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Author Topic: Mining Probability Calculation and market predictions.  (Read 16190 times)
ribuck
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February 24, 2011, 11:45:15 AM
 #21

If you know the proverb "A watched pot never boils", it also applies to Bitcoin generation.

Don't go checking for generated blocks. Then, occasionally, when you least expect it you will be delightfully surprised to see a new block maturing.
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February 24, 2011, 11:46:08 AM
 #22

It's like they say in poker, superstition means bad luck. It causes you to make bad decisions, which lowers your chance of winning. The time you spend doing these things wastes cycles, and that lowers your chance of solving a block.
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February 24, 2011, 01:47:47 PM
 #23

If you know the proverb "A watched pot never boils", it also applies to Bitcoin generation.

Don't go checking for generated blocks. Then, occasionally, when you least expect it you will be delightfully surprised to see a new block maturing.

The following thought has crossed my mind:  "Maybe the SHA256 algorithm isn't as truly random as is thought, and there is some sort of bias against results with so many zeroes in the beginning, and the total hash power on the network is greater than estimated, and mine is therefore a smaller proportion than I thought".

Not that I seriously suspect this to be the case...

Companies claiming they got hacked and lost your coins sounds like fraud so perfect it could be called fashionable.  I never believe them.  If I ever experience the misfortune of a real intrusion, I declare I have been honest about the way I have managed the keys in Casascius Coins.  I maintain no ability to recover or reproduce the keys, not even under limitless duress or total intrusion.  Remember that trusting strangers with your coins without any recourse is, as a matter of principle, not a best practice.  Don't keep coins online. Use paper wallets instead.
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February 24, 2011, 02:19:27 PM
 #24

The following thought has crossed my mind:  "Maybe the SHA256 algorithm isn't as truly random as is thought, and there is some sort of bias against results with so many zeroes in the beginning, and the total hash power on the network is greater than estimated, and mine is therefore a smaller proportion than I thought".

Not that I seriously suspect this to be the case...

There is no known bias in sha256.

The problem is that you have to have tens of thousands of blocks found to be within 1% of theoretical value. Even after 100 blocks, there is 17% probablility of finding 10% less blocks than the average value. With 10000 blocks found, you have 16% of getting 99% of the theoretical value. Every time you double your theoretical blocks number, you have sqrt(2) less variance.

I run a modified miner that prints all hashes with difficulty one. And after collecting more than 200k of such results, it agrees with the printed hashrate to less than 0.2%. Imagine running this experiment with the current difficulty.

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February 24, 2011, 03:46:15 PM
 #25

I've been following my mining results over the last month, and at any given point in time the actual blocks found has varied from a low of 70% to a high of 132% of expected return.  It's currently at 95%.  This is with 14 GPUs and CPUs and a lucky head start.  If you have fewer devices, you can expect the variance to be higher.

"A small body of determined spirits fired by an unquenchable faith in their mission can alter the course of history." --Gandhi
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May 14, 2011, 02:22:59 PM
 #26

Are there things I can do to increase my probability of finding a block?

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May 14, 2011, 07:12:16 PM
 #27

Unless you buy more cards, no.
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May 14, 2011, 11:36:19 PM
 #28

But what affect does the quantity and quality of your connections have on probability?

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