Total Hashrate Forecast Q1, Q2 2014 (Community work)

[BuildTheFuture]

Peta-mine has begun deployment, also announcing they are designing their own boards to work with a large supply of A1 chips.

http://www.peta-mine.co/petamine-will-deploy-700-ths-or-8-68-ghs-per-share/

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[bolverk]

Thank you for the update. Very informative.

You factor broken gear, but what about decommissioned hardware ?
When difficulty will go up, old hardware (1-100Gh/s) will eventualy be sent to the trash.
It may amount to 1-5 Phs.

I doubt they'll hash forever, even if some people have access to free power.

Eric

I think by the time hardware is decommissioned it will be so small as to not be noticed. For example if you try to find when cup mining stopped or gpu mining stopped. If everyone turned off their 300kh usb keys difficult will go up by 25% vs 25.3% next change. When 10gh blades are turned off it will be and increase of 25% vs 26% at next difficulty ect.

A lot of that old hardware is being sold to suckers on ebay, so even the unprofitable hashing power will stay around awhile.  Well, at least until Mom gets the electricity bill... ;-)

[de_ixie]

Reminder to self: Bitmine capacity confirmed 50unit/day a 1TH (=1-1.5PH/ month)

[ujka]

Video/photos of KNC's new farm:

http://www.gp.se/nyheter/sverige/1.2276893-datorhall-for-bitcoin-byggs-i-boden

http://imgur.com/a/jzT5E

The good news is part of it is already up and running, so likely one of those big Eligius users is KNC, and that is why they keep growing so much. Looks like the rest of this facility could be up and running by end of March? Maybe that's the bad news.

Good point - highly likely the top two eligius contributers (~2 PH) are KnC

People were claiming that the 2nd one (1Nbq) was Bitmain / Antminer.  They've been a heavy hitter in Eligius for a longer period, a few weeks at least, and they ramped up from ~500TH.  The 1st one (1A73) just hit within the last week.

Top Eligius contributor(s), in one tx
https://blockchain.info/tx/026f92da78db19fe561a05f0a77104619783452a8f24a4efed8719abd9553a95?show_adv=false

[alexrossi]

Great post, many thanks to the op, because i always wanted to do some fc about network hashrate

Seems that the first two eligius workers are the same person

[de_ixie]

Reminder to myself:

KnC Update:

https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-78

BFL Update:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/4414-monarch-information-2.html#post77863

Cointerra Update:

Shipped 1000 units

Hashfast Update:

Evo something ... lol

[Aexcu]

BITMAIN has announced that their AntMiner S1 / U1 / U2 solutions hold 20.3% of the network (February 2014).

According to http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ the network hash rate has been between 17.590 - 32.094 PH/s in February, 2014 (just taken off the graph, so there may be mistakes). Thus BITMAIN's claim would be in the range of 3.571 - 6,515 PH/s, but most likely in the 5.3 - 6.5 PH/s range due to the date posted (today).

Source: "20.3% of the Bitcoin network hashing power now (Feb 2014) is contributed by Antminer Solutions" https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=501034.msg5518711#msg5518711

[Korbman]

Obligatory 'bump' to include Spondoolies  -- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=521520.0

Unknown how many units they're got on the books so far, but we may be able to speculate.

[kleeck]

VMC (www.virtualminingcorp.com) just sold ~51Th/s and are planning on having ~200Th/s mining for ActiveMining by the end of April¹.They sold out all 100 Fash-Hash One Prospectors² they had in stock in about twelve hours. I'm not sure what the continued roll out schedule beyond this will look like but they're another one to watch.

¹

Weekly Update 3/19/2014

Here is the good news for March, we are rolling off the production line ~100 TH/s of mining gear which will be installed in our soon to be leased data-center.  We are expecting to have the 100 TH/s up and running on our BTCGuild account in the next 2 weeks, so everyone will be able to see the new hashing power.  We will then convert to sole mining over the next month.  After the first 100 TH/s is on line we will be increasing our hashing power on a regular basis.  We are expecting the next increase in hashing power to be ~100 TH/s within a month for a total of ~200 TH/s.

Active Mining PR Staff

²http://virtualminingcorp.com/shop1/index.php?id_product=38&controller=product

[kleeck]

VMC (www.virtualminingcorp.com) just sold ~51Th/s and are planning on having ~200Th/s mining for ActiveMining by the end of April¹.They sold out all 100 Fash-Hash One Prospectors² they had in stock in about twelve hours. I'm not sure what the continued roll out schedule beyond this will look like but they're another one to watch.

¹

Weekly Update 3/19/2014

Here is the good news for March, we are rolling off the production line ~100 TH/s of mining gear which will be installed in our soon to be leased data-center.  We are expecting to have the 100 TH/s up and running on our BTCGuild account in the next 2 weeks, so everyone will be able to see the new hashing power.  We will then convert to sole mining over the next month.  After the first 100 TH/s is on line we will be increasing our hashing power on a regular basis.  We are expecting the next increase in hashing power to be ~100 TH/s within a month for a total of ~200 TH/s.

Active Mining PR Staff

²http://virtualminingcorp.com/shop1/index.php?id_product=38&controller=product

All of kslaugther's announcements to date have turned out to be lies. Go away.

ActM Eligius
Independent Verification and Setup Guide
You can also track VMC sales via their website. - At time of writing their are 165 units left in stock of 200.

Thanks guys.

[VinceSamios]

VMC (www.virtualminingcorp.com) just sold ~51Th/s and are planning on having ~200Th/s mining for ActiveMining by the end of April¹.They sold out all 100 Fash-Hash One Prospectors² they had in stock in about twelve hours. I'm not sure what the continued roll out schedule beyond this will look like but they're another one to watch.

¹

Weekly Update 3/19/2014

Here is the good news for March, we are rolling off the production line ~100 TH/s of mining gear which will be installed in our soon to be leased data-center.  We are expecting to have the 100 TH/s up and running on our BTCGuild account in the next 2 weeks, so everyone will be able to see the new hashing power.  We will then convert to sole mining over the next month.  After the first 100 TH/s is on line we will be increasing our hashing power on a regular basis.  We are expecting the next increase in hashing power to be ~100 TH/s within a month for a total of ~200 TH/s.

Active Mining PR Staff

²http://virtualminingcorp.com/shop1/index.php?id_product=38&controller=product

Has this been quoted regarding Act?

5000 boards (2.5PH) in april
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=206488.msg5995764#msg5995764

[de_ixie]

Final Words and Closing

Everybody, this is my last update on this thread. I am quite bound in different other tasks and will not have the time to observe, analyze and comment all current trends in detail anymore. This is unfortunate but sloppy analysis due to time pressure is below my standards, so I better quit to not give any false predictions  - Thank you everybody for your inputs and useful hints. Feel free to continue the thread or overtake.

This said, it doesnt mean I completely abandon our forecast of ~95 PH by end of June 2014. In contrary, I think it is still very viable even without looking forward on the last three months of the observed timeframe.

Why? Our last datapoint is from Feb 05 2014 with a hashrate of 18.8 PH and last jump is from Apr 05 2014 with 43.8 PH which means 2 month account for roughly 25 PH. In our last forecast update we predicted 10-15 PH per month until July. Looking on the last two months isolated our prediction was quite accurate until now and I dont see any game changing reasons.    

Right now we have different trends that slow down and reduce the PHs added (low BC price, MTGox damage, massive delays of basically all major vendors, rising energy expenses), but also compensating effects which speed up the growth (mainly new vendors popping up every day, lower hardware prices, massive datacenters etc...). This all evens out somehow and adds up to something between 10-15 PH per month for the next 3 months.

With big caution - final prediction: 90-100 PH by end of June 2014.

Cheers & I am out

[samsonn25]

I noticed just today about 700TH was added to the network today.  Is this mainly because of the first batch Antminer s2, some Cointerra

[novello]

Final Words and Closing

Everybody, this is my last update on this thread. I am quite bound in different other tasks and will not have the time to observe, analyze and comment all current trends in detail anymore. This is unfortunate but sloppy analysis due to time pressure is below my standards, so I better quit to not give any false predictions  - Thank you everybody for your inputs and useful hints. Feel free to continue the thread or overtake.

This said, it doesnt mean I completely abandon our forecast of ~95 PH by end of June 2014. In contrary, I think it is still very viable even without looking forward on the last three months of the observed timeframe.

Why? Our last datapoint is from Feb 05 2014 with a hashrate of 18.8 PH and last jump is from Apr 05 2014 with 43.8 PH which means 2 month account for roughly 25 PH. In our last forecast update we predicted 10-15 PH per month until July. Looking on the last two months isolated our prediction was quite accurate until now and I dont see any game changing reasons.    

Right now we have different trends that slow down and reduce the PHs added (low BC price, MTGox damage, massive delays of basically all major vendors, rising energy expenses), but also compensating effects which speed up the growth (mainly new vendors popping up every day, lower hardware prices, massive datacenters etc...). This all evens out somehow and adds up to something between 10-15 PH per month for the next 3 months.

With big caution - final prediction: 90-100 PH by end of June 2014.

Cheers & I am out

Thank you for all your hard work. I'm sure I speak for the many people that have viewed your post and used the information to plan their mining strategy.

[BuildTheFuture]

AM has mentioned to a shareholder they are planning to have produced over 100 PH of their gen3 chips through June. It does appear we may reach the exahash range by end of this year for the total network.

[samsonn25]

It's true that they've been claimed to be that Eligius address, however they are currently (also?!) mining in BTCGuild -> AntMiner -> 353,536.97 GH/s.

It seems that the AntMiner team is running at 969,515.18 GH/s now (ID 431 474).

Im sure most miners use more than one id and more than 1 pool.

Maybe you missed when they said the s1 was 20+% of network. That's minimum 11PH now. Or similar to 60000 s1

[RoadStress]

AM has mentioned to a shareholder they are planning to have produced over 100 PH of their gen3 chips through June. It does appear we may reach the exahash range by end of this year for the total network.

Do you see it doable with prices of ~1$/GH?

[novello]

AM has mentioned to a shareholder they are planning to have produced over 100 PH of their gen3 chips through June. It does appear we may reach the exahash range by end of this year for the total network.

Do you see it doable with prices of ~1$/GH?

At network rate of 1 exohash(?) ie 1,000,000 TH, with Btc at $500 you'd make roughly $49 a MONTH per Th of capacity. Same TH at 0.6 Joule/GH would consume nearly, wait for it, $49 a month in electricity if you pay the US average cost of 11 cents/kWh. Yes, I know you can get it for less than 4 cents per kWh in Washington state if you're an industrial customer, but most miners don't live there..

Even at 0.5 Joules/GH  you would pay $41 for your monthly electricity bill.

So the answer to the question is : No.

Even assuming you do get 4 cents perkWh / 0.6 Joules/GH you still only make $34  month. If you want that repaid in 9 months then your 1TH would need to cost 9 x $34 = $306, or $0.36/(GH/sec). 

[samsonn25]

Holy Crap the network just jumped 3.5 PH in the last half hour

[Gyrsur]

*listen*