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Author Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)  (Read 907152 times)
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aminorex
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March 16, 2014, 05:37:48 PM
Last edit: March 16, 2014, 05:56:43 PM by aminorex
 #1201

That looks eerily similar to the chart of silver from the breakdown since 2011 $48 peak.

Very much so.  That fact seems long-term bullish to me.  While I am short-term bullish on risk-off, medium-term bearish on industrial slowdown, I am long-term bullish on silver due to bearishness on fiat in the big picture.  The time-frames don't work for BTC, but the long-term bullish motivation is similar.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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March 16, 2014, 05:42:02 PM
 #1202

Trying to predict anything using charts/technical analysis with this low of volume is ridiculous. Small market buys/selloff does not indicate where the future market is heading when the volume is less than 3000 coins.  

Lower volume can reduce the strength of the signal and of the noise to different degrees.  If it is reducing the noise energy more than it is reducing the signal energy, you'll actually get a better picture during the low volume period.  How to tell whether it is reducing the noise vs. the signal?   Low volatility tends to favor signal.  You will notice than in the past, periods of lower volume have followed the cosmic trendline parallels more closely than have the high-volatility plunges and spikes.

I use the word "cosmic" to mean all-inclusive, total history.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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March 16, 2014, 06:02:57 PM
 #1203

What if resistance is logarithmic?



it looks to me like one or more of the points you built your resistance on was an outlier, skewing the slope.
Can you draw the correct chart? Has it already broken out?
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March 16, 2014, 06:31:10 PM
Last edit: March 16, 2014, 06:45:05 PM by MAbtc
 #1204

I don't think that trend line has much significance. The longer it goes on, the less useful it is. I think resistance based on recent price footprint is more relevant.
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March 17, 2014, 08:37:11 AM
 #1205

I said if Huobi breaks 3800, things are going to get very bearish. there she goes, and the volume is opening up. I think tonight we are headed to pass wave A to form wave C of a three wave decline on all exchanges.

tough trend line resistance kicks in at 558ish. that is where my buy is at, but who knows how far it could go if this is the sale of stolen coins. I will have some cash spare for the 400s and 300s.

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March 17, 2014, 09:01:04 AM
 #1206



One of the good features of the 2013 reversal was that the downtrend was broken right away on the initial surge - there was no guessing involved about whether the line was going to break and no work needed to try to 'break out' of it - it was already done. There was also this giant order book on mtgox that kept filling up with new fiat bids every day - every day a new few slabs of 1K walls added, rather than this pathetic bitstamp orderbook where fiat is being subtracted every day and now 600 looks like a cliff to fall off of.
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March 17, 2014, 12:10:36 PM
 #1207

I suspect that "money" never existed in the first place. What if the rally up to the November top was largely driven by NOTHING (as in computer-screen-fiat, not real fiat)? Just something to think about.

yes, it makes sense. The resulting huge premium on goxcoins price could have attracted many fool pig's (greedy's) coins, in order to try to keep the scheme going.
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March 17, 2014, 12:40:05 PM
 #1208

I suspect that "money" never existed in the first place. What if the rally up to the November top was largely driven by NOTHING (as in computer-screen-fiat, not real fiat)? Just something to think about.

yes, it makes sense. The resulting huge premium on goxcoins price could have attracted many fool pig's (greedy's) coins, in order to try to keep the scheme going.

and inversely the later "crash" in order to get more fiat in?

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March 17, 2014, 01:22:33 PM
 #1209

There was also this giant order book on mtgox that kept filling up with new fiat bids every day - every day a new few slabs of 1K walls added, rather than this pathetic bitstamp orderbook where fiat is being subtracted every day and now 600 looks like a cliff to fall off of.

I know this is a bit off-topic for this thread, but.

I remember the MtGox orderbook topped at about 21 million USD at the height of the bubble April 2013. Then we got withdraw delays and the delays kept in increasing until MtGox finally just stopped processing USD withdraws after "temporary" halting them two weeks and then announcing that USD withdraws had "resumed" - but in reality they never resumed.

At this point in time quite a few big players bought BTC and transferred it out. There was a pretty big premium for doing so, but the difference was like $90 in real markets vs $105 at MtGox (huge in percent but not huge in $).

Then MtGox started rallying and the bidside of the orderbook there started increasing until it topped at around $40 million. I was frequently completely confused by the big bids at MtGox during the last rally.

"Who in their right minds deposit USD to an exchange you can not withdraw from?" I was thinking while posting warnings against MtGox in the "MtGox withdraw delays gathering" thread. It just made ZERO sense to me. I just could not understand where these big bids were coming from and who in their right minds would send huge amounts of fiat to an exchange you can't withdraw from. "Whales" have the resources to do some basic research, it's not like you throw a million dollars at something without doing a minimum of research.

The bankruptcy documents clearly show that MtGox has about HALF (or slightly less than half) of the fiat supposedly in customer accounts. Their story - seriously - is that they "discovered" this on February 24th 2014 during their "investigation" into the supposed "malleability" Bitcoin theft. Their story is that they had NO IDEA that this large amount of fiat was missing prior to this date.

I wonder: Was that large bid-side at MtGox and those big bids really actually there in the first place, or was this just a mirage of numbers-backed-by-nothing on our computer screens?

Regardless of what you think of that: Reality is that MtGox really doesn't have more than half the fiat supposedly in customer accounts as of now. I suspect that "money" never existed in the first place. What if the rally up to the November top was largely driven by NOTHING (as in computer-screen-fiat, not real fiat)? Just something to think about.
Actually $40M USD is not a large bid side at all for a price of $1000. At $100 there was a large bid side of $15M. So at $1000, a large bid side would be $150M.
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March 17, 2014, 01:24:58 PM
 #1210

I suspect that "money" never existed in the first place. What if the rally up to the November top was largely driven by NOTHING (as in computer-screen-fiat, not real fiat)? Just something to think about.

yes, it makes sense. The resulting huge premium on goxcoins price could have attracted many fool pig's (greedy's) coins, in order to try to keep the scheme going.

and inversely the later "crash" in order to get more fiat in?


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March 17, 2014, 01:33:31 PM
 #1211

I wonder: Was that large bid-side at MtGox and those big bids really actually there in the first place, or was this just a mirage of numbers-backed-by-nothing on our computer screens?

While this might be possible (there seems to be no practical limit to the amount of gox incompetence) I would speculate that this was simply an effect of the fiat withdrawal delays. Gox used to be the biggest exchange and I suppose lots of people sold BTC for fiat during the 2013 bear market, many of them waiting to re-buy lower. Once fiat withdrawal problems started and the premium in BTC price developed, many people wanted to buy BTC just to get out of there, but I can see myself being reluctant to pay such a high premium by hitting market order. So I just place limit orders and hope they get filled. Thus the large bid side. It seems a simpler explanation to yours. Yours does make sense, too, this one just seems a simpler explanation.

Now that I think of it, this would also explain the difference between the June 2013 recovery and our supposed 2014 recovery. There is no such condition as "unable to get fiat out of the biggest exchange" operating right now.

It's all bullshit. But bullshit makes the flowers grow and that's beautiful.
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March 17, 2014, 01:39:49 PM
 #1212

Right now the Bitstamp orderbook is about 10-15% of what it should be as the major exchange. The whole world now is setting their price based off Bitstamp and all comercial servies connect through Bitstamp as a hub. Bitstamp is basically the new gox. Yet it has this tiny book still. The book should have a bid of about 100M USD but instead it has a bid of 12M USD.  It would take only a 30K market-sell dump to bring prices below $60. I know what you're going to say - I keep hearing it over and over: "Who would be stupid enough to do that"? It doesn't matter - the fact is that people CAN, and that people HAVE. There are dozens of wallets with 60K+ btc and bitcoin's history is littered with random 20K-50K dumps, as wall as panic events like silkroad. No serious trader is going to take a position, especially not a leveraged position, when they are vulnerable to this type of price swing - which can be caused by the action of only one person. Even if it bounced back, a leveraged position would be force liquidated and result in a total loss. The bid is important.
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March 17, 2014, 04:49:23 PM
 #1213

Right now the Bitstamp orderbook is about 10-15% of what it should be as the major exchange. The whole world now is setting their price based off Bitstamp and all comercial servies connect through Bitstamp as a hub. Bitstamp is basically the new gox. Yet it has this tiny book still. The book should have a bid of about 100M USD but instead it has a bid of 12M USD.  It would take only a 30K market-sell dump to bring prices below $60. I know what you're going to say - I keep hearing it over and over: "Who would be stupid enough to do that"? It doesn't matter - the fact is that people CAN, and that people HAVE. There are dozens of wallets with 60K+ btc and bitcoin's history is littered with random 20K-50K dumps, as wall as panic events like silkroad. No serious trader is going to take a position, especially not a leveraged position, when they are vulnerable to this type of price swing - which can be caused by the action of only one person. Even if it bounced back, a leveraged position would be force liquidated and result in a total loss. The bid is important.

Anybody know what Vaurum's orderbook size is? I heard that BitPay/Coinbase might be using them...
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March 17, 2014, 06:51:07 PM
 #1214

Bounce at this moving support but failure on momentum. I don't see much strength here. Looking to close the rest of my long on this bounce.



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March 17, 2014, 07:21:45 PM
 #1215

interesting

mabtc, i really like ur posts and charts but i think u might be overanalyzing many times
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March 17, 2014, 08:03:46 PM
 #1216

Hi, just wanted to drop a note. I came back from Estonia, where I had blissfully been in communications blackout. (It is so relaxing that I thought it would be a nice feature to not have wifi in Malla at all Wink )

We made some real progress with all the plans but I don't want to share the details here. There is another forum for that, and we are thinking to open a Malla website - or of course we will have a website, but there is a difference whether it is a hotel frontend or a community portal.

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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March 17, 2014, 08:58:09 PM
 #1217

interesting

mabtc, i really like ur posts and charts but i think u might be overanalyzing many times

Could you elaborate? I am always open to criticism. We've been sideways almost two weeks, and any test/breakdown of supports is notable.
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March 17, 2014, 10:05:22 PM
 #1218

Can you draw the correct chart? Has it already broken out?

unfortunately, it is difficult to tell what is the "correct" chart as any conjecture regarding which points are outliers is merely that -- conjecture. the best model for the mid-term moving resistance is a whole family of lines, with the one that has the most points of contact and the best case for its violations being outliers being most likely to carry significance. this requires a broader hypothesis with evidence for each of these internal assumptions.

that being said, the model i'm using right now still has not indicated a breakout. notice the daily RSI is still struggling to crossover the 50-line.

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March 17, 2014, 11:13:40 PM
 #1219

Hi, just wanted to drop a note. I came back from Estonia, where I had blissfully been in communications blackout. (It is so relaxing that I thought it would be a nice feature to not have wifi in Malla at all Wink )

We made some real progress with all the plans but I don't want to share the details here. There is another forum for that, and we are thinking to open a Malla website - or of course we will have a website, but there is a difference whether it is a hotel frontend or a community portal.

You should rename the thread to Quality Malla Observer

He would... but there's another forum for that too.

OT..  right now big players are quietly buying into fear based selling pressure from the holders who are letting go.
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March 18, 2014, 06:52:15 AM
 #1220

Hi, just wanted to drop a note. I came back from Estonia, where I had blissfully been in communications blackout. (It is so relaxing that I thought it would be a nice feature to not have wifi in Malla at all Wink )

We made some real progress with all the plans but I don't want to share the details here. There is another forum for that, and we are thinking to open a Malla website - or of course we will have a website, but there is a difference whether it is a hotel frontend or a community portal.

You should rename the thread to Quality Malla Observer

He would... but there's another forum for that too.

OT..  right now big players are quietly buying into fear based selling pressure from the holders who are letting go.

Yes, like I told, the Malla discussion will happen somewhere else. I just share the top feelings and keep you posted for the hosting capacity increases. Currently it is between 6-12 guests, and not yet ready for international conferences. See - I am not only living in luxury, but also selling it for meetings Smiley

HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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