Can I predict the value of BTC/USD?

[I_bitcoin]

I once had Eureqa find a function that seemed to predict the price within about 2% accuracy, using data with 6 hours resolution; unfortunately i never tested how it would hold against new data.

When stuff starts getting "really real" you are going to need as near to the microsecond as possible quotes.   The big boys need microsecond data in order for their bots to work.

Right now you are probably lucky to get within seconds.   Then you can do some momentum style trading.  NASDAQ level 2 here we come .

[Altoidnerd]

For very short term day trading, a great start is

buy low sell high

[Altoidnerd]

I once had Eureqa find a function that seemed to predict the price within about 2% accuracy, using data with 6 hours resolution; unfortunately i never tested how it would hold against new data.

When stuff starts getting "really real" you are going to need as near to the microsecond as possible quotes.   The big boys need microsecond data in order for their bots to work.
Right now you are probably lucky to get within seconds.   Then you can do some momentum style trading.  NASDAQ level 2 here we come .

The momentum fourier analysis type dealy would seem to work however I agree trading engine lag on GOX is too shitty for anything really awesome.

To be honest, it's been far more profitable for me to trade the alts.  They are pretty predictable.  The market is young, it's not hard to take a position in a trending altcoin on cryptsy and sell it off in 10 minutes for a profit. 

Come to www.reddit.com/r/cryptomarkets

[EverettMarm]

For a school project, I once tested a bunch of machine learning algorithms on a bunch of macroeconomic data. They were surprisingly accurate at predicting even 2 years out on every time series except stock indexes and producer price indexes (I'm not sure why it was so hard to predict producer price indexes).

[TiagoTiago]

Btw, if anyone wanna try doing what i was talking about, you can get Eureqa from http://www.nutonian.com/


edit: hm, looks like it became trialware for anyone that wasn't already using the older versions... :/

[Altoidnerd]

For a school project, I once tested a bunch of machine learning algorithms on a bunch of macroeconomic data. They were surprisingly accurate at predicting even 2 years out on every time series except stock indexes and producer price indexes (I'm not sure why it was so hard to predict producer price indexes).

I find cryptos more predictable than stocks. Probably because of my age, experience, many reasons...but I feel stock prices are subject to even more manipulation, believe it or not, than crypto prices.  Twitter seems to have an affect on (and is affected by) the altcoin markets.

But the news and stock prices.  Shit.  There is much that goes on above our heads.  People play with bitcoin market caps on the NYSE.  Shit is unpredictable as anything because you're trying to solve a game theory problem with almost no information, compared with your competitors.

[Altoidnerd]

Btw, if anyone wanna try doing what i was talking about, you can get Eureqa from http://www.nutonian.com/


edit: hm, looks like it became trialware for anyone that wasn't already using the older versions... :/

This looks awesome.  If you can find the full version, I'd be down as a clown to see it and would tip you much crypto so profit.

[ElectricMucus]

I once had Eureqa find a function that seemed to predict the price within about 2% accuracy, using data with 6 hours resolution; unfortunately i never tested how it would hold against new data.

I need to figure out a way to get a finer resolution set covering the whole history; and need to get a better PC to process that without having to worry about overheating the CPU and trashing the HDD with too much use of the swap file.


Obviously, i would expect the model would only be good for doing very short term predictions, and would need to be updated as new data comes in order to retain any level of accuracy; but very short term might be enough for daytrading.

cool story tell it again

[TiagoTiago]

Btw, if anyone wanna try doing what i was talking about, you can get Eureqa from http://www.nutonian.com/


edit: hm, looks like it became trialware for anyone that wasn't already using the older versions... :/

This looks awesome.  If you can find the full version, I'd be down as a clown to see it and would tip you much crypto so profit.

Try https://web.archive.org/web/20121011005629/http://www.nutonian.com/download/

That seems to be the most recent version they captured before the change that added restrictions.

Also, from their description it seems that you don't got restrictions if you use the API in conjunction with the dedicated server instead of the GUI program, i haven't tried though. Both can be found at http://www.nutonian.com/download/ if you wanna give it a go.

[TiagoTiago]

Actually, it seems the download for the previous version is still on their current servers: http://download.nutonian.com/formulize_0_98_1_setup.exe (there was a small period when they changed the name to Formulize for some reason, it's back to Eureqa now).

If you need the download for something other than Windows, let me know if you can't figure out the download link and i'll try to find it too.

[TiagoTiago]

I once had Eureqa find a function that seemed to predict the price within about 2% accuracy, using data with 6 hours resolution; unfortunately i never tested how it would hold against new data.

I need to figure out a way to get a finer resolution set covering the whole history; and need to get a better PC to process that without having to worry about overheating the CPU and trashing the HDD with too much use of the swap file.


Obviously, i would expect the model would only be good for doing very short term predictions, and would need to be updated as new data comes in order to retain any level of accuracy; but very short term might be enough for daytrading.

cool story tell it again

I'm not very good at doing things all the way, and this was demanding too much of my hardware even before i could be sure it would be worth it. So i never got to the point of taking screenshots and doing other stuff people do when they're proud of what they achieved, much less of having any proof i was even on the right track. I believe i made clear on my post it looked promising but i hadn't managed to go all the way with it yet; what more do you want?

[Altoidnerd]

Actually, it seems the download for the previous version is still on their current servers: http://download.nutonian.com/formulize_0_98_1_setup.exe (there was a small period when they changed the name to Formulize for some reason, it's back to Eureqa now).

If you need the download for something other than Windows, let me know if you can't figure out the download link and i'll try to find it too.

It's cool I have winders 7, much thanx

[macsga]

OK. Let's all remember a bit of calculus here. For a given f(x)=ax⁴−bx³−cx²+d, continuous on an interval I and differentiable on the interior of I, we remember from school that:

If f'(x)>0 for all x in I, then f is increasing on I.
If f'(x)<0 for all x in I, then f is decreasing on I.

Look here for an example: http://www.math.hmc.edu/calculus/tutorials/extrema/ and to remember how to determine minimal/maxima from first derivative of f(x).

Now imagine this to be done for a tiny fraction of time interval with a (FAST) link to an exchange API. This is what I'd call perfect control. Coders?
I'm willing to fund such a program.

Actually, it seems the download for the previous version is still on their current servers: http://download.nutonian.com/formulize_0_98_1_setup.exe (there was a small period when they changed the name to Formulize for some reason, it's back to Eureqa now).

If you need the download for something other than Windows, let me know if you can't figure out the download link and i'll try to find it too.

Thanks for this!!! It's a great program! I used to use Origin for such calculations... but this is REALLY nice! 

[Altoidnerd]

OK. Let's all remember a bit of calculus here. For a given f(x)=ax⁴−bx³−cx²+d, continuous on an interval I and differentiable on the interior of .....

If you look at gox movement, I'm way more inclined to represent it with orthogonal functions.  I've never seen such a fine example of

exp[-t/t']Σ_na_nsin[ω_n t + k_n]

look at the linear impulse response holy moly!!



Well of course I have but only from my bad ass NMR data.

[macsga]

OK. Let's all remember a bit of calculus here. For a given f(x)=ax⁴−bx³−cx²+d, continuous on an interval I and differentiable on the interior of .....

If you look at gox movement, I'm way more inclined to represent it with orthogonal functions.  I've never seen such a fine example of

exp[-t/t']Σ_na_nsin[ω_n t + k_n]

look at the linear impulse response holy moly!!



Well of course I have but only from my bad ass NMR data.

Hmmm... interesting concept! Do you have evindence that this might actually work?

[Altoidnerd]

Well look at it!  Nuff said?

Its a strong feeling say.  As a trader I have felt the harmonic presence you know.  Like tides dude.

[Altoidnerd]

Hmmm... interesting concept! Do you have evindence that this might actually work?

I mean I often would base trades on those momentum waves you see below.  I would check the 1 minute, 3 minute, 5 minute, 10, minute...all components.  When they were moreso green you;d see gains...superposition of the frequencies results and if you are like us you can sort of add that up in your head by scanning.

[macsga]

Hmmm... interesting concept! Do you have evindence that this might actually work?

I mean I often would base trades on those momentum waves you see below.  I would check the 1 minute, 3 minute, 5 minute, 10, minute...all components.  When they were moreso green you;d see gains...superposition of the frequencies results and if you are like us you can sort of add that up in your head by scanning.

It's an interesting concept. I will stare at it and look what it becomes through time. I'm sure you're right though. I'm not so sceptic about it.

[Altoidnerd]

Hmmm... interesting concept! Do you have evindence that this might actually work?

I mean I often would base trades on those momentum waves you see below.  I would check the 1 minute, 3 minute, 5 minute, 10, minute...all components.  When they were moreso green you;d see gains...superposition of the frequencies results and if you are like us you can sort of add that up in your head by scanning.

It's an interesting concept. I will stare at it and look what it becomes through time. I'm sure you're right though. I'm not so sceptic about it.

Seriously, go on gox and just look at the momenta on various time scales.  You'll see it.

I mean as physicists we tend to know that its a wave right.  has to be... heh

#physicsjerk

[macsga]

Hmmm... interesting concept! Do you have evindence that this might actually work?

I mean I often would base trades on those momentum waves you see below.  I would check the 1 minute, 3 minute, 5 minute, 10, minute...all components.  When they were moreso green you;d see gains...superposition of the frequencies results and if you are like us you can sort of add that up in your head by scanning.

It's an interesting concept. I will stare at it and look what it becomes through time. I'm sure you're right though. I'm not so sceptic about it.

Seriously, go on gox and just look at the momenta on various time scales.  You'll see it.

I mean as physicists we tend to know that its a wave right.  has to be... heh

#physicsjerk

LOL!

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btcchina/btccny

Hmmm... it's the same here!