rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[coolbeans94]

IMO, BTC will jsteadily keep dropping and go sub $300. Just watch. Bottom will be @ around $250 just watch. The $102 guy in February might actually have been genius, so far it really looks like a smart move.

[smoothie]

IMO, BTC will jsteadily keep dropping and go sub $300. Just watch. Bottom will be @ around $250 just watch. The $102 guy in February might actually have been genius, so far it really looks like a smart move.

Lines crossing means nothing lol.

[ArticMine]

Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!?  

I love a good sale!  

Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more!

If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good  

Or the formula is just wrong. Take the Microsoft stock for example. It started low and reached an high about 15 years ago. So if we draw a line it should be in the thousands today. But it is lower. So read this as long as you can. He will delete that post as soon as he can. Because this is a glorification thread. Critique is not allowed...

Microsoft is a great example given it close to monopoly status on desktop computer operating systems and office software. From 1987 to 2000 it followed an exponential growth model just like our model. This corresponds to the adoption of the desktop / laptop PC and is a classic S curve. When the adoption reaches close to the inflection point at 50% one gets a short continuation of the exponential followed by a long term crash, when the market realizes that the exponential cannot go on for ever. At this point the exponential approximation to the S curve breaks down. For Bitcoin I would expect this to occur somewhere between 100,000 USD to 1,000,000 USD, corresponding to about 50% market adoption. Take a look at Microsoft on a log scale from 1987 onwards. https://www.google.ca/finance?q=NASDAQ:MSFT&sa=X&ei=BmJHU9zHMPP7yAHvnIGoDA&ved=0CCoQ2AEwAA Facebook on the other hand is a very poor example because when it went public it was close to saturating its market, in effect leaving very little, if anything, on the table for the retail investor.

A very similar model can be used for RCA in the 1920s and 1930s with the stock continuing on an exponential path to its peak in 1929, while the adoption of radio was at the time reaching the inflection point of the S curve. Internet stocks peaked around 2000 while Internet penetration had reached around 50% in most of the developed economies. Again a blow off to a major top close to the inflection point of the adoption S curve.

[BitChick]

IMO, BTC will jsteadily keep dropping and go sub $300. Just watch. Bottom will be @ around $250 just watch. The $102 guy in February might actually have been genius, so far it really looks like a smart move.

Probably not.  It is actually really difficult for us to go down that low.  The odds are that we won't go down any further.  I am not a TA expert but it is because of the number of people involved in Bitcoin now.  There are too many people that want Bitcoin now so to get below $300 would be difficult and to $250 almost impossible.  We are already at 80% below the trend line as it is.

[ArticMine]

Take a look at the BIT. The deep pockets are buying. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0;all

Edit: So much for liquidity at the beginning of April.

[ArticMine]

The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.

This is a very interesting idea, modelling bitcoin market capitalization rather than price. I maintain a logistic model of price that I can adapt for market cap. Did you estimate the historical data series for the number of circulating bitcoins, or is this available for download somewhere?

I am currently away from home and will not return until Monday, at which point I will continue buying fractional coin from my local bitcoin ATM.
 

I used to total number of BTC created using the Blockchain data. One issue I am still trying to grapple with is accounting for irrevocably lost coins. I followed the model of accounting for stock splits when pricing a stock; however in the case of Bitcoin the "stock split" occurs approximately every 10 min. For example 12,629,850 BTC is "split" to 12,629,875 BTC when the next block is mined.

[rpietila]

Woke up, missed all the cheap coins. 

[cAPSLOCK]

Woke up, missed all the cheap coins. 

Gotta say, I hope you don't get a second chance at them.  And if you don't... then these are the cheap coins.

But I am afraid we see mid 300s within 24-72...  please tell me I am wrong.

[cAPSLOCK]

Woof.  China almost looks like there's news its so explosive.  That's a mighty strong bounce for a dead cat.

[cosmofly]

Woke up, missed all the cheap coins.  

Use a bot

[serenitys]

Attention shoppers, sale in aisle 3!  Bitcoin 80% off!
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.

When do you think it will go back up?

When you stop caring when it will go up.

Yep....that's what happened. It was 339-360s and I decided to go eat, not sweat it - tomorrow it'll be below 300.

Twenty minutes later, one last check for tonight - 390s and up...fuckit...I cracked but I at least got my first BTC at a smidge under $400. I wanted lower but whatever...400 was my sweat zone. If it drops lower, I'll do more - but will anyway in the coming weeks. Just needed the first one to get on the roller coaster. YAY I CAN FINALLY PLAY!!!

So NOW if I check in Saturday and it's 89 bucks, I'm gonna cry  

[rpietila]

Woke up, missed all the cheap coins.  

Use a bot

No, the problem was I boycott all the exchanges until there is one who let me trade without giving them my money and fiat. Otherwise I would have used a spread of buys ofc.

[frienemy]

No, the problem was I boycott all the exchanges until there is one who let me trade without giving them my money and fiat. Otherwise I would have used a spread of buys ofc.

Have you tried bitcoin.de? SEPA transferrals from person to person. Sometimes a bit complicated though and volume is not enormous, but you don't have to wire them your fiat at least.

[rpietila]

No, the problem was I boycott all the exchanges until there is one who let me trade without giving them my money and fiat. Otherwise I would have used a spread of buys ofc.

Have you tried bitcoin.de? SEPA transferrals from person to person. Sometimes a bit complicated though and volume is not enormous, but you don't have to wire them your fiat at least.

Too little volume. Even all the exchanges have too little volume. That's why I rarely trade and just breathe hot air.

[rpietila]

Hey, but the support zone in 382-400 was broken intraday (it was intraday support, the "daily close" support was previously at 500 and was broken in this latest slide many days ago)! Is there anything you think it affects the big picture?

My thoughts:
- It is either a cause or effect of an increased probability for Bitcoin to fail, and therefore justifiable by EV (expected value) analysis. Like if the scenario weighted expected price of BTC1 in 5 years was $1M in December, now it is only $400k. It is rational that the exchange rate takes into account the decreased percentage of a home run, but I posit the EV is still orders of magnitude higher than PV, and that the ratio EV/PV (can be expressed as discount rate [I = (EV/PV)^(1/5) - 1]) has hardly gotten worse, likely better.
- The price is now -0.39 below trendline, which is a new record! Last time we got this low when going down in price, was in 2011-11-15. I was pretty amused to find out the similarity in sentiment and the moves in exchange rate around the date. The upside seems better than downside at the moment, in fact around 2011-11-15 was the single most coveted buy zone since the $32 bubble.
- After going so deep, the probability that it takes longer than expected to get back to the ATH is increased. I still think the baseline case is to smash the ATH this autumn, but it is not as sure as before.
- Fundamentally the crypto adoption is doing good and the news about it in last months have not really been depressing, rather many have just watched the price and thought that the news are also bad, even though they're good! In absence of exchanges and agenda setting in forum boards, I would think Bitcoin is doing just fine, and so would you.

[chessnut]

- After going so deep, the probability that it takes longer than expected to get back to the ATH is increased. I still think the baseline case is to smash the ATH this autumn, but it is not as sure as before.

Don't you think this is a blessing? the base we will launch from will be broad before the next rally. the shallower the log curve is now, means it will be a giant when it goes vertical.

[podyx]

I still think we see $6k in july to be honest (optimistic, yessir)

We'll see

[rocks]

Take a look at the BIT. The deep pockets are buying. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0;all

Edit: So much for liquidity at the beginning of April.

Over 100,000 BTC and still growing.

And BIT is a difficult to access fund, imagine the amount of BTC demand when the ETFs and other investment mechanisms hit the market.

[merkin51]

So... was that the floor? Or are we going to go back and retest the 340s again?

[magicmexican]

So... was that the floor? Or are we going to go back and retest the 340s again?

No, but i can see the bear trap to 370, maybe 360 even