In this thread we have fun with conspiracy theories!
According to Wikipedia
A conspiracy theory is an explanatory proposition that accuses two or more people, a group, or an organization of having caused or covered up, through deliberate collusion, an event or phenomenon of great social, political, or economic impact.Conspiracies are "normal mammalian behavior" in the words of Robert Anton Wilson, who studied and wrote about them extensively during his life.
During the last decade, the term "conspiracy theorist" has taken on a derogatory meaning in mainstream culture, implying that the "conspiracy theorist" is evil or stupid for believing in conspiracies. Everyone knows, that powerful people never meet behind closed doors to discuss ways of cooperation, which would further advance their agenda. I call the belief, that
there are no conspiracies the
Great Conspiracy.Conspiracies exist, of course. But one should put care into not believing in any one of them a full 100%, nor dismissing any other with 100% certitude, for that leads to dogma and a rigid mind which has stopped receiving new signals from the environment and where is the fun in that?
Conspiracy theories can be fun and enlightening. (If not taken too seriously)
I propose we have some fun and create a narrative of historical and current events based on conspiracy theories. Bonus points if they are backed by verifiable facts and make logical sense!
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Let me start with this one:
The covert US/China Bitcoin racePremise: The governments of the US, China and possibly others are currently actively engaged in a race to secure the biggest possible amount of Bitcoins for themselves. This is the result of the realization on their part, that cryptographic digital decentralized ledgers are what will replace the current monetary system, which is quite clearly nearing its expiration date. At this moment in time, the governments are trying to figure out a way how to tilt this recent development in their favor, by devising schemes to tax and regulate existing ledgers, or create their own, government-backed ledgers. But because the public sentiment of distrust against established institutions is large and growing, the scenario that the governments will be forced to participate in Bitcoin is plausible and worth hedging against. Thus the race to secure the biggest amount of the current dominant crypto-ledger pie for themselves.
Timeline:October 2013 - FBI shuts down Silk road and captures its operator, known as Dread Pirate Roberts. This has been planned for months and delayed until Roberts getting fake IDs with obvious intent to travel outside of the country forces their hand. The main objective has never been the shutdown of Silk Road (even though that is a nice side benefit by itself). The objective was to acquire a large stash of Bitcoin without driving up the price and alerting everyone to what was happening. In one swoop, they capture one of the biggest holders of Bitcoin and thanks to their months long surveillance, they manage to get their hands on about 150 000BTC. This in turn forces the hand of the Chinese government, which starts to accumulate coins instantly after the news of the DPR seizure is out, running up the price. The race is officially on.
November 2013 The US, after securing its initial position of Bitcoin, holds a series of senate hearings, with very positive rhetoric, with even Ben Bernanke chiming in to give praise to the idea of digital currencies. This is an attempt, to force the anticipated exponential growth curve of Bitcoin, encouraging hoarding and thus pricing out the Chinese out of the market. Chinese interests respond by trying to crash the Bitoin market while the hearings are underway, but they don't succeed in starting a panic.
December 2013 Even though the Chinese have been buying in huge amounts, they decide they can't risk further immediate price rises. They try to crash the market again, this time successfully, by a combination of an ambiguous official statement and a concurrent huge sell-off.
These posts elaborate such a scenario further:
perhaps China(or some other mighty organizations) is busy liquidating gold and accumulating bitcoins, so they are putting a temporary check on the price parity.
This actually makes sense if you analyze the sequence of events during these two months: bitcoins used to be available in large quantities only on foreign exchanges, thus CCP can't get hold of them without moving large amount of fiats into foreign exchanges, which will likely attract attentions. So they may decide to first prop up the bitcoin price in China, gradually siphoning bitcoins into Chinese exchanges, then issue the PBOC statement to creak a market panic, frighten the Chinese speculators to undersell the bitcoins they just bought, and thereby accumulating many bitcoins using yuans being moved entirely within Chinese financial system, which they can freely manipulate to hide their true identities.
It's well known that China has been encouraging its citizens to stockpile gold, probably so they could confiscate it if needed and as a way of making their citizens richer (a sort of leveraged play on gold).
I was thinking they might be doing the same thing with Bitcoin now. But the problem with the theory was always that they can't really confiscate bitcoins. However, they can sort of do it by manipulating the market and media, laws, etc. It's exactly what you'd expect a powerful and strategically cunning government to do.
It's actually a pretty great strategy. Get your citizens to buy, and if the price goes down it's the same as if they gambled it away in Macau. The government loses nothing much. If the price goes up you get more tax money and economic growth, and then with your strong control of media and everything you can "shake the tree" and still be able to buy in yourself at decent prices once Bitcoin is more solidly a thing.
Lower risk and higher reward than just buying in with your own money right away.
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OK guys, your turn. I have seen some fun theories floating around the speculation forum, bring them on!
