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Author Topic: Are we about to witness something epic?  (Read 5480 times)
Bitcoin Swami
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August 09, 2011, 09:54:26 PM
 #21

I think there's a little wisdom to be found in almost every theory I've heard re: the patterns and trends in bitcoin.

The "long slow slide" can probably be attributed to the regular sale of mining proceeds - a constant, but slight, downward pressure on the market. The rallies we've seen are those times when market pressure from speculators, new investors etc. outweighs the mining proceeds. The fact that we've seen no serious peaks or valleys for some time now (without an accompanying selloff anyway) would seem to indicate that we have enough regular transaction volume to mostly cancel out the slow fall from the mining proceed sales on an average day. This bodes well for the bitcoin network for numerous obvious reasons. We've also seen multiple times now that the market tends to recover from major selloff events, albeit quite slowly.

I'd say if we can get a few solid weeks without any more hacks, selloffs etc. we could easily be looking at a decent rally.

A few more articles/segments in mainstream news couldn't hurt much either Wink

Yes I'd be prefectly fine with no news at all.  I feel like a battered wife after the last month or 2.  Still going home to her husband Mr. Bitcoin trying to please him.
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August 09, 2011, 10:12:35 PM
 #22

EVEN I THOUGHT BITCOIN WAS DEAD!!



bitcoin works on faith and I think a little faith is being restored. That guy who made the $120,000 investment made a great investment.

I would feel a little safer if it was a gradual increase after we were all sure the decline was over, it still feels we could slip back down any minute Undecided

the investor will likely just sell back out if he see's he hasn't kicked off a rally, The fear of going through 10 then free falling to 5's again will be on his mind. its on ficken mine  Grin

Agreed, it's still far from the $15 range we were seeing just a week or two ago.

I'd love for it to shoot up again, but you guys are insane, it goes down 6-8 bucks over a week then comes back 5 and you think it's rallying.

it's unhealthy thinking



+1

I think it's just as likely to drop back down again, especially since this jump wasn't accompanied by any good news, promotion, or anything new at all.  Hash rates continue to fall and all the press has been super negative.  MyBitcoin and the Bitcoin Police have only brought up more sketchiness and mistrust.  I'm still sticking by my prediction that it will bottom out around $5-6 within the next month or so.  Unfortunately, I can also think of scenarios where it crashes below $1 too... but I'll stay optimistic for now.

It's funny how hackers flooding the market with 75K coins from mybitcoin.com is called a "crash". When someone with 150k buys up the market it's not a rally it's "temporary blip".

Hash rates have nothing to do with anything. Bitcoin works just as well at 1.5k ghash as it does at 15k ghash.

Bad press? You heard the press on the USD? Do you still use USD? Have you moved all your savings out of USD? Do you still get paid in USD?

People use Bitcoins as a currency. What that currency trades for on the open market doesn't mean jack squat. Sellers don't sell at a fixed BTC price. They sell at a fixed USD price. Bitcoins could be worth 10 cents and it doesn't change how these transactions work. When you go buy $50 worth of bitcoins to buy that bong you've had your eye on, does it really matter if you buy 100 bitcoins with that $50 or 2 bitcoins? The buyer/seller don't really care.

The people who care are the miners, investors, day traders, get rich quick crew. None of those people are needed. 80% of miners could fuck off and it would barely be a blip in the community. An 80% exodus would take 2-3 weeks plenty of time for difficulty to adjust. Even if there was a span where transactions took 15 minutes instead of 5 to confirm? Big deal. Eventually it adjusts and things are back to normal. No more trading bots? Sign me up for that. Get rid of the drama queens, the pumper and dumpers, get rich quick crew, and most of the cancer of the bitcoin community is gone.

Trust me they're not nearly as important as they'd tell you they are. And the USD value of BTC isn't nearly as important as people tell you it is. In fact, it isn't important at all. If Bitcoins magically stayed at $2 for the next 10 years it would work just fine. People mine at a loss at various folding projects, lots of people don't pay for electricity, there'd be plenty of miners still cranking away.
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August 09, 2011, 10:20:49 PM
 #23

Bitcoin works just as well at 1.5k ghash as it does at 15k ghash.

What's a kilo-giga-hash?

Nah I'm just playing. I agree with some of your other statements, like these:
Quote
It's funny how hackers flooding the market with 75K coins from mybitcoin.com is called a "crash". When someone with 150k buys up the market it's not a rally it's "temporary blip".
Quote
Bad press? You heard the press on the USD? Do you still use USD? Have you moved all your savings out of USD? Do you still get paid in USD?
Quote
Sellers don't sell at a fixed BTC price. They sell at a fixed USD price.

So you're still ahead in my book, I just hate it when folks incorrectly combine SI prefixes Wink

For the record: 1,000 Gigahash (GH) = 1 Terahash (TH)  Grin

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August 09, 2011, 11:24:04 PM
 #24

EVEN I THOUGHT BITCOIN WAS DEAD!!



bitcoin works on faith and I think a little faith is being restored. That guy who made the $120,000 investment made a great investment.

I would feel a little safer if it was a gradual increase after we were all sure the decline was over, it still feels we could slip back down any minute Undecided

the investor will likely just sell back out if he see's he hasn't kicked off a rally, The fear of going through 10 then free falling to 5's again will be on his mind. its on ficken mine  Grin

Agreed, it's still far from the $15 range we were seeing just a week or two ago.

I'd love for it to shoot up again, but you guys are insane, it goes down 6-8 bucks over a week then comes back 5 and you think it's rallying.

it's unhealthy thinking



+1

I think it's just as likely to drop back down again, especially since this jump wasn't accompanied by any good news, promotion, or anything new at all.  Hash rates continue to fall and all the press has been super negative.  MyBitcoin and the Bitcoin Police have only brought up more sketchiness and mistrust.  I'm still sticking by my prediction that it will bottom out around $5-6 within the next month or so.  Unfortunately, I can also think of scenarios where it crashes below $1 too... but I'll stay optimistic for now.

It's funny how hackers flooding the market with 75K coins from mybitcoin.com is called a "crash". When someone with 150k buys up the market it's not a rally it's "temporary blip".


It's because the "crash" wasn't caused by 75k coins, but by the loss of faith in the currency by everyone who heard the news.  The stolen coins may have precipitated the sell-off, but everyone responded based on their own feelings and readings of the fundamentals.


Hash rates have nothing to do with anything. Bitcoin works just as well at 1.5k ghash as it does at 15k ghash.


Yes, but my point is that miners respond to the prices, and turn off their rigs when it stops being profitable for them.


Bad press? You heard the press on the USD? Do you still use USD? Have you moved all your savings out of USD? Do you still get paid in USD?


Yes, because the USD is backed by the US government, which despite the recent news is still the world's only superpower.  Bitcoin is backed by the faith of anonymous people on the internet.


People use Bitcoins as a currency. What that currency trades for on the open market doesn't mean jack squat. Sellers don't sell at a fixed BTC price. They sell at a fixed USD price. Bitcoins could be worth 10 cents and it doesn't change how these transactions work. When you go buy $50 worth of bitcoins to buy that bong you've had your eye on, does it really matter if you buy 100 bitcoins with that $50 or 2 bitcoins? The buyer/seller don't really care.

Trust me they're not nearly as important as they'd tell you they are. And the USD value of BTC isn't nearly as important as people tell you it is.

Except that only works if you can convert between USD/BTC immediately.  Otherwise, the price and volatility matter tremendously.  If I can lose 20-30% of the value of a transaction between the time I get one confirmation and completing the trade on Mt. Gox, then fuck yeah it matters, since I gotta pay the bills in fiat.


In fact, it isn't important at all. If Bitcoins magically stayed at $2 for the next 10 years it would work just fine. People mine at a loss at various folding projects, lots of people don't pay for electricity, there'd be plenty of miners still cranking away.

Yes, but people generally donate computing time for worthy causes.  They want to see their stats increase for a reason, and if BTC fails and only a few geeks use it for shits and giggles then that's not a good reason.

However, you're right that if it stayed at $2 it would be great.  Nobody is going to assume the risk of accepting BTC with the volatility this high.  Right now it's riskier than investing in a penny stock and it's just a fun game for naive geeks to play with.


The people who care are the miners, investors, day traders, get rich quick crew. None of those people are needed. 80% of miners could fuck off and it would barely be a blip in the community. An 80% exodus would take 2-3 weeks plenty of time for difficulty to adjust. Even if there was a span where transactions took 15 minutes instead of 5 to confirm? Big deal. Eventually it adjusts and things are back to normal.


The miners are absolutely essential to the success of BTC.  Once it drops low enough, such as your 80% scenario, the integrity of the network is put in jeopardy and double-spend attacks etc. become much more of a threat.  Not to mention, a quick crash could lead to an instant exodus of miners which could leave the remaining miners unable to reach the next difficulty adjustment like we see with Namecoin.

No more trading bots? Sign me up for that.

Trading bots are important for liquidity and stability, two things we absolutely need if we want to start the transition from fiat --> BTC in any measurable amounts.

Get rid of the drama queens, the pumper and dumpers, get rich quick crew, and most of the cancer of the bitcoin community is gone.

I see you come from /b/ ಠ_ಠ

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August 09, 2011, 11:55:14 PM
 #25

To everyone who hopes that the media stays away from BTC and that the price stabilizes.  I share your sentiment but I think the person who invested majorly in BTC knew something that you did not.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=36042.0;topicseen

With I don't expect this to be headline news, I expect it will deal enough coverage for us to see a significant rally in prices in about 2 weeks.  In which case some people are going to get very well off.

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August 09, 2011, 11:57:16 PM
 #26

Looks like I'm not the only one whose funds just cleared!

Still around.
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August 10, 2011, 12:11:04 AM
 #27

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August 10, 2011, 12:19:26 AM
 #28

Looks like we might be on another upswing..go the BULLS

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August 10, 2011, 12:25:07 AM
 #29

Looks like we might be on another upswing..go the BULLS

How do you figure that?  After this most recent little scuffle we're essentially back to where we've been for the past 10 hours - between $10.00 and 10.50.
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August 10, 2011, 12:52:24 AM
 #30

Looks like we might be on another upswing..go the BULLS

How do you figure that?  After this most recent little scuffle we're essentially back to where we've been for the past 10 hours - between $10.00 and 10.50.

Ah yes I was referring to the push back from $9.50 to $10.20

And I wouldnt call this a scuffle...its starting to look more like a bullfight

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August 10, 2011, 11:37:11 AM
 #31

Someone did try something epic yesterday by launching a flurry of trading activity, presumably in an attempt to raise the price.  I would hate to be the sucker who bought at the intra day peak of over $12.  Maybe it was the pumper, maybe it was another trader who was being pumped.  A lot of money went in and raised the average price by over a dollar.  After that feeding frenzy it has remained very stable.  Very interesting.

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August 10, 2011, 12:07:57 PM
 #32

The "something epic" we are about to witness is the difficulty jumping to 200k, now that everyone turned their mining rigs back on.

Whoever bought that 15k btc should've waited until next week with it, so the difficulty doesn't get raised for at least that long.

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August 10, 2011, 12:36:55 PM
 #33

The "something epic" we are about to witness is the difficulty jumping to 200k, now that everyone turned their mining rigs back on.

Whoever bought that 15k btc should've waited until next week with it, so the difficulty doesn't get raised for at least that long.

I think you meant to say "2m" instead of "200k".
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August 10, 2011, 04:58:31 PM
 #34

The "something epic" we are about to witness is the difficulty jumping to 200k, now that everyone turned their mining rigs back on.

Whoever bought that 15k btc should've waited until next week with it, so the difficulty doesn't get raised for at least that long.
Lol I doubt who ever bought gives 2 damns about the difficulty...

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August 14, 2011, 01:37:59 AM
 #35

There are bad guys out there who will want to make BTC appear a bad investment, sitting around watching the graphs is a sure way to indigestion, it's manipulated, they want you to be depressed, they want you to abandon bitcoin.
Best thing we can do is ignore the charts and concentrate instead on setting up or supporting businesses that accept bitcoin.

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August 14, 2011, 05:29:09 AM
 #36

Your LAST chance to buy in at $10!

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August 14, 2011, 07:22:44 PM
 #37

You mean at nearly $11.  Heck, if you dawdle too long $12 might be wishful thinking.  People are believers again, difficulty estimates are starting to creep back up.  $20/BTC by end of the month!
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August 14, 2011, 07:38:47 PM
 #38

Please, not another insane rally. Stable prices makes for a thriving economy with real businesess trading tangible goods and real services! Smiley

But, I guess the free market is free!

Do what you want cause the market is free, YOU ARE A BITCOIN!

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August 14, 2011, 07:45:24 PM
 #39

Please, not another insane rally. Stable prices makes for a thriving economy with real businesess trading tangible goods and real services! Smiley

But, I guess the free market is free!

Do what you want cause the market is free, YOU ARE A BITCOIN!

Yes, another insane rally.  Bitcoin's success depends mainly on the size of the bitcoin community.  And nothing attracts people like success.  Like it or not, the past "insane rallies" have conservatively doubled the size of the bitcoin community every time.  This casino requires more patrons.

We won't be a household name until we're famous, in other words.  Being known is not optional.  Now get out there and spread the word!

Another quadrupling in difficulty will guarantee $20 as a bitcoin price floor.  A currency designed to deflate that actually does?  That WILL attract merchants.
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August 14, 2011, 08:16:29 PM
 #40

Please, not another insane rally. Stable prices makes for a thriving economy with real businesess trading tangible goods and real services! Smiley

But, I guess the free market is free!

Do what you want cause the market is free, YOU ARE A BITCOIN!

Yes, another insane rally.  Bitcoin's success depends mainly on the size of the bitcoin community.  And nothing attracts people like success.  Like it or not, the past "insane rallies" have conservatively doubled the size of the bitcoin community every time.  This casino requires more patrons.

We won't be a household name until we're famous, in other words.  Being known is not optional.  Now get out there and spread the word!

Another quadrupling in difficulty will guarantee $20 as a bitcoin price floor.  A currency designed to deflate that actually does?  That WILL attract merchants.

All I hope for, is that it happens slowly, so it's not another bubble.

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