someone just shot your goddamn dog because they speculate.

[nwbitcoin]

Thought I would add some free advice, based on my first crash experience.

First point is that bitcoin is going to crash on a regular basis, so don't panic.

Its also possible to work out when its going to crash, because nothing should double in value within days - that is just stupid!

When it does that, you need to sell a little of your investment so that you get some profit.

Within a week or so, it will drop in value by about 30%, and that price will almost be stable and will last for a month or two, before it all starts to go nuts again. 

The point is that in the medium term, the next 36 months or so, the price is just going up.

On a daily basis, it goes up and down like a yoyo.  That is stressful, especially if you borrowed money to invest.

Don't check the prices daily! ;-)

[joburgtaxi]

I honestly don't get the weirdos who freak out any time someone suggests (rightly or wrongly) that the price is about to correct, as if they're attacking Bitcoin itself.  Get over it, people.  It goes up and down.  People will discuss that.

People will also profit by predicting the dips and booms correctly.  Laugh at them if they lose, if you're into schadenfreude.  Cheer them if they win, because they deserved to.  But don't act like someone just shot your goddamn dog because they speculate.

Your Ad Hominem attack is deplorable. IMO the OP was clearly trying to coordinate, or at least influence, a mass sell-off by giving newbies in the General forum bad advice. The price doesn't magically change all by itself, it's these "wolves in sheep's clothing" trying to pull strings. Had this thread been in the Speculation sub-forum where it belongs, it would've been laughed out of town. Hang your head in shame for letting yourself be blinded by greed.

Woohooo

am back in with 1.5 more coins than I had before with out having to introduce new capital !!

Congratulations on taking money from anyone who actually listened to your "helpful advice".

Wow

I too am a "newbie" to bitcoin so appreciate that you have considered me a seasoned professional.

If you had taken the time to actually read the entire thread then you would have realised that all I was initially tryng to point out was that should one wish to Buy/sell that they should make sure that all of their systems were functioning as expected, I had problems with some of mine which I am glad I got rectified through my "Drill" or else I would not have been able to execute the trades that I did in a timely manor.

I was not instructing or telling anyone to sell I was mealy sharing my experience so please get your facts correct before you make these kinds of accusations.

blablahblah I did say sorry for upsetting you earlier in this thread but you continue to insult me !!

Also with regards to this comment you made "IMO the OP was clearly trying to coordinate, or at least influence, a mass sell-off by giving newbies in the General forum bad advice." The Chinese did that all by themselves, I wish I was that powerful.

[Shneebly]

Its also possible to work out when its going to crash, because nothing should double in value within days - that is just stupid!

When it does that, you need to sell a little of your investment so that you get some profit.

Within a week or so, it will drop in value by about 30%, and that price will almost be stable and will last for a month or two, before it all starts to go nuts again.  

This run-up started at around $70. This entire time people predicted adjustments (why I stay away from the speculation board). Many predicted a far greater run up than occurred-- some predictions topping $3,000.

The catalyst this time around was the Chinese news, and nobody could have predicted that.

Your broad statement "Within a week or so, it will drop in value by about 30%" is completely unsupported by history. In fact, if you followed your advice you would have sold around $650-- or hell, $350 or less.

I'm sure there is money to be made in trading-- but even including this weekend's adjustment, Bitcoin is up 705% in the last 6 months. Simplistic "sell when it goes up" strategies don't apply.

I agree completely with your last piece of advice.

[Desensitizer]

Exit Drills can be a really bad idea. The whole notion of investing well lies in a very simple principal: buy low sell high. Panic selling when things are dropping is not a good plan.