[HAVELOCK](SFI) Seedcoin Fund I

[havelock]

2nd UPDATE

We are pleased to announce the upcoming IPO for Seedco Holding

http://www.Seedco.in

Seedcoin Fund is the first global seed-stage Bitcoin startup fund. The funds in bitcoin raised through this public offering will be invested in a portfolio of Bitcoin startups to be incubated by Seedcoin.

Seedcoin is a Bitcoin startup virtual incubator aiming to fund the creators of cryptocurrency related products and services such as exchanges, payment solutions, applications, mobile tech, wallets, and guide them through the first key stages of their development.


SFI aims to achieve Bitcoin-denominated capital appreciation and/or return through investments in a diversified portfolio of startups worldwide.

The startups will earn revenues from different Bitcoin-related services in a variety of geographical locations. SFI unit holders are entitled to receive Bitcoin-denominated dividends indirectly from the startups that have dividend distribution plans.

Funds raised through the SFI listing shall mainly be allocated to the Bitcoin startups and a portion shall be allocated to the management company for its operations and provision of fund management services.

SFI management company is comprised of a team of three members located in Hong Kong, Singapore and London with relevant experience in fund management, venture capital, software engineering, trading and entrepreneurship.

Offering Structure

SFI Fund will offer a total of 10,000,000 units, or 100% of Seedco Holdings Limited, all 100% of the Fund to be floated on HavelockInvestments.com.

2,000,000 (20%) will be offered on December 12th, 2013, Price Per Unit BTC0.001

500,000 Units per Block for a Total of 4 Blocks

1st Block Sold Out***

2nd Block Sold Out***

3rd Block Sold Out***

4th BlockSold Out***

8,000,000 (80%) will be offered at a later date within FY2014.

The offer on December 12th, 2013 will represent twenty percent (20%) of the units of the SFI (total units 10,000,000). These units will be offered exclusively through the HavelockInvestments.com website.


Link:  https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=SFI
Public Offering: https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=SFI#ui-tabs-3

Reports
https://www.havelockinvestments.com/reports.php

For a list of Companies Funded by Seedco and more information:
http://www.seedco.in/home/havelock

[1713487487]

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[1713487487]

1713487487

[jimmothy]

Interesting.

[seedcoin]

The number of totally bizarre and baseless IPOs that are starting up everywhere is ridiculous.
The boat has sailed on suckers willing to throw their BTC blindlessly in to "profitable" ventures.

Until notions of "success" change for BTC securities, I don't foresee success.

The valuation of this company, assuming $1000/BTC is $10,000,000.

Absolutely ludicrous, in my opinion.

$10,000,000 is not the valuation of a company, nor of Seedcoin, this is a fund whereby 89% of the funds raised will be invested in several bitcoin startups. Out of the first raise of BTC2,000 we will invest in seven startups, payment processors, bitcoin wallets, bitcoin exchanges.. in various locations around the world. So there is not a single valuation but the valuations of the investment targets to consider. Some of these startups are at revenue and even at profit stage. For BTC10,000 to be raised over a few raises Seedcoin will help developing a large number of startups and therefore the whole bitcoin ecosystem, this is our main motivation and interest.

[Herp]

I've just watched an interview with you. The project is interesting.

However, are you aware about the recent change in Havelock policy that doesn't allow you to withdraw all the funds at once and invest, but only gradually and you'll have to justify to them how all the money is spent. Don't you see this as a potential issue, having to justify yourself to the exchange? It's not a practice I've seen elsewhere.  

[seedcoin]

I've just watched an interview with you. The project is interesting.

However, are you aware about the recent change in Havelock policy that doesn't allow you to withdraw all the funds at once and invest, but only gradually and you'll have to justify to them how all the money is spent. Don't you see this as a potential issue, having to justify yourself to the exchange? It's not a practice I've seen elsewhere.  

Hi,

Actually this is not a new feature at Havelock, I have been talking to Havelockinvestments since August and the fact that funds must be withdrawn gradually and justified was already mentioned and accepted by us. We have no issue with this and we feel it helps assuring funds are used appropriately.

[crumbs]

The number of totally bizarre and baseless IPOs that are starting up everywhere is ridiculous.
The boat has sailed on suckers willing to throw their BTC blindlessly in to "profitable" ventures.

Until notions of "success" change for BTC securities, I don't foresee success.

The valuation of this company, assuming $1000/BTC is $10,000,000.

Absolutely ludicrous, in my opinion.

$10,000,000 is not the valuation of a company, nor of Seedcoin, this is a fund whereby 89% of the funds raised will be invested in several bitcoin startups. Out of the first raise of BTC2,000 we will invest in seven startups, payment processors, bitcoin wallets, bitcoin exchanges.. in various locations around the world. So there is not a single valuation but the valuations of the investment targets to consider. Some of these startups are at revenue and even at profit stage. For BTC10,000 to be raised over a few raises Seedcoin will help developing a large number of startups and therefore the whole bitcoin ecosystem, this is our main motivation and interest.

I tried reading your prospectus, but there were so many TLAs managing other TLAs that i lost track.

What i make out thus far:
1. You wish to raise $10,000,000 with an unsecured loan from us, so that you could, in turn, issue loans to other startups.
2. If things work out well, you reserve the right to change the terms of the prospectus at any point in time.
3. Somewhere along the line we expect to see profit, but exactly how is unclear from your prospectus.
4. Though you admit that your company is not worth 10 mil, you nevertheless are selling shares in as if that is worth 10 mil.  That's what the shares add up to.

Could you clear this up?  I'm not sure if i should be investing my BTC in your firm, or in a promising flash game site which is also trying to raise a few mil. on Havelock (Havelock, whose own IPO already failed to raise half the money it set out to make, but is being traded anyhow.  On Havelock.  Yeah.).
Anyhow, the flash site doesn't work, but its owner is very enthusiastic about its future.  Help me decide?
Thanks.

[seedcoin]

I tried reading your prospectus, but there were so many TLAs managing other TLAs that i lost track.

What i make out thus far:
1. You wish to raise $10,000,000 with an unsecured loan from us, so that you could, in turn, issue loans to other startups.
2. If things work out well, you reserve the right to change the terms of the prospectus at any point in time.
3. Somewhere along the line we expect to see profit, but exactly how is unclear from your prospectus.
4. Though you admit that your company is not worth 10 mil, you nevertheless are selling shares in as if that is worth 10 mil.  That's what the shares add up to.

Could you clear this up?  I'm not sure if i should be investing my BTC in your firm, or in a promising flash game site which is also trying to raise a few mil. on Havelock (Havelock, whose own IPO already failed to raise half the money it set out to make, but is being traded anyhow.  On Havelock.  Yeah.).
Anyhow, the flash site doesn't work, but its owner is very enthusiastic about its future.  Help me decide?
Thanks.

Hi Crumbs,

We are helping Bitcoin startups with attractive businesses prospects and some already profitable. Our structure is quite similar to standard funds whereby a management company helps a fund to find viable and interesting opportunities in a specific sector or industry, in our case, cryptocurrencies. A fund is mainly a company holding other companies shares so this is why the management team is quite important in the startup selection and investment process and management of the fund. However, I think you should mainly look at the startups since they will be the recipient of most of the bitcoins raised, a small portion of the funds raised will go towards ensuring we can keep providing services to the startups and their founders. The Bitcoin startups are located in various countries around the world and are responding to different needs or solving specific problems in the bitcoin ecosystem. Our company's value is actually a completely different topic which is not part of this IPO, the BTC10,000 we totally wish to raise - over a few offerings - is the amount of bitcoin the fund will invest. The unit holders will hold 100% of the fund. The fund will itself owns shares of the startups so the BTC10,000 should be considered as the available funds to invest in startups and the profit comes from the profit of these startups, and possibly dividends of these startups. Instead of buying units of seven bitcoin companies through seven offerings you have the possibility to buy units of a fund which plans to invest in seven startups (for now) and many more later.

I hope this is clearer, let me know if you have any more questions.

thanks

[crumbs]

..,
Hi Crumbs,

We are helping Bitcoin startups with attractive businesses prospects and some already profitable. Our structure is quite similar to standard funds whereby a management company helps a fund to find viable and interesting opportunities in a specific sector or industry, in our case, cryptocurrencies. A fund is mainly a company holding other companies shares so this is why the management team is quite important in the startup selection and investment process and management of the fund. However, I think you should mainly look at the startups since they will be the recipient of most of the bitcoins raised, a small portion of the funds raised will go towards ensuring we can keep providing services to the startups and their founders. The Bitcoin startups are located in various countries around the world and are responding to different needs or solving specific problems in the bitcoin ecosystem. Our company's value is actually a completely different topic which is not part of this IPO, the BTC10,000 we totally wish to raise - over a few offerings - is the amount of bitcoin the fund will invest. The unit holders will hold 100% of the fund. The fund will itself owns shares of the startups so the BTC10,000 should be considered as the available funds to invest in startups and the profit comes from the profit of these startups, and possibly dividends of these startups. Instead of buying units of seven bitcoin companies through seven offerings you have the possibility to buy units of a fund which plans to invest in seven startups (for now) and many more later.

I hope this is clearer, let me know if you have any more questions.

thanks

I think i get it, i'll try to put it in my own words:

1.  I hand over my money.
2.  You take a management fee, and invest my money in another company.
3.  ...or not -- that's left up to you.
4.  If the companies you invest in make money, we both get rich.
5.  If they all lose money, i go broke and you still get paid.

6.  If the above terms are still not to your liking, you reserve the right to change them at any time.

7.  I also take a risk on you or your Panamanian exchange walking off with my coin.  It would be crass to suggest such a thing anywhere but in bitcoin securities.  In bitcoin securities, on the other hand, i would be insane not to.
People who were not directly scammed by asset issuers were scammed by the exchanges.  Havelock, the exchange you are associated with, has exactly zero assets trading above IPO price.  None.

*If any of the above is inaccurate, i welcome your corrections.

[wmcleod]

crumbs, ar9, sum up how i feel about this quite nicely.

[Korbman]

[...] However, I think you should mainly look at the startups since they will be the recipient of most of the bitcoins raised, a small portion of the funds raised will go towards ensuring we can keep providing services to the startups and their founders. The Bitcoin startups are located in various countries around the world and are responding to different needs or solving specific problems in the bitcoin ecosystem.

Let's focus on this for a moment.

Hive - grabhive.com
Hive is an attractive, easy-to-use Bitcoin wallet for OS X and Android that features a built-in app platform for merchant discovery. Hive provides an answer to the three fundamental questions: How can I Get, Send and Spend Bitcoin?

How does this startup provide a more thorough service (in terms of speed, security, and reliability) compared to blockchain.info or Bitcoin-QT wallets? How large is the market for a Mac OSX wallet, as compared to Windows or Linux?

Cryptopay - cryptopay.me
Bitcoin payment gateway. Simple to use and feature-rich service enabling merchants to accept bitcoins for their businesses.

What sets this startup apart from BitPay.com? In other words, why should I consider using Cryptopay instead of the *very* well known (and reliable) BitPay?

BTC.sx
It is the world’s first Bitcoin only derivative on a foreign exchange style trading platform enabling users to profit from rising or falling market movements.

This seems interesting, though I can't seem to find much information about them. Given an investment with you would partially be funding them, where I can I find a detailed prospectus for their company? Specifically, I'm looking for a business plan of sorts and at least some financials as to how they've done over the past month (it looks like they started early November).

Monero - Monero.co
Monero makes it easy for e-commerce merchants to accept Bitcoin by integrating existing payment processors to their store. Our free plugins and subscription-based SaaS solution uses sophisticated user-experience design to allow merchants to easily switch between payment processors and to view customer analytics in a well-designed user interface. We target e-commerce merchants that already accept Bitcoin through existing payment processors and merchants in rapidly expanding markets, like China and Latin America.

I dug into this a bit (briefly), and as far as I can tell it's just a simple application / plugin that allows you to accept Bitcoin payments through various exchanges. What's the business model behind this, and how does this differ from setting up a typical "Bitcoin Accepted" Mt. Gox button for payments?

MEXBT.com
The first professional exchange for cryptocurrencies in Mexico.

No qualms here; I think every country should have their own designated exchange to help facilitate local acceptance. What's the expected growth in the Mexican Bitcoin market?

zSIM
zSIM platform puts bitcoins on any SIM and any mobile phone for mass adoption.

I can't seem to find any information on this one. Is this sort of like a cold wallet, except stored on a SIM instead of, say, a USB drive?

GoCoin.com
GoCoin is a global merchant payment processing platform designed and built by top tier eCommerce experts

This seems to tie into Hive as noted above...and how does this differ from BitPay?


Turning to your prospectus...
I see there are 3 entities associated with this project; SFI (the "Fund"), SHL (the "Issuer"), and SML (the "Management"). Am I to presume all 3 are the same company? I ask because the prospectus notes (under Offering Structure) that SHL is offering 10,000,000 units (20% on December 12th, 80% sometime within the next 365 days), but also that:

The offering on December 12th, 2013 will represent twenty percent (20%) of the units of the SFI (total units 10,000,000). [...]

There's also a bit of a discrepency between your prospectus and website. On your website, you noted that BTC1,800 will be used for funding startups...but on the prospectus you noted only BTC1,780. I imagine this is just a miscalculated management fee.



All in all, it seems interesting...but I don't know what makes you stand out from the rest. Investing in your fund requires an understanding of all you invest in, since that's how I'm able to calculate my overall risk. If you're working with "Grade A" companies to help them get started, then I expect a detailed summary of each company you deal with since my investment will, in turn, be going to them in the end. Unfortunately in this case I don't see any of that. All I see is "hey, we've been helping this set of companies get started, but they need funding and we want our cut...want to invest?".

[Herp]

..,
Hi Crumbs,

We are helping Bitcoin startups with attractive businesses prospects and some already profitable. Our structure is quite similar to standard funds whereby a management company helps a fund to find viable and interesting opportunities in a specific sector or industry, in our case, cryptocurrencies. A fund is mainly a company holding other companies shares so this is why the management team is quite important in the startup selection and investment process and management of the fund. However, I think you should mainly look at the startups since they will be the recipient of most of the bitcoins raised, a small portion of the funds raised will go towards ensuring we can keep providing services to the startups and their founders. The Bitcoin startups are located in various countries around the world and are responding to different needs or solving specific problems in the bitcoin ecosystem. Our company's value is actually a completely different topic which is not part of this IPO, the BTC10,000 we totally wish to raise - over a few offerings - is the amount of bitcoin the fund will invest. The unit holders will hold 100% of the fund. The fund will itself owns shares of the startups so the BTC10,000 should be considered as the available funds to invest in startups and the profit comes from the profit of these startups, and possibly dividends of these startups. Instead of buying units of seven bitcoin companies through seven offerings you have the possibility to buy units of a fund which plans to invest in seven startups (for now) and many more later.

I hope this is clearer, let me know if you have any more questions.

thanks

I think i get it, i'll try to put it in my own words:

1.  I hand over my money.
2.  You take a management fee, and invest my money in another company.
3.  ...or not -- that's left up to you.
4.  If the companies you invest in make money, we both get rich.
5.  If they all lose money, i go broke and you still get paid.

This is how many ETFs and Index Funds operate, Crumbs. They take a management fee and invest your money into different companies. They basically provide you a service, easier way to diversify by investing in just one company.

These start-ups are also hard to get in via conventional means, most likely, so it also provides a way for people to invest early on.

Regarding the exchanges; I'd feel more confident if Havelock would allow the company to withdraw the proceeds immediately, not gradually. Saying it's a fail-safe to protect investors is stupid because an investor should perform due diligence before investing. If people don't trust the company, they won't invest in the first place.

This makes Havelock very attractive target for hackers and increases their incentives to just turn the lights off and walk away with a huge amount of BTC from several companies who didn't get to gradually spend all their IPO funds. This recent change in policy of theirs is bit disconcerting (and it is a recent policy change by the way).

[crumbs]

...This is how many ETFs and Index Funds operate, Crumbs...

This is how fiat ETFs operate.
With fiat, there are meddlesome government regulations and armed government thugs to enforce those regulations.
Bitcoin has nothing similar, so comparing fiat ETFs to bitcoin-based ones makes no sense.  Bitcoin investors can't count on someone else making laws & enforcing those laws to ensure that they aren't ripped of.
Bitcoin relies on cryptography and a powerful network to circumvent the problem of trust.  This doesn't imply that this problem magically disappears for everything touched by bitcoin.  It's very much there with bitcoin securities, as has been shown again and again.  That's why many fiat constructs can not simply be aped in bitcoin.

[Herp]

...This is how many ETFs and Index Funds operate, Crumbs...

This is how fiat ETFs operate.
With fiat, there are meddlesome government regulations and armed government thugs to enforce those regulations.
Bitcoin has nothing similar, so comparing fiat ETFs to bitcoin-based ones makes no sense.  Bitcoin investors can't count on someone else making laws & enforcing those laws to ensure that they aren't ripped of.
Bitcoin relies on cryptography and a powerful network to circumvent the problem of trust.  This doesn't imply that this problem magically disappears for everything touched by bitcoin.  It's very much there with bitcoin securities, as has been shown again and again.  That's why many fiat constructs can not simply be aped in bitcoin.

You mean like the MF Global case? Where were the government thugs when people needed them? latest development in that story http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/mf-global-managers-corzine-to-appeal-100-payout-ruling.html

[seedcoin]

I think i get it, i'll try to put it in my own words:

1.  I hand over my money.
2.  You take a management fee, and invest my money in another company.
3.  ...or not -- that's left up to you.
4.  If the companies you invest in make money, we both get rich.
5.  If they all lose money, i go broke and you still get paid.

6.  If the above terms are still not to your liking, you reserve the right to change them at any time.

7.  I also take a risk on you or your Panamanian exchange walking off with my coin.  It would be crass to suggest such a thing anywhere but in bitcoin securities.  In bitcoin securities, on the other hand, i would be insane not to.
People who were not directly scammed by asset issuers were scammed by the exchanges.  Havelock, the exchange you are associated with, has exactly zero assets trading above IPO price.  None.

*If any of the above is inaccurate, i welcome your corrections.

Hi Crumbs,

yes the decision to invest has to remain ours otherwise our service is not so clear nor in conformity to how we present it. The management fee is actually helping us providing services to the startups to make sure they do succeed. As I mentioned above some of the startups are in profit mode but of course as with any investments there is always a probability for some to lose money at any given time. When you say 'we both get rich' let me point out to the fact that 100% of the startup equity is held by the fund, this means if the companies make money the unit holders are in first line to get dividends or benefit from the appreciation of such equity. In this particular case the bitcoin will be  transferred soon after the IPO to the target companies and should not remain long on Havelockinvestments wallets which I believe have proven safe since they started operating and the Panamanian fund is licensed. Everyone knows reputation is the first asset in the bitcoin securities world and of course this offering is a clear sign of trust on our behalf for the Panama Fund but I leave it up to each potential investor to assess any risk related to buying units via Havelockinvestments.com.

[Herp]

@Seedcoin

You keep messing quoting posts and make people think those are actually your words not Crumbs'.

[seedcoin]

Hi Korbman,

Re. the startups I will reply a bit later but I will also give a chance to their founders to reply, so getting back to you soon on this.

---------------
Re. these issues:

> I see there are 3 entities associated with this project; SFI (the "Fund"), SHL (the "Issuer"), and SML (the "Management"). Am I to presume all 3 are the same company? I ask because the prospectus notes (under Offering Structure) that SHL is offering 10,000,000 units (20% on December 12th, 80% sometime within the next 365 days), but also that:
Quote
The offering on December 12th, 2013 will represent twenty percent (20%) of the units of the SFI (total units 10,000,000). [...]

my answer:

SFI is the Fund name, the company name is SHL so yes SHL = SFI we just use SFI to make it clear this is a fund. SML is a different company, it is the fund management company managing the funds raised by SHL. As you may know a 'fund' is just a company holding other companies' shares so it needs a management company to manage those funds.

re. the management fees they are set at 11% so startups will receive 89% of the amount raised so BTC1,780 in total.
-------------

All the startup business plans/presentations have been provided to Havelockinvestments.com I will arrange it so that potential investors of SFI will have access to these asap.

[crumbs]

...This is how many ETFs and Index Funds operate, Crumbs...

This is how fiat ETFs operate.
With fiat, there are meddlesome government regulations and armed government thugs to enforce those regulations.
Bitcoin has nothing similar, so comparing fiat ETFs to bitcoin-based ones makes no sense.  Bitcoin investors can't count on someone else making laws & enforcing those laws to ensure that they aren't ripped of.
Bitcoin relies on cryptography and a powerful network to circumvent the problem of trust.  This doesn't imply that this problem magically disappears for everything touched by bitcoin.  It's very much there with bitcoin securities, as has been shown again and again.  That's why many fiat constructs can not simply be aped in bitcoin.

You mean like the MF Global case? Where were the government thugs when people needed them? latest development in that story http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/mf-global-managers-corzine-to-appeal-100-payout-ruling.html

First, please understand that i'm not endorsing government regulation.  It is sufficient to acknowledge that it exists to realize the enormous differences between fiat and bitcoin ETFs.  Handing over your cash to any stranger who asks for it can't be justified with "A bank teller could steal it from you too."

[crumbs]

I think i get it, i'll try to put it in my own words:

1.  I hand over my money.
2.  You take a management fee, and invest my money in another company.
3.  ...or not -- that's left up to you.
4.  If the companies you invest in make money, we both get rich.
5.  If they all lose money, i go broke and you still get paid.

6.  If the above terms are still not to your liking, you reserve the right to change them at any time.

7.  I also take a risk on you or your Panamanian exchange walking off with my coin.  It would be crass to suggest such a thing anywhere but in bitcoin securities.  In bitcoin securities, on the other hand, i would be insane not to.
People who were not directly scammed by asset issuers were scammed by the exchanges.  Havelock, the exchange you are associated with, has exactly zero assets trading above IPO price.  None.

*If any of the above is inaccurate, i welcome your corrections.

Hi Crumbs,

yes the decision to invest has to remain ours otherwise our service is not so clear nor in conformity to how we present it. The management fee is actually helping us providing services to the startups to make sure they do succeed. As I mentioned above some of the startups are in profit mode but of course as with any investments there is always a probability for some to lose money at any given time. When you say 'we both get rich' let me point out to the fact that 100% of the startup equity is held by the fund¹, this means if the companies make money the unit holders are in first line to get dividends or benefit from the appreciation of such equity. In this particular case the bitcoin will be  transferred soon after the IPO to the target companies and should not remain long on Havelockinvestments² wallets which I believe have proven safe since they started operating and the Panamanian fund is licensed. Everyone knows reputation is the first asset in the bitcoin securities world and of course this offering is a clear sign of trust on our behalf for the Panama Fund³ but I leave it up to each potential investor to assess any risk related to buying units via Havelockinvestments.com.

(1) and (2) are mutually exclusive.  Either the IPO coin are distributed to the startups, or they are in Havelock's wallet, never both.
(3)  Considering the failure of Havelock's own IPO & the failure of other recent offering -- 7C (the multimillion-valued broken flash game site), i'd say that trust is relatively easy to come by.

[Herp]

...This is how many ETFs and Index Funds operate, Crumbs...

This is how fiat ETFs operate.
With fiat, there are meddlesome government regulations and armed government thugs to enforce those regulations.
Bitcoin has nothing similar, so comparing fiat ETFs to bitcoin-based ones makes no sense.  Bitcoin investors can't count on someone else making laws & enforcing those laws to ensure that they aren't ripped of.
Bitcoin relies on cryptography and a powerful network to circumvent the problem of trust.  This doesn't imply that this problem magically disappears for everything touched by bitcoin.  It's very much there with bitcoin securities, as has been shown again and again.  That's why many fiat constructs can not simply be aped in bitcoin.

You mean like the MF Global case? Where were the government thugs when people needed them? latest development in that story http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/mf-global-managers-corzine-to-appeal-100-payout-ruling.html

First, please understand that i'm not endorsing government regulation.  It is sufficient to acknowledge that it exists to realize the enormous differences between fiat and bitcoin ETFs.  Handing over your cash to any stranger who asks for it can't be justified with "A bank teller could steal it from you too."

Most important question that everyone should ask themselves in this Bitcoin investment space is very simple one: "Would it be in their best interest to scam me or not?" or "Do they have more to win by scamming or by playing fair."

In some cases answer is yes and in other cases answer is no.

[crumbs]

...
First, please understand that i'm not endorsing government regulation.  It is sufficient to acknowledge that it exists to realize the enormous differences between fiat and bitcoin ETFs.  Handing over your cash to any stranger who asks for it can't be justified with "A bank teller could steal it from you too."

Most important question that everyone should ask themselves in the Bitcoin space is very simple one: "Would it be in their best interest to scam me or not?" or "Do they have more to win by scamming or by playing fair."

In some cases answer is yes and in some cases answer is no.

The second question should be "what's the market like?"  Today's answer is "It's in a full-throttle nosedive."