gbianchi (OP)
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Activity: 3066
Merit: 2595
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January 03, 2014, 10:20:03 AM
Last edit: January 03, 2014, 12:05:57 PM by gbianchi |
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2014 first data: ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 277997 31/12/2013 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22441758 0.00% 0.00% 90.4651% 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404280 38.36% 8.87% 1.6297% 17.09% 0.00404 38.36% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 847019 82.64% 32.00% 3.4144% 35.81% 162.81388 74.23% 11.96% 0.0013% 0.00000
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 668303 69.87% 10.59% 2.6940% 28.25% 13963.94830 76.12% 15.85% 0.1145% 0.00000
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 226412 72.06% 10.01% 0.9127% 9.57% 108218.11728 76.81% 12.19% 0.8872% 0.00000
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95003 69.19% 9.86% 0.3830% 4.02% 233059.78513 70.93% 10.34% 1.9108% 0.00000
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 29992 72.25% 8.98% 0.1209% 1.27% 233938.55174 74.16% 8.96% 1.9180% 0.00000
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24236 70.10% 9.28% 0.0977% 1.02% 403972.84523 71.55% 9.47% 3.3120% 0.00000
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49906 92.97% 74.92% 0.2012% 2.11% 2321854.58095 94.60% 79.96% 19.0358% 0.00000
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4508 71.61% 16.99% 0.0182% 0.19% 269043.68708 71.13% 15.48% 2.2058% 0.00000
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5439 82.37% 8.59% 0.0219% 0.23% 513632.90805 83.38% 8.67% 4.2110% 0.00000
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7588 69.39% 8.76% 0.0306% 0.32% 1707653.00812 70.44% 9.33% 14.0003% 0.00000
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1541 71.84% 6.68% 0.0062% 0.07% 1181905.22759 74.39% 6.94% 9.6899% 0.00000
> 1000 BTC 1096 67.88% 11.04% 0.0044% 0.05% 5209868.29249 70.74% 6.61% 42.7134% 0.00000
Totale Attivi 2365323 69.79% 19.20% 9.5349% 100.00% 12197273.76960 76.29% 21.54% 100.0000% 0.00000
Totale Generale 24807081 6.65% 1.83% 100.0000% 12197273.76960 76.29% 21.54% 100.0000% 0.00000
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block# 278202 01/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22484473 0.00% 0.00% 90.4624% 42715 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404283 38.36% 8.87% 1.6266% 17.05% 3 0.00404 38.36% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 847817 82.63% 31.97% 3.4110% 35.76% 798 163.03854 74.22% 11.95% 0.0013% 0.22467
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 670968 69.87% 10.54% 2.6995% 28.30% 2665 14038.53135 76.04% 15.76% 0.1150% 74.58306
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 227759 71.93% 9.95% 0.9163% 9.61% 1347 108723.69698 76.66% 12.13% 0.8910% 505.57969
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95113 69.09% 9.85% 0.3827% 4.01% 110 233340.10817 70.86% 10.33% 1.9122% 280.32304
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30192 72.24% 8.91% 0.1215% 1.27% 200 235463.04806 74.17% 8.89% 1.9296% 1524.49633
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24337 70.10% 9.23% 0.0979% 1.03% 101 405654.08188 71.51% 9.43% 3.3244% 1681.23665
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49954 92.91% 74.85% 0.2010% 2.11% 48 2323229.78711 94.56% 79.91% 19.0391% 1375.20616
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4505 71.74% 16.98% 0.0181% 0.19% -3 268891.55012 71.27% 15.47% 2.2036% -152.13695
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5427 82.40% 8.61% 0.0218% 0.23% -12 512617.40666 83.40% 8.69% 4.2010% -1015.50140
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7567 69.37% 8.79% 0.0304% 0.32% -21 1701775.49886 70.42% 9.36% 13.9462% -5877.50926
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1537 72.02% 6.70% 0.0062% 0.06% -4 1178115.25713 74.62% 6.96% 9.6548% -3789.97046
> 1000 BTC 1115 66.37% 10.85% 0.0045% 0.05% 19 5220386.75507 70.00% 6.60% 42.7816% 10518.46258
Totale Attivi 2370574 69.78% 19.15% 9.5376% 100.00% 5251 12202398.76370 75.99% 21.53% 100.0000% 5124.99410
Totale Generale 24855047 6.65% 1.83% 100.0000% 47966 12202398.76370 75.99% 21.53% 100.0000% 5124.99410
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block# 278336 02/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22548281 0.00% 0.00% 90.4712% 63808 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404294 38.36% 8.86% 1.6222% 17.02% 11 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 849233 82.56% 31.91% 3.4074% 35.76% 1416 164.01134 73.91% 11.87% 0.0013% 0.97280
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 670296 70.09% 10.55% 2.6895% 28.22% -672 14074.73463 76.17% 15.72% 0.1153% 36.20327
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 230397 71.69% 9.83% 0.9244% 9.70% 2638 109662.76743 76.43% 12.03% 0.8985% 939.07046
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95858 68.92% 9.77% 0.3846% 4.04% 745 235184.94718 70.67% 10.24% 1.9268% 1844.83901
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30365 71.94% 8.86% 0.1218% 1.28% 173 236584.64221 73.88% 8.85% 1.9383% 1121.59415
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24368 69.95% 9.22% 0.0978% 1.03% 31 406342.63442 71.36% 9.41% 3.3291% 688.55253
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49941 92.88% 74.83% 0.2004% 2.10% -13 2322187.02708 94.54% 79.91% 19.0254% -1042.76003
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4498 71.70% 16.99% 0.0180% 0.19% -7 268495.95315 71.24% 15.47% 2.1997% -395.59698
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5419 82.45% 8.56% 0.0217% 0.23% -8 511864.48125 83.45% 8.64% 4.1936% -752.92540
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7559 69.23% 8.80% 0.0303% 0.32% -8 1700460.60661 70.31% 9.37% 13.9316% -1314.89225
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1534 71.97% 6.71% 0.0062% 0.06% -3 1176161.60717 74.56% 6.97% 9.6361% -1953.64996
> 1000 BTC 1119 66.31% 10.81% 0.0045% 0.05% 4 5224565.35163 70.04% 6.59% 42.8041% 4178.59656
Totale Attivi 2374881 69.79% 19.12% 9.5288% 100.00% 4307 12205748.76786 75.96% 21.51% 100.0000% 3350.00416
Totale Generale 24923162 6.65% 1.82% 100.0000% 68115 12205748.76786 75.96% 21.51% 100.0000% 3350.00416
num : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act : percentage of the number of addresses with zero balance (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table
donations : 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN
gbianchi bitcointalk.org bitcoin-italia.org
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gbianchi (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3066
Merit: 2595
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January 04, 2014, 11:02:11 AM |
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---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 277997 31/12/2013 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22441758 0.00% 0.00% 90.4651% 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404280 38.36% 8.87% 1.6297% 17.09% 0.00404 38.36% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 847019 82.64% 32.00% 3.4144% 35.81% 162.81388 74.23% 11.96% 0.0013% 0.00000
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 668303 69.87% 10.59% 2.6940% 28.25% 13963.94830 76.12% 15.85% 0.1145% 0.00000
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 226412 72.06% 10.01% 0.9127% 9.57% 108218.11728 76.81% 12.19% 0.8872% 0.00000
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95003 69.19% 9.86% 0.3830% 4.02% 233059.78513 70.93% 10.34% 1.9108% 0.00000
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 29992 72.25% 8.98% 0.1209% 1.27% 233938.55174 74.16% 8.96% 1.9180% 0.00000
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24236 70.10% 9.28% 0.0977% 1.02% 403972.84523 71.55% 9.47% 3.3120% 0.00000
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49906 92.97% 74.92% 0.2012% 2.11% 2321854.58095 94.60% 79.96% 19.0358% 0.00000
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4508 71.61% 16.99% 0.0182% 0.19% 269043.68708 71.13% 15.48% 2.2058% 0.00000
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5439 82.37% 8.59% 0.0219% 0.23% 513632.90805 83.38% 8.67% 4.2110% 0.00000
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7588 69.39% 8.76% 0.0306% 0.32% 1707653.00812 70.44% 9.33% 14.0003% 0.00000
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1541 71.84% 6.68% 0.0062% 0.07% 1181905.22759 74.39% 6.94% 9.6899% 0.00000
> 1000 BTC 1096 67.88% 11.04% 0.0044% 0.05% 5209868.29249 70.74% 6.61% 42.7134% 0.00000
Totale Attivi 2365323 69.79% 19.20% 9.5349% 100.00% 12197273.76960 76.29% 21.54% 100.0000% 0.00000
Totale Generale 24807081 6.65% 1.83% 100.0000% 12197273.76960 76.29% 21.54% 100.0000% 0.00000
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block# 278202 01/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22484473 0.00% 0.00% 90.4624% 42715 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404283 38.36% 8.87% 1.6266% 17.05% 3 0.00404 38.36% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 847817 82.63% 31.97% 3.4110% 35.76% 798 163.03854 74.22% 11.95% 0.0013% 0.22467
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 670968 69.87% 10.54% 2.6995% 28.30% 2665 14038.53135 76.04% 15.76% 0.1150% 74.58306
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 227759 71.93% 9.95% 0.9163% 9.61% 1347 108723.69698 76.66% 12.13% 0.8910% 505.57969
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95113 69.09% 9.85% 0.3827% 4.01% 110 233340.10817 70.86% 10.33% 1.9122% 280.32304
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30192 72.24% 8.91% 0.1215% 1.27% 200 235463.04806 74.17% 8.89% 1.9296% 1524.49633
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24337 70.10% 9.23% 0.0979% 1.03% 101 405654.08188 71.51% 9.43% 3.3244% 1681.23665
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49954 92.91% 74.85% 0.2010% 2.11% 48 2323229.78711 94.56% 79.91% 19.0391% 1375.20616
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4505 71.74% 16.98% 0.0181% 0.19% -3 268891.55012 71.27% 15.47% 2.2036% -152.13695
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5427 82.40% 8.61% 0.0218% 0.23% -12 512617.40666 83.40% 8.69% 4.2010% -1015.50140
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7567 69.37% 8.79% 0.0304% 0.32% -21 1701775.49886 70.42% 9.36% 13.9462% -5877.50926
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1537 72.02% 6.70% 0.0062% 0.06% -4 1178115.25713 74.62% 6.96% 9.6548% -3789.97046
> 1000 BTC 1115 66.37% 10.85% 0.0045% 0.05% 19 5220386.75507 70.00% 6.60% 42.7816% 10518.46258
Totale Attivi 2370574 69.78% 19.15% 9.5376% 100.00% 5251 12202398.76370 75.99% 21.53% 100.0000% 5124.99410
Totale Generale 24855047 6.65% 1.83% 100.0000% 47966 12202398.76370 75.99% 21.53% 100.0000% 5124.99410
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block# 278336 02/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22548281 0.00% 0.00% 90.4712% 63808 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404294 38.36% 8.86% 1.6222% 17.02% 11 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 849233 82.56% 31.91% 3.4074% 35.76% 1416 164.01134 73.91% 11.87% 0.0013% 0.97280
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 670296 70.09% 10.55% 2.6895% 28.22% -672 14074.73463 76.17% 15.72% 0.1153% 36.20327
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 230397 71.69% 9.83% 0.9244% 9.70% 2638 109662.76743 76.43% 12.03% 0.8985% 939.07046
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95858 68.92% 9.77% 0.3846% 4.04% 745 235184.94718 70.67% 10.24% 1.9268% 1844.83901
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30365 71.94% 8.86% 0.1218% 1.28% 173 236584.64221 73.88% 8.85% 1.9383% 1121.59415
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24368 69.95% 9.22% 0.0978% 1.03% 31 406342.63442 71.36% 9.41% 3.3291% 688.55253
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49941 92.88% 74.83% 0.2004% 2.10% -13 2322187.02708 94.54% 79.91% 19.0254% -1042.76003
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4498 71.70% 16.99% 0.0180% 0.19% -7 268495.95315 71.24% 15.47% 2.1997% -395.59698
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5419 82.45% 8.56% 0.0217% 0.23% -8 511864.48125 83.45% 8.64% 4.1936% -752.92540
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7559 69.23% 8.80% 0.0303% 0.32% -8 1700460.60661 70.31% 9.37% 13.9316% -1314.89225
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1534 71.97% 6.71% 0.0062% 0.06% -3 1176161.60717 74.56% 6.97% 9.6361% -1953.64996
> 1000 BTC 1119 66.31% 10.81% 0.0045% 0.05% 4 5224565.35163 70.04% 6.59% 42.8041% 4178.59656
Totale Attivi 2374881 69.79% 19.12% 9.5288% 100.00% 4307 12205748.76786 75.96% 21.51% 100.0000% 3350.00416
Totale Generale 24923162 6.65% 1.82% 100.0000% 68115 12205748.76786 75.96% 21.51% 100.0000% 3350.00416
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block# 278497 03/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22619823 0.00% 0.00% 90.4812% 71542 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404312 38.36% 8.86% 1.6173% 16.99% 18 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 851118 82.54% 31.84% 3.4045% 35.77% 1885 164.72642 73.90% 11.82% 0.0013% 0.71508
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 672654 70.09% 10.51% 2.6907% 28.27% 2358 14138.44987 76.11% 15.65% 0.1158% 63.71524
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 230834 71.71% 9.81% 0.9234% 9.70% 437 109660.78547 76.50% 12.02% 0.8981% -1.98196
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95667 69.02% 9.78% 0.3827% 4.02% -191 234978.16300 70.77% 10.24% 1.9245% -206.78418
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30576 72.45% 8.79% 0.1223% 1.28% 211 238570.03577 74.42% 8.77% 1.9539% 1985.39356
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24397 69.95% 9.21% 0.0976% 1.03% 29 406538.83957 71.34% 9.40% 3.3296% 196.20515
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49935 92.90% 74.84% 0.1997% 2.10% -6 2321757.94310 94.56% 79.92% 19.0156% -429.08398
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4526 71.74% 16.88% 0.0181% 0.19% 28 270012.51618 71.27% 15.38% 2.2114% 1516.56303
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5437 82.55% 8.52% 0.0217% 0.23% 18 513355.25715 83.54% 8.60% 4.2045% 1490.77590
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7550 69.44% 8.81% 0.0302% 0.32% -9 1696510.13982 70.73% 9.39% 13.8947% -3950.46679
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1533 71.75% 6.72% 0.0061% 0.06% -1 1175737.73593 74.23% 6.98% 9.6295% -423.87124
> 1000 BTC 1106 67.81% 10.94% 0.0044% 0.05% -13 5228349.16611 70.97% 6.59% 42.8210% 3783.81449
Totale Attivi 2379645 69.80% 19.08% 9.5188% 100.00% 4764 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
Totale Generale 24999468 6.64% 1.82% 100.0000% 76306 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
num : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act : percentage of the number of addresses with zero balance (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table
donations : 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN
gbianchi bitcointalk.org bitcoin-italia.org
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augustocroppo
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Activity: 756
Merit: 503
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January 04, 2014, 12:48:26 PM
Last edit: January 04, 2014, 01:19:32 PM by Augusto Croppo |
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An analysis without take in consideration some fundamental principles of finances and economics applied to a medium of exchange. Fail. OP, start again here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demandIn microeconomics, supply and demand is an economic model of price determination in a market. It concludes that in a competitive market, the unit price for a particular good will vary until it settles at a point where the quantity demanded by consumers (at current price) will equal the quantity supplied by producers (at current price), resulting in an economic equilibrium for price and quantity.
The four basic laws of supply and demand are:
If demand increases and supply remains unchanged, a shortage occurs, leading to a higher equilibrium price.
If demand decreases and supply remains unchanged, a surplus occurs, leading to a lower equilibrium price.
If demand remains unchanged and supply increases, a surplus occurs, leading to a lower equilibrium price.
If demand remains unchanged and supply decreases, a shortage occurs, leading to a higher equilibrium price. OBS: By the way, your data set do not have enough information to achieve any accurate result. You need more sources of data just to start with the assumptions. You are relying your whole theory only on blockchain.info data. |
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gbianchi (OP)
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Activity: 3066
Merit: 2595
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January 04, 2014, 01:43:05 PM |
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OBS: By the way, your data set do not have enough information to achieve any accurate result.
Prove it. |
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augustocroppo
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Activity: 756
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January 04, 2014, 01:59:00 PM |
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OBS: By the way, your data set do not have enough information to achieve any accurate result.
Prove it. Nope, that is up to you convince everyone except yourself that your theory is valid. |
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gbianchi (OP)
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Activity: 3066
Merit: 2595
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January 04, 2014, 02:04:55 PM |
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OBS: By the way, your data set do not have enough information to achieve any accurate result.
Prove it. Nope, that is up to you convince everyone except yourself that your theory is valid. It is what im am tryng to do, with number and some math, not simply speaking. |
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SlipperySlope
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January 04, 2014, 02:51:14 PM |
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Great analysis!
I suppose that the exponential growth of bitcoin prices must eventually stop, and I have modeled prices according to a logistic model. Now I wondering about what happens to address growth when inevitably price growth slows down.
Any thoughts about this?
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Arriemoller
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Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
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January 04, 2014, 11:42:33 PM |
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OBS: By the way, your data set do not have enough information to achieve any accurate result.
Prove it. Nope, that is up to you convince everyone except yourself that your theory is valid. Nope, each person have to prove his own statement. Simply saying "no" is just obstructing. |
Demokrati: Två vargar och ett lamm röstar om lunchmenyn. Democracy: Two wolfes and a lamb votes about the lunch menu.
Frihet: Ett väl beväpnat lamm opponerar sig mot omröstningen. Freedom: A well armed lamb opposes the outcome.
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luv2drnkbr
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January 05, 2014, 01:02:36 AM |
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OBS: By the way, your data set do not have enough information to achieve any accurate result.
Prove it. Nope, that is up to you convince everyone except yourself that your theory is valid. Nope, each person have to prove his own statement. Simply saying "no" is just obstructing. Incorrect. Pointing out that a statement is not adequetly defended is not something which itself needs backing. If you say "unicorns exist", a perfectly valid response is "prove it". It's not on me to prove they don't. Similarly, gbianchi's claims are reversed engineered from the data, so of course they fit. In order to show the validity of the equation and the other claims, he would need to show they work with new data. Calling BS is a perfectly valid response. |
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Darkcoins
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January 05, 2014, 01:07:36 AM |
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very interesting and good work!  |
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Arriemoller
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Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
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January 05, 2014, 02:24:42 AM |
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OBS: By the way, your data set do not have enough information to achieve any accurate result.
Prove it. Nope, that is up to you convince everyone except yourself that your theory is valid. Nope, each person have to prove his own statement. Simply saying "no" is just obstructing. Incorrect. Pointing out that a statement is not adequetly defended is not something which itself needs backing. If you say "unicorns exist", a perfectly valid response is "prove it". It's not on me to prove they don't. Similarly, gbianchi's claims are reversed engineered from the data, so of course they fit. In order to show the validity of the equation and the other claims, he would need to show they work with new data. Calling BS is a perfectly valid response. Nope, If someone says "unicorns exist" and then "proves" it with some kind of argument, you can not just say that it's BS, you have to point out the errors of the argument. In this case he would have to explain why he doesn't think the data is sufficient. |
Demokrati: Två vargar och ett lamm röstar om lunchmenyn. Democracy: Two wolfes and a lamb votes about the lunch menu.
Frihet: Ett väl beväpnat lamm opponerar sig mot omröstningen. Freedom: A well armed lamb opposes the outcome.
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drewster
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Activity: 74
Merit: 10
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January 05, 2014, 02:49:54 AM |
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I just see a bunch of numbers and no explanations.
He explained every step. |
BTC: 1CvoqpVjmy7ByCqqkxYqGXuB17wrgR2VKf
"The way I see it, every life is a pile of good things and bad things. Hey. The good things don't always soften the bad things, but vice-versa, the bad things don't necessarily spoil the good things and make them unimportant."
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drewster
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Activity: 74
Merit: 10
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January 05, 2014, 03:00:10 AM |
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2014 first data:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 278497 03/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22619823 0.00% 0.00% 90.4812% 71542 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404312 38.36% 8.86% 1.6173% 16.99% 18 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 851118 82.54% 31.84% 3.4045% 35.77% 1885 164.72642 73.90% 11.82% 0.0013% 0.71508
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 672654 70.09% 10.51% 2.6907% 28.27% 2358 14138.44987 76.11% 15.65% 0.1158% 63.71524
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 230834 71.71% 9.81% 0.9234% 9.70% 437 109660.78547 76.50% 12.02% 0.8981% -1.98196
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95667 69.02% 9.78% 0.3827% 4.02% -191 234978.16300 70.77% 10.24% 1.9245% -206.78418
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30576 72.45% 8.79% 0.1223% 1.28% 211 238570.03577 74.42% 8.77% 1.9539% 1985.39356
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24397 69.95% 9.21% 0.0976% 1.03% 29 406538.83957 71.34% 9.40% 3.3296% 196.20515
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49935 92.90% 74.84% 0.1997% 2.10% -6 2321757.94310 94.56% 79.92% 19.0156% -429.08398
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4526 71.74% 16.88% 0.0181% 0.19% 28 270012.51618 71.27% 15.38% 2.2114% 1516.56303
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5437 82.55% 8.52% 0.0217% 0.23% 18 513355.25715 83.54% 8.60% 4.2045% 1490.77590
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7550 69.44% 8.81% 0.0302% 0.32% -9 1696510.13982 70.73% 9.39% 13.8947% -3950.46679
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1533 71.75% 6.72% 0.0061% 0.06% -1 1175737.73593 74.23% 6.98% 9.6295% -423.87124
> 1000 BTC 1106 67.81% 10.94% 0.0044% 0.05% -13 5228349.16611 70.97% 6.59% 42.8210% 3783.81449
Totale Attivi 2379645 69.80% 19.08% 9.5188% 100.00% 4764 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
Totale Generale 24999468 6.64% 1.82% 100.0000% 76306 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
gbianchi, Okay, I am following what you did, but I want to make sure I am calculating your final formula properly. Using the data from January 3rd, 2014, above, I have: PRICE = (I^2.26) / (e^32) I am using I = 24999468, correct? Assuming that is right, I have: PRICE = (24999468 ^ 2.26) / (7.8963 x 10^13) = 663.59 ... this is rounding the result, as well as using the rounded (I^2.26), rather than I^2.25776.... Am I applying this correctly? Thanks! |
BTC: 1CvoqpVjmy7ByCqqkxYqGXuB17wrgR2VKf
"The way I see it, every life is a pile of good things and bad things. Hey. The good things don't always soften the bad things, but vice-versa, the bad things don't necessarily spoil the good things and make them unimportant."
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gbianchi (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 3066
Merit: 2595
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January 05, 2014, 10:39:28 AM
Last edit: January 05, 2014, 10:57:02 AM by gbianchi |
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2014 first data:
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block# 278497 03/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22619823 0.00% 0.00% 90.4812% 71542 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404312 38.36% 8.86% 1.6173% 16.99% 18 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 851118 82.54% 31.84% 3.4045% 35.77% 1885 164.72642 73.90% 11.82% 0.0013% 0.71508
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 672654 70.09% 10.51% 2.6907% 28.27% 2358 14138.44987 76.11% 15.65% 0.1158% 63.71524
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 230834 71.71% 9.81% 0.9234% 9.70% 437 109660.78547 76.50% 12.02% 0.8981% -1.98196
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95667 69.02% 9.78% 0.3827% 4.02% -191 234978.16300 70.77% 10.24% 1.9245% -206.78418
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30576 72.45% 8.79% 0.1223% 1.28% 211 238570.03577 74.42% 8.77% 1.9539% 1985.39356
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24397 69.95% 9.21% 0.0976% 1.03% 29 406538.83957 71.34% 9.40% 3.3296% 196.20515
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49935 92.90% 74.84% 0.1997% 2.10% -6 2321757.94310 94.56% 79.92% 19.0156% -429.08398
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4526 71.74% 16.88% 0.0181% 0.19% 28 270012.51618 71.27% 15.38% 2.2114% 1516.56303
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5437 82.55% 8.52% 0.0217% 0.23% 18 513355.25715 83.54% 8.60% 4.2045% 1490.77590
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7550 69.44% 8.81% 0.0302% 0.32% -9 1696510.13982 70.73% 9.39% 13.8947% -3950.46679
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1533 71.75% 6.72% 0.0061% 0.06% -1 1175737.73593 74.23% 6.98% 9.6295% -423.87124
> 1000 BTC 1106 67.81% 10.94% 0.0044% 0.05% -13 5228349.16611 70.97% 6.59% 42.8210% 3783.81449
Totale Attivi 2379645 69.80% 19.08% 9.5188% 100.00% 4764 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
Totale Generale 24999468 6.64% 1.82% 100.0000% 76306 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
gbianchi, Okay, I am following what you did, but I want to make sure I am calculating your final formula properly. Using the data from January 3rd, 2014, above, I have: PRICE = (I^2.26) / (e^32) I am using I = 24999468, correct? Assuming that is right, I have: PRICE = (24999468 ^ 2.26) / (7.8963 x 10^13) = 663.59 ... this is rounding the result, as well as using the rounded (I^2.26), rather than I^2.25776.... Am I applying this correctly? Thanks! correct ! and the non-approximated $pr= ($cnt ** 2.25776380522923)/exp(31.8462990266051); 744.917852440036 |
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gbianchi (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3066
Merit: 2595
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January 05, 2014, 11:21:29 AM |
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new data ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block# 277997 31/12/2013 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22441758 0.00% 0.00% 90.4651% 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404280 38.36% 8.87% 1.6297% 17.09% 0.00404 38.36% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 847019 82.64% 32.00% 3.4144% 35.81% 162.81388 74.23% 11.96% 0.0013% 0.00000
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 668303 69.87% 10.59% 2.6940% 28.25% 13963.94830 76.12% 15.85% 0.1145% 0.00000
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 226412 72.06% 10.01% 0.9127% 9.57% 108218.11728 76.81% 12.19% 0.8872% 0.00000
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95003 69.19% 9.86% 0.3830% 4.02% 233059.78513 70.93% 10.34% 1.9108% 0.00000
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 29992 72.25% 8.98% 0.1209% 1.27% 233938.55174 74.16% 8.96% 1.9180% 0.00000
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24236 70.10% 9.28% 0.0977% 1.02% 403972.84523 71.55% 9.47% 3.3120% 0.00000
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49906 92.97% 74.92% 0.2012% 2.11% 2321854.58095 94.60% 79.96% 19.0358% 0.00000
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4508 71.61% 16.99% 0.0182% 0.19% 269043.68708 71.13% 15.48% 2.2058% 0.00000
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5439 82.37% 8.59% 0.0219% 0.23% 513632.90805 83.38% 8.67% 4.2110% 0.00000
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7588 69.39% 8.76% 0.0306% 0.32% 1707653.00812 70.44% 9.33% 14.0003% 0.00000
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1541 71.84% 6.68% 0.0062% 0.07% 1181905.22759 74.39% 6.94% 9.6899% 0.00000
> 1000 BTC 1096 67.88% 11.04% 0.0044% 0.05% 5209868.29249 70.74% 6.61% 42.7134% 0.00000
Totale Attivi 2365323 69.79% 19.20% 9.5349% 100.00% 12197273.76960 76.29% 21.54% 100.0000% 0.00000
Totale Generale 24807081 6.65% 1.83% 100.0000% 12197273.76960 76.29% 21.54% 100.0000% 0.00000
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block# 278202 01/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22484473 0.00% 0.00% 90.4624% 42715 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404283 38.36% 8.87% 1.6266% 17.05% 3 0.00404 38.36% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 847817 82.63% 31.97% 3.4110% 35.76% 798 163.03854 74.22% 11.95% 0.0013% 0.22467
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 670968 69.87% 10.54% 2.6995% 28.30% 2665 14038.53135 76.04% 15.76% 0.1150% 74.58306
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 227759 71.93% 9.95% 0.9163% 9.61% 1347 108723.69698 76.66% 12.13% 0.8910% 505.57969
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95113 69.09% 9.85% 0.3827% 4.01% 110 233340.10817 70.86% 10.33% 1.9122% 280.32304
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30192 72.24% 8.91% 0.1215% 1.27% 200 235463.04806 74.17% 8.89% 1.9296% 1524.49633
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24337 70.10% 9.23% 0.0979% 1.03% 101 405654.08188 71.51% 9.43% 3.3244% 1681.23665
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49954 92.91% 74.85% 0.2010% 2.11% 48 2323229.78711 94.56% 79.91% 19.0391% 1375.20616
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4505 71.74% 16.98% 0.0181% 0.19% -3 268891.55012 71.27% 15.47% 2.2036% -152.13695
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5427 82.40% 8.61% 0.0218% 0.23% -12 512617.40666 83.40% 8.69% 4.2010% -1015.50140
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7567 69.37% 8.79% 0.0304% 0.32% -21 1701775.49886 70.42% 9.36% 13.9462% -5877.50926
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1537 72.02% 6.70% 0.0062% 0.06% -4 1178115.25713 74.62% 6.96% 9.6548% -3789.97046
> 1000 BTC 1115 66.37% 10.85% 0.0045% 0.05% 19 5220386.75507 70.00% 6.60% 42.7816% 10518.46258
Totale Attivi 2370574 69.78% 19.15% 9.5376% 100.00% 5251 12202398.76370 75.99% 21.53% 100.0000% 5124.99410
Totale Generale 24855047 6.65% 1.83% 100.0000% 47966 12202398.76370 75.99% 21.53% 100.0000% 5124.99410
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block# 278336 02/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22548281 0.00% 0.00% 90.4712% 63808 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404294 38.36% 8.86% 1.6222% 17.02% 11 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 849233 82.56% 31.91% 3.4074% 35.76% 1416 164.01134 73.91% 11.87% 0.0013% 0.97280
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 670296 70.09% 10.55% 2.6895% 28.22% -672 14074.73463 76.17% 15.72% 0.1153% 36.20327
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 230397 71.69% 9.83% 0.9244% 9.70% 2638 109662.76743 76.43% 12.03% 0.8985% 939.07046
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95858 68.92% 9.77% 0.3846% 4.04% 745 235184.94718 70.67% 10.24% 1.9268% 1844.83901
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30365 71.94% 8.86% 0.1218% 1.28% 173 236584.64221 73.88% 8.85% 1.9383% 1121.59415
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24368 69.95% 9.22% 0.0978% 1.03% 31 406342.63442 71.36% 9.41% 3.3291% 688.55253
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49941 92.88% 74.83% 0.2004% 2.10% -13 2322187.02708 94.54% 79.91% 19.0254% -1042.76003
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4498 71.70% 16.99% 0.0180% 0.19% -7 268495.95315 71.24% 15.47% 2.1997% -395.59698
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5419 82.45% 8.56% 0.0217% 0.23% -8 511864.48125 83.45% 8.64% 4.1936% -752.92540
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7559 69.23% 8.80% 0.0303% 0.32% -8 1700460.60661 70.31% 9.37% 13.9316% -1314.89225
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1534 71.97% 6.71% 0.0062% 0.06% -3 1176161.60717 74.56% 6.97% 9.6361% -1953.64996
> 1000 BTC 1119 66.31% 10.81% 0.0045% 0.05% 4 5224565.35163 70.04% 6.59% 42.8041% 4178.59656
Totale Attivi 2374881 69.79% 19.12% 9.5288% 100.00% 4307 12205748.76786 75.96% 21.51% 100.0000% 3350.00416
Totale Generale 24923162 6.65% 1.82% 100.0000% 68115 12205748.76786 75.96% 21.51% 100.0000% 3350.00416
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block# 278497 03/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22619823 0.00% 0.00% 90.4812% 71542 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404312 38.36% 8.86% 1.6173% 16.99% 18 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 851118 82.54% 31.84% 3.4045% 35.77% 1885 164.72642 73.90% 11.82% 0.0013% 0.71508
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 672654 70.09% 10.51% 2.6907% 28.27% 2358 14138.44987 76.11% 15.65% 0.1158% 63.71524
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 230834 71.71% 9.81% 0.9234% 9.70% 437 109660.78547 76.50% 12.02% 0.8981% -1.98196
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95667 69.02% 9.78% 0.3827% 4.02% -191 234978.16300 70.77% 10.24% 1.9245% -206.78418
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30576 72.45% 8.79% 0.1223% 1.28% 211 238570.03577 74.42% 8.77% 1.9539% 1985.39356
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24397 69.95% 9.21% 0.0976% 1.03% 29 406538.83957 71.34% 9.40% 3.3296% 196.20515
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49935 92.90% 74.84% 0.1997% 2.10% -6 2321757.94310 94.56% 79.92% 19.0156% -429.08398
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4526 71.74% 16.88% 0.0181% 0.19% 28 270012.51618 71.27% 15.38% 2.2114% 1516.56303
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5437 82.55% 8.52% 0.0217% 0.23% 18 513355.25715 83.54% 8.60% 4.2045% 1490.77590
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7550 69.44% 8.81% 0.0302% 0.32% -9 1696510.13982 70.73% 9.39% 13.8947% -3950.46679
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1533 71.75% 6.72% 0.0061% 0.06% -1 1175737.73593 74.23% 6.98% 9.6295% -423.87124
> 1000 BTC 1106 67.81% 10.94% 0.0044% 0.05% -13 5228349.16611 70.97% 6.59% 42.8210% 3783.81449
Totale Attivi 2379645 69.80% 19.08% 9.5188% 100.00% 4764 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
Totale Generale 24999468 6.64% 1.82% 100.0000% 76306 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
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block# 278638 04/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22673227 0.00% 0.00% 90.4808% 53404 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404295 38.36% 8.86% 1.6134% 16.95% -17 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 851956 82.53% 31.81% 3.3999% 35.72% 838 164.96949 73.91% 11.80% 0.0014% 0.24306
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 675763 70.06% 10.46% 2.6967% 28.33% 3109 14247.40922 75.96% 15.53% 0.1167% 108.95934
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 231889 71.63% 9.76% 0.9254% 9.72% 1055 110119.05170 76.51% 11.97% 0.9016% 458.26623
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 96238 68.86% 9.72% 0.3841% 4.03% 571 236178.53363 70.57% 10.18% 1.9338% 1200.37063
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30697 72.31% 8.75% 0.1225% 1.29% 121 239508.99274 74.28% 8.73% 1.9611% 938.95697
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24472 69.83% 9.16% 0.0977% 1.03% 75 407689.10673 71.23% 9.36% 3.3381% 1150.26716
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49977 92.92% 74.77% 0.1994% 2.10% 42 2323276.23979 94.57% 79.86% 19.0225% 1518.29669
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4521 71.89% 16.90% 0.0180% 0.19% -5 269676.82062 71.41% 15.40% 2.2081% -335.69556
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5452 82.58% 8.47% 0.0218% 0.23% 15 514754.05486 83.56% 8.56% 4.2147% 1398.79771
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7545 69.78% 8.81% 0.0301% 0.32% -5 1687604.18765 71.22% 9.44% 13.8178% -8905.95216
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1465 74.81% 7.03% 0.0058% 0.06% -68 1132728.92220 76.80% 7.24% 9.2746% -43008.81373
> 1000 BTC 1112 66.64% 10.88% 0.0044% 0.05% 6 5277350.45896 69.19% 6.53% 43.2099% 49001.29285
Totale Attivi 2385382 69.79% 19.03% 9.5192% 100.00% 5737 12213298.75135 75.93% 21.49% 100.0000% 3524.98918
Totale Generale 25058609 6.64% 1.81% 100.0000% 59141 12213298.75135 75.93% 21.49% 100.0000% 3524.98918
num : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act : percentage of the number of addresses with zero balance (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table
donations : 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN
gbianchi bitcointalk.org bitcoin-italia.org
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p2pbucks
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January 05, 2014, 12:06:10 PM |
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thank you OP .Got it . gonna buy tons of BTC  |
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gbianchi (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3066
Merit: 2595
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January 05, 2014, 08:09:00 PM |
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25 million Bitcoin total adddresses !!!
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luv2drnkbr
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January 05, 2014, 09:42:16 PM |
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OBS: By the way, your data set do not have enough information to achieve any accurate result.
Prove it. Nope, that is up to you convince everyone except yourself that your theory is valid. Nope, each person have to prove his own statement. Simply saying "no" is just obstructing. Incorrect. Pointing out that a statement is not adequetly defended is not something which itself needs backing. If you say "unicorns exist", a perfectly valid response is "prove it". It's not on me to prove they don't. Similarly, gbianchi's claims are reversed engineered from the data, so of course they fit. In order to show the validity of the equation and the other claims, he would need to show they work with new data. Calling BS is a perfectly valid response. Nope, If someone says "unicorns exist" and then "proves" it with some kind of argument, you can not just say that it's BS, you have to point out the errors of the argument. In this case he would have to explain why he doesn't think the data is sufficient. That's completely correct, and not what it appeared to me you had said/implied. In this case, I'll do the arguing for the other guy and say that no matter how robust everything appears to be, it's still made to fit pre-existing data and the robustness may simply be to account for that. It needs to fit NEW data, and unless he can cross apply it elsewhere, that just means waiting a few years to get enough. I don't know enough about stats to get confidence rates for the quality of the theory based on new data, but I'm pretty sure one or two weeks since it came out is certainly not enough. |
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Arriemoller
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
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January 06, 2014, 02:08:59 AM |
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OBS: By the way, your data set do not have enough information to achieve any accurate result.
Prove it. Nope, that is up to you convince everyone except yourself that your theory is valid. Nope, each person have to prove his own statement. Simply saying "no" is just obstructing. Incorrect. Pointing out that a statement is not adequetly defended is not something which itself needs backing. If you say "unicorns exist", a perfectly valid response is "prove it". It's not on me to prove they don't. Similarly, gbianchi's claims are reversed engineered from the data, so of course they fit. In order to show the validity of the equation and the other claims, he would need to show they work with new data. Calling BS is a perfectly valid response. Nope, If someone says "unicorns exist" and then "proves" it with some kind of argument, you can not just say that it's BS, you have to point out the errors of the argument. In this case he would have to explain why he doesn't think the data is sufficient. That's completely correct, and not what it appeared to me you had said/implied. In this case, I'll do the arguing for the other guy and say that no matter how robust everything appears to be, it's still made to fit pre-existing data and the robustness may simply be to account for that. It needs to fit NEW data, and unless he can cross apply it elsewhere, that just means waiting a few years to get enough. I don't know enough about stats to get confidence rates for the quality of the theory based on new data, but I'm pretty sure one or two weeks since it came out is certainly not enough. I agree with you. |
Demokrati: Två vargar och ett lamm röstar om lunchmenyn. Democracy: Two wolfes and a lamb votes about the lunch menu.
Frihet: Ett väl beväpnat lamm opponerar sig mot omröstningen. Freedom: A well armed lamb opposes the outcome.
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gbianchi (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3066
Merit: 2595
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January 06, 2014, 09:18:15 AM |
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block# 277997 31/12/2013 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22441758 0.00% 0.00% 90.4651% 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404280 38.36% 8.87% 1.6297% 17.09% 0.00404 38.36% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 847019 82.64% 32.00% 3.4144% 35.81% 162.81388 74.23% 11.96% 0.0013% 0.00000
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 668303 69.87% 10.59% 2.6940% 28.25% 13963.94830 76.12% 15.85% 0.1145% 0.00000
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 226412 72.06% 10.01% 0.9127% 9.57% 108218.11728 76.81% 12.19% 0.8872% 0.00000
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95003 69.19% 9.86% 0.3830% 4.02% 233059.78513 70.93% 10.34% 1.9108% 0.00000
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 29992 72.25% 8.98% 0.1209% 1.27% 233938.55174 74.16% 8.96% 1.9180% 0.00000
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24236 70.10% 9.28% 0.0977% 1.02% 403972.84523 71.55% 9.47% 3.3120% 0.00000
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49906 92.97% 74.92% 0.2012% 2.11% 2321854.58095 94.60% 79.96% 19.0358% 0.00000
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4508 71.61% 16.99% 0.0182% 0.19% 269043.68708 71.13% 15.48% 2.2058% 0.00000
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5439 82.37% 8.59% 0.0219% 0.23% 513632.90805 83.38% 8.67% 4.2110% 0.00000
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7588 69.39% 8.76% 0.0306% 0.32% 1707653.00812 70.44% 9.33% 14.0003% 0.00000
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1541 71.84% 6.68% 0.0062% 0.07% 1181905.22759 74.39% 6.94% 9.6899% 0.00000
> 1000 BTC 1096 67.88% 11.04% 0.0044% 0.05% 5209868.29249 70.74% 6.61% 42.7134% 0.00000
Totale Attivi 2365323 69.79% 19.20% 9.5349% 100.00% 12197273.76960 76.29% 21.54% 100.0000% 0.00000
Totale Generale 24807081 6.65% 1.83% 100.0000% 12197273.76960 76.29% 21.54% 100.0000% 0.00000
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block# 278202 01/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22484473 0.00% 0.00% 90.4624% 42715 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404283 38.36% 8.87% 1.6266% 17.05% 3 0.00404 38.36% 8.87% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 847817 82.63% 31.97% 3.4110% 35.76% 798 163.03854 74.22% 11.95% 0.0013% 0.22467
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 670968 69.87% 10.54% 2.6995% 28.30% 2665 14038.53135 76.04% 15.76% 0.1150% 74.58306
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 227759 71.93% 9.95% 0.9163% 9.61% 1347 108723.69698 76.66% 12.13% 0.8910% 505.57969
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95113 69.09% 9.85% 0.3827% 4.01% 110 233340.10817 70.86% 10.33% 1.9122% 280.32304
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30192 72.24% 8.91% 0.1215% 1.27% 200 235463.04806 74.17% 8.89% 1.9296% 1524.49633
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24337 70.10% 9.23% 0.0979% 1.03% 101 405654.08188 71.51% 9.43% 3.3244% 1681.23665
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49954 92.91% 74.85% 0.2010% 2.11% 48 2323229.78711 94.56% 79.91% 19.0391% 1375.20616
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4505 71.74% 16.98% 0.0181% 0.19% -3 268891.55012 71.27% 15.47% 2.2036% -152.13695
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5427 82.40% 8.61% 0.0218% 0.23% -12 512617.40666 83.40% 8.69% 4.2010% -1015.50140
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7567 69.37% 8.79% 0.0304% 0.32% -21 1701775.49886 70.42% 9.36% 13.9462% -5877.50926
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1537 72.02% 6.70% 0.0062% 0.06% -4 1178115.25713 74.62% 6.96% 9.6548% -3789.97046
> 1000 BTC 1115 66.37% 10.85% 0.0045% 0.05% 19 5220386.75507 70.00% 6.60% 42.7816% 10518.46258
Totale Attivi 2370574 69.78% 19.15% 9.5376% 100.00% 5251 12202398.76370 75.99% 21.53% 100.0000% 5124.99410
Totale Generale 24855047 6.65% 1.83% 100.0000% 47966 12202398.76370 75.99% 21.53% 100.0000% 5124.99410
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block# 278336 02/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22548281 0.00% 0.00% 90.4712% 63808 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404294 38.36% 8.86% 1.6222% 17.02% 11 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 849233 82.56% 31.91% 3.4074% 35.76% 1416 164.01134 73.91% 11.87% 0.0013% 0.97280
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 670296 70.09% 10.55% 2.6895% 28.22% -672 14074.73463 76.17% 15.72% 0.1153% 36.20327
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 230397 71.69% 9.83% 0.9244% 9.70% 2638 109662.76743 76.43% 12.03% 0.8985% 939.07046
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95858 68.92% 9.77% 0.3846% 4.04% 745 235184.94718 70.67% 10.24% 1.9268% 1844.83901
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30365 71.94% 8.86% 0.1218% 1.28% 173 236584.64221 73.88% 8.85% 1.9383% 1121.59415
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24368 69.95% 9.22% 0.0978% 1.03% 31 406342.63442 71.36% 9.41% 3.3291% 688.55253
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49941 92.88% 74.83% 0.2004% 2.10% -13 2322187.02708 94.54% 79.91% 19.0254% -1042.76003
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4498 71.70% 16.99% 0.0180% 0.19% -7 268495.95315 71.24% 15.47% 2.1997% -395.59698
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5419 82.45% 8.56% 0.0217% 0.23% -8 511864.48125 83.45% 8.64% 4.1936% -752.92540
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7559 69.23% 8.80% 0.0303% 0.32% -8 1700460.60661 70.31% 9.37% 13.9316% -1314.89225
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1534 71.97% 6.71% 0.0062% 0.06% -3 1176161.60717 74.56% 6.97% 9.6361% -1953.64996
> 1000 BTC 1119 66.31% 10.81% 0.0045% 0.05% 4 5224565.35163 70.04% 6.59% 42.8041% 4178.59656
Totale Attivi 2374881 69.79% 19.12% 9.5288% 100.00% 4307 12205748.76786 75.96% 21.51% 100.0000% 3350.00416
Totale Generale 24923162 6.65% 1.82% 100.0000% 68115 12205748.76786 75.96% 21.51% 100.0000% 3350.00416
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block# 278497 03/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22619823 0.00% 0.00% 90.4812% 71542 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404312 38.36% 8.86% 1.6173% 16.99% 18 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 851118 82.54% 31.84% 3.4045% 35.77% 1885 164.72642 73.90% 11.82% 0.0013% 0.71508
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 672654 70.09% 10.51% 2.6907% 28.27% 2358 14138.44987 76.11% 15.65% 0.1158% 63.71524
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 230834 71.71% 9.81% 0.9234% 9.70% 437 109660.78547 76.50% 12.02% 0.8981% -1.98196
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95667 69.02% 9.78% 0.3827% 4.02% -191 234978.16300 70.77% 10.24% 1.9245% -206.78418
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30576 72.45% 8.79% 0.1223% 1.28% 211 238570.03577 74.42% 8.77% 1.9539% 1985.39356
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24397 69.95% 9.21% 0.0976% 1.03% 29 406538.83957 71.34% 9.40% 3.3296% 196.20515
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49935 92.90% 74.84% 0.1997% 2.10% -6 2321757.94310 94.56% 79.92% 19.0156% -429.08398
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4526 71.74% 16.88% 0.0181% 0.19% 28 270012.51618 71.27% 15.38% 2.2114% 1516.56303
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5437 82.55% 8.52% 0.0217% 0.23% 18 513355.25715 83.54% 8.60% 4.2045% 1490.77590
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7550 69.44% 8.81% 0.0302% 0.32% -9 1696510.13982 70.73% 9.39% 13.8947% -3950.46679
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1533 71.75% 6.72% 0.0061% 0.06% -1 1175737.73593 74.23% 6.98% 9.6295% -423.87124
> 1000 BTC 1106 67.81% 10.94% 0.0044% 0.05% -13 5228349.16611 70.97% 6.59% 42.8210% 3783.81449
Totale Attivi 2379645 69.80% 19.08% 9.5188% 100.00% 4764 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
Totale Generale 24999468 6.64% 1.82% 100.0000% 76306 12209773.76217 76.40% 21.50% 100.0000% 4024.99431
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block# 278638 04/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22673227 0.00% 0.00% 90.4808% 53404 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404295 38.36% 8.86% 1.6134% 16.95% -17 0.00404 38.36% 8.86% 0.0000% -0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 851956 82.53% 31.81% 3.3999% 35.72% 838 164.96949 73.91% 11.80% 0.0014% 0.24306
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 675763 70.06% 10.46% 2.6967% 28.33% 3109 14247.40922 75.96% 15.53% 0.1167% 108.95934
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 231889 71.63% 9.76% 0.9254% 9.72% 1055 110119.05170 76.51% 11.97% 0.9016% 458.26623
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 96238 68.86% 9.72% 0.3841% 4.03% 571 236178.53363 70.57% 10.18% 1.9338% 1200.37063
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30697 72.31% 8.75% 0.1225% 1.29% 121 239508.99274 74.28% 8.73% 1.9611% 938.95697
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24472 69.83% 9.16% 0.0977% 1.03% 75 407689.10673 71.23% 9.36% 3.3381% 1150.26716
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 49977 92.92% 74.77% 0.1994% 2.10% 42 2323276.23979 94.57% 79.86% 19.0225% 1518.29669
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4521 71.89% 16.90% 0.0180% 0.19% -5 269676.82062 71.41% 15.40% 2.2081% -335.69556
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5452 82.58% 8.47% 0.0218% 0.23% 15 514754.05486 83.56% 8.56% 4.2147% 1398.79771
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7545 69.78% 8.81% 0.0301% 0.32% -5 1687604.18765 71.22% 9.44% 13.8178% -8905.95216
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1465 74.81% 7.03% 0.0058% 0.06% -68 1132728.92220 76.80% 7.24% 9.2746% -43008.81373
> 1000 BTC 1112 66.64% 10.88% 0.0044% 0.05% 6 5277350.45896 69.19% 6.53% 43.2099% 49001.29285
Totale Attivi 2385382 69.79% 19.03% 9.5192% 100.00% 5737 12213298.75135 75.93% 21.49% 100.0000% 3524.98918
Totale Generale 25058609 6.64% 1.81% 100.0000% 59141 12213298.75135 75.93% 21.49% 100.0000% 3524.98918
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block# 278831 05/01/2014 num %noOut %dead %of tot %of att diff prev value %noOut %vdead %TotVal diff prev
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vuoti (0 BTC) 22739212 0.00% 0.00% 90.4908% 65985 0.00000 0.00% 0.00% 0.0000% 0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC) 404309 38.37% 8.86% 1.6090% 16.92% 14 0.00404 38.37% 8.86% 0.0000% 0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC ( ~1$ ) 852342 82.52% 31.79% 3.3919% 35.67% 386 165.21654 73.88% 11.78% 0.0014% 0.24706
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC 679851 70.04% 10.39% 2.7055% 28.45% 4088 14339.32288 75.80% 15.42% 0.1174% 91.91367
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC 231974 71.47% 9.75% 0.9231% 9.71% 85 109726.96492 76.42% 12.01% 0.8981% -392.08678
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC 95847 68.84% 9.75% 0.3814% 4.01% -391 235624.74062 70.55% 10.20% 1.9285% -553.79301
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC 30524 72.53% 8.78% 0.1215% 1.28% -173 238352.07341 74.48% 8.75% 1.9508% -1156.91933
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC 24519 69.98% 9.14% 0.0976% 1.03% 47 408407.84256 71.39% 9.34% 3.3426% 718.73583
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC 50000 92.96% 74.66% 0.1990% 2.09% 23 2323410.29452 94.59% 79.77% 19.0161% 134.05473
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC 4528 71.82% 16.87% 0.0180% 0.19% 7 270061.82610 71.33% 15.38% 2.2103% 385.00547
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC 5489 82.60% 8.38% 0.0218% 0.23% 37 518009.44498 83.60% 8.46% 4.2397% 3255.39013
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC 7576 69.90% 8.78% 0.0301% 0.32% 31 1693814.56175 71.31% 9.40% 13.8631% 6210.37410
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC 1461 74.54% 6.98% 0.0058% 0.06% -4 1129756.99767 76.51% 7.20% 9.2466% -2971.92453
> 1000 BTC 1114 66.61% 10.86% 0.0044% 0.05% 2 5276454.46010 69.35% 6.53% 43.1855% -895.99887
Totale Attivi 2389534 69.77% 18.99% 9.5092% 100.00% 4152 12218123.74982 75.99% 21.46% 100.0000% 4824.99847
Totale Generale 25128746 6.63% 1.81% 100.0000% 70137 12218123.74982 75.99% 21.46% 100.0000% 4824.99847
num : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act : percentage of the number of addresses with zero balance (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table
donations : 1LJuCmvbzk7Xph1LQRsSzjYYQVu81N53GN
gbianchi bitcointalk.org bitcoin-italia.org
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