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Author Topic: No blocks solved in 50 minutes?  (Read 1712 times)
Furyan
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August 17, 2011, 01:57:43 PM
 #1

This seems odd to me, given the computing power of the network.  I haven't seen this since I started tracking it.

Any clues?  I've seen blips of 20-30 minutes before but nothing this long.

Goes to show the "luck" part of the whole equation...
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jackjack
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August 17, 2011, 01:59:30 PM
 #2

Variance and maybe the hashpower used in ixcoin and i0coin

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August 17, 2011, 02:00:11 PM
 #3

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given the computing power of the network

Remember difficulty
Furyan
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August 17, 2011, 02:00:52 PM
 #4

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given the computing power of the network

Remember difficulty

The difficulty is tuned to keep the rate of generation essentially constant.  A blip like this is anything but...
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August 17, 2011, 02:05:12 PM
 #5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
Here is your explanation.
Look at the graphs if you don't care about the math.

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August 17, 2011, 02:06:33 PM
 #6

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given the computing power of the network

Remember difficulty

The difficulty is tuned to keep the rate of generation essentially constant.  A blip like this is anything but...
Yup, but the computing power means nothing, cause difficulty regulate the block production rate

and 50 minutes is not so strange
matsh
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August 17, 2011, 02:09:31 PM
 #7

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
Here is your explanation.
Look at the graphs if you don't care about the math.

Normal distribution can't possibly be correct, since that would imply it could go down below zero minutes. Poisson, perhaps?
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August 17, 2011, 02:13:11 PM
 #8

Anyway, we have a new block now. It took 57 minutes and 46 seconds...
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August 17, 2011, 02:15:38 PM
 #9

Variance and maybe the hashpower used in ixcoin and i0coin

noone else commenting on this? i think there's no 'maybe' about it... if you've followed either of those threads you'd know many hundreds (or thousands) of Ghash/s have switched over from bitcoin mining.

probably temporary if those other currencies die off quickly.
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August 17, 2011, 02:19:50 PM
 #10

There have been periods of a couple hours before where no block was solved. It's just variance in the random ability of the network to solve the hash.
Gabi
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August 17, 2011, 02:20:26 PM
 #11

Basing on:



Hashrate basically didn't really chance due to ixcoin, i0coin, gabicoin and whatelsecoin...
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August 17, 2011, 02:35:41 PM
 #12

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
Here is your explanation.
Look at the graphs if you don't care about the math.

Normal distribution can't possibly be correct, since that would imply it could go down below zero minutes. Poisson, perhaps?

Oops of course you're right, I guess I am guilty of the same thing I accused OP of  Embarrassed

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August 17, 2011, 02:52:10 PM
 #13

I0coin is essentially an Insurance policy versus year 0 of Bitcoin. If Satoshi decides to start spending any of his 1 to 1.5 million BTC, we need to have a valid alternative. I0coin is such an alternative. IXcoin is an inflated version of Bitcoin with a different guy doing the initial mining and having a huge wallet to start with. I0coin is probably the most democratic currency option we have presently, barring the exception of Artforz, who is mining a lot.
So basically, I0coin is based upon a myth?

Cool.
hashcoin
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August 17, 2011, 03:01:35 PM
 #14

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
Here is your explanation.
Look at the graphs if you don't care about the math.

Normal distribution can't possibly be correct, since that would imply it could go down below zero minutes. Poisson, perhaps?


The number of blocks found in a fixed time interval is Poisson.  But the actual time between blocks, that is Exponential (actually, Geometric, but the former is a good approx to the latter for small success probabilities).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution

Suppose you have a coin that is biased so it lands heads w.p. p.  Then Geometric(p) is the distribution of the number of times you need to flip a coin before seeing heads.  You can view testing a nonce as a coinflip of very small bias.
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August 17, 2011, 04:15:09 PM
 #15

Yup, but the computing power means nothing, cause difficulty regulate the block production rate

First I thought that more computing power would mean less variance because of law of large numbers. However, since the probability is inversely proportional to the number of trials, the variance coarsely stays the same, am I right?

Variance and maybe the hashpower used in ixcoin and i0coin

noone else commenting on this? i think there's no 'maybe' about it... if you've followed either of those threads you'd know many hundreds (or thousands) of Ghash/s have switched over from bitcoin mining.

probably temporary if those other currencies die off quickly.

As Gabi has noted, network computational speed variability doesn't seem to have changed. I don't think there is immense interest towards those blockchains. I don't know how to check it myself but difficulties sould reflect this fact.
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August 17, 2011, 05:10:04 PM
 #16

within the last week or so I've seen deepbit solve a block in 630 hashes and one in 13,000,000 hashes.... thats chance for you
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August 17, 2011, 05:15:03 PM
 #17

The currency fork that provides an encrypted wallet by default is ALWAYS going to be better than one that doesn't. Additionally, the next biggest currency could probably use Unbalanced Oil and Vinegar cryptography for the public and private keys to thwart Shor's algorithm being used on a quantum computer. Put simply, if the core Bitcoin team has stopped innovating, then competing currencies are the solution. It's been over 6 months since Bitcoin breached $1 per, there is simply no excuse for not having an encrypted wallet unless the developers are being bought off or just lazy to the detriment to the rest of the community.

1. The developers are volunteers. Nobody is paying them. If they dont contribute they are not being lazy, they are just doing whatever they need to do. If you want you can take their place and contribute to the community.

2. Encrypted wallet is already in the git branch and will be in the next release.
Maged
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August 17, 2011, 09:14:41 PM
 #18

So basically, I0coin is based upon a myth?

Cool.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=37333.msg458441#msg458441

1. The developers are volunteers. Nobody is paying them. If they dont contribute they are not being lazy, they are just doing whatever they need to do. If you want you can take their place and contribute to the community.

Or I can just use a competing currency. Over time I'll see if it succumbs to being just as lethargic, and I can switch back or to another that is implementing features that are worthwhile. I like the idea of competing digital currencies, because it forces innovation upon developers and early adopters of each currency.
If you care that much about hi-tech clients, why don't you just take all the Bitcoin patches that are in the pipeline and compile them into a client? Because that's all these guys are doing. Wallet encryption is barely acceptable for alpha testing at the moment. Putting it in a release client is just insane. I hope I0Coins are lost because of this. Hopefully, that would teach these developers not to shoehorn pre-alpha code into their clients in the future.

Hawkix
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August 17, 2011, 09:47:22 PM
 #19

Besides, (not) having an encrypted wallet (or wallet at all) is not what defines Bitcoin. Its the client, not the protocol, nor the blockchain.

Personally, I consider all those "alt"coins just as curiosity with no long life. Consider namecoin, which, imho, has much higher practical benefits and still has to fight for attention of miners.

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Yuusha
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August 17, 2011, 10:47:11 PM
 #20

If you would please take some time to just use your brain (that's why you have it, after all) you would soon realize that all bitcoins mined in 2009 weren't mined by Satoshi.
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