Difficulty.....It can't keep going up 30% each increase.

[Rampion]

Free electricity?  I would love to see the face of your landlord when he sees the bill from your 2 Neptunes hashing all day

In Russia "free" electricity is rather common!
BTW, no single industrial-scale miner will ever be able to compete with a nerd keeping his miner in the basement connected to "free" electricity!  

You seem to forget that industrial-scale miners can get free or almost-free electricity too. Many Southern-European industries are moving to North Africa because Government gives them free electricity.

If free electricity is needed for big corporations to be competitive, then big corporations will have free electricity. That's how capitalism works.

[1715598079]

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[1715598079]

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[empoweoqwj]

Nothing is "free" in this world. The governments must want something back in return if they are giving electriicity away - like lots of taxes ?

[A L I E N]

Mining equipment will continue to become more powerful and efficient, but most importantly the ever increasing competition will make them cheaper.  So in six months you may be able to get a 3-5 TH miner for the $1500.  I do agree though, that the current exponential rate of increasing difficulty does not incentive the average miner to reinvest BTC in upgraded hardware..

[Rampion]

Nothing is "free" in this world. The governments must want something back in return if they are giving electriicity away - like lots of taxes ?

No. Just foreign investment. You rent the land (for cheap) you rent local workers (for very cheap) you pay your taxes locally (ridiculously cheap) and you get a huge load of benefits, among which free or almost free electricity.

The point is that believing that "home miners" will be more competitive than industrial/pro miners is delusional. If you understand how capitalism works you know pro miners will always squeeze out amateur ones.

[empoweoqwj]

Nothing is "free" in this world. The governments must want something back in return if they are giving electriicity away - like lots of taxes ?

No. Just foreign investment. You rent the land (for cheap) you rent local workers (for very cheap) you pay your taxes locally (ridiculously cheap) and you get a huge load of benefits, among which free or almost free electricity.

The point is that believing that "home miners" will be more competitive than industrial/pro miners is delusional. If you understand how capitalism works you know pro miners will always squeeze out amateur ones.

Well I certainly agree that pro miners will squeeze out amateur ones. That's why industry is massive and people doing stuff at home isn't

[BitCoin Operated Boy]

I really can't understand where next 32% difficulty rise in 13 dyas will be coming from if there have been no new mining rigs shipped.
Last batches were shipped by KNC and Technobit in the end of November.

Next shipment of rigs wil be done by Hashfast in the beginning of January. Then Bitmine, Cointerra and Black Arrow will join beween the end of January and March.

So where the hell is this next high 32% difficulty coming from?

Also even with increase of the number of rigs staying at the same technological threshold (chip efficiency limitations) there should be slow down in difficulty increase.
What happens is the opposite. It is still growing exponentially.

It doesn't make sense.

[empoweoqwj]

I really can't understand where next 32% difficulty rise in 13 dyas will be coming from if there have been no new mining rigs shipped.
Last batches were shipped by KNC and Technobit in the end of November.

Next shipment of rigs wil be done by Hashfast in the beginning of January. Then Bitmine, Cointerra and Black Arrow will join beween the end of January and March.

So where the hell is this next high 32% difficulty coming from?

Also even with increase of the number of rigs staying at the same technological threshold (chip efficiency limitations) there should be slow down in difficulty increase.
What happens is the opposite. It is still growing exponentially.

It doesn't make sense.

I very much doubt there have been no mining rigs shipped since end of November. I know people bringing rigs online all the time.

Also struggling with this "Also even with increase of the number of rigs staying at the same technological threshold (chip efficiency limitations) there should be slow down in difficulty increase."

Its just about network hash rate. The more chips that are running, the higher the rate will be. Clearly lots more chips are being added daily, and also at ever increasing hashrates.

You don't have to believe me, just look at the network hashrate increase.

[BitCoin Operated Boy]

Yes I watch network hashrate every day. I know it's increasing but that's my point.

You don't have to believe me, just look at the network hashrate increase. That's my point. Even with such network hashrate jumps teh difficulty shoudl exponentially decrease but it seems to be rising steadily at the same pace. There hasn't been any sudden technoogical advancement in chip performance so even if number of hashing chips grows the diffculty should increase should slow down until there is new more efficeint technology instiruduced (even much faster chips).

By the way, do you have any ideas where recently plugged in rigs may be coming from? Some larger companies introducing their own bespoke rigs maybe?

I really can't understand where next 32% difficulty rise in 13 dyas will be coming from if there have been no new mining rigs shipped.
Last batches were shipped by KNC and Technobit in the end of November.

Next shipment of rigs wil be done by Hashfast in the beginning of January. Then Bitmine, Cointerra and Black Arrow will join beween the end of January and March.

So where the hell is this next high 32% difficulty coming from?

Also even with increase of the number of rigs staying at the same technological threshold (chip efficiency limitations) there should be slow down in difficulty increase.
What happens is the opposite. It is still growing exponentially.

It doesn't make sense.

I very much doubt there have been no mining rigs shipped since end of November. I know people bringing rigs online all the time.

Also struggling with this "Also even with increase of the number of rigs staying at the same technological threshold (chip efficiency limitations) there should be slow down in difficulty increase."

Its just about network hash rate. The more chips that are running, the higher the rate will be. Clearly lots more chips are being added daily, and also at ever increasing hashrates.

Yes I watch network hashrate every day. I know it's increasing but that's my point.

You don't have to believe me, just look at the network hashrate increase. That's my point. Even with such network hashrate jumps teh difficulty shoudl exponentially decrease but it seems to be rising steadily at the same pace. There hasn't been any sudden technoogical advancement in chip performance so even if number of hashing chips grows the diffculty should increase should slow down until there is new more efficeint technology instiruduced (even much faster chips).

By the way, do you have any ideas where recently plugged in rigs may be coming from? Some larger companies introducing their own bespoke rigs maybe?

[zimmah]

I really can't understand where next 32% difficulty rise in 13 dyas will be coming from if there have been no new mining rigs shipped.
Last batches were shipped by KNC and Technobit in the end of November.

Next shipment of rigs wil be done by Hashfast in the beginning of January. Then Bitmine, Cointerra and Black Arrow will join beween the end of January and March.

So where the hell is this next high 32% difficulty coming from?

Also even with increase of the number of rigs staying at the same technological threshold (chip efficiency limitations) there should be slow down in difficulty increase.
What happens is the opposite. It is still growing exponentially.

It doesn't make sense.

I very much doubt there have been no mining rigs shipped since end of November. I know people bringing rigs online all the time.

Also struggling with this "Also even with increase of the number of rigs staying at the same technological threshold (chip efficiency limitations) there should be slow down in difficulty increase."

Its just about network hash rate. The more chips that are running, the higher the rate will be. Clearly lots more chips are being added daily, and also at ever increasing hashrates.

You don't have to believe me, just look at the network hashrate increase.

yes but 1000 new cointerras (2TH each, 2PH total) going online while the global hashrate is 70 PH will increase the difficulty by 2.86% while the same 1000 cointerras will increase the difficulty by only 2.2% while the global hashrate is 90PH.

so to keep growing with 30% per 2 weeks there have to come exponentially more miners, which is unlikely to happen. altough i have to say i'm amazed that the hashrate is growing this fast.

[cr1776]

If the hash rate is increasing, the difficulty will not decrease, let alone exponentially decrease.  

The differences in the process used by Avalon (110nm) and now (28nm?) is tremendous so there has been a large advancement in the chips this year let alone comparing with last year.  Even this fall the number of ASICs using a smaller process is large. I agree that eventually the performance increases per chip will slow, but we're not there yet.  

Difficulty increases will slow when most miners are running 28nm process or smaller chips.  Like the shift between CPU and GPU - there was a huge increase, then a leveling off.

Yes I watch network hashrate every day. I know it's increasing but that's my point.

You don't have to believe me, just look at the network hashrate increase. That's my point. Even with such network hashrate jumps teh difficulty shoudl exponentially decrease but it seems to be rising steadily at the same pace. There hasn't been any sudden technoogical advancement in chip performance so even if number of hashing chips grows the diffculty should increase should slow down until there is new more efficeint technology instiruduced (even much faster chips).

By the way, do you have any ideas where recently plugged in rigs may be coming from? Some larger companies introducing their own bespoke rigs maybe?

[darcimer]

Is it possible the big equipment manufacturers are currently producing, testing, and "mining while the mining's good" with your prepaid-for machines?
That could explain the network hash rate increase, which I suspect could mean the big hash rate increase we are expecting Q1/Q2 could be already be being averaged in.
However, a quick glance at the network hash rate http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Shows that we have experienced/are experiencing a significant hash rate decline.  Why? I have no idea.  Guesses: Any combination of China's policy change, rise in ddos attacks, bitcoin price volatility, and seasonal/holiday fluctuations.  I hope that trend continues for a little while.

[johnyj]

Is it possible the big equipment manufacturers are currently producing, testing, and "mining while the mining's good" with your prepaid-for machines?
That could explain the network hash rate increase, which I suspect could mean the big hash rate increase we are expecting Q1/Q2 could be already be being averaged in.
However, a quick glance at the network hash rate http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Shows that we have experienced/are experiencing a significant hash rate decline.  Why? I have no idea.  Guesses: Any combination of China's policy change, rise in ddos attacks, bitcoin price volatility, and seasonal/holiday fluctuations.  I hope that trend continues for a little while.

Chinese police attacking mining farms 

[empoweoqwj]

Difficulty increase will only taper off because of economics, not technology. Technologically, this is a *very* young industry. By economics, I mean .... when it stops becoming economically viable for people to produce / buy the kit, because nobody is making money (now?)

[Clayce]

Also, most if not all the profit from mining hardware comes off the resell of the machine..

[byronbb]

There is always the possibility of the existence of private mining enterprises not geared towards the consumer market. If you wanted to invest heavily into bitcoin (like multiple millions) buying coins is impossible without slippage. So assuming you had the technical ability you could just make yourself some serious hardware and mine like hell.

[empoweoqwj]

There is always the possibility of the existence of private mining enterprises not geared towards the consumer market. If you wanted to invest heavily into bitcoin (like multiple millions) buying coins is impossible without slippage. So assuming you had the technical ability you could just make yourself some serious hardware and mine like hell.

Of course there are. Not everyone sells their mining kit off to consumers. Several business models exist.

[BitCoin Operated Boy]

Cointerrra has officially released/shipped jack shit so far. Of course it doesn't mean they are not exploiting the network now using customer's miners pretending they are not in production process yet - it is self evident and intrisic for monetary system that priority is profit and human and envirnmental well being is secondary. You cannot trust anyone in current fiat monetary based system as lack of trust is the ingrown trait within cyclical consumption/planned obsolesence/consumerism profit focused monetary system. Cointerra has been releasing vague news for months - all brought no coherent data but barren information. It all have looked like automatic response to competition's news updates - suspicious. Something is not going smooth with Cointera and they seem to be too afrafd to admit their failure. Hashfast, Bitmine and Black Arrow seem legit. Hashfast is in the process of shipping fist batch soon and Bitmine/Black Arrow are also quite legit because they have a lot experience and have acquired trustful chip manufacturer contacts after they already released and provided miners before deadtime in the past.
Anyway...
At the moment Hashfast is leading releasing miners within next 2 weeks followed by Bitmine and Black Arrow.
And yes, I agree that until all manufacturers reach 28nm technologial limits of their chips, difficulty should not stop exponentially growing. You are right

[CoinCidental]

A major factor will be human greed same as the fiat bankers we are trying to replace  with a btc system

If company A makes a rapid discovery ,they can manufacture the first  few batches and profit while telling customers
they are "coming  soon " or " not ready yet " ........

if they can get a  month or more mining with faster chips and then deliver the first handful to the public

then do the same  with every subsequent batch shippping say 10% of manufactured  units out and putting 90% to
work in a private farm

rinse and repeat until all customers have their cards ,they will have made a shittonne of extra profit in those few months
keeping everybody waiting

[greenlion]

The vast majority of this discussion is completely missing the point of what the OP is bringing up.

His question is what machines out there are actually raising difficulty this much right now.

None of the next gen machines batches are out yet. Are there enough 55nm Bitfury chips out there being placed on privately-designed PCB's to produce these numbers?

[empoweoqwj]

The OP said there was no new mining equipment being brought online at the moment, and therefore couldn't understand the difficulty rise. This is self-evidently wrong.