Gold: I smell a trap

[cypherdoc]

yeah.. this is life.... its ambiguous all the time...

I see your point that news are overall very bearish even in mainstream, but this fits to the third wave behavior.. third waves are "the point of recognition" where finally all is negative AND prices fall (and the contrarian view does not work anymore, expect for short term bounces from oversold conditions)

problem with this is sentiment is negative but the market is going UP.

do you realize how lucky you are to be getting paid to do this?  me; all i get is grief.  some guys just have all the luck.

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[cypherdoc]

@Melbustus:  you ok now?.......good......i thought so   

[cypherdoc]

remember what i said about a wave 3...

[miscreanity]

I'm closing my minor TLT 118 put position for a marginal profit. If Europe erupts now, there will be strong outflows from the EU. Two recipients of that will be USD & USTs.

If it comes out that the US is providing liquidity to the EFSF via the IMF and other methods, mayhem breaks out. As much as I think that to be the case, I seriously doubt anything related to it will be disclosed anytime soon. Certain market actions may be counter-intuitive for these reasons over the next few months.

Gold remains on target for the $2,000+ range. The last spot price dip below $1,750 was on virtually zero volume - very strong hands are holding the remaining contracts. Almost nobody is on-board the gold train for lack of certainty and most still won't arrive until new highs are attained.

Meanwhile, CME open interest (GC and SI contracts in particular) remains stubbornly high even for December. Contracts have been rolling into February and March (GC & SI, respectively) with additional demand at a nearly 2:1 increase means the CME's problem won't dissipate until Q2 2012 at the earliest.

[netrin]

Thought you gentlemen could appreciate this two year old CDO thesis written by a young Julliard and Harvard hottie smartie:
http://www.hks.harvard.edu/m-rcbg/students/dunlop/2009-CDOmeltdown.pdf

[cypherdoc]

guys, i'm gonna be locking down this thread sometime in about a week so i can start my own paid subscription website.  essentially i will be moving this thread over to my new site called Financial Risk Analytics and continue posting over there in the same form and manner i have done here.  right now its open for all comers until i get it locked down for subscribers only.  take a look at the website and give me constructive feedback if you will.  hopefully many of you will subscribe and help it along.

Financial Risk Analytics

[netrin]

Graphically pretty. Are you planning to throw it behind a pay wall?

[cypherdoc]

Graphically pretty. Are you planning to throw it behind a pay wall?

yes.  given how much time and effort i put into this stuff, i hope people will recognize the value.

[netrin]

I'm always willing to donate/tip on great leads, but I wouldn't pay to participate.

[molecular]

guys, i'm gonna be locking down this thread sometime in about a week so i can start my own paid subscription website.  essentially i will be moving this thread over to my new site called Financial Risk Analytics and continue posting over there in the same form and manner i have done here.  right now its open for all comers until i get it locked down for subscribers only.  take a look at the website and give me constructive feedback if you will.  hopefully many of you will subscribe and help it along.

Financial Risk Analytics

This is sad, I wont be able to subscribe. I don't trade, am just following out of pure interest.

Thanks for your posts in this thread, it's been fun while it lasted.

[cypherdoc]

I have added PayPal as a payment method to my website.

[ElectricMucus]

cypherdoc unless you are sharing your account you should not refer to yourself as 'we' - that's bad for your mental health...

[cypherdoc]

cypherdoc unless you are sharing your account you should not refer to yourself as 'we' - that's bad for your mental health...

thanks for all your constructive contributions to this Forum.

[Melbustus]

This is sad, I wont be able to subscribe. I don't trade, am just following out of pure interest.

Thanks for your posts in this thread, it's been fun while it lasted.

I feel the same way. It's been very interesting, but I'm not actively trading, and wouldn't pay to subscribe. Furthermore, it's the been the back-and-forth discussion that's been of real interest - you're going to lose the openness that generates that on a subscription site. This thread has had a lot of traffic, but I suspect very very few readers would convert to paying customers. Please don't take that to mean I don't think this thread has value, or that your insights have not been rather interesting; I just don't think it's going to translate well.

Edit: if you can produce a significant bulk of more article-style content (hopefully with some dating back a number or years that proved prescient), that would likely work a lot better.

Also, you'll need some changing content in front of the paywall for SEO...

[cypherdoc]

This is sad, I wont be able to subscribe. I don't trade, am just following out of pure interest.

Thanks for your posts in this thread, it's been fun while it lasted.

I feel the same way. It's been very interesting, but I'm not actively trading, and wouldn't pay to subscribe. Furthermore, it's the been the back-and-forth discussion that's been of real interest - you're going to lose the openness that generates that on a subscription site. This thread has had a lot of traffic, but I suspect very very few readers would convert to paying customers. Please don't take that to mean I don't think this thread has value, or that your insights have not been rather interesting; I just don't think it's going to translate well.

Edit: if you can produce a significant bulk of more article-style content (hopefully with some dating back a number or years that proved prescient), that would likely work a lot better.

Also, you'll need some changing content in front of the paywall for SEO...

Thanks for the suggestions.  i'll certainly take them into account.

i realize that FRA won't be for those who don't trade and its difficult to tell just how many here do. 

As a professional trader i don't have any articles from the past.  what i do is trade.  i would point out that the detailed substance of this thread, due to the discourse you mentioned, is a unique experience into the almost realtime thoughts of a professional trader and his understanding of how money and the economy works for a solid 3 months straight.  i'd say my evolving recommendations have been pretty spot on and the timing extraordinary.  a critic might complain that gold is right where it was when i opened this thread and they'd be right but if you follow the evolution of this thread and my recommendations along the way about closing my shorts one would have made money. my methods involve swing or positional trading which span weeks to months.  if you look carefully since the beginning of this thread i have made some extraordinary calls in gold, silver, stocks and UST's since 8/9/11.  my personal acct is up 65% since that date and i have a long career of making consistently good calls.  no way to prove that though w/o turning over all my records.  while the majority of hedge funds were losing big money over the month of October, i made the call to go long and close shorts on 10/6/11 which ultimately led to the best monthly return in the stock mkt since 1976.  its all here for the record.

i never even put up a donation address.  my intentions here were to help ppl along in the Bitcoin economy and i hope i accomplished that.  FRA will be a way to feel i'm being appreciated for my efforts.  if it doesn't work out its no big deal for me as it won't be my main source of income no matter how successful it becomes.  i'm hoping ppl here will give me a chance.  i don't think they'll be disappointed.

[Melbustus]

...my personal acct is up 65% since that date and i have a long career of making consistently good calls.  no way to prove that though w/o turning over all my records...

I think trading records would go a long way. It would show that not only are you accurate with respect to your macro view, but that you can, and do, translate that into actionable trades. You can anonymize your records, only show percentages, whatever, but having such data would probably make the site far more interesting to people from the start.

Of course, you'd have people wondering "if this is for real, why is this guy letting me coat-tail his trades for $24/mo", but I think you can probably find reasonable ways to answer that.

[Dusty]

You can anonymize your records, only show percentages, whatever, but having such data would probably make the site far more interesting to people from the start.

It would need a leap of faith anyway, since we are unable to verify those records due to the fact they can be easily fabricated.

The only way to do it is to publish all your calls on your blog just after you do them in real, so that everybody can verify them at any later time.

This could also give an added benefit because if you are generally right on the predictions then more and more ppl will follow your directions and we know that the more ppl does the same thing, the more that prediction auto-fulfills.

Anyway in my opinion the interesting thing of this thread is the debate with miscreanity and others, not your personal belief.

Without the debate, all the interesting bits are gone.

Too bad, I'll continue buying gold ;-)

[cypherdoc]

if anyone is still wondering why the stock mkt is rallying, come on over to FRA .

[ElectricMucus]

if anyone is still wondering why the stock mkt is rallying, come on over to FRA .

Does that mean you capitulated on BTC and are leaving us? 

[cypherdoc]

No.  i'm just seeing that the best opportunities right now lie outside Bitcoin.  Bitcoin is a longterm investment that i've tucked away.