rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[TERA]

Wow so much drama over 2311 BTC volume.

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[AnonyMint]

You can think of dividing the bitcoin adopters to segments like this:

2009 - 100
2010 - 1,000
2011 - 10,000
2012 - 100,000
2013 - 1,000,000
2014 - 10,000,000
2015 - 100,000,000
2016 - 1,000,000,000.

It is a very rough classification but approximately correct. The top of the pyramid has quite good understanding of Bitcoin, the bottom not only doesn't have it but is quite unprepared to understand it deeply even if explained.

The press articles cater to this "2016 segment" that does not have bitcoins and will not have them this or the next year. This information is mostly factually incorrect and very shallow. Because the press articles are read by the general public, they cannot be targeted to 0.1-1% of the population. They have to be poor as shit

I am thus questioning your premise that 1 billion people can adopt Bitcoin by end of 2016:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=455141.msg5716065#msg5716065

I think that is utter fantasy. No way that will happen. Absolutely 0.

They would only move in if they are investors, because there is no currency reason for the masses to adopt Bitcoin any time soon.

Thus I conclude Bitcoin will crash in 2014 or 2015. It can't reach 100 million.

[jlin]

BFX longs are also at > 3:1 to shorts currently (based on price of 640), with ~ 16 million USD swapped, which is always good to keep in mind if we fail to breach this upside resistance.

It's not clear what proportion of that 16 million was used for BTC rather than LTC longs.  It seems like there is still potential for a short squeeze.  In terms of USD, total BTC swap sum is close to the amount held prior to the March 3 breakout of the February downtrend.  We are steadily approaching the December downtrend, and similar large uptick could occur on breakout fueled by shorts covering and panic buying.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ktr73ysx/

[TERA]

What if resistance is logarithmic?

[chessnut]

got out of my shorts this morning at 627. the support has lasted too long.... and now the bulls are testing.

I still have a small portion of my long open from 3/10 that didn't stop out. I'm trying to close it in the 650s if I can. The last breach of 660 looked primed for takeoff; it was a false breakout and we declined. This will be the third attempt at cracking this resistance if we can get there. There were some short term bullish divergences after we broke down through 630, but I see a lot of resistance here, and won't be chasing price.



BFX longs are also at > 3:1 to shorts currently (based on price of 640), with ~ 16 million USD swapped, which is always good to keep in mind if we fail to breach this upside resistance.

I am thinking mid-term (1-2 months) bullish but I think we see some downside movement first. This move from 400 has not been characteristic of an impulsive one that would indicate to me the start of a new up trend. But the February down trend was much more predictable, so while I was fully leveraged short on several occasions then, I will not be now. Light and tight -- if at all. We are near the end of this bear market I think, but with sentiment so uber bullish (I don't know what rpietila was talking about with that one) despite a very congested and stagnated move upwards, I don't think we have seen the end of it.

I also think we haven't seen the end of it, we should test 550 again, but the chart is behaving strange to me. Every trade I took before the 400 low came at my command, but now the market is just wondering around and is not responding very accurately.
Im not prepared to sit out a strategy so robust as yours, I want a quick trade to reduce exchange risk and sovereign risk. I was lucky to get back on the train at 560 a few weeks ago, and it went straight to 690. Im not a news trader but BTC is vulnerable to good news at the moment such as the opening of exchanges in America.
Im just gonna hold some LTC until the 19th and hope those chines shell out for a few.

[chessnut]

I hate to think that we could sit at around 630 for about a month, and false break-outs either side eating away at your funds. nope. no more trading for me.

[TERA]

I hate to think that we could sit at around 630 for about a month, and false break-outs either side eating away at your funds. nope. no more trading for me.

You might appreciate this chart then:

[seleme]

I noticed that bitfinex was the one exchange that didn't participate in that 'joint statement of bitcoin exchanges after mtgox'

BTC-e did not too.

[MatTheCat]

I noticed that bitfinex was the one exchange that didn't participate in that 'joint statement of bitcoin exchanges after mtgox'

BTC-e did not too.

Both those exchanges have allowed early confirmation of BTC transactions.

Both these sites had the 100 USD Bitcoin hack. I say hack cos plenty people never got their orders filled.

Both these sites have most likely been robbed.

Both these sites are running a fractional reserve Bitcoin operation.


That is what I reckon anyways.

[chessnut]

I hate to think that we could sit at around 630 for about a month, and false break-outs either side eating away at your funds. nope. no more trading for me.

You might appreciate this chart then:

Thanks for the chart. very true.

On a smaller scale though, I dont know what to think. Huobi is threatening fresh lows today, but BTCe and Bitstamp are looking quite bullish. that why Im stepping back.
I think all eyes on Huobi tonight, it may pave the way into the 500s. If not, Im not going to assume anything.

[sgbett]

I noticed that bitfinex was the one exchange that didn't participate in that 'joint statement of bitcoin exchanges after mtgox'

BTC-e did not too.

Both those exchanges have allowed early confirmation of BTC transactions.

Both these sites had the 100 USD Bitcoin hack. I say hack cos plenty people never got their orders filled.

Both these sites have most likely been robbed.

Both these sites are running a fractional reserve Bitcoin operation.


That is what I reckon anyways.

worth noting. for what my opinion is worth.

[chessnut]

Stamp just outlined a wedge with that little spike. should break out to the down side. but Huobi is a menace....

[RicePicker]

Trying to predict anything using charts/technical analysis with this low of volume is ridiculous. Small market buys/selloff does not indicate where the future market is heading when the volume is less than 3000 coins.  

[chessnut]

just because there is low volume does not mean there are no buyers/sellers in the shadows. that spike was a 300 BTC sell off ad it hit the wedge just right. besides, the bias that it will fall tonight is based on a much larger piece of price history than just a few days.

[AnonyMint]

What if resistance is logarithmic?

That looks eerily similar to the chart of silver from the breakdown since 2011 $48 peak.

[chessnut]

^^ true!

[chessnut]

quoted from BTCe chatbox - "yay going all in!!" "to mars!" "to moon!" "hold now or cry!" It is getting busy. I have found this a very good time to sell in the past.

[creekbore]

quoted from BTCe chatbox - "yay going all in!!" "to mars!" "to moon!" "hold now or cry!" It is getting busy. I have found this a very good time to sell in the past.

You need the trollbox to be over 8K users before it begins to meltdown into something completely malleable

[cosmofly]

What if resistance is logarithmic?

That looks eerily similar to the chart of silver from the breakdown since 2011 $48 peak.

i've stated before the the current behavior in Bitcoin is too similar to Gold & Silver's peak 2 years ago. The price kept up at high levels for a while, going up at every dive until they finally gave in and crashed.

[arepo]

What if resistance is logarithmic?

it looks to me like one or more of the points you built your resistance on was an outlier, skewing the slope.