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Author Topic: Bets of Bitcoin - Bitcoin betting on real world events  (Read 35124 times)
geniusboy91
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April 02, 2013, 05:18:36 PM
 #361

How long does it take events past the event date to be decided and money distributed?

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1398397891
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BIGMERVE
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April 02, 2013, 08:39:14 PM
 #362

How long does it take events past the event date to be decided and money distributed?

He does them manually so it usually takes a couple days.

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April 03, 2013, 03:18:12 AM
 #363

Won my first two bets, I love this site  Grin

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April 07, 2013, 01:20:58 AM
 #364

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1351

Quote
Litecoin Will Reach At Least $1.20 By April 15th 2013 On BTC-e.com for the days high.


Does this not indicate that the bet will be closed whenever the condition is true? Since litecoin has been over $1.20 at btc-e.com for a long time, should not the bet be settled ?

Or do I misunderstand ? Is the bet about whether or not the high of LTC reaches at least $1.20 that particular day ?



http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1129

Quote
Two million people will be without electricity due to a natural event before April, 15 2013

This statement is true if at a given time before April 15, 2013, two millions people or more in North America are simultaneously without electricity due to a natural event.
It can be caused by tsunami, earthquake, solar flare or what ever is natural.

Isn't this rather vague ? If there's a major outage for whatever reason, how can anyone know if 1.9 or 2.1 million people are without electricity. And when you say people, how do you count them ? If someone has all the family coming over from Italy for a wedding, then that house will have more people than normal, while others may be on vacation, thus having homes with zero people at the time of the possible 'event'.

Also, the defintion of what's natural is vague. If an operator of some heavy machinery gets a heart attack, and his crane cuts a major powerline, then you may say that his heart attack is a natural cause, but the line was cut by a man-made machine, so what would it be ?

I think it may be better to rephrase it and include the exact scenarios that are accepted as a possible reason, for instance: Eartquake, Flooding, Thunderstorm. There should be no 'etc' and 'so on', that leaves too much to be desired.

Perhaps a better bed would have to be something to the extent of:

Quote
There will be a major natural electric outage lasting 5 hours or more before April, 15 2013, confirmed to be a natural disaster by at least one major local newspaper.

This statement is true if at a given time before April 15, 2013 (what's that - in america, europe or what - shouldn't time stamps be given so there will be no need to discuss it ?) the largest local newspaper somewhere in North-America reports on a major electrical outage causes by a natural cause limited to: Earth quake, flooding, solar flare, thunderstorm, (put in more that would fit here)

Also, I think times should be given as: Sunday 31 March 2013 01:00 GMT  or at least as UTC or CET. Preferrably the same format should be used throughout the site.


And is there a way to work out exactly how much you're going to win  if you win ? If I bet on something with 0.2 BTC, I would be very interested in knowing my odds ? Or does one not know until betting is settled?


Spaceman_Spiff
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April 07, 2013, 02:39:52 PM
 #365

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1351

Quote
Litecoin Will Reach At Least $1.20 By April 15th 2013 On BTC-e.com for the days high.


Does this not indicate that the bet will be closed whenever the condition is true? Since litecoin has been over $1.20 at btc-e.com for a long time, should not the bet be settled ?

Or do I misunderstand ? Is the bet about whether or not the high of LTC reaches at least $1.20 that particular day ?


All bets made on the same day the event took place or the days after are ignored/removed afterwards.

alcibiades
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April 07, 2013, 07:13:41 PM
 #366

Why do I need a login to bet? Shouldn't my bitcoin address be enough for payment?

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Herodes
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April 07, 2013, 11:42:53 PM
 #367

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1351

Quote
Litecoin Will Reach At Least $1.20 By April 15th 2013 On BTC-e.com for the days high.


Does this not indicate that the bet will be closed whenever the condition is true? Since litecoin has been over $1.20 at btc-e.com for a long time, should not the bet be settled ?

Or do I misunderstand ? Is the bet about whether or not the high of LTC reaches at least $1.20 that particular day ?


All bets made on the same day the event took place or the days after are ignored/removed afterwards.

Once a condition is fulfilled, the bet should be settled as soon as possible, and at least closed as soon as possible.
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April 08, 2013, 02:33:12 AM
 #368

Love this site sooo much, I've won all my bets to date :]

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Herodes
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April 08, 2013, 03:45:42 AM
 #369

I have been looking for info on betsofbitcoins, but didnt find it.Can someone explain me how much return I would get for 10btc on the current Mtgox 110$ bet? I dont get it. 6.5 say yes, 1.7 say no - so, I will get like 0.2x?

You can check the "How are the losing bets distributed?" question on our help page for an example.

Yea, I read that, I found it very confusing. Maybe I am too dumb for that.

It is not the most user friendly. Perhaps some sliders and a neat web interface would do it ?
geniusboy91
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April 08, 2013, 07:14:30 AM
 #370

Once a condition is fulfilled, the bet should be settled as soon as possible, and at least closed as soon as possible.
I agree. If a bet is decided and still has two years left as an open bet, I want my money once the answer is known, not two years later.

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memvola
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April 19, 2013, 11:30:37 AM
 #371

I'm sure this is hashed and rehashed before, but how is this a draw: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701 (Butterfly Labs will not ship ASIC-based Bitforce SC products before April 2013)?

Here, Josh says, on 29 March, that they won't start shipping until the end of "next week": https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status-3.html#post21092

That pretty much proves that they didn't "ship", in any sort of rhetorical manner. Yes, we know that they still haven't shipped, but I think it's safe to say that they didn't "ship", too.

Anyway, sorry for whining. Maybe someone can redirect me to the proper thread. Thanks.
Jokah
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April 19, 2013, 11:23:39 PM
 #372

I'm starting to wish I hadn't bothered with this site. It's been 5 days since a deadline has past on one of the bets and still no conclusion has been drawn.
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April 20, 2013, 12:00:59 AM
 #373

I'm sure this is hashed and rehashed before, but how is this a draw: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701 (Butterfly Labs will not ship ASIC-based Bitforce SC products before April 2013)?

Here, Josh says, on 29 March, that they won't start shipping until the end of "next week": https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status-3.html#post21092

That pretty much proves that they didn't "ship", in any sort of rhetorical manner. Yes, we know that they still haven't shipped, but I think it's safe to say that they didn't "ship", too.

Anyway, sorry for whining. Maybe someone can redirect me to the proper thread. Thanks.


That whole clusterfuck was caused by Luke-Jr whoring himself out here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163261.0

And in other news it's been five days and they still haven't paid out on this bet: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1129

I don't think I'll be using them any more.

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memvola
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April 20, 2013, 05:56:50 AM
 #374

That whole clusterfuck was caused by Luke-Jr whoring himself out here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163261.0

Thanks for the link. I know about Luke-Jr's testimony, but it's hardly the cause isn't it? He isn't the judge.

And in other news it's been five days and they still haven't paid out on this bet: http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1129

I really don't mind the delays. As long as the bet is decided in the best manner possible, even a month's delay would be fine in my book.

They were doing a good job since the beginning. I too have lost interest after the lazy decision regarding BFL however.
swordfish6975
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April 20, 2013, 07:18:00 AM
 #375

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1444

I'm guessing nothing was ever shipped to Luke-Jr so "Agrees" could still win?

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April 20, 2013, 03:21:56 PM
 #376

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1444

I'm guessing nothing was ever shipped to Luke-Jr so "Agrees" could still win?

How could they have shipped before April but not before May?
swordfish6975
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April 21, 2013, 01:43:14 PM
 #377

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1444

I'm guessing nothing was ever shipped to Luke-Jr so "Agrees" could still win?

How could they have shipped before April but not before May?


who said they shipped before April? the first thing ive seen in a box is http://codinginmysleep.com/bfl-jalapeno-unboxing-and-demo/ and he says...

Quote
Full disclosure: This was indeed a free review unit.

it is still undecided imo, he didn't pay for it so he is not a "customer".

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April 26, 2013, 06:26:04 AM
 #378

coinjedi, why did you change the bet deadline of my bet (Are BFL ASICs real and doing 350+ Mhash/Joule)? I had set it to June 30, but it now reads April 21.

It seems that you decided to close it prematurely because BFL started shipping. Why? BFL will release multiple products between now and June 30, leaving the bet undecided about whether one of these products will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule or not.


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April 26, 2013, 11:11:56 AM
 #379

coinjedi, why did you change the bet deadline of my bet (Are BFL ASICs real and doing 350+ Mhash/Joule)? I had set it to June 30, but it now reads April 21.

It seems that you decided to close it prematurely because BFL started shipping. Why? BFL will release multiple products between now and June 30, leaving the bet undecided about whether one of these products will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule or not.



Editor's note: BFL claimed shipping on 4/22.

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swordfish6975
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April 26, 2013, 11:21:59 AM
 #380


Editor's note: BFL claimed shipping on 4/22.


its also been done on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1444  (this one has no power requirement though)

The problem I have is that it isn't clear, I would have liked a bit better explanation saying that they would wait until a customer had one?

Seems like there taking BFL's side... I do see there waiting but perhaps tomorrow they see a video of a dev unit and close the bet?

Also after the stuff up with the last bet like this I think I am well within my rights to be a bit nervous as to how "fairly" this will be decided?

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