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Author Topic: I ran a test on BTCFlip.com  (Read 3652 times)
TiagoTiago
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September 18, 2011, 09:43:59 AM
 #21

You can view the source of the page with Firefox too (Control-U is the keyboard shortcut, but it's somewhere in the menus too), am i missing somthing? Why did you need to use IE at all?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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Desolator
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September 19, 2011, 01:10:55 AM
 #22

wow, one that actually places the odds on the page.  And a support number!  And....words....on the page!  Lots of them!  Now we've got something.  I might look into it but I'm kinda broke atm Tongue all non-sent to the exchange for holding money in my wallet is gone unfortunately after that awesome losing spree at flip.  BTCGuild has been having all kinds of random stupid issues (like being "unlucky" consistently for like 2 weeks and sending out incorrect idle notifications) but I finally have decent BTC coming in now from my backup pool.  Like 25% more per day!  Screw BTCGuild.  They're the best but they have some kind of scam or severe problem going on at the moment.

So I'll have to wait a bit to run a test but I'll post it in another thread.  You know, I'd have plenty of money if someone were to donate some to me for all my high risk research  Grin lol.  But since that's not gonna happen, wait a day or two and I'll have some results.  I'm shooting for another 50 round test.
payb.tc
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September 19, 2011, 02:59:57 AM
 #23

if it's shown to be bad with large bets and good with small bets, why not just take it for what it is, and play with small amounts?

i won 0.24 btc so why not Cheesy
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September 19, 2011, 04:57:52 AM
 #24

The correct answer to that seems to be because in a sample size of 1 round (which is what i had the money for) I won on double trouble lol.  So 49% (not yet confirmed) vs mystery odds that appear to be unfair...go with double trouble.  vy the way, the commission is 1% for flip so obviously their odds are set above 1%.  But like I said, I haven't tested it completely yet.  They do things opposite too.  Your payment is confirmed first for a long time then you do the determination then instantly get paid.  Flip does it like it takes your word up front, generates a result (unfairly), then doesn't pay you until the initial bet was confirmed.  That seems exploitable on the surface btw but I'm not sure if you can make a forged payment real at will after the fact.

And btw, you don't need 100,000 attempts at a simplistic odds thing.  You'd need 100,000 samples for blackjack or video poker but not a two outcome system.  I think 100 is even enough to say hmm that was within a few of 50/50 or wow I just won or lost 90 times.  And since i'm poor, I'm doing 50.
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February 26, 2012, 04:17:24 PM
 #25

Is btcflip.com still running normally?

I sent 2btc in order to play a game on btcflip.com at around 05:50 AM Feb/26th, 2012, GMT, but the game didn't start at all.

The address I sent 2btc is 1QKXYztB2zmVixTTvd89E2Bgh2LM7Uo3cD

Then I wrote a mail to admin@btcflip.com for help, no one reply the mail.

At 13:06 PM Feb/26th, 2012 GMT, I wrote another mail to admin@btcflip.com in case they didn't receive my previous mail, and still nothing replied.

Almost 12 hours has passed, now I wonder if this website is still runing normally? Is there anyone else  ever encountered a similar problem as I did?

btc123.com - bitcoin Info & Web directory
helloworld
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September 20, 2012, 04:28:14 AM
 #26

So, according to the forum rules, I'm now stuck with having this in my signature, unless I want to have no banner at all.

robbonz
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September 20, 2012, 06:10:28 AM
 #27

Has anyone tested mysitethatmayormaynotreturnyourbitcoins.com??

jeesus people...
helloworld
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September 20, 2012, 06:16:47 AM
 #28

Has anyone tested mysitethatmayormaynotreturnyourbitcoins.com??

jeesus people...

I just tested it. It appears down from here.

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September 20, 2012, 06:28:39 AM
 #29

 Cry
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September 20, 2012, 12:22:29 PM
 #30

I think 100 is even enough to say hmm that was within a few of 50/50 or wow I just won or lost 90 times.
You know what? With 100 fair coin flips you have 5.7% chance of getting a 10% wrong result (<40% or >60%), so NO. 100 tests don't tell you anything about being "within a few percent".

Please use statistics properly if you are trying to estimate fairness.

The chance of getting 11 out of 12 heads with a fair coin is much worse though: 3 out of a thousand. Still far from impossible though.
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September 20, 2012, 04:59:06 PM
 #31

I think 100 is even enough to say hmm that was within a few of 50/50 or wow I just won or lost 90 times.
You know what? With 100 fair coin flips you have 5.7% chance of getting a 10% wrong result (<40% or >60%), so NO. 100 tests don't tell you anything about being "within a few percent".

Please use statistics properly if you are trying to estimate fairness.

The chance of getting 11 out of 12 heads with a fair coin is much worse though: 3 out of a thousand. Still far from impossible though.

Exactly, so if they were tipping it more than a variance of 5.7% in their direction, there's a 90% chance I would have noticed it.  Tada.  So we can safely say it's not a 75/25 for example lol.
oldschool
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September 21, 2012, 08:21:08 PM
 #32

Has anyone tested mysitethatmayormaynotreturnyourbitcoins.com??

jeesus people...

I just tested it. It appears down from here.


+1

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