Noob Speculation Madness Journal

[Roccker]

Hi there!

I am a noob with no trading experience at all and i put nearly all my life savings into bitcoins and i will write about it – this will be fun!:)

The story so far:


- Discovered Bitcoin at 140. Finally managed registering when i was it was at 200. Then i thought ‘it's already going down again and it's over’, 'i'll wait for the next bubble'.
-> did not understand market at all. Just looked at the last bubble and thought this will be the same and will crash at 266 or 300 and it’s over in 7 days

- began buying in very slowly when I got from reading forums this could go much higher.
Bought 0,5 bc for 255, 1bc at 300
(argh, what nice prices!!)

- there was an up and down movement (lasted like 5minutes?)–
sold 0,3 bc at 680 and then bought 3bc at 500,  6bc at 550 and even one at 470 before it went up to 800 again, I congratulate myself for the move, great stuff.

[1714961855]

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[1714961855]

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[1714961855]

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[JimboToronto]

If you're going to invest, I suggest you learn about it. Start with Satoshi's white paper.

If that's too technical for you, try the BTC 101 Blackboard Series. Dude explains things well.

[KFR]

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgo7FCCPuylVk4luP3JAgVw/videos

Don't risk more than you can afford to lose.  Always keep as much as possible back for the longterm.  

Good luck!

[JimboToronto]

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgo7FCCPuylVk4luP3JAgVw/videos

Don't risk more than you can afford to lose.  Always keep as much as possible back for the longterm.  

Good luck!

Thanks for posting the link. I was too lazy and in the middle of dinner. 

[Roccker]

Thanks!!


history contd:
- now comes a retrospectively bad move: I buy in 7bc at 1050, 1bc at 1100
What was I thinking: That this thing stayed on over 1000 for 8! days. I just wanted to put all my money in and long-hold.
I was thinking it will go to 1500, then crash only to 800 or something. (I was thinking for some reason the bubble will never crash, ‘new paradigm’:). Stupid stupid. I remember thinking ‘no, I will not buy more now after the 500 buys and wait for the crash’ but somehow forgot)

- price began to fall after 1100. Went against 800 but did not break first.
I was reading forums ‘it’s gonna break in 2h’. My mentality was to just ‘hold this bubble out and wait for 6 months to rise again.

- As it breaks 800 I calculated at which price a total sell of all my BC I would break even with all the money I put into it. I decided better sell all now, break even and be secure + be able to buy cheaper in instead of being trapped for like 6 months.

I sell all at 770. (think break even would have been 760)

- Right when I sell… it all starts rising again!!
Is this a joke.
I decide: this was just a small dip like many times before, I was tricked , the china message is just a tiny message not reason for a big movement down. I
-> I buy all-in again at 760 10 minutes later!;)

I go to bed. 3hours later I wake up. Omg. Perhaps it’s going down really hard. Not recovery but dead cat bounce! Life is exciting )
I turn computer on and make sell order for everything at 740. (I calculated in total since I joined bitcoin that I still break even with tiny plus; course was around 700 at time of my order) – I go back to bed and don’t know how this will work out
Next morning i find out: i sold.

I set buy orders in the range 560 - 300.

- buy order 3bc for 560 gets taken, but nothing else.
It rises rises and breaks 800, I panic-buy-in for 740-760 (while at work grabbing some computer!:))
I easily could have bought in at 680 order at this day with the fluctuation.

- I conclude : after all this madness  I have 22bc. The same as I had in the beginning . Small plus.  
But some taxes to pay, gotta calculate how much.
But I think I learned some stuff. Want to write down my strategy for the next bubble now to have a reminder.

Now it was tension at course 600-700, will it go up or down. Heard normally it goes up on Mondays/Tuesdays- it going up well over 800 (on europe 4:00 early morning on monday)with low fluctuation I hope and believe that this was the crash.

[JimboToronto]

22btc?

Put 20 in an offline paper wallet and day-trade the other 2.

Don't gamble your coins in a zero-sum market until you've gained considerable experience.

Buying and holding is the surest way to profit.

[nanobtc]

Welcome to BTC, don't wager more than you lose, etc, etc. It seems tempting to play with it all, but if it is your life's savings you will probably wind up with grief if you are not  careful.

How serious of a PC guy are you? Most get $$ in their eyes, or get involved with the 'changing the world' aspect.

Nothing wrong with either of those scenarios, but on the bottom line, BTC is data. If you have it on your PC, can you replicate the important parts tomorrow if it won't boot? Can you make sure you have no virii? If you wallet suddenly says zero, can you restore that from a backup on a fresh operating system install?

Practice using cold storage (that's not a backup, but learn how to backup your wallet.dat if you have a PC client). Sent a few bitcents back and forth from the paper wallet/cold storage until you are comfortable with that.

You shouldn't buy or sell everything for a very long time. The first few positive trades it can seem like "WOW, THIS IS EASY! I COULD QUIT MY JOB!". Stagger limit orders up and down from the current price, keeping in mind exchange fees.

If you are in the USA, I don't believe you have to worry about taxes until you sell into fiat (cash out for $$$). If your money is on an exchange, that is not yet capital gains.

Have fun, BTC can be very fun. Be cautious, BTC can be very painful.

Edit: what JimboToronto said. Keep the bulk safe, leave a small bit to learn with.

[Light]

Buying and holding is the surest way to profit.

Knowing at what price to buy is rather important as is when to sell. You'll never know exactly the high or the low so it's up to your judgement and experience to work out when to buy/sell. However, if I were you I would not daytrade more than you can afford to lose, as it can be risky and volatile.

[Roccker]

11.12 fucking up
It’s going down again. Down to 850, fast. I sell at 800 cause the trendbar (gmobo) signals sell. I am greedy and I want to feel good to make a bit more coins.
As soon as I sell, prize rises. I manipulate the prize with 20bc?
In Hindsight stupid call of course. Argh. Trendbar said signal to sell at 940. But I was waking up at 850.
It was bullshit to still do the sell. Aaargh dumb dumb.
Lection: look at the volume. Low volume = big market movements but nothing behind it. And only buy at trendlines, not after it or something.

Bought back in at 875. Lost 10% of my coins. Sell low, buy high and other way round is stupid, but I made a mistake, It will go up again and I was ok with the loosing.

Weird: as soon as I buy, up slows down and 10min later actually goes to 860 again.

Wow. This emotion of losing money sucks bigtime. Well, I lost bitcoins. Money value if I sold now would be just a bit positive.
Should have just took 5bc and try this out. I am bad bad bad.

I am ashamed of myself, ashamed to post this. JimboToronto told me exactly what to do.
Still a new experience, at all the madness this is first time I clearly lost. Sucks. (Only brightside: it could have been worse)

[Miz4r]

11.12 fucking up
It’s going down again. Down to 850, fast. I sell at 800 cause the trendbar (gmobo) signals sell. I am greedy and I want to feel good to make a bit more coins.
As soon as I sell, prize rises. I manipulate the prize with 20bc?
In Hindsight stupid call of course. Argh. Trendbar said signal to sell at 940. But I was waking up at 850.
It was bullshit to still do the sell. Aaargh dumb dumb.
Lection: look at the volume. Low volume = big market movements but nothing behind it. And only buy at trendlines, not after it or something.

Bought back in at 875. Lost 10% of my coins. Sell low, buy high and other way round is stupid, but I made a mistake, It will go up again and I was ok with the loosing.

Weird: as soon as I buy, up slows down and 10min later actually goes to 860 again.

Wow. This emotion of losing money sucks bigtime. Well, I lost bitcoins. Money value if I sold now would be just a bit positive.
Should have just took 5bc and try this out. I am bad bad bad.

I am ashamed of myself, ashamed to post this. JimboToronto told me exactly what to do.
Still a new experience, at all the madness this is first time I clearly lost. Sucks. (Only brightside: it could have been worse)

I respect you for admitting mistakes like this, most are too ashamed to post about this. One lesson I learned from trading bitcoin is that you should never sell when the price is going down hard unless it just started falling from a recent top and you're quick enough. Let the price drop all the way and wait for the bounce, then sell only once the price has retraced at least 50% of the initial downward move (be patient!). The harder the fall the harder the bounce, learn to spot this and you can make a quick buck but it takes some skill in practice. Buy and hold is almost always the best strategy for untrained speculators, and less stressful.

[xephyr]

You should only paper trade until you prove to yourself you can make a profit in a volatile market.

[jeppe]

Good luck, i started the same way a long time ago Dont risk everything, only risk what you can loose!!! Remember that

[wobber]

Day trading is gonna help you to loose your coins and it's gonna help me buy more, cheaper. Win-win scenario,

[piramida]

never. trade. on. emotion.

otherwise you will lose all, soon. If you see a rapid move unfolding but you were too late to set sell orders, DON'T DO ANYTHING manual! Evaluate the TA with a clear head, then set buy orders at the levels you think the correction would go to, and set the sell orders below the level where the crash started from. congratulate yourself and go relax.

never sell all. forget about greed. never treat money on exchange as money - they are numbers in the multiplication game you are playing against other people. helps keep your head clean.