Does BTC need to be over $2,000 in 2014 for mining to be profitable?

[Noruka]

Actually from the looks of it, it has to be in the $3000-$4000 range for neptune to ROI.

I could be completelly wrong but if the coin price will be 500 USD and the Difficulty goes to 3 Billions by the time Neptunes is delivered,  i think you will have ROI in +/- 2 months

correct

[1714943232]

1714943232

[1714943232]

1714943232

[1714943232]

1714943232

[1714943232]

1714943232

[1714943232]

1714943232

[1714943232]

1714943232

[chrono030]

Which one?

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/c7d1b8bf04
$500, 1000 or 2000 won't be enough for ROI.

Even the most conservative estimates don't place difficulty at 23 BILLION around may 2014.  There would need to be an exponential increase the hashrate shipped between now and then for that to be the case, which is very unlikely to happen, given what we have seen so far.  With KNC not shipping and hashfast / cointerra gearing up, we should know where we will wind up difficulty wise toward the end of february.  See D&T's analysis here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

[Lauda]

Even the most conservative estimates don't place difficulty at 23 BILLION around may 2014.  There would need to be an exponential increase the hashrate shipped between now and then for that to be the case, which is very unlikely to happen, given what we have seen so far.  With KNC not shipping and hashfast / cointerra gearing up, we should know where we will wind up difficulty wise toward the end of february.  See D&T's analysis here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0

I don't know who put a 100% growth though.

[hieroglyph]

It would be jaw dropping to see the price hit 2,000 in a few months  I'm kind of on the fence right now but I guess If I had to guess I'd agree triple digits could be gone soon enough.

[rodri91]

Why the 101% increase?

[svetbg]

According Bank of America the current actual price of 1 BTC is around $1300.
You can check the analysis here: http://cryptome.org/2013/12/boa-bitcoin.pdf

[squish]

Can anyone new make a profit mining in 2014?

I looked up the specs on the new 3,000 GH/s Neptune from KncMiner and thought that it would make a great purchase.  But when you try to work out the ROI, the numbers don't work unless BTC gets somewhere close to $2,000, you get the unit next week or you have solar panels.

In my opinion, you really should be comparing the number of bitcoins you can buy with cash now with the number of bitcoins the Neptune will mine.

e.g.
- today, buy 15 bitcoins for $13,000.  Wait a year.  You have 15 bitcoins.
- today, buy a neptune for $13,000 or 15 bitcoins.  Wait a year.  You have whatever bitcoins it mined.

Therefore you make a "mining profit" if the number of bitcoins you mine is greater than the number you could buy now.

To put that another way, if you could have bought 15 bitcoins now for $13,000 but instead you buy a neptune and it mines only 5 bitcoins, but the exchange rate has tripled, you may think you've broken even but really from a mining perspective you lost 10 bitcoins.

Thus, in reference to the subject line, I don't think BTC needs to be any particular value in 2014 to determine if mining will be profitable or not.  The value of BTC does on the other hand determine whether holding bitcoin (and buying a miner is like buying bitcoin in the future) will be profitable.

[DTYJ]

I doubt It will be that much profitable. For instance, IF bitcoin were to worth 2k in 2014 there will definitely be a HIGH SURGE rise of the difficulty as everyone will be going crazy about it, So yea .. 

[coins101]

Can anyone new make a profit mining in 2014?

I looked up the specs on the new 3,000 GH/s Neptune from KncMiner and thought that it would make a great purchase.  But when you try to work out the ROI, the numbers don't work unless BTC gets somewhere close to $2,000, you get the unit next week or you have solar panels.

In my opinion, you really should be comparing the number of bitcoins you can buy with cash now with the number of bitcoins the Neptune will mine.

e.g.
- today, buy 15 bitcoins for $13,000.  Wait a year.  You have 15 bitcoins.
- today, buy a neptune for $13,000 or 15 bitcoins.  Wait a year.  You have whatever bitcoins it mined.

Therefore you make a "mining profit" if the number of bitcoins you mine is greater than the number you could buy now.

To put that another way, if you could have bought 15 bitcoins now for $13,000 but instead you buy a neptune and it mines only 5 bitcoins, but the exchange rate has tripled, you may think you've broken even but really from a mining perspective you lost 10 bitcoins.

Thus, in reference to the subject line, I don't think BTC needs to be any particular value in 2014 to determine if mining will be profitable or not.  The value of BTC does on the other hand determine whether holding bitcoin (and buying a miner is like buying bitcoin in the future) will be profitable.

It can't all be related to bitcoin or fiat, as there are also costs of production - mainly power supply, facilities, and climate control.

[tacotime]

My thoughts are: 2014 will be the year we see Bitcoin and Bitcoin hardware start to tumble again as the price doesn't rise enough to warrant the sale of hardware, and the hardware market finally becomes competitive with miners in stock everywhere.  This is exactly what happened post-boom in 2011, and I don't it'll play out differently this time.  In the meantime, PPC, with its wacky reward algorithm, and LTC, with ASICs finally coming, will both see rises in value against BTC.

[An amorous cow-herder]

According Bank of America the current actual price of 1 BTC is around $1300.
You can check the analysis here: http://cryptome.org/2013/12/boa-bitcoin.pdf

Its not current actual value. That analysis is assuming Bitcoin actually matures and gets used (like 10% of online payments).

[cowandtea]

So is it real to BTC go to 5000$ if difficulty skyrockets?

So far, the price doesn't correlate too much with the price.

[nexus99]

Most seem to feel that price follows difficulty, so when all those Neptunes start hashing, difficulty will be thru the roof. Of course news about new laws, etc. does effect the price.

Scarcity will drive the value of BTC. As fewer people have more and more of the BTC they will be able to manipulate its price by selling/holding. Since BTC mining is now controlled by the people that can invest in price-hiked ASIC miners those people will decide what the price will be.

[asso]

I think will make another jump from 1 k to 10k

[dlasher]

If history is any indication, people keep buying hardware until the positive ROI is roughly 9 months on hardware. 

With $BTC-USD $788 and Cointerra 2TH box pricing ($6k per 2TH) that means the network needs to be close to 30 Petahash before it levels out, at which point the 2TH box makes about 1BTC per month... anything less than about a 9 month ROI, and people keep buying, which keeps driving diff up.

[nodroids]

Some very useful insight in here. As a trader of all my family's fiat straight into BTC, this stuff is important, even as a non miner. Mining has always seemed insane to me. Back in 2012, even pre-ordering ASICs, it seemed obvious that I should just buy Bitcoin at $11... And people have made a killing mining, so I still don't know that I understand.

But ya, it seemed to my mining ignorant ass that you can't by a coninterra rig and be profitable unless BTC is above $1350 in early March. I don't doubt BTC will be above that by late March, partially b/c the small and medium miners will hold out as long as they can below that... and still, why not buy BTC while you can in tripple digits?!

[drewster]

Let me guess. You all pay different amounts for electricity.

Let's throw around more numbers!

1.21 jigawatts.

Heh -- Nice one!