I love these guys we gotta re visit this in 2014, they even have graphs

[jubalix]

http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12?IR=T#ixzz2np1O4HvS


I *hope* he is right as my dream of single digit cheap coins will come true

[piramida]

Pure FUD, not a single fact straight, what an idiot He obviously invested in litecoins judging by the article ending, but he fails to understand that the prices would be crushed (in his dreams, anyway) simultaneously.

Good that he posted his stupid prediction though; bad that he, as all the other trolls, won't be held accountable when it does not happen. He should post a bet

[Seanzqt]

This is why they call it SPECULATION! 

[F-bernanke]

Guess we'l have to wait till 2014 and see.

[smoothie]

$10? lol...im sure we wont get there with all of the fiat of newly interested parties coming into bitcoin.

[piramida]

This is why they call it SPECULATION! 

No it's not. There are two definitions, this forum is about the second, i.e. "investment in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss.". Not the crazy ass theories, or "the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence".

[Seanzqt]

This is why they call it SPECULATION! 

No it's not. There are two definitions, this forum is about the second, i.e. "investment in stocks, property, or other ventures in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss.". Not the crazy ass theories, or "the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence".

Bitcoin is all about speculation, you have these guys predicting $10, and others predicting different values, some say it will sky rocket, others say it will fall flat, have your pick it is speculation.

[Lethn]

There's a difference between actually predicting and speculating on a price and then just putting down what you want it to be, they've completely ignored the reverse head and shoulders that's formed right in front of their eyes and the amount of resistance that is showing on the candlesticks, the halfwits.

[EuroTrash]

How about this:

We crowd fund a bet with him that 2014 will close over 1k BTCUSD. If he loses he has to pay 10 BTC. If we lose we have to pay 10k USD.

Let's see if he has the balls to put his money where his mouth is.

[Lethn]

These people won't have any Bitcoins remember? Just worthless paper

[Carra23]

I want some 10$ Bitcoins.

[F-bernanke]

How about this:

We crowd fund a bet with him that 2014 will close over 1k BTCUSD. If he loses he has to pay 10 BTC. If we lose we have to pay 10k USD.

Let's see if he has the balls to put his money where his mouth is.

Yeah, good idea.

Since 10 BTC is only 100$ is his prediction is right.

[Wilhelm]

I want some 10$ Bitcoins.

Why would you want $10 BTC? If BTC goes $10 then it will kill bitcoin.

I'm waiting for "The chart" since this analysis is based on it

[Tzupy]

The article repeats some good points, well known by the bears and dismissed by the bulls, but I don't understand how he
came up with 10$ / coin in 2014. To get that low on Gox would require a bid sum of some 3M$ and 200k coins on the ask sum.
I find it very unlikely for the bid sum on Gox to drop (and persist) in 2014 under 10M$ and the ask sum to rise above 100k coins.

[GigaCoin]

http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12?IR=T#ixzz2np1O4HvS


I *hope* he is right as my dream of single digit cheap coins will come true

yeah i read that, his reasoning is that it's just a tulip mania completely ignoring the fundamentals and infrastructure developments behind bitcoin.

The only way i see single digit bitcoins is some sort of worldwide government ban, mainly the United States, Or Bitcoin hacked permanently (v unlikely) rendering it useless

Worst case scenario is IMO is $250 Bitcoin (april all time high) and won't stay long there.

[HeliKopterBen]

The author is predicting a 99.2% decline by July.  Good luck with that.  Its not gonna happen.  Keep in mind, if the price drops to $10.00 even and rallies from there, then I am right and he is wrong.

[YoYa]

BEHOLD! Dogma!

Since inception, Bitcoin has had a flawed DNA.  It was dreamed up in a virtual world -- by computer geeks -- but was to be applied in the real world.  Bitcoin is steep in Libertarian and anti-Fed dogma but weak in understanding of how global economics, central banking policies and financial markets function.  The lifeblood of the global capital markets is money – greenbacks -- transactional currency that facilitates commerce.  Virtual currency can create value and efficiency but it needs to be linked to fiscal and monetary policy.  To assume currency can be computer generated, run in a decentralized manner and outside of the central banking system and controls is farcical and economically dangerous.

If you can get around the many typo's, this is quite interesting. I myself don't really hold with Austrian econ and all that stuff, but at the same time what this guy is saying is ridiculous......this won't work even though it is more efficient, and can't work because it's outside his only known model.

Finance is a funny beast, I had a friend working in the BOE, they still have fuddy duddys with smoking parlours, wooden paneled rooms and the like. Monetary systems have largely been free from innovation for stability and also because govt's are not good at innovation. BTC isn't just an innovation in virtual currency, it's an innovation in a stagnant area of financial tech that's been untouched for almost 100 years. When you consider how most treasuries and based on a model that that not changed, that still causes problems in inflation/deflation and wealth distribution, you'll quickly realise how backward it all is......granted it's for a reason...ie you don't want to destabilise currency as it's big trouble....but that don't excuse it being a piss poor form of technology.

[Ibian]

The article repeats some good points, well known by the bears and dismissed by the bulls, but I don't understand how he
came up with 10$ / coin in 2014. To get that low on Gox would require a bid sum of some 3M$ and 200k coins on the ask sum.
I find it very unlikely for the bid sum on Gox to drop (and persist) in 2014 under 10M$ and the ask sum to rise above 100k coins.

I think he just drew some lines on a chart.

[ElectricMucus]

I want some 10$ Bitcoins.

Why would you want $10 BTC? If BTC goes $10 then it will kill bitcoin.

I'm waiting for "The chart" since this analysis is based on it

If it goes to XXX it won't kill bitcoin. The only 'price' which can kill it (in a sense that nobody would bother to store the blockchain) is if it were completely worthless, zero, 0 nada.
In every other scenario bitcoin will survive.

[piramida]

In every other scenario bitcoin will survive.

Not in the useable form, no. Once businesses switch to some other currency and most funds flow out of bitcoin, it is not raising again. Sure some people will have it running for a while, but it is not coming back from $10, not anymore. That would mean most investors and businesses completely lost faith and cashed out. After that, only a matter of time until the slowpokes of the world catch the drift.

[ElectricMucus]

In every other scenario bitcoin will survive.

Not in the useable form, no. Once businesses switch to some other currency and most funds flow out of bitcoin, it is not raising again. Sure some people will have it running for a while, but it is not coming back from $10, not anymore. That would mean most investors and businesses completely lost faith and cashed out. After that, only a matter of time until the slowpokes of the world catch the drift.

What are you saying that if it crashes to $10 it will become worthless eventually? Doesn't really make sense to me unless the reason for the crash is some fundamental problem with the software.
At $10 that is still over 100,000,000 USD worth the economy has to work with, money velocity has to be higher of course and it should be.

[Ibian]

The price is still - just like the other hundred times - driven by supply and demand. If the price drops that low it means the demand is almost entirely gone. There will be reasons for this.

[ElectricMucus]

There are always reasons, and so far I've not seen any which would suggest that $10, hell even $1 would represent too low demand. I think that answers the question on who the real "weak hands" are.
At $10 Bitcoin can support the entire Bitpay merchant network and at $1 the entire black market network. Again, money velocity would rise in such a case. 99%+ of all Bitcoins are hoarded but it doesn't have to be that way...

[jubalix]

I want some 10$ Bitcoins.

Why would you want $10 BTC? If BTC goes $10 then it will kill bitcoin.

I'm waiting for "The chart" since this analysis is based on it

actually no it wouldn't kill bitcoin at all....inmho.

[piramida]

What are you saying that if it crashes to $10 it will become worthless eventually? Doesn't really make sense to me unless the reason for the crash is some fundamental problem with the software.

For it to crash so low, there would have to be general consensus amongst investors that it has no future. Much of the price now is the future expectations. At such low valuation, there will be only bag-holders with actual fiat withdrawable from the network at (much) less than one million usd. Something that has a total capacity of much less than 1mil USD is considered a joke; see how press exploded after bitcoin valuation broke 1billion - this is the capacity worth starting to talk about.

It would be a very niche product for some time, maybe. But it won't be the dominant cryptocurrency, as all the money would be elsewhere.

[ElectricMucus]

"The general consensus against investors" means jack shit for the survival and utility of Bitcoin.

[nastybit]

Virtual currency can create value and efficiency but it needs to be linked to fiscal and monetary policy.

Maybe, maybe not. Some people like the idea to have some legislation some don't. I guess we will see in 2014.
..aaaand the article goes on for endless paragraphs, which if you follow the press section, are the recap of what has been said in the last few weeks.

No way the price is going to $10, there will always be people to support bitcoin or another cryptocurrency, you cannot kill an idea

[piramida]

"The general consensus against investors" means jack shit for the survival and utility of Bitcoin.

I meant amongst. And no, it does not. I can clone you a million of cryptos which would "survive" each on it's own mining PC, and maybe even have utility if you hold a gun at the other parties head. But the money, if they leave for greener pastures once, won't return anymore. So no new businesses, no infrastructure, no development, no headlines, no new adopters, dying coin.

[ElectricMucus]

"The general consensus against investors" means jack shit for the survival and utility of Bitcoin.

I meant amongst. And no, it does not. I can clone you a million of cryptos which would "survive" each on it's own mining PC, and maybe even have utility if you hold a gun at the other parties head. But the money, if they leave for greener pastures once, won't return anymore. So no new businesses, no infrastructure, no development, no headlines, no new adopters, dying coin.

That would imply a worthless coin, which I already said is lethal. Bitcoin did survive one longer bear market and it would survive another, drawing relations between peaks and valleys doesn't work out. Real developments are different each time. Is it possible that a bear market ultimately ends Bitcoin as we know it? Of course it is, but that doesn't mean it has to happen.
What the speculative investment into Bitcoins does has very little to do with it.

[jubalix]

In every other scenario bitcoin will survive.

Not in the useable form, no. Once businesses switch to some other currency and most funds flow out of bitcoin, it is not raising again. Sure some people will have it running for a while, but it is not coming back from $10, not anymore. That would mean most investors and businesses completely lost faith and cashed out. After that, only a matter of time until the slowpokes of the world catch the drift.

business don't generally involve themselves with forex, store of value etc, so retail is only the small portion of BTC. Having said that I accept tha something like PeerCoin may take the store of value part away

 

[piramida]

Bitcoin did survive one longer bear market and it would survive another, drawing relations between peaks and valleys doesn't work out.

I am not saying it can't survive bear market, we are in one now afterall and was in a semi-bear market last summer. I'm just saying the total value of investment is now way past the $2 or $10 or $50 per coin, so any prices below 100 would mean a certain doom for bitcoin on the horizon.

[ElectricMucus]

Bitcoin did survive one longer bear market and it would survive another, drawing relations between peaks and valleys doesn't work out.

I am not saying it can't survive bear market, we are in one now afterall and was in a semi-bear market last summer. I'm just saying the total value of investment is now way past the $2 or $10 or $50 per coin, so any prices below 100 would mean a certain doom for bitcoin on the horizon.

Total value of investment eh? You are just parroting the same - not even an argument perhaps a statement over and over.

So let me get this straight: If we go below $100 you are dumping all your coins? Cuz "certain doom" or what?

[Dafar]

If bitcoin crashes to $10 after where it is now then it pretty much means bitcoin is dead, and it might as well go back to $0. Lol at idiots hoping this will happen to pick up cheap coins... do you think BTC will take that much of a dip so all the average joe shmucks can pick up 100 coins easily and become millionaires when it swings back to normal again?

[ElectricMucus]

It happened before and can happen again. Nothing is certain, but your hubris does make me think that it's more likely to plunge deep and hard rather than not. 

[piramida]

Bitcoin did survive one longer bear market and it would survive another, drawing relations between peaks and valleys doesn't work out.

I am not saying it can't survive bear market, we are in one now afterall and was in a semi-bear market last summer. I'm just saying the total value of investment is now way past the $2 or $10 or $50 per coin, so any prices below 100 would mean a certain doom for bitcoin on the horizon.

Total value of investment eh? You are just parroting the same - not even an argument perhaps a statement over and over.

So let me get this straight: If we go below $100 you are dumping all your coins? Cuz "certain doom" or what?

Parotting since you fail to understand. It's actually extremely simple - look at Detroit, that is bitcoin at $10 - still a livable town but without any infrastructure or investment it is doomed, death spiraling, nobody would spend time or money restoring it.

About selling - sure, I have said it more than once - yes, I will open and exchange all cold stored bitcoins for some other crypto if we go below 100, because I would be positive then that bitcoin is doomed. I still think the hitting of 10k per coin is going to happen first, though.

[ElectricMucus]

It's unfathomable that you don't get this after being there in 2011.

[piramida]

It's unfathomable that you don't get this after being there in 2011.

Don't use my line, you are the one here who has been *consistently* wrong since 2011, yet you are brave enough trying to lecture me! You don't understand that retraction of 2011 is from a completely different level. Bitcoin was a hacker playtoy then, there were no serious investments besides some $200 gpus. It retracted 90% then, which would mean a $100 region if we had exactly the same hackertoy thing today.

But we don't, money are invested, money need to work or they are withdrawn, so bitcoin either works or dies, no "going to single digits so slowpokes can buy; then rallying again" - this is not happening, alas. There will be no wave of sudden idiot investors after bitcoin goes to single digits. It's use would be limited to several geeks and tiny amounts, then it dies. You are only born once, going back into proverbial vagina would kill you.  That's why retractions don't go below previous rallies tops, bitcoin needs to grow to stay perspective.

[ElectricMucus]

Yes there are more investments that's why the ATH is at 1200 instead of 30. And the same process can make it go down like that. This process has nothing to do with how big the investments into Bitcoins are but is an inherent property of the market which won't go away.
Oh and dude, I called the breakout at $20 with something like: this seems to be the start of the new bubble. I rarely make any comments about the price, it's just that I am skeptical about the "reasons" the "economy" around bitcoins supposed to be "booming". And I have yet to be proven wrong about that.

Oh and the hackertoy time was before silkroad and the gawker blogpost about it, before bruce wagner and free gpu mining software.
After that it became a libertarian pump & dump scheme and it yet has to evolve out of that.

[Lone Wolf]

CLICK BAIT.  but I still believe btc will drop back to the level where it went parabolic.  somewhere betw $200-400.

[Odalv]

CLICK BAIT.  but I still believe btc will drop back to the level where it went parabolic.  somewhere betw $200-400.

I think, people will want to buy 3-6 times more than @ $1200 ... forgot this low price.

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

[Wekkel]

BEHOLD! Dogma!

Since inception, Bitcoin has had a flawed DNA.  It was dreamed up in a virtual world -- by computer geeks -- but was to be applied in the real world.  Bitcoin is steep in Libertarian and anti-Fed dogma but weak in understanding of how global economics, central banking policies and financial markets function.  The lifeblood of the global capital markets is money – greenbacks -- transactional currency that facilitates commerce.  Virtual currency can create value and efficiency but it needs to be linked to fiscal and monetary policy.  To assume currency can be computer generated, run in a decentralized manner and outside of the central banking system and controls is farcical and economically dangerous.

If you can get around the many typo's, this is quite interesting. [....]

BTC isn't just an innovation in virtual currency, it's an innovation in a stagnant area of financial tech that's been untouched for almost 100 years [....]  a piss poor form of technology.

Thanks for your thought provoking post.

Indeed, think of the possibilities if exchange does not encounter the barriers found in today's financial environment. Times will be very different if money itself is widely available with prices set by the free market. I am thinking about the time of the Colonial scrip, which apparently worked quite OK. As long as authorities who issued the scrip did not overissue, all went fine. In terms of crypto, the limitation in issue is found in the protocols themselves. The danger of overissue lays not with the issuer, but the ability of anyone to start his own altcoin.

Well, that is a lot more transparent than a central issuer of scrip suddenly deciding to overissue, in secret or openly. The free market will put a lid on 'overissue' by too many altcoins.

In case of open source crypto, this may work out just fine.

For traditional banking (the honest version), there is a lot to be conquered in this field. Profits are awaiting for those who dare.

[HeliKopterBen]

Bump.  The deadline for Dr. Bitcorn's $10 coins has arrived.  Looks like he didn't get those cheap coins he was looking for.