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Author Topic: Up up up!  (Read 3405 times)
FlipPro
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August 20, 2011, 04:18:14 PM
 #21

My ~$7.50 orders are still in place.  I expect them to be filled sometime in the next few months when the next exchange is hacked or someone gets access to a fat wallet.dat.  It's only a matter of time as the potential rewards for pwning one file are so large. 

Nice theory..  but if concurrent issues of bitomat.pl losing it's wallet + mybitcoin only brought it down to approximately that level.. then your 7.50 catch point is probably only good if bitcoins are trading at around $15 or less (approx where they were before these problems)

I don't know how best to estimate the effect of major service failure/hacks... but I have a suspicion that if we see a rise to around $15 again soon, then people will realize that even these perceived 'major' events are really nothing more than a transient side issue as far as bitcoin itself is concerned.  Future such dips might therefore be less drastic.


+1 It's like if your local wachovia gets robbed does the dollar drop?

It's just the economy is in such an infant stage that speculators shoot it down for even the slightest mishaps, even if it's completely unrelated to Bitcoin or the block-chain itself (mybitcoin).

Mark my words, don't shoot yourself in 3 months when the price is tripple of what you are bidding... Seriously now's the time to buy

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August 20, 2011, 04:28:53 PM
 #22

But what about today?  Cool
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August 20, 2011, 04:40:57 PM
 #23

The weekend dip is back it seems. But this time the bid side is big enough to keep it above $11, maybe. It's easier to get bitcoins in than USD right now, which is why it's going down.

Anyone think fall and winter in the northern hemisphere will cause a rally? I certainly do.
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August 21, 2011, 02:48:48 AM
 #24

My ~$7.50 orders are still in place.  I expect them to be filled sometime in the next few months when the next exchange is hacked or someone gets access to a fat wallet.dat.  It's only a matter of time as the potential rewards for pwning one file are so large. 

Nice theory..  but if concurrent issues of bitomat.pl losing it's wallet + mybitcoin only brought it down to approximately that level.. then your 7.50 catch point is probably only good if bitcoins are trading at around $15 or less (approx where they were before these problems)

I don't know how best to estimate the effect of major service failure/hacks... but I have a suspicion that if we see a rise to around $15 again soon, then people will realize that even these perceived 'major' events are really nothing more than a transient side issue as far as bitcoin itself is concerned.  Future such dips might therefore be less drastic.
+1 It's like if your local wachovia gets robbed does the dollar drop?

A local bank getting robbed doesn't affect the price of the dollar.  Why would it?  Someone stealing maybe 0.00001% of all outstanding US currency is hardly going to shake the extremely deep and liquid market.  Customers don't lose any money as the bank is insured, and it's always possible for the government to step and replace the money.

Compare that with bitcoins, where the market is very thin and can be moved down a long way with just a few thousand bitcoins.  There is no recourse for those that lose their wallet.  No compensation and no possible way to retrieve the lost bitcoins.  Where before have users had the ability to store several hundred thousand dollars in a file?  Pwning someone's credit card or bank account number doesn't count, as it's just access to the account and not the actual account itself.  The customer is ultimately protected.  Bitcoins are a little like stuffing cash in the mattress, except that someone can raid your mattress from the other side of the world while you're sleeping.


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August 24, 2011, 01:04:42 AM
 #25

You might have sold to me, Ruski, I bought in at 11.50-ish.  I just don't see a large bitcoin holders dropping coins before they see what happens during and after the conference.  Why would they sell now?  I think there will be lots of small buys from eager beavers that eat their way up to $11.80 this weekend, with several large buys happening next week, pushing up and over $12 before the sellers start selling again.  My prediction: $14 by the end of the month.


Still happy with that decision?

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August 24, 2011, 05:18:26 PM
 #26

You might have sold to me, Ruski, I bought in at 11.50-ish.  I just don't see a large bitcoin holders dropping coins before they see what happens during and after the conference.  Why would they sell now?  I think there will be lots of small buys from eager beavers that eat their way up to $11.80 this weekend, with several large buys happening next week, pushing up and over $12 before the sellers start selling again.  My prediction: $14 by the end of the month.


Still happy with that decision?
Rally failed, huh. Think long-term though: we're still recovering from arguably the biggest drop in modern bitcoin history (price halved in two weeks) just a while ago, and consider that the 20-week moving average has never gone down in bitcoin history. There will be very strong support at $9.90 and might go up a while before two scenarios might happen: a steady dip through autumn in the northern hemisphere, or a strong rally that might last some while.
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August 24, 2011, 09:35:01 PM
 #27

You might have sold to me, Ruski, I bought in at 11.50-ish.  I just don't see a large bitcoin holders dropping coins before they see what happens during and after the conference.  Why would they sell now?  I think there will be lots of small buys from eager beavers that eat their way up to $11.80 this weekend, with several large buys happening next week, pushing up and over $12 before the sellers start selling again.  My prediction: $14 by the end of the month.


Still happy with that decision?

Eh, the market is determined by the whales.  Someone dropped 5k coins on Sunday, and there was another big sell of 10-15k coins on Monday, dropping the whole market.  The market is ripe for yet another whale to buy in, which would push the price right back up.  I'm fine with holding for now... and there's still another week until the end of the month... Smiley

Oh, and I may be down 8% with this buy-in, but my last buy-in was at 6.6 and I sold at 9, so I'm still way above water.
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August 25, 2011, 07:42:04 AM
 #28

Also, Murphy says that if I sell today, it'll shoot up tomorrow, guaranteed. Smiley
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August 25, 2011, 08:15:35 AM
 #29

Also, Murphy says that if I sell today, it'll shoot up tomorrow, guaranteed. Smiley
also if i hold, it'll crash

murphy is a subjective luckyless predictor

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August 25, 2011, 11:30:16 AM
 #30

Also, Murphy says that if I sell today, it'll shoot up tomorrow, guaranteed. Smiley

As long as you'll let us know when you sell it will be all right..
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August 25, 2011, 01:23:19 PM
 #31

Price will be going down to $9ish over the next week. Not fearmongering, thats just how it is. I'll be holding mined coins and buying when I see a bottom.

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August 25, 2011, 01:37:12 PM
 #32

The way things are going today price will $9 dollars by bedtime.

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August 25, 2011, 01:45:50 PM
 #33

The way things are going today price will $9 dollars by bedtime.

Going by chodpapa's last support/resistence chart, it looks like if we break the support in the 9.75-10.00 range then it looks like a fairly quick tumble back down to 6-7.
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August 25, 2011, 02:17:51 PM
 #34

In about 4 hours time there is an increase in trading activity. I am guessing that will decimate the $10 - 10.02 wall. From there its free fall!!

$6-7 24 hours.

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August 25, 2011, 02:22:53 PM
 #35

I wouldn't call that freefall, that would be at most 4-5 or below (longterm resistance). Can't see that we're going there.

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August 25, 2011, 02:29:54 PM
 #36

In the last 12 hours its dropped a dollar. why would anyone want to hold when you can cash out at $10 and jump back in at $9 with some extra coinage.

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August 25, 2011, 02:44:37 PM
 #37

In the last 12 hours its dropped a dollar. why would anyone want to hold when you can cash out at $10 and jump back in at $9 with some extra coinage.

I sense a little fear in that post  Grin when you sell your coins the perspective changes, you worry about the market shooting up rapidly, which it can do  Tongue

good luck either way
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August 25, 2011, 05:24:14 PM
 #38

fear would say do nothing and wait for things to happen that favour me.

I would say make all situations favourable to yourself. use the opportunities that come your way to your own advantage.

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August 25, 2011, 08:52:01 PM
 #39

Sometimes doing nothing is the hardest thing of all. When it feels like the world is coming down on your head, stop and think - if I was in the opposite position, what would I be thinking? Is it worth dumping now or is this the buy-high sell-low point that's gonna do me in?

As always, though, the only opinion that matters is your own. Wink

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August 26, 2011, 11:18:14 PM
 #40

We're dealing with a new currency that's inflating 0.1% per day.   This is the equiv of the fed printing 9 billion per day, 270 billion per month, $3.2 trillion per year - almost exactly the size of the 2010 US Federal budget 2010 (3.4 trillion; M2 money supply is 9 trillion)

I think things will be more stable in a year at 25 coins per block and 10M bitcoins in circulation, about 1/3rd the current inflation rate.  Until then, we're in the wild, wild west.
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