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Author Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)  (Read 907159 times)
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March 31, 2014, 10:31:10 PM
 #1881

https://medium.com/p/ba5f3fcce103

Finding Equilibrium : Searching for the true value of a Bitcoin

Vinny Lingham, CEO of Gyft, discusses some of the current forces affecting the price of bitcoin. A very worthwhile read imho.

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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, which will follow the rules of the network no matter what miners do. Even if every miner decided to create 1000 bitcoins per block, full nodes would stick to the rules and reject those blocks.
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March 31, 2014, 10:47:56 PM
 #1882

A comparison with tulips, really? I thought we had dealt with this shit already. Still dumb people out there apparently.
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March 31, 2014, 10:49:33 PM
 #1883

http://blog.cryptocurrencyconcepts.net/post/72894222386/the-bitcoin-bull-market

Quote
The peak-to-trough total return of Bitcoin on Bitstamp is precisely: 1,163,000% - this is the biggest bull-market on a CAGR basis in the history of financial markets.

DO NOT underestimate the upside surprise in cryptocurrency valutations, not on a single trading day of your participation in these markets. Also don’t underestimate downside volatility. Expect the unexpected, and expect cryptocurrency to envelop an increasing fraction of the global financial ecosystem. We are not talking about something as big as the IPO of Google, or even the creation of commodity futures markets and option markets, we are talking about something as big as the invention of the printing press and then the turning in of Tally Sticks in exchange for stock certificates in the Bank of England at its founding in 1694.


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March 31, 2014, 10:50:47 PM
 #1884

It's been a good run. I bid you all farewell. Even the perma bulls.

.... so you think this is the end for BTC?


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March 31, 2014, 11:18:31 PM
 #1885

It's been a good run. I bid you all farewell. Even the perma bulls.

.... so you think this is the end for BTC?



No. It's the end of this forum. For me.

Reasoning?

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March 31, 2014, 11:23:44 PM
 #1886

It's been a good run. I bid you all farewell. Even the perma bulls.

.... so you think this is the end for BTC?



No. It's the end of this forum. For me.

Reasoning?

Charts of tulips perhaps?  Wink

Rpietila can delete them if it helps! 

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March 31, 2014, 11:25:22 PM
 #1887

http://blog.cryptocurrencyconcepts.net/post/72894222386/the-bitcoin-bull-market

Quote
The peak-to-trough total return of Bitcoin on Bitstamp is precisely: 1,163,000% - this is the biggest bull-market on a CAGR basis in the history of financial markets.

DO NOT underestimate the upside surprise in cryptocurrency valutations, not on a single trading day of your participation in these markets. Also don’t underestimate downside volatility. Expect the unexpected, and expect cryptocurrency to envelop an increasing fraction of the global financial ecosystem. We are not talking about something as big as the IPO of Google, or even the creation of commodity futures markets and option markets, we are talking about something as big as the invention of the printing press and then the turning in of Tally Sticks in exchange for stock certificates in the Bank of England at its founding in 1694.



I like this!  Smiley  Not just this post but the guy posting it of course.  Kiss It is nice that we "think alike" most of the time.  

I guess there is a saying, "Great minds think alike."  Perhaps that is true even in Bitcoin.

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March 31, 2014, 11:31:17 PM
 #1888

It's been a good run. I bid you all farewell. Even the perma bulls.

.... so you think this is the end for BTC?



No. It's the end of this forum. For me.

Reasoning?

If you don't draw charts each ten minutes, you're not good for TAers. I've never seen more boring bunch of people than them.

MatTheCat, TERA, MABtc... I'd rather work in construction than make loads of money in something that would make my life such a giantic piece of kink. I've never seen either of these three even trying to make a joke, post a smiley, anything... they are like fucking North Korean soldiers.

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March 31, 2014, 11:33:40 PM
 #1889

http://blog.cryptocurrencyconcepts.net/post/72894222386/the-bitcoin-bull-market

Quote
The peak-to-trough total return of Bitcoin on Bitstamp is precisely: 1,163,000% - this is the biggest bull-market on a CAGR basis in the history of financial markets.

DO NOT underestimate the upside surprise in cryptocurrency valutations, not on a single trading day of your participation in these markets. Also don’t underestimate downside volatility. Expect the unexpected, and expect cryptocurrency to envelop an increasing fraction of the global financial ecosystem. We are not talking about something as big as the IPO of Google, or even the creation of commodity futures markets and option markets, we are talking about something as big as the invention of the printing press and then the turning in of Tally Sticks in exchange for stock certificates in the Bank of England at its founding in 1694.



I like this!  Smiley  Not just this post but the guy posting it of course.  Kiss It is nice that we "think alike" most of the time.  

I guess there is a saying, "Great minds think alike."  Perhaps that is true even in Bitcoin.

I have a feeling he might like you too Wink . The two of you should get on with it and start making BitBabies ...

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March 31, 2014, 11:36:04 PM
 #1890

irl indecent proposal in 3... 2...

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
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March 31, 2014, 11:36:46 PM
 #1891

http://blog.cryptocurrencyconcepts.net/post/72894222386/the-bitcoin-bull-market

Quote
The peak-to-trough total return of Bitcoin on Bitstamp is precisely: 1,163,000% - this is the biggest bull-market on a CAGR basis in the history of financial markets.

DO NOT underestimate the upside surprise in cryptocurrency valutations, not on a single trading day of your participation in these markets. Also don’t underestimate downside volatility. Expect the unexpected, and expect cryptocurrency to envelop an increasing fraction of the global financial ecosystem. We are not talking about something as big as the IPO of Google, or even the creation of commodity futures markets and option markets, we are talking about something as big as the invention of the printing press and then the turning in of Tally Sticks in exchange for stock certificates in the Bank of England at its founding in 1694.



I like this!  Smiley  Not just this post but the guy posting it of course.  Kiss It is nice that we "think alike" most of the time.  

I guess there is a saying, "Great minds think alike."  Perhaps that is true even in Bitcoin.

I have a feeling he might like you too Wink . The two of you should get on with it and start making BitBabies ...

We already have two "BitBabies."  Wink  We have two "BitPuppies" too.   That is enough for now!  

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March 31, 2014, 11:38:22 PM
 #1892


We already have two "BitBabies."  Wink  We have two "BitPuppies" too.   That is enough for now! 


You do realize that BitBabies double in size every 100 days, doncha? ....

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March 31, 2014, 11:42:40 PM
 #1893


We already have two "BitBabies."  Wink  We have two "BitPuppies" too.   That is enough for now!  


You do realize that BitBabies double in size every 100 days, doncha? ....

That explains alot!  The BitBabies have been eating constantly! Wink

The BitPuppies need Bitcoin to succeed too.  They are the pickiest eaters.  The turn their noses up to dog food.  I think I spoiled them too much.

Sorry Risto if this thread is degenerating to pointless conversation.  As a women it is one of my talents. Wink  Maybe I am just trying to keep my mind off of the low price right now. Wink  

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March 31, 2014, 11:43:25 PM
 #1894

where's BitGrandma?  Grin Grin Grin

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April 01, 2014, 12:08:11 AM
 #1895

So Risto,  What are your feelings at the moment?  I assume now is a great time to buy.  When do you think the next rally will take place and what is your estimation on when we will reach the next ATH?  What do you think the next ATH will be?

I was thinking that I was surprised, yet again, that you were right about how the price was too high and that we would correct down to $400 or so. Yet here we are.  When do we just shut up and stop questioning you?  Wink

- I think it is much more probable (70%) that 400 will hold vs. not. Even if it goes lower, it does not change anything except that price is better for buyers and worse for sellers. There is still exactly the same number of bitcoins in the market and the viability of the technology is exactly the same.
- Yes, it is a great time to buy. If you are thinking of buying bitcoins, you should do it now. Even if you were not thinking, the price is good.
- The tribulation is likely over in a week, at most the sub-500 prices persist until past April 15 (tax sales). In the end of the month we are definitely over 500, probably about at 600.
- We are now at -0.3 log-units in the long term trendline. This situation will persist until the next uptrend launches. Note that the trendline ascends 23% per month and it drags the price up with it.
- After about 2-3 months, we are near 1000 and there is a hurdle to get over it. It succeeds and the rally is ignited, catapulting us to a new ATH of 3000-7000 in July-August. From taking the old ATH of 1163 to making the new, it is only 20-40 days.

Always happy to help Smiley

You just made my day.
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April 01, 2014, 12:15:02 AM
Last edit: April 01, 2014, 12:26:27 AM by aminorex
 #1896

Ultimately everything depends on whether stake size is correlated or anticorrelated with adoption lag and conversion rate keeping in mind that value is marginal rather than in stock

You seem to be misquoting me out of context for some reason.   Qabbalah?  Cargo cult?

Why I called it a misquote:  I was referring to discrimination between a log-logistic and a logistic adoption curve, rather than to "everything", and emphasized marginal flow rather than margin per se.  

I probably won't get to do the math this week.  Traveling on business.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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April 01, 2014, 01:54:34 AM
Last edit: April 01, 2014, 04:02:28 AM by AnonyMint
 #1897


Yes I am disputing it because it was state law versus the Constitution. And it was a change from the long standing hands off policy on all mail order that crossed state lines. Nobody took it seriously because they know the state is impotent and there was no tracking of everything back then. Certainly the states don't have the ability to track what is happening on the internet.

Also sales taxes are not personal income taxes. They are ad valorem. The only people that get prosecuted over sales taxes are the merchants, not the consumer.

And besides that was a long time ago and the USA has morphed significantly of recent.

You just got through explaining how people are idiots and don't understand anything.  Now you're saying they understand the finer points of constitutional law and taxes and penalties for not reporting.

I didn't say they understand finer points of Constitutional law (again and again you try to put words in my mouth to construct your strawman). I am saying they continued to do what they had been doing. I am saying that mail order shipped from out-of-state had always been tax free for all of us. All of us knew that.

The states tried a complex switcharoo wherein if Amazon had any presence in the state then goods shipped from out-of-state were subject to sales tax. They tried to claim this tax was on consumers, but the fact is all sales tax is paid by merchants not consumers. Always been that way.

And so people just continued doing what had always been. No need for them to understand anything.

Any more strawman arguments which deviate from the point at hand?


Quote
When someone says, make sure you file your Schedule D, they will say shit I don't need no Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not 1/100 as compelling as a currency as getting their goodies from Amazon. Your strawman you see.

That is as a currency. Now as a speculation for investment, those who are up for that won't be deterred by capital gains. They want capital gains. I was talking about the impact on the masses of this tax ruling and the effect it will have on sentiment being negative for while until something turns attention back to the "to the moon" theme that is Bitcoin entire reason to exist.

Well how compelling is it?  You seem to be boxing yourself in - it's compelling enough that having to pay CG tax will hurt its adoption, but not compelling enough for people to either track their purchases or ignore the IRS?

Are you really serious? You really think Bitcoin is compelling for the mass right now as a currency?

Looney.

Now you conflate two different market segments, the one are the masses who would need to use it daily as a currency and the other are the white males investing "to the moon".

I tend to lose patience with those who repeatedly conflate and waste my time.


Quote
Instead of ad hominem useless comment how about actually telling me why you are qualified?

I actually made software for the mainsteam (1 million of them twice) and supported them over the phone and email.

If you want to put me on ignore, just do it. What is this fucking political BS every time you disagree with my right to express my thoughts?

The software issue is you don't understand how even what seems simple to you, is not simple for the masses. That is why I asked what kind of experience you have in the industry.

The software "issue" is just you trying to argue from authority and hoping no one else sees through it.

I am arguing from experience.

When I have to report capital gains, do you think I record all that stuff myself?  No.  I go to turbotax.com, type in the name of my brokerage and credentials and it imports it all for me.  Software.  There's nothing fundamentally different about bitcoin that it can't be reported the same way.

I have never been able to get my brokerage to interopt with H&R Block and never was worth the time to figure out. That you figured out how to get interoption is great for you, but fact is there is a huge amount of Murphy's Law involved and this won't scale.

One of Steve Jobs favorite analysis and putdowns to very smart people was, "that won't scale". I know because my former genius boss says Steve did it to him.

Interoperation friction destroys scaling.

Average people (who generally have a pretty simple tax return) either do something like that, or they just fudge it.  In the appropriate 1040 box, they'll just make up some bullshit number that's close enough.  Millions of people do that every year, nobody goes to jail because it's small potatoes.  The IRS might have an agenda to destroy bitcoin, but they do not give a crap about a few bucks on low income tax returns.

If the masses have a compelling need to use Bitcoin as a currency or end up with a lot of gains unexpectedly, they will deal with it some how and one way is as you say.

However, masses don't have a compelling need to use Bitcoin and the tax issue (in the USA) adds another reason for them (masses in the USA) to stay away. The rumor will spread virally, "you need to do a Schedule D to use Bitcoin". Since most people don't know what a Schedule D is and since using Bitcoin is something they aren't already doing, they will tend to avoid it. That is unless some very compelling reason comes along that entices them to use Bitcoin in spite of this rumor (and the other weaknesses of Bitcoin I enumerated quoted as follows)

You are asking people to change all the ways they think about money:

  • Money is now taxable.
  • Money takes 10 minutes to an hour to spend.
  • Credit cards can lose their balances.
  • Credit cards have no refunds nor consumer protection.

People don't change even one thing easily, much less such a laundry list, unless there is some amazing compelling reason for them to.

Rather you are taking the position that masses won't care at all about the tax implication and will willfully ignore it and it won't affect their nexus of thought about Bitcoin.

Again those investing "to the moon" are not affected. Please don't conflate the two market segments.

P.S. Isn't there a  $600 exclusion for reporting on bartering? I need to look into that.

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AnonyMint
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April 01, 2014, 02:13:36 AM
 #1898

I believe you are too preoccupied with USD. The feedback loop of (lower USD price -> less users -> even lower price) has never before held true with Bitcoin, and I have no reason to believe it would now.

What about 2011?

In between 7-11/2011, the number of non-dust addresses grew by 30%.

Even if we assume that there is such a negative feedback loop, 2011 was a proof that it was reversed and did not self-immolate.

So far we have one vicious bear market that was reversed, and 5 years of gains. My theory is that Bitcoin has a self-reinforcing positive loop which will eventually consume fiat totally, and all the bear markets are temporary. If you say otherwise, the burden of proof is on you because such an assertion is not supported by neither history nor reason.

Strawmen avoid the points made.

1. Why can't a "vicious bear market" repeat? You admitted before that the 2011 bear market was caused by tech geeks early adopters who overextended because they are poor at speculation. Recently we've had a huge influx of n00bs into Bitcoin investing.

2. Who is arguing that Bitcoin won't continue to go up (i.e. "self-immolate") after the bottom? Not me.

3. What proof do you have that Bitcoin is different from every investment in the history of mankind, in that all investments are limited to a market segment and eventually peaked without reaching every man and woman on earth? You do no market demographics analysis. You just assume that Bitcoin will jump the chasm even though it currently lacks a compelling feature set to do so.

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April 01, 2014, 02:19:06 AM
 #1899

However, masses don't have a compelling need to use Bitcoin and the tax issue adds another reason for them to stay away. The rumor will spread virally, "you need to do a Schedule D to use Bitcoin".

People will slowly realize that the tax issue is NOT a good reason to stay away. All across America, there will be thousands of conversations in the coming years just like this one:

Jim: Does the IRS reaaaaaallllly give a shit whether I do a Schedule D? Surely I can just fudge it, right?

Bob: You could probably fudge it if you only used it like once or twice for small purchases, or if you held it during a period when bitcoin value didn't go up a lot. The IRS really won't give a shit unless you made a significant amount of money on your bitcoin holdings.

Jim: And you're telling me that's a bad thing?

Bob: It sucks. My cousin Billy-Bob earned $50,000 in bitcoin capital gains last year and only got to keep something like $40,000.

Jim: What's so bad about that?

Bob: He like, had to fill out a Schedule D, man.

Jim: So you're saying it's worth it to give up $40,000 so you can avoid filling out a Schedule D?

Bob: Exactly.

Jim: You're mom and dad were first cousins, weren't they? .....

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April 01, 2014, 02:27:27 AM
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Even if you are correct the US isn't the only country in the world.

I don't know to what extent tax issues (if at all) will affect European masses in adopting Bitcoin. I lack domain knowledge of those jurisdictions.

Capital gains tax is a non-issue in the developing world (masses here don't files tax returns). Yet they also are not currently the target demographic of Bitcoin.

The other issues I enumerated (look 2 posts up) should prevent Bitcoin from adoption of the masses for use as a daily currency every where on earth. Whether those issues will be fixed and whether they will be fixed in Bitcoin, offchain services, and/or an altcoin, is something that remains to be seen.

Right now Bitcoin is mainly adopted as a self-reinforcing (i.e. those who invest are supporting the rise in price, i.e. a sort of pyramid scheme of sorts but not entirely) speculative investment and some genuine use as a means to transfer value over distance. Also there are cases where one needs to use Bitcoin, e.g. buying drugs over the internet, registering domains anonymously (if you are very careful), etc.. Mostly Bitcoin is used to speculate in Bitcoin and altcoins. It is an investment unit-of-exchange. But none of that is really widespread mainstream use. I am still searching for that compelling need for the broader population.

One of the big needs I expect is when the confiscations begin, there will be a rush into crypto-currencies. Yet I expect an anonymous coin will get most of that, if that anonymous coin is respected and well established and is competing very strongly with Bitcoin (i.e. perhaps 1/10 or more of Bitcoin's market cap). Otherwise Bitcoin will get most of it.

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