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Author Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model  (Read 123163 times)
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mmortal03
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July 31, 2014, 08:01:45 PM
 #401

is there a reason the spreadsheet has stopped being updated?

Sorry, I was on vacation. The regular updates have resumed. I resolve to perform the updates in the future even on vacation.

The widely expected July rally did not occur. Bitcoin transaction volume has been relatively flat this year, and I believe that a resumption of bitcoin transaction growth will fuel the next rally.

you know what, enjoy your vacation fully, they are more valuable than  prediction models.

Mean while i wanna show you some scholarly prediction models by an economics school, i found this yesterday..

thesis.eur.nl/pub/16296/358728jk-Joop-Korteweg.docx



Did anyone else download this? I accidentally downloaded it and opened it before I realized what I did and now I'm afraid to use that computer.

The rest of this guy's posts seem legit: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=199595;sa=showPosts

Did he get hacked on just this message? Do you know for a fact that it contains a virus or something?
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mmortal03
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July 31, 2014, 08:05:03 PM
 #402

is there a reason the spreadsheet has stopped being updated?

Sorry, I was on vacation. The regular updates have resumed. I resolve to perform the updates in the future even on vacation.

The widely expected July rally did not occur. Bitcoin transaction volume has been relatively flat this year, and I believe that a resumption of bitcoin transaction growth will fuel the next rally.

you know what, enjoy your vacation fully, they are more valuable than  prediction models.

Mean while i wanna show you some scholarly prediction models by an economics school, i found this yesterday..

thesis.eur.nl/pub/16296/358728jk-Joop-Korteweg.docx



Did anyone else download this? I accidentally downloaded it and opened it before I realized what I did and now I'm afraid to use that computer.

The rest of this guy's posts seem legit: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=199595;sa=showPosts

Did he get hacked on just this message? Do you know for a fact that it contains a virus or something?

And here is Google's HTML conversion of it, if you're unsure about wanting to click on it (the textual content seems ok): http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:5FZTXuEQ610J:thesis.eur.nl/pub/16296/358728jk-Joop-Korteweg.docx+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
cuddaloreappu
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August 01, 2014, 01:01:05 AM
 #403

is there a reason the spreadsheet has stopped being updated?

Sorry, I was on vacation. The regular updates have resumed. I resolve to perform the updates in the future even on vacation.

The widely expected July rally did not occur. Bitcoin transaction volume has been relatively flat this year, and I believe that a resumption of bitcoin transaction growth will fuel the next rally.

you know what, enjoy your vacation fully, they are more valuable than  prediction models.

Mean while i wanna show you some scholarly prediction models by an economics school, i found this yesterday..

thesis.eur.nl/pub/16296/358728jk-Joop-Korteweg.docx



Did anyone else download this? I accidentally downloaded it and opened it before I realized what I did and now I'm afraid to use that computer.

wHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!!!!!!.. ITS JUST A DOCUMENT
dennydotco
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August 02, 2014, 04:40:11 PM
 #404

is there a reason the spreadsheet has stopped being updated?

Sorry, I was on vacation. The regular updates have resumed. I resolve to perform the updates in the future even on vacation.

The widely expected July rally did not occur. Bitcoin transaction volume has been relatively flat this year, and I believe that a resumption of bitcoin transaction growth will fuel the next rally.

you know what, enjoy your vacation fully, they are more valuable than  prediction models.

Mean while i wanna show you some scholarly prediction models by an economics school, i found this yesterday..

thesis.eur.nl/pub/16296/358728jk-Joop-Korteweg.docx



Did anyone else download this? I accidentally downloaded it and opened it before I realized what I did and now I'm afraid to use that computer.

wHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!!!!!!.. ITS JUST A DOCUMENT

Bitcoin has made me a nervous moron.
cuddaloreappu
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August 03, 2014, 08:24:11 AM
 #405

is there a reason the spreadsheet has stopped being updated?

Sorry, I was on vacation. The regular updates have resumed. I resolve to perform the updates in the future even on vacation.

The widely expected July rally did not occur. Bitcoin transaction volume has been relatively flat this year, and I believe that a resumption of bitcoin transaction growth will fuel the next rally.

you know what, enjoy your vacation fully, they are more valuable than  prediction models.

Mean while i wanna show you some scholarly prediction models by an economics school, i found this yesterday..

thesis.eur.nl/pub/16296/358728jk-Joop-Korteweg.docx



Did anyone else download this? I accidentally downloaded it and opened it before I realized what I did and now I'm afraid to use that computer.

wHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT!!!!!!!.. ITS JUST A DOCUMENT

Bitcoin has made me a nervous moron.

me too becoming lot anxious because of bitcoin
LiteCoinGuy
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August 05, 2014, 12:00:07 PM
 #406

thx for that work.

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August 05, 2014, 12:09:26 PM
 #407

Anyone following Stephen Reed's Model (all of us right?) should check out this related video as to why the S-curve is related to Bitcoin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHUPPYzzZrI&index=11&list=PLzctEq7iZD-7-DgJM604zsndMapn9ff6q

Brought to my attention by Litecoinguy here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=723876.new#new

Monero - Truly Anonymous Digital Cash. Bitcoin Reading List 2017
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August 06, 2014, 08:02:04 PM
 #408

Here's a chart of the speculative Ethereum presale activity to date:

https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=36PrZ1KHYMpqSyAQXSG8VwbUiq2EogxLo2
wachtwoord
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August 06, 2014, 10:22:12 PM
 #409

is there a reason the spreadsheet has stopped being updated?

Sorry, I was on vacation. The regular updates have resumed. I resolve to perform the updates in the future even on vacation.

The widely expected July rally did not occur. Bitcoin transaction volume has been relatively flat this year, and I believe that a resumption of bitcoin transaction growth will fuel the next rally.

you know what, enjoy your vacation fully, they are more valuable than  prediction models.

Mean while i wanna show you some scholarly prediction models by an economics school, i found this yesterday..

thesis.eur.nl/pub/16296/358728jk-Joop-Korteweg.docx



Did anyone else download this? I accidentally downloaded it and opened it before I realized what I did and now I'm afraid to use that computer.

It's a word document. It's hosted on the official website of a (good) university. What are you talking about?
SlipperySlope (OP)
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August 07, 2014, 12:26:58 AM
 #410


It's a word document. It's hosted on the official website of a (good) university. What are you talking about?

The document loaded in Linux/Libre Office for me but used a lot of CPU so I was suspicious. Anyway, the content was not directly related to a logistic model of pricing.
cuddaloreappu
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August 07, 2014, 01:23:09 AM
 #411


It's a word document. It's hosted on the official website of a (good) university. What are you talking about?

The document loaded in Linux/Libre Office for me but used a lot of CPU so I was suspicious. Anyway, the content was not directly related to a logistic model of pricing.

So those lot of pages does not help us...screw that university
kireinaha
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August 07, 2014, 04:59:10 AM
 #412

is there a reason the spreadsheet has stopped being updated?

Sorry, I was on vacation. The regular updates have resumed. I resolve to perform the updates in the future even on vacation.

The widely expected July rally did not occur. Bitcoin transaction volume has been relatively flat this year, and I believe that a resumption of bitcoin transaction growth will fuel the next rally.

you know what, enjoy your vacation fully, they are more valuable than  prediction models.

Mean while i wanna show you some scholarly prediction models by an economics school, i found this yesterday..

thesis.eur.nl/pub/16296/358728jk-Joop-Korteweg.docx



Did anyone else download this? I accidentally downloaded it and opened it before I realized what I did and now I'm afraid to use that computer.

It's a word document. It's hosted on the official website of a (good) university. What are you talking about?

A word document could contain malicious code within macros to exploit vulnerabilities on your system. or the extension could simply be spoofed. yes, it's a university site, but that doesn't mean it's guaranteed safe. the page could even be compromised and a malicious file injected. perhaps it's paranoid, but this is bitcoin. people should be mindful about links to third party sites and never, ever, download and run files from anyone.

Night gathers, and now my bitcoinwisdom watch begins.
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August 07, 2014, 05:27:43 AM
Last edit: August 07, 2014, 05:39:25 AM by bcmine
 #413

Bug in Theory:

"Note that this model ignores the fact that when bitcoin is fully adopted by the underlying economy, it will continue to grow in price at least in proportion to economic growth."

BTC price cannot grow in proportion to economic growth as when you hold btc and is gaining in price you did not make a contribution to the growth. monetary growth must happen there were economic growth is happening.


BTC is not built to be a currency even some people saying it can be or people use it as it would be. Man you stucked in early 2013. What we know by now, BTC blockchain can be used instead of banks making transactions. So the price of BTC inclusive all the ecosystem working with it together could be taxed by the number of transactions made, thats like 6 billion now for btc and about 1 billions for the ecosystem, growing with the number of transactions. By holding BTC you make an invesment in a share of that transactionsystem.

If you invent another use for the bitcoin or the blockchain, let us tell  Smiley

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August 07, 2014, 05:38:31 AM
 #414

bug in theory:

"Note that this model ignores the fact that when bitcoin is fully adopted by the underlying economy, it will continue to grow in price at least in proportion to economic growth."

BTC price cannot grow in proportion to economic growth as when you hold btc and is gaining in price you did not make a contribution to the growth. monetary growth must happen there were economic growth is happening.

Um, no.  Not at all.  Your mind has been broken by pseudo-science, Sir.  Read some Hayek.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 07, 2014, 05:40:41 AM
Last edit: August 07, 2014, 05:58:31 AM by bcmine
 #415

bug in theory:

"Note that this model ignores the fact that when bitcoin is fully adopted by the underlying economy, it will continue to grow in price at least in proportion to economic growth."

BTC price cannot grow in proportion to economic growth as when you hold btc and is gaining in price you did not make a contribution to the growth. monetary growth must happen there were economic growth is happening.

Um, no.  Not at all.  Your mind has been broken by pseudo-science, Sir.  Read some Hayek.

we are reading hayek in public schools, here in austria and he can not really help you to break useful paradigms. Which quote do you have in mind?

Sir, my contribution in this thread will be limited.

I just want to point on the fact, that growth of market (trading, goods etc.) always goes with inflation of the monetary basis. Thats like 1+1=2. So how can this problem being solved with btc as an fixed amount trading unit? P.e. by another trading unit or by raising the price etc.

What problems will accure, when you raise the price of the trading unit?  Examples: Goldstandard. The topic about back to goldstandard with BTC is sooo 2013.
What problems will accure by another trading unit? Examples: China and America are having different currencies, different inflations, different interest rates. When the growth in market or decline happens in China, Yen is rising, not the Dollar. So we see a growth by 15 % in the last XX Years.
etc.....

do you count 1+1=2?

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August 07, 2014, 05:58:02 AM
 #416

bug in theory:

"Note that this model ignores the fact that when bitcoin is fully adopted by the underlying economy, it will continue to grow in price at least in proportion to economic growth."

BTC price cannot grow in proportion to economic growth as when you hold btc and is gaining in price you did not make a contribution to the growth. monetary growth must happen there were economic growth is happening.

Um, no.  Not at all.  Your mind has been broken by pseudo-science, Sir.  Read some Hayek.

we are reading hayek in public schools, here in austria and he can not really help you to break useful paradigms. Which quote do you have in mind?
One does not just read Hayek, one must understand the words.  Wink as the economy grows so prices fall people save, then when the economy shrinks prices increase people spend and so a market equilibrium is formed this is only possible with a fixed money supply.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
bcmine
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August 07, 2014, 06:03:37 AM
 #417

bug in theory:

"Note that this model ignores the fact that when bitcoin is fully adopted by the underlying economy, it will continue to grow in price at least in proportion to economic growth."

BTC price cannot grow in proportion to economic growth as when you hold btc and is gaining in price you did not make a contribution to the growth. monetary growth must happen there were economic growth is happening.

Um, no.  Not at all.  Your mind has been broken by pseudo-science, Sir.  Read some Hayek.

we are reading hayek in public schools, here in austria and he can not really help you to break useful paradigms. Which quote do you have in mind?
One does not just read Hayek, one must understand the words.  Wink as the economy grows so prices fall people save, then the when the economy shrinks prices increase people spend and so a market equilibrium is formed this is only possible with a fixed money supply.

stupid people. when prices fall i buy and do not save. where are you people living? where are you from?

no, no. we are intelligent, we buy, when prices are cheap, so we save money, but then we have money and goods.  therefor we have here even more intelligent people who are destroying that. with out the more intelligent people it would be chaos here.

So this discussion is never ending. Just trust me. its a Bug.

Fixed money supply? interesting. like the tulip bubble. great experiment. i am better off with my pseudo-science, Sir.

alot success for you!
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August 07, 2014, 06:31:17 AM
 #418

I won't judge stupid behavior (here I am feeding the troll) but if products and services get cheaper and cheaper (price deflation)  only stupid people would risk buying 1 car today when they can buy 2 better cars for the same price next year.

Re read that Hayek book you were given at school.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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August 07, 2014, 08:40:51 AM
 #419

Bitcoin is not a monetary item as clearly indicated by the Bitcoin Foundation in a Texas court right now. The Bitcoin Foundation is currently demonstrating that bitcoin is not a monetary item in that court case in Texas. Bitcoin is a variable real value non-monetary item. There is nothing monetary about bitcoin. Bitcoin is an experimental digital medium of exchange. Cigarettes normally are a medium of exchange in prisons (so I read). That does not make cigarettes money.

Bitcoin is a digital medium of exchange and a relatively unstable store of value. Bitcoin is not money or a monetary item. To be a monetary item, accountants must be able to assume that bitcoin is perfectly stable in real value over time like they do with all fiat currencies when they account a great part (not all) of the world´s economic activity.

Bitcoin is a digital variable real value non-monetary item similar to digital rare stamps. Bitcoin is not a currency. Bitcoin is a cryptocommodity and payment platform. The blockchain technology is very innovative. It has a lot of respect from many people. However, people do know that bitcoin is not money.


For bitcoin to be money it has to be relatively stable in real value, like the major fiat currencies, e.g., the USD, Euro, Pound, Yuan, Yen, etc. The world economy is based on (uses) the Historical Cost Accounting model. The HCA model is based on the stable measuring unit assumption: accountants and economists assume money is perfectly stable in real value over time for the measurement of a great part (not all) of the world´s economic activity.

Bitcoin is not a currency or money or monetary item. Bitcoin will never be assumed to be perfectly stable in real value. That is the last thing the bitcoin economy wants. Thus bitcoin will never be money or a currency.

There is an interesting experiment to simulate with three cryptocurrencies the mexican peso. So there are things going on with the blockchain.

But saying bitcoin is a currency or money its the same as saying a stone is a scissor. Maybe there is ore in the stone and maybe you can do after alot of processes to make a scissor out of it.

anyway happy studies in economics and hayek (more elemantary is marx and the game theory. hayek is contrary to keynes, but keynes itself 'oh my god' oldschool.)

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August 07, 2014, 05:03:31 PM
 #420

I won't judge stupid behavior (here I am feeding the troll) but if products and services get cheaper and cheaper (price deflation)  only stupid people would risk buying 1 car today when they can buy 2 better cars for the same price next year.

Re read that Hayek book you were given at school.

Unless they need a car. If I need a car I will buy when I need it no matter what that money can do in the future, because I need it now. If I merely would like a better car, but could wait for that better car another year or two while their price drops/my purchasing power rises I will wait. This seems like it would be good for the world to deter overconsumption, build more rugged products in the first place, and maintain what we already have.
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