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Author Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events  (Read 61685 times)
dacoinminster
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October 09, 2013, 06:09:51 PM
 #421

It seems to me that the description of this bet changed after I placed my bet: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1210

It now says:
"* http://www.Bitcoinx.org is working on a decentralized exchange for "colored coins", but there is doubt as to whether such coins will maintain their nominal face values when pegged to commodities and currencies. "

I agree that that usdCoins, goldcoins, oilCoins, etc can be issued and backed by a central issuer. And if they back it I expect their price to be similar to their real/paper courterparties.
What I don't believe is you can do this without trusting an issuer, which is what mastercoin attempts to do and what I bet against.

Did I read that part too fast when I bet or has it really changed after I did it?
If it changed, I want to take back my bet, I've been talking about usdCoins with an issuer inside the chain for years, before the term "colored coins" was even coined.
 


I wrote that bet, and it hasn't changed.

Everybody knows that colored coins exist, but I personally doubt they will be able to maintain parity with their underlying asset, due to risk of default by the issuer. That is, I don't think USDCoins will be able to hold a value of $1 each. Consequently, I don't think you'll lose your bet due to colored coins.

The MasterCoin project, on the other hand . . . Smiley

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jtimon
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October 09, 2013, 07:08:40 PM
 #422

I wrote that bet, and it hasn't changed.

Ok, then it's my bad because I didn't read that part with enough attention.

Everybody knows that colored coins exist, but I personally doubt they will be able to maintain parity with their underlying asset, due to risk of default by the issuer. That is, I don't think USDCoins will be able to hold a value of $1 each. Consequently, I don't think you'll lose your bet due to colored coins.

I think I will lose my bet because of it. If there's reliable issuers that keep their promises I think they will have parity.
For national currencies like usd or eur is very easy and already happening with bitstampUSD on ripple(tm), for example.

The MasterCoin project, on the other hand . . . Smiley

Exactly, I know you think it is possible to make p2p derivatives through a deterministic fund with mastercoin/bitcoin reserves and that's what I intuitively think that can be exploited and want to bet against.
Maybe we can create another bet we are both comfortable in the opposite sides.
Would you bet on a similar prediction excluding the centralized issuer with real reserves approach as a mean to achieve the "assetCoins parity"?

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
dacoinminster
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October 09, 2013, 07:31:04 PM
 #423

I wrote that bet, and it hasn't changed.

Ok, then it's my bad because I didn't read that part with enough attention.

Everybody knows that colored coins exist, but I personally doubt they will be able to maintain parity with their underlying asset, due to risk of default by the issuer. That is, I don't think USDCoins will be able to hold a value of $1 each. Consequently, I don't think you'll lose your bet due to colored coins.

I think I will lose my bet because of it. If there's reliable issuers that keep their promises I think they will have parity.
For national currencies like usd or eur is very easy and already happening with bitstampUSD on ripple(tm), for example.

The MasterCoin project, on the other hand . . . Smiley

Exactly, I know you think it is possible to make p2p derivatives through a deterministic fund with mastercoin/bitcoin reserves and that's what I intuitively think that can be exploited and want to bet against.
Maybe we can create another bet we are both comfortable in the opposite sides.
Would you bet on a similar prediction excluding the centralized issuer with real reserves approach as a mean to achieve the "assetCoins parity"?


I would, except I spent all my bitcoins on MasterCoins! Smiley

I literally have almost zero bitcoins left! If I get more bitcoins, I might set up another bet.

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October 09, 2013, 09:50:20 PM
 #424

I would, except I spent all my bitcoins on MasterCoins! Smiley

I literally have almost zero bitcoins left! If I get more bitcoins, I might set up another bet.

Hehehe, I understand.
I have also spent most of my bitcoins on freicoins.
Suddenly my lately preferred way to buy btc was more restricted and I would like to explore other ways...
I have some because [spolier]Skyler behaved as expected[/spolier], but maybe it's not the right time to bet on this.
I still think I will lose the other one because of colored coins/freimarkets though.
Maybe the absence of oilCoins will safe me? Let's see. Didn't bet much because of the time horizon anyway.

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
dacoinminster
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October 09, 2013, 10:04:03 PM
 #425

I would, except I spent all my bitcoins on MasterCoins! Smiley

I literally have almost zero bitcoins left! If I get more bitcoins, I might set up another bet.

Hehehe, I understand.
I have also spent most of my bitcoins on freicoins.
Suddenly my lately preferred way to buy btc was more restricted and I would like to explore other ways...
I have some because [spolier]Skyler behaved as expected[/spolier], but maybe it's not the right time to bet on this.
I still think I will lose the other one because of colored coins/freimarkets though.
Maybe the absence of oilCoins will safe me? Let's see. Didn't bet much because of the time horizon anyway.


I don't think you're in any danger from freimarkets, since the bet statement says:

Quote
This statement will be regarded as true if before January 1st, 2015 it is possible to buy, sell, trade, and spend virtual currencies which track the value of gold, oil, and U.S. Dollars, with the record of these transactions stored in the primary bitcoin block chain

(emphasis mine)

Since by my understanding freimarkets won't use the primary bitcoin blockchain, I think colored coins and MasterCoin are your only worry. (By the same logic, Bitshares being successful also wouldn't cause you to lose your bet.)

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October 10, 2013, 04:00:53 AM
 #426

Freimarkets could be deployed in Bitcoin's blockchain if the required hardfork is accepted by the network.
It will likely happen on Freicoin first, but it is a protocol extension that can operate in both chains at the same time.
And as said, order-based colored coins (freimarkets are "tag-based colored coins" according to Meni Rosenfeld) is what worries me in the current bet.
In fact, I would not want to bet against a mastercoin based on a central issuer neither (I undesrtand that's possible, isn't it?). I just want to bet against your proposed p2p derivative issued by a protocol such as mastercoin.
If bitshares claims to be able to do the same p2p derivative or similar, I would prefer the new bet not to be so specific about the bitcoin chain so that the bitshare people can also disagree with me (the more coins against me, the higher the reward if I win).

2 different forms of free-money: Freicoin (free of basic interest because it's perishable), Mutual credit (no interest because it's abundant)
dacoinminster
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October 10, 2013, 03:19:34 PM
 #427

Freimarkets could be deployed in Bitcoin's blockchain if the required hardfork is accepted by the network.
It will likely happen on Freicoin first, but it is a protocol extension that can operate in both chains at the same time.
And as said, order-based colored coins (freimarkets are "tag-based colored coins" according to Meni Rosenfeld) is what worries me in the current bet.
In fact, I would not want to bet against a mastercoin based on a central issuer neither (I undesrtand that's possible, isn't it?). I just want to bet against your proposed p2p derivative issued by a protocol such as mastercoin.
If bitshares claims to be able to do the same p2p derivative or similar, I would prefer the new bet not to be so specific about the bitcoin chain so that the bitshare people can also disagree with me (the more coins against me, the higher the reward if I win).


It sounds like maybe you should write this bet Smiley

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October 19, 2013, 11:55:40 PM
 #428

Can we close and pay out http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1343 please?
Atlantis has closed down.
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October 20, 2013, 01:04:34 AM
 #429

Can we close and pay out http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1343 please?
Atlantis has closed down.

THIS STILL NEEDS TO BE CLOSED TOO
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1163


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the hacks, the hacks, secure your bits!
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November 01, 2013, 04:36:37 AM
 #430

I've often used betsofbitco.in with good experiences, until lately. I recently decided to submit a statement for people to bet on and it's sat "awaiting approval" for the past 3 days. It's actually now getting dangerously close to the deadline and I've received no response from the site owners on how long their approval process normally takes. Has anyone actually heard from the owner's / site maintainer recently?

EDIT of course right after posting  this I just noticed it was finally approval, better late than never I guess, I still would have appreciated it having longer to collect bets.
Here it is if anyone is interested http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1772
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November 01, 2013, 08:44:03 AM
 #431

Here it is if anyone is interested http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1772
I would've loved to bet on this one, but they refuse to finalize and pay out the other bets I'm currently invested with in a timely manner so I have no funds available.
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November 06, 2013, 09:08:06 PM
 #432

Please resolve:

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1528
and
http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1732

Thanks
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November 07, 2013, 04:10:12 AM
 #433

please approve http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1784
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November 15, 2013, 01:02:34 AM
 #434

Forgot username, and have been trying to e-mail admin... please respond so I can access my account

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November 17, 2013, 03:24:52 PM
 #435

Forgot username, and have been trying to e-mail admin... please respond so I can access my account

Ouch!  Sad


In light of the recent string of so called "failures" and so called "hacks", please consider the following:


[Bets Of Bitcoin?] Does anyone know anything about this site? If legit, does anyone have any idea what the average length of time is before an outcome can be decided and closed, and the bidders paid out?

Hmm...

As food for thought, here is a bet to consider:

Prediction: Bets of Bitcoin won't be back online.

Rationale: Whenever a sufficiently anonymous service is entrusted with bitcoin without sufficient collateral,
and the amount thus entrusted is large in comparison to the profitability of the service,
that service will cease to exist when the ratio of coins coming in to the coins going out turns negative.

Deadline: January 1, 2014.





Name:   coinjedi
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First, I have used BetsOfBitcoin for a couple of years. I REALLY enjoyed bets of bitcoin.  Smiley

That said, I would very strongly recommend against trusting them your money.



Here is why:


Coinjedi, the owner and developer of BetsOfBitcoin is (AFAICT) anonymous.

Depositing money to BetsOfBitcoin is exactly equivalent to "sending cash to a stranger on the internet".

This is a bad, problematic, entirely not acceptable state of affairs.




Coinjedi could run away with all the money entrusted to the site, at any time.

There wouldn't be any obvious way for users of the site to even reach him.


For example: If he "forgets" to renew the domain registration, he could just take the deposited money, and...

well... on second thought... he wouldn't even need to do anything,  other than forget to pay the bill.

That would be the end of it.



Those moneys have already been given to him, and the users of the site have no choice but to blindly trust that he will return them, according to his rules.

Now, when dealing in bitcoin... This trust model.... How do I put this...


History teaches that it often seems to work flawlessly for a time, a long time, until it one day catastrophically stops working with little or no warning.

The website in question mysteriously ceases to exist, citing "technical difficulties", followed by promises of "be back soon", followed by... radio silence forever.

And your money would be gone. And you would be sad. And there would be nothing you could do to get them back.


As for warning signs: The owner has not responded to users on BitcoinTalk for a month... The site seems to have fallen into disuse and disrepair as of late. SSL cert expiry, and so on...


So... yeah...

Does that answer your question?



PS: All of the above was written before these latest failures happened...  Undecided



Stay safe.
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November 18, 2013, 03:42:16 AM
 #436

I'm not certain why you're saying this about the site now, they've been around since the early days and while there's been some laggy replies recently I haven't seen the service fail yet nor anyone really complain about being cheated out of their btc yet. I'd actually just like the site to see enough traffic to gain more bettors.
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November 18, 2013, 04:38:07 AM
 #437

I was totally paranoid about them for the same reasons and never played long running bets but thanks to you bumping this thread I logged in and found some $600 laying around since a year. I can report that WITHDRAWAL worked like a charm Smiley

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November 19, 2013, 04:06:59 AM
 #438

.....And even stranger I'm seeing an unconfirmed withdrawel from them in my client for the last 24 hours now, anyone know what gives here? I even had a smaller amount transaction accepted and confirmed in the same time period. It's just sitting in my client not getting confirmations, anyone had this happen to them before?
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November 20, 2013, 04:55:08 AM
 #439

ok I noticed it's finally fully confirmed today, that was nerve-wracking however, it took close to 48 hours for my withdrawal to confirm.
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November 21, 2013, 10:52:44 AM
 #440

Forgot username, and have been trying to e-mail admin... please respond so I can access my account

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