BTC China Endgame??

[chesthing]

Who is going to take up the slack left by Chinese buyers? who will support and lift the price now?

[SuperHakka]

why do peeps come up woth these insane conspiratorial theories about what Chinese investors/exchanges are doing or not doing to the price of btc. why peeps just can't accept the natural order of the markets? what goes up quikly also be coming down quickly shortly after. or is it nobody knows two fcuks about trading  

[MAbtc]

I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.

Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.

Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.

A no-brainer, huh? This is the standard bitcointalk bull talk. I suspect the average Chinese bitcoin investor does not think like this.

[chesthing]

Why would the chinese buy into something that is useless to them and is obviously tumbling in value? There is no way you can spin the btcchina shutdown into something positive or even neutral. The point that making it illegal will increase volume via the black market is preposterous. This isn't meth, btc doesn't get you high - in fact it doesn't do  damn thing except represent something of value.
I believe in and find this technology fascinating. I do think it has long term  implications, but for the medium term it's value is fucked.

[Lloydie]

I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.

Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.

Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.

A no-brainer, huh? This is the standard bitcointalk bull talk. I suspect the average Chinese bitcoin investor does not think like this.

I don't think avg Btc user in china is dumb. The dumb ones have already converted.

The remainder will see Btc as a hedge. They have foreign accounts or know someone that does or are planning to travel.

Btc going underground in china will be interesting because we could see a full Btc ecosystem emerge. Cny for day to day stuff. Btc for foreign investments, gambling and other purchases.

How else can one play Satoshi dice, move large amounts of money overseas instantly or buy stuff overseas with less detection?

In a land where empty apartments are used as savings, btcs aren't necessarily a bad option.

[MAbtc]

I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.

Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.

Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.

A no-brainer, huh? This is the standard bitcointalk bull talk. I suspect the average Chinese bitcoin investor does not think like this.

I don't think avg Btc user in china is dumb. The dumb ones have already converted.

The remainder will see Btc as a hedge. They have foreign accounts or know someone that does or are planning to travel.

Btc going underground in china will be interesting because we could see a full Btc ecosystem emerge. Cny for day to day stuff. Btc for foreign investments, gambling and other purchases.

This is the standard bitcointalk bull talk.

No one with this outlook has demonstrated an understanding of Chinese investors, the degree of importance of CCP's position to them, or how this will unfold -- clearly the situation remains unresolved.

How do you know that a) the "dumb ones" have already converted, b) the remainder will see BTC as a hedge? And what are those proportions? It's funny because previously I recall so many perma bulls saying regulation will drive the price up -- now prohibition will. (No comment)

[N12]

As a western 20-something year old Bitcoiner, let me tell you what those Chinese people really are thinking. Didn't we have enough of this nonsense on r/bitcoin?

Bitcoins are not consumed. They can only be held and sold.

Rationalize it all you want, making an asset less liquid is bearish. Making an asset more liquid and accessible is bullish.

[gizmoh]

As a western 20-something year old Bitcoiner, let me tell you what those Chinese people really are thinking. Didn't we have enough of this nonsense on r/bitcoin?

Bitcoins are not consumed. They can only be held and sold.

Rationalize it all you want, making an asset less liquid is bearish. Making an asset more liquid and accessible is bullish.

+ 1

Bitcoin is more and more speculative and less utilized as currency. When money stops flowing, hodlers will come crying..

[gentlemand]

I'm pretty amazed at how few comments and how little insight there has been from Chinese people in China on any English-speaking boards. They may as well be living in a distant galaxy.

None of the developments there are positive. None of them should be remotely surprising to anyone. It is preferable that the developments were firm and rapid rather than happening further down the line.

[esse83]

I'm pretty amazed at how few comments and how little insight there has been from Chinese people in China on any English-speaking boards. They may as well be living in a distant galaxy.

None of the developments there are positive. None of them should be remotely surprising to anyone. It is preferable that the developments were firm and rapid rather than happening further down the line.

There is a chinese player who is very clear about the reality of this, its over, game over, check mate. Check out /u/lovebitcoin on reddit. The chinese are well aware, only the west thinks this is somehow possible to solve. Its not.

[windjc]

I'm pretty amazed at how few comments and how little insight there has been from Chinese people in China on any English-speaking boards. They may as well be living in a distant galaxy.

None of the developments there are positive. None of them should be remotely surprising to anyone. It is preferable that the developments were firm and rapid rather than happening further down the line.

There is a chinese player who is very clear about the reality of this, its over, game over, check mate. Check out /u/lovebitcoin on reddit. The chinese are well aware, only the west thinks this is somehow possible to solve. Its not.

Yes bitcoin is crippled in China. This is an obvious truth. But the typical bear talk is to assume that China was very important to Bitcoin. But, I contend, it was not.  China was never going to lead bitcoin anywhere. Yeah, they pumped the price higher than it would have normally gone quickly than it would have normally gone there. But, make no mistake, bitcoin is FAR better off long term having the US lead it. China is smoke and mirrors. They weren't going to lead shit.

[MAbtc]

I'm pretty amazed at how few comments and how little insight there has been from Chinese people in China on any English-speaking boards. They may as well be living in a distant galaxy.

None of the developments there are positive. None of them should be remotely surprising to anyone. It is preferable that the developments were firm and rapid rather than happening further down the line.

There is a chinese player who is very clear about the reality of this, its over, game over, check mate. Check out /u/lovebitcoin on reddit. The chinese are well aware, only the west thinks this is somehow possible to solve. Its not.

Yes bitcoin is crippled in China. This is an obvious truth. But the typical bear talk is to assume that China was very important to Bitcoin. But, I contend, it was not.  China was never going to lead bitcoin anywhere. Yeah, they pumped the price higher than it would have normally gone quickly than it would have normally gone there. But, make no mistake, bitcoin is FAR better off long term having the US lead it. China is smoke and mirrors. They weren't going to lead shit.

This is all contextual. I think it is difficult to argue that China is not very important when our exchanges are tied to BTC China. This hasn't changed. I agree with what you are saying, but given the current circumstance....

[windjc]

I'm pretty amazed at how few comments and how little insight there has been from Chinese people in China on any English-speaking boards. They may as well be living in a distant galaxy.

None of the developments there are positive. None of them should be remotely surprising to anyone. It is preferable that the developments were firm and rapid rather than happening further down the line.

There is a chinese player who is very clear about the reality of this, its over, game over, check mate. Check out /u/lovebitcoin on reddit. The chinese are well aware, only the west thinks this is somehow possible to solve. Its not.

Yes bitcoin is crippled in China. This is an obvious truth. But the typical bear talk is to assume that China was very important to Bitcoin. But, I contend, it was not.  China was never going to lead bitcoin anywhere. Yeah, they pumped the price higher than it would have normally gone quickly than it would have normally gone there. But, make no mistake, bitcoin is FAR better off long term having the US lead it. China is smoke and mirrors. They weren't going to lead shit.

This is all contextual. I think it is difficult to argue that China is not very important when our exchanges are tied to BTC China. This hasn't changed. I agree with what you are saying, but given the current circumstance....

Yes, but I contend that this is a weird short term situation driven primarily by day traders who are trying to figure out how much China mattered. So we have this weird situation where Gox and Stamp should just ignore China, but are waiting and watching.

I think this will resolve itself after Christmas (or after the new year) when new investment comes into the market, while BtcChina dissolves. Then I think it will be plain and obvious that China did not have that much impact on bitcoin and the markets can get back to being driven by healthier more stable fundamentals. Bitcoin is a technology innovation. It fits in with American innovation. China is a manufacturing state that replicates ideas cheaper.

Bitcoin is and should be lead by the US. The fact that US regulators have accepted it and the government hasn't opposed it, is the most bullish news in the history of bitcoin. Lets get China away from bitcoin and move on to better days ahead.

[MAbtc]

Agreed.

I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).

[chesthing]

The last posts say it all. Btc value is being held up on hope btcchina will find a way out of it's dilemma, and if not the btcchina closing will not hurt the value too bad. It's denial on both accounts, the only question is how far the value will sink before it starts climbing again without btcchina - that's where I want to buy.

[johnyj]

They just pushed out some new secure wallet service to attract coin savings, this proved that they are quickly running out of coins due to bitcoin withdraw pressure

[Lloydie]

As a western 20-something year old Bitcoiner, let me tell you what those Chinese people really are thinking. Didn't we have enough of this nonsense on r/bitcoin?

Bitcoins are not consumed. They can only be held and sold.

Rationalize it all you want, making an asset less liquid is bearish. Making an asset more liquid and accessible is bullish.

Same goes for cny. And cny production is greater than Btc.

The rich guys already have heaps of cny and apartments.

[Lloydie]

I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.

Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.

Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.

A no-brainer, huh? This is the standard bitcointalk bull talk. I suspect the average Chinese bitcoin investor does not think like this.

I don't think avg Btc user in china is dumb. The dumb ones have already converted.

The remainder will see Btc as a hedge. They have foreign accounts or know someone that does or are planning to travel.

Btc going underground in china will be interesting because we could see a full Btc ecosystem emerge. Cny for day to day stuff. Btc for foreign investments, gambling and other purchases.

This is the standard bitcointalk bull talk.

No one with this outlook has demonstrated an understanding of Chinese investors, the degree of importance of CCP's position to them, or how this will unfold -- clearly the situation remains unresolved.

How do you know that a) the "dumb ones" have already converted, b) the remainder will see BTC as a hedge? And what are those proportions? It's funny because previously I recall so many perma bulls saying regulation will drive the price up -- now prohibition will. (No comment)

No need for getting personal. This is a speculation thread. My opinion is as valid as yours. OTOH I'm not hostile to your views. I don't see why you should be hostile to mine. It's called a discussion. Chillax a little bro.

Btw, I'm not bullish on china. I just think that the selling pressure has probably moderated. I don't think we are going to see china push btcs up from here. I do see the big guys in china with the real mullah holding however.

I see growth in the ROW. See: www.bitcoinpulse.com.  A 7% weekly growth rate in wallets imply a doubling of wallets in ten weeks. I don't see that kind of growth in any other sector on planet earth.

[Lloydie]

Agreed.

I'm just one of these little day traders trying to figure out WTF is going on, and what news might come out regarding Chinese exchanges (and accordingly what weight people will give it).

In the short term, I agree that there is selling pressure. I can see why you might be agitated by my comments. You are short term. I'm not.

You are worried about day to day or even hourly moves. I'm more like the next few weeks or months.

BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.

[MAbtc]

BTW, I have never come across a really wealthy day trader. The guys that are rich are insiders, macro guys, the buy and hold guys and hedge fund guys. Don't get me wrong, some day traders do well, but on the whole they survive. They aren't really wealthy. This is just my observation generally and is the reason why I chose not to day trade.

Where did their money come from to begin with? If I had money, I wouldn't be day trading.

If I got in at $1, I'd be holding. I got in during the April crash and am up ~ 16000% since. You must admit, BTC/USD and altcoins are much easier to day trade than other markets. What pisses me off sometimes about the anti-trading crowd here is that many of them are comfortable with their BTC holdings. Those of us who entered much later are not. I am young and live pretty much paycheck to paycheck, so I never, ever could have gotten anywhere near where I am in terms of accumulation if not for trading.

I don't understand why Chinese guys want to sell bitcoins and get CNY.
The smartest move would be spending all remaining on exchange CNY to buy cheap bitcoins. This will be the best investment in their life.
I bet the owner of BTCchina has already grabbed as much as possible BTC and has become the part of bitcoin elite.

Even if you need to convert some of bitcoins in CNY, you can just go to Hong Kong, sell BTC for USD and then convert it into CNY.

Yeah, that seems obvious. Bitcoins just became more scarce in China. For those that understand the nature of rising global demand for them, it's a no-brainer to convert all remaining CNY to bitcoin, send the bitcoin to cold-storage, and forget about it for a while. Especially for a citizenry under heavy capitol controls without any obvious non-overbought place to put investment capital, I would think taking this final near-term opportunity to snag bitcoin would be the obvious play.

A no-brainer, huh? This is the standard bitcointalk bull talk. I suspect the average Chinese bitcoin investor does not think like this.

I don't think avg Btc user in china is dumb. The dumb ones have already converted.

The remainder will see Btc as a hedge. They have foreign accounts or know someone that does or are planning to travel.

Btc going underground in china will be interesting because we could see a full Btc ecosystem emerge. Cny for day to day stuff. Btc for foreign investments, gambling and other purchases.

This is the standard bitcointalk bull talk.

No one with this outlook has demonstrated an understanding of Chinese investors, the degree of importance of CCP's position to them, or how this will unfold -- clearly the situation remains unresolved.

How do you know that a) the "dumb ones" have already converted, b) the remainder will see BTC as a hedge? And what are those proportions? It's funny because previously I recall so many perma bulls saying regulation will drive the price up -- now prohibition will. (No comment)

No need for getting personal. This is a speculation thread. My opinion is as valid as yours. OTOH I'm not hostile to your views. I don't see why you should be hostile to mine. It's called a discussion. Just chillax a little.

Btw, I'm not bullish on china. I just think that the selling pressure has probably moderated. I don't think we are going to see china push btcs up from here. I do see the big guys in china with the real mullah holding however.

I see growth in the ROW. See: www.bitcoinpulse.com.  A 7% weekly growth rate in wallets imply a doubling of wallets in ten weeks. I don't see that kind of growth in any other sector on planet earth.

Huh? All I did was bold the phrase that was being ignored. The bullish perspectives I was referring took no effort to relate to the situation of Chinese investors -- only repeated the longstanding long term bull position espoused by many here. I don't see why you would take this as hostility.