rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Biodom]

It should be interesting to see how bitcoin performs during a financial crash. People are optimistic that people will run from the S&P and the USD into bitcoin. I think bitcoin will end up getting smashed along with tech stocks.

Everything except short end of the sovereign bonds will get smashed going into the October global contagion. After that, bonds will collapse and all private assets will rocket up, including gold, BTC, and US stocks.

The lows for gold and BTC in this coming final hooray for sovereign bonds are going to be severe.

The stock market bubbles will pop but it sounds silly to say that it will definitely be in October and not before and not after.

The market always does the exact opposite of what i expect, or at least it takes inordinate amount of time for market to match my 'expectations', which pretty much mostly precludes me from getting much of cap gains in bearish positions (longs are OK for now, except btc).
example 1- thought RE will go down in 2006, but it lingered until 2008
example 2- though that we will never go above Sp500 1576 and make a triple top-but we are at >2100
example 3- bitcoin (thought that $350 was THE bottom)

Re SP500-Hussman was always wrong in the last 3 years, but so was Roger Babson in 1928-1929.
Hussman:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150615.htm
Blodget on Hussman and Babson:
http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-coming-2015-6

[1714048782]

1714048782

[1714048782]

1714048782

[AlexGR]

Silver at 9$? Party time

at 9$ there will be queues to buy monster boxes -with me in.

Considering that the premium for ASEs, maples etc is pretty much a fixed number (say 1-2$), the lower the price of 1oz, the higher the "premium" you have to pay due to the fixed mint/reseller profit margins.

At 20$/1oz if you pay an extra 2$ to buy a 1oz maple or ASE, it's just +10%.
At 10$/1oz, if you pay an extra 2$ (-if not more due to physical shortages at these price levels-) to buy the same 1oz round, premium goes to 20%.

At that point junk silver might be the better option. Provided there is supply (which will probably be absorbed very fast).

[afbitcoins]

Enjoyed chat about gravity/anti gravity earlier thought some might be interested in this, Electric Gravity

http://www.holoscience.com/wp/electric-gravity-in-an-electric-universe/

[rpietila]

I have the feeling that the uptrend is slowly getting started. My hunch is that there is a good chance that this one will carry us to quite high values.

Caveats:
- I think it will be slow. Much slower than the culmination of the 2013 uptrend(s). If we put this in perspective of the time after the 2011 peak and downtrend, we are now emerging from the "$5 plateau", with perhaps a year more before hitting even the old ATH.
- The banksters are getting Bitcoin in their grip. The combination of extensive controls, AML/KYC, exchange failures, shorting, etc. means that no honest person has much business trying to affect the price. It will go where they want it to go, within bounds of course. They have managed it to stay low for this long, but cannot do it indefinitely
- Selling will be difficult, because at the apex of the bubble, ordinary old guard people will have million$ worth of BTC, and it's even possible that special taxes will be enacted by govts to capture most of the value from recorded sales (selling such amounts off-record and buying anything with the proceeds off-record is an activity not reserved for honest people in our current system).
- Because of the high cost of selling, not much coin will enter the market quickly enough, making the peak quite steep, as the previous peaks also have been. When the price doubles in a week, it's time to exit, and better have thought the way to do it in advance.

I would abstain from selling now, except for immediate cash flow needs. It is more likely that every month from now the price is higher, so delaying is advantageous. When the old ATH is broken, things get interesting. My sell zone starts from $3000 as I have said many times starting from more than a year ago

[rjclarke2000]

Mr pietila,

What tax implications do you think will be set up for people in the future who don't cash out btc to fiat?

For example I make...let's say £500,000 from 100btc (which I don't have but is an example) in the years down the line.

I then am able to buy a property WITH btc. How can that be taxed?

Thanks.

[Wexlike]

Mr pietila,

What tax implications do you think will be set up for people in the future who don't cash out btc to fiat?

For example I make...let's say £500,000 from 100btc (which I don't have but is an example) in the years down the line.

I then am able to buy a property WITH btc. How can that be taxed?

Thanks.

I could think of a few "socialist" laws, that steal big parts of your money because it is not "fair" to the society, that you become rich just by spending 1000$ in 2012 on bitcoins.  

[okthen]

I have the feeling that the uptrend is slowly getting started. My hunch is that there is a good chance that this one will carry us to quite high values.

Caveats:
- I think it will be slow. Much slower than the culmination of the 2013 uptrend(s). If we put this in perspective of the time after the 2011 peak and downtrend, we are now emerging from the "$5 plateau", with perhaps a year more before hitting even the old ATH.
- The banksters are getting Bitcoin in their grip. The combination of extensive controls, AML/KYC, exchange failures, shorting, etc. means that no honest person has much business trying to affect the price. It will go where they want it to go, within bounds of course. They have managed it to stay low for this long, but cannot do it indefinitely
- Selling will be difficult, because at the apex of the bubble, ordinary old guard people will have million$ worth of BTC, and it's even possible that special taxes will be enacted by govts to capture most of the value from recorded sales (selling such amounts off-record and buying anything with the proceeds off-record is an activity not reserved for honest people in our current system).
- Because of the high cost of selling, not much coin will enter the market quickly enough, making the peak quite steep, as the previous peaks also have been. When the price doubles in a week, it's time to exit, and better have thought the way to do it in advance.

I would abstain from selling now, except for immediate cash flow needs. It is more likely that every month from now the price is higher, so delaying is advantageous. When the old ATH is broken, things get interesting. My sell zone starts from $3000 as I have said many times starting from more than a year ago

What do you think are the best ways to do so for us common mortals (ie non-whales)?

I get nervous just thinking about thw new ath because I have no idea how I would proceed!

[kehtolo]

Mr pietila,

What tax implications do you think will be set up for people in the future who don't cash out btc to fiat?

For example I make...let's say £500,000 from 100btc (which I don't have but is an example) in the years down the line.

I then am able to buy a property WITH btc. How can that be taxed?

Thanks.

That will vary from country to country. If the country you live in starts with bank bail-ins - expect them to try and come after all wealth.

Impossible to say what future taxes in any country would be like...

[gentlemand]

Mr pietila,

What tax implications do you think will be set up for people in the future who don't cash out btc to fiat?

For example I make...let's say £500,000 from 100btc (which I don't have but is an example) in the years down the line.

I then am able to buy a property WITH btc. How can that be taxed?

Thanks.

I assume you'd need to declare the capital gain on the coins you're paying with. I can't really see them coming up with custom legislation. How many people in the UK have 100 BTC? A couple of thousand? By the time it's everywhere the silly gains will be long since completed.

[rpietila]

You are too young. When dollar was devalued in the U.S. during the 1900s, the IRS instituted special penalty taxes on the supposed "gain" that you could have made by holding silver and gold instead of fiat paper. They wanted to tax everybody equally so gold was declared illegal unless you sold it to the govt for $20 per ounce (it was revalued at $35, for the 40% wealth tax) and later same kind happened to silver.

Let's assume that the banksters want to officially hint that BTC will be made an international settlement currency (perhaps for real, perhaps as a trap). This will raise the price to $1 million per BTC (it's still smaller than USD). There are 100-500k people who hold BTC1 or more, and are made millionaires by this decree. If history is any guide, the banksters want to steal 100% of the gains that are supposedly created by the decree, leaving nothing for the risk carried by the speculator. Then you would be required to sell your BTC to the banksters for $1k or so, or they would be made illegal. (Yes, I know there is no point whatsoever from the user's perspective in such a monetary system, but then again that applies to the current one as well, and does not stop them from forcing it on us.)

Hopefully they have accumulated enough during the downturn that this won't be implemented

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

[molecular]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

[rpietila]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

[rjclarke2000]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

If BTC hits 1m I will be richer than anyone I've ever met. I struggle to comprehend this.

[jehst]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

If BTC hits 1m I will be richer than anyone I've ever met. I struggle to comprehend this.

Then a lot of your friends are going to be asking to borrow money

[macsga]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap  

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

If BTC hits 1m I will be richer than anyone I've ever met. I struggle to comprehend this.

Then a lot of your friends are going to be asking to borrow money

Good thing with BTC (& XMR) is that they may never have to find out if you don't want them to. This is far better than losing all your friends over wealth.

[rjclarke2000]

People are worrying that a $50 increase is too fast during the recent pump and this supposedly means it'll correct.

How can btc increase on a large scale without big increases? I'll be 200 years old if we have slow steady growth from now until glorious wealth and security.

How can something increase in value without causing instability in the market?

[TrueCryptonaire]

People are worrying that a $50 increase is too fast during the recent pump and this supposedly means it'll correct.

How can btc increase on a large scale without big increases? I'll be 200 years old if we have slow steady growth from now until glorious wealth and security.

How can something increase in value without causing instability in the market?

If it grows steadily 2 % per day (yes - this is steady in bitcoin or Monero), in 1 year you have pretty high growth behind.
Personally I like Monero as it has potential to grow even against bitcoin.
I own both but I tend to like owning Monero more as I consider it as a "leverage" price increase to bitcoin's price increase.

[molecular]

People are worrying that a $50 increase is too fast during the recent pump and this supposedly means it'll correct.

How can btc increase on a large scale without big increases? I'll be 200 years old if we have slow steady growth from now until glorious wealth and security.

How can something increase in value without causing instability in the market?

If it climbs 10% every week it wont take 200 years.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Let's assume that the banksters want to officially hint that BTC will be made an international settlement currency (perhaps for real, perhaps as a trap). This will raise the price to $1 million per BTC (it's still smaller than USD). There are 100-500k people who hold BTC1 or more, and are made millionaires by this decree. If history is any guide, the banksters want to steal 100% of the gains that are supposedly created by the decree, leaving nothing for the risk carried by the speculator. Then you would be required to sell your BTC to the banksters for $1k or so, or they would be made illegal. (Yes, I know there is no point whatsoever from the user's perspective in such a monetary system, but then again that applies to the current one as well, and does not stop them from forcing it on us.)

In that case I would use some coins to buy real stuff in some safe place (i.e. not bankrupt/failed state), and/or convert some coins in wheelbarrows of fiat directly there, and buy some phyzz for btc to be on the safe side. Problem solved. The world is still much differentiated, luckily.

[Erdogan]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

If BTC hits 1m I will be richer than anyone I've ever met. I struggle to comprehend this.

I feel your pain