Price will not increase until 12 months before the halving.

[JayCoDon]

so the price will start to rise at the end of summer basically? around august? as far as i remember was never raised during the summer

The last few months have been a hard lesson in taking any 'historical' BTC data remotely seriously. It'll be made up as it's going along for a long time to come.

I've never really understood the 'sell in may and go away' thing. That makes humans sound like herd animals who migrate to the Antarctic to rut and then return to the internet in autumn.

Still, it's a predecent but a deeply weird one.

I mean ... We are animals and we do behave in predictable fashion. Wealthy investors like to spend their time on their yachts in the summer. Their kids are home. It's about spending those millions. Then when Autumn returns, it's about replenishing the bank account.

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[thejaytiesto]

Just my theory.  It happened this way at the last halving.  It will happen again.  It will become more real to people at less then a year.  Miners will start to price it in to there sells.  People will start to hoard again anticipating a price increase.  There will be more adoption in general.  The prophecy will self fufill.

The halvings of other coins haven't demonstrated a relevant impact on the actual coin that halved. Im just hopping with Bitcoin it is different. Technically it doesn't mean much as it's a self regulating system, but there is a psychological pressure with it that might sky rocket the price. I have definitely the price of the halving marked on my calendar.

[ajw7989]

The halving will not be the only reason the price will go up. If we get some pretty good news we will see an increase in price. The problem recently is everytime it has been going up something bad happens to bring it down whether its GAW selling their btc off or the dark market owners, etc.

[Moonpig]

The halving will not be the only reason the price will go up. If we get some pretty good news we will see an increase in price. The problem recently is everytime it has been going up something bad happens to bring it down whether its GAW selling their btc off or the dark market owners, etc.

We always get good news but nothing happens to the price. Sometimes it even goes down bizarrely.

[ThatDGuy]

So the current predictions point at July/August 2016 for the block-reward halving? I think it will have quite an impact on the price. And I even believe we may not see that impact till Winter 2016/2017. Sure, it will be priced in to some degree, but the waning supply will only manifest itself truly after it really has happened!

I'm thinking along these lines as well.  I don't understand how people could think that the next halving (or all of the future halving events) is already priced in.  Starting that day any miner will be bringing in ~1/2 as much they did the day before.  That's pretty significant.

[ensurance982]

The halving will not be the only reason the price will go up. If we get some pretty good news we will see an increase in price. The problem recently is everytime it has been going up something bad happens to bring it down whether its GAW selling their btc off or the dark market owners, etc.

Good news aren't doing anything to the price anymore, all the pumps that follow the release of good news are just artificial and caused by traders who try to make a small profit. They will never lead to a sustained growth faster price will always go back down.

[Amph]

The halving will not be the only reason the price will go up. If we get some pretty good news we will see an increase in price. The problem recently is everytime it has been going up something bad happens to bring it down whether its GAW selling their btc off or the dark market owners, etc.

Good news aren't doing anything to the price anymore, all the pumps that follow the release of good news are just artificial and caused by traders who try to make a small profit. They will never lead to a sustained growth faster price will always go back down.

but not all the good news, were bad news in disguise, some of those did actually brought some fresh air to bitcoin, by raising the number of transaction per day(which is a value that sometimes is even more important than the price), especially those news about new merchants adopting bitcoin as a payments

what it should really happen is a chain between those merchants, that will prevent the dumping on exchange, basically these merchants should buy products from another merchants that accepted bitcoin as well

[thejaytiesto]

The halving will not be the only reason the price will go up. If we get some pretty good news we will see an increase in price. The problem recently is everytime it has been going up something bad happens to bring it down whether its GAW selling their btc off or the dark market owners, etc.

Good news aren't doing anything to the price anymore, all the pumps that follow the release of good news are just artificial and caused by traders who try to make a small profit. They will never lead to a sustained growth faster price will always go back down.

It will take time for all those good news to stack up and just make it stupid as hell to dump the coins. As more VC money keeps getting in and as more banks around the world keep bailing out we'll see rallies. It's just math.

[minerpumpkin]

New don't do the trick anymore. Either the adoption really goes up, or BTC becomes a respected investment at Wall Street, otherwise I don't see any reason for the price to go up until the halving actually comes closer. Anyways, it will be priced in continuously.