Why Bitcoin will collapse in price.

[botany]

It has  collapsed many times, and it recovery quickly.

This time looks like it is different.
The recovery certainly wasn't quick. 

[1713911560]

1713911560

[porc]

It has  collapsed many times, and it recovery quickly.

Yes: In the beginning of a pyramid there are still plenty of new fools you can convince to buy from you your hot potato (i.e. your bitcoin).

Eventually however the pyramid cant be sustained anymore, as no new fools can be found to bail out the old ones.

This is what happened to bitcoin: It skyrocketet (with temporary corrections) and now has collapsed, burning a unprecedented number of people. Due to the extensive coverage of the rise and crash of bitcoin, and the significant number of people who now sit on losses, it is very unlikely that the pyramid can be inflated again.

[JorgeStolfi]

It occurred to me that there is a simple way to predict the price of bitcoin.  

Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where

V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);  
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).  

From that we get P = (V - U)/R.

Now you only need to predict V and U.  

[porc]

It occurred to me that there is a simple way to predict the price of bitcoin.  

Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where

V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);  
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).  

From that we get P = (V - U)/R.

Now you only need to predict V and U.  

You have invested in a pyramid and come up with some formulas??? Come on!! Open your eyes. This ship will sink. I said it when it was above 1000 dollars, and I will say it again at 200 dollars.

[manselr]

It occurred to me that there is a simple way to predict the price of bitcoin.  

Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where

V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);  
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).  

From that we get P = (V - U)/R.

Now you only need to predict V and U.  

You have invested in a pyramid and come up with some formulas??? Come on!! Open your eyes. This ship will sink. I said it when it was above 1000 dollars, and I will say it again at 200 dollars.

Of course you come here celebrating your "prediction". The question is, will you be here admitting defeat once BTC goes back up, or will you quietly disappear until another bubble burst cycle happens claiming to be a magician that predicts the future? duh.

[operrajunk74]

I don't find any specific reason that Bitcoin will collapse in price in coming period of time. I believe it will be reaching to a new level in next 5 to 10 years. Mostly people are not aware about it yet but as their awareness level will go high the same will go with Bitcoin too

[Anirban Sarkar]

No i don't think bitcoin will collapse , it have a bright future and within few years it will be used by many people !!!

[Clint]

Bitcoin is being accepted more and more across the globe, which means they have more people using it. I personally don't think it will drop like you said, but reading your post gave me 2nd thoughts. Thanks

[dblink]

and the FUD begins .....

Thanks for your detailed respone. State why the above reasoning is false.

Each individual have their own calculations, if you see years back when Bitcoins started, it has less value, down the line in a few years, it climbed to high steep which was never imagined by any financial geeks. Bitcoin has the real future, since it is secured, reliable and Transparency. Also it will have tremendous real value when we control the measures in the bitcoin mining flows.

[pereira4]

So the value of bitcoin is that I can dump it on the next guy?

What good is a commodity you cannot convert into another form?  You could argue that anything which cannot be used to directly purchase something will get "dumped on the next guy" when it is converted into an alternate form to make a purchase.

These guys just cannot be saved. I have a similar friend and I couldn't explain him why Bitcoin has value. He would always say "It's only useful to get dollars" and "it has no intrinsic value". He can't see beyond that. I eventually gave up and said fuck it, but I hope he doesn't cry me about how he didn't buy now in 5 years.

[BitBatFan]

I don't see bitcoin can colapse below 150$, but I can see steady price for a year and then another balloon to 2k$.
If it's not gonna happen in the next year, then in 2 years. It's just the matter of time.

[GreenStox]

Man this thread is so old, and the OP is out of line, in 2013 of course people have worried about Bitcoin's collapse.

But we are in 2015, over 80.000 merchants use it and politicians also accept it for campaign bribery donations, so it will survive and thrive in the coming years 

[Erdogan]

and the FUD begins .....

Thanks for your detailed respone.

State why the above reasoning is false.

1. Bitcoin is used in the transaction to pay for the goods, that is the definition of the medium of exchange, so you are wrong.

1a. They have not made it impossible. Because it exists.

1b. Prohibition would be a drag, but they have not done it. They do not have a monopoly on money, only soft and hard currency controls sometimes. The fact that they do not hold a monopoly, is the reason why other fiats take over when they mismanage.

2 Store of value, the one and only function of money, exists because people want to hold them. Transactionability is necessary for the store of value function. It is futile to store something of no value for direct use if you can't trade them when you want.

2xx Altcoins: Go ahead, we want free market, private money, all the altcoins you care to invent. The market will decide what is the best money. For me, bitcoin is best.

2yy Not useful; I agree, they must be traded for something useful. Not wanted? They are wanted conditionally, for example someone wants bitcoin this moment on finex if they can get some for 247.47 USD, four of them, to be exact.

Conclusion, government attack on miners; well they are not omnipotent, there must be somewhere on the globe where you can operate a mining rig occulted.

Conclusion xx: That referenced post is a wall of text.

Man, you sweep up truckloads of bad arguments from the floor. And you need to structure  your posts better if you insist on numbering, I get cognitive dissonance from trying to navigate your post.

[Erdogan]

It has  collapsed many times, and it recovery quickly.

Yes: In the beginning of a pyramid there are still plenty of new fools you can convince to buy from you your hot potato (i.e. your bitcoin).

Eventually however the pyramid cant be sustained anymore, as no new fools can be found to bail out the old ones.

This is what happened to bitcoin: It skyrocketet (with temporary corrections) and now has collapsed, burning a unprecedented number of people. Due to the extensive coverage of the rise and crash of bitcoin, and the significant number of people who now sit on losses, it is very unlikely that the pyramid can be inflated again.

I agree on the pyramid view, it is a pyramid, all money is. But one pyramid will stand, the best pyramid, and it will stand until something better comes along, maybe forever.

[Erdogan]

Why the fuck do I respond to these old posts? Focus, erdogan.

[dblink]

Thanks for your detailed respone.
State why the above reasoning is false.

FUD is generally a strategic attempt to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information. An individual firm, for example, might use FUD to invite unfavorable opinions and speculation about a competitor's product; to increase the general estimation of switching costs among current customers; or to maintain leverage over a current business partner who could potentially become a rival.

[BillyBones]

It's good that after 4 years someone finally stepped in and explained to us why bitcoin will fail. Thank you OP! 

Do you believe that bitcoin ever fail ? I assume that you are not convinced with what he has said, if your assumption is correct, then honestly me to think the same that, there is no way that bitcoin will give out its value so easily, we must note that being in crisis situation, Greece is going to installed the First Bitcoin ATM Machine in their production environment. They finally came to know the real value of Bitcoin Gold.

[Anony]

and the FUD begins .....

Bitcoin is the medium of exchange
The exchange ultimately resumed services after admitting that about $5 million worth of bitcoins had been stolen
If bitcoins are stolen continuously it will affect global economics in the future. 

[mayflor2]

I think the future of any company, product or a person can only be predicted. Prediction with a right or wrong, a yes or a no solution provided only 50% chances of something happening. Bitcoin is a god damn revolution, it is here to change things and we are its supporters. Lets jump the hurdles together.

[MarkMJ]

Or not!!!
Really does not matter I know one thing
There will be people who will lose but will be people who will benefit
So everything will be fine.