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Author Topic: 2013-12-06 ZDNet: Bitcoin: It's not just loopy tulip land, it's worse  (Read 2827 times)
niothor
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December 06, 2013, 04:56:46 PM
 #21

Bubbles are typically very local and specific.

Tulip mania? Netherlands.

South Sea Bubble? England, although events in Spain played a role in unseating this one.

Dot Com Bubble? United States. (Though this fails the true "bubble" test, as the NASDAQ still operates today, and some of the individual stocks are still around at lower valuations.)

You could make a distinction between communication networks and the lack thereof, but the overriding point is, they're very localized. Enter Bitcoin. It is, by its very nature, global. It has also shown resilience in the face of rather volatile price movements. Bubbles don't inflate, pop, then re-inflate. They typically go to a minimal value - either just as good as zero, and/or interest fades completely and it isn't traded anymore.

Bitcoin has experienced multiple events in this regard. It isn't dead, it most certainly IS traded all over the world, and the adoption curve on a longer-term perspective certainly has some headroom. For Bitcoin to be a bubble, every single country in the world would have to been involved already, and every single participant would have to decide to not use it anymore after a period of brief excess.

I consider that probability to be extremely remote. But, it never stops the critics, does it.


Real estate bubble? It was global!
Also , at the time of the tulip bubble , Europe was the world.

With everything collapsing around of course people tend to say that anything that gains value and they don't have a clue about it is a bubble.


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December 06, 2013, 10:34:00 PM
 #22

So Bitcoin may indeed be "worse", but only for those who don't have any.

Unless you have a specific price at which point you are going to cash out, you will be in exactly the same position as those you now scorn. It's not a question of if, just when. BitCoin's cool, but human greed exceeds everything in existence.
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December 06, 2013, 10:59:42 PM
 #23

Bubbles are typically very local and specific.

Tulip mania? Netherlands.

South Sea Bubble? England, although events in Spain played a role in unseating this one.

Dot Com Bubble? United States. (Though this fails the true "bubble" test, as the NASDAQ still operates today, and some of the individual stocks are still around at lower valuations.)

You could make a distinction between communication networks and the lack thereof, but the overriding point is, they're very localized. Enter Bitcoin. It is, by its very nature, global. It has also shown resilience in the face of rather volatile price movements. Bubbles don't inflate, pop, then re-inflate. They typically go to a minimal value - either just as good as zero, and/or interest fades completely and it isn't traded anymore.

Bitcoin has experienced multiple events in this regard. It isn't dead, it most certainly IS traded all over the world, and the adoption curve on a longer-term perspective certainly has some headroom. For Bitcoin to be a bubble, every single country in the world would have to been involved already, and every single participant would have to decide to not use it anymore after a period of brief excess.

I consider that probability to be extremely remote. But, it never stops the critics, does it.


Real estate bubble? It was global!
Also , at the time of the tulip bubble , Europe was the world.

With everything collapsing around of course people tend to say that anything that gains value and they don't have a clue about it is a bubble.


Nope the real estate bubble wasn't global. Many countries did have a bubble and crash between 2001-2007 e.g. Spain, Ireland, US. On the hand many countries didn't have any bubble e.g. Germany, Italy, Poland, Brazil. In other countries the bubble continues to grow from 2001 e.g. UK, Canada, France.

It looks like Germany might be starting to have a bubble at the moment but I think the point is clear, global real estate markets are not in sync. There's always property rising and falling somewhere in the world.
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December 06, 2013, 11:24:29 PM
 #24

To say the least, everyone talks about the tulip mania, what happened after the mania? Didn't Netherland become a kingdom of tulips, until this day? Everyone talks about the dotcom bubble, what happened after the bubble? Didn't the IT technology transform nearly every aspect of our life? Following the same pattern, Bitcoin would have seen worldwide adoption after the bubble, not bad at all! What's all this doom and gloom about?


I like your comments; I'll certainly use this.  I guess to bake a cake you gotta break some eggs.

However, I'm guessing the thing that people are worried about is who gets in last may never recover.


I've been finding myself having debates about "zero sum games" with people who are new to bitcoin.  They seem to think that somehow this is a zero sum game, while I argue that everybody* wins (some obviously more than others). 

Bitcoin is the great middle-man destroyer.  It has the potential to annihilate huge swaths of leaching and waste in the economy.  We are staring at a great opportunity for human progress. 

*Everybody may not include certain dinosaurs in banking and government.  But I do expect banking, government, and even tax authorities to benefit in aggregate.

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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December 07, 2013, 01:08:07 AM
 #25

Comparing tulips and bitcoins is absurd. They are two completely different things in two completely different ages. Its a flower vs a currency, and you are looking at a time without in-depth price fluctuation analysis and the internet vs constant scrutiny and trading on a global real-time scale. Tulips may be a lesson in the investment craze, but they are not a good comparison to cryptocurrency.
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December 07, 2013, 02:49:02 AM
Last edit: December 07, 2013, 03:03:01 AM by johnyj
 #26

Central banks usually intervene in the Forex market when their currency are heavily sold. Same, miners are distributed central banks for bitcoin, in order to protect the credit of the money they issue, they will step in the market and buy coins to intervene when coin price is falling hard, this rule out the possibility that coin's value will go to zero

And there are also other players like mining companies and hedge funds, they all have a motivation to support the exchange price of bitcoin to make their business more profitable


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