Bitcoin Forum
July 18, 2018, 07:09:18 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.16.1  [Torrent]. (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 ... 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 [96] 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 ... 363 »
  Print  
Author Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)  (Read 904405 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic.
sgbett
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1638
Merit: 1014



View Profile
March 31, 2014, 11:36:04 PM
 #1901

irl indecent proposal in 3... 2...

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
http://haschinabannedbitcoin.com
1531940958
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1531940958

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1531940958
Reply with quote  #2

1531940958
Report to moderator
1531940958
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1531940958

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1531940958
Reply with quote  #2

1531940958
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
BitChick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001


View Profile
March 31, 2014, 11:36:46 PM
 #1902

http://blog.cryptocurrencyconcepts.net/post/72894222386/the-bitcoin-bull-market

Quote
The peak-to-trough total return of Bitcoin on Bitstamp is precisely: 1,163,000% - this is the biggest bull-market on a CAGR basis in the history of financial markets.

DO NOT underestimate the upside surprise in cryptocurrency valutations, not on a single trading day of your participation in these markets. Also don’t underestimate downside volatility. Expect the unexpected, and expect cryptocurrency to envelop an increasing fraction of the global financial ecosystem. We are not talking about something as big as the IPO of Google, or even the creation of commodity futures markets and option markets, we are talking about something as big as the invention of the printing press and then the turning in of Tally Sticks in exchange for stock certificates in the Bank of England at its founding in 1694.



I like this!  Smiley  Not just this post but the guy posting it of course.  Kiss It is nice that we "think alike" most of the time.  

I guess there is a saying, "Great minds think alike."  Perhaps that is true even in Bitcoin.

I have a feeling he might like you too Wink . The two of you should get on with it and start making BitBabies ...

We already have two "BitBabies."  Wink  We have two "BitPuppies" too.   That is enough for now!  

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
BTCtrader71
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Activity: 781
Merit: 1000



View Profile
March 31, 2014, 11:38:22 PM
 #1903


We already have two "BitBabies."  Wink  We have two "BitPuppies" too.   That is enough for now! 


You do realize that BitBabies double in size every 100 days, doncha? ....

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
BitChick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001


View Profile
March 31, 2014, 11:42:40 PM
 #1904


We already have two "BitBabies."  Wink  We have two "BitPuppies" too.   That is enough for now!  


You do realize that BitBabies double in size every 100 days, doncha? ....

That explains alot!  The BitBabies have been eating constantly! Wink

The BitPuppies need Bitcoin to succeed too.  They are the pickiest eaters.  The turn their noses up to dog food.  I think I spoiled them too much.

Sorry Risto if this thread is degenerating to pointless conversation.  As a women it is one of my talents. Wink  Maybe I am just trying to keep my mind off of the low price right now. Wink  

1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
akujin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 336
Merit: 250


View Profile
March 31, 2014, 11:43:25 PM
 #1905

where's BitGrandma?  Grin Grin Grin

BTC: 165rKPfGJ3ndrG1QziHR6ACnViP4EQHNK7
LTC: LMysGMFjmF9gR9RzStij74msXrDP1NqW8X
DOGE: DRZXGgcKN8kANwko3VycsBVVGqfy6XsSpM
Siegfried
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 266
Merit: 250


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 12:08:11 AM
 #1906

So Risto,  What are your feelings at the moment?  I assume now is a great time to buy.  When do you think the next rally will take place and what is your estimation on when we will reach the next ATH?  What do you think the next ATH will be?

I was thinking that I was surprised, yet again, that you were right about how the price was too high and that we would correct down to $400 or so. Yet here we are.  When do we just shut up and stop questioning you?  Wink

- I think it is much more probable (70%) that 400 will hold vs. not. Even if it goes lower, it does not change anything except that price is better for buyers and worse for sellers. There is still exactly the same number of bitcoins in the market and the viability of the technology is exactly the same.
- Yes, it is a great time to buy. If you are thinking of buying bitcoins, you should do it now. Even if you were not thinking, the price is good.
- The tribulation is likely over in a week, at most the sub-500 prices persist until past April 15 (tax sales). In the end of the month we are definitely over 500, probably about at 600.
- We are now at -0.3 log-units in the long term trendline. This situation will persist until the next uptrend launches. Note that the trendline ascends 23% per month and it drags the price up with it.
- After about 2-3 months, we are near 1000 and there is a hurdle to get over it. It succeeds and the rally is ignited, catapulting us to a new ATH of 3000-7000 in July-August. From taking the old ATH of 1163 to making the new, it is only 20-40 days.

Always happy to help Smiley

You just made my day.
aminorex
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1498
Merit: 1025


Sine secretum non libertas


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 12:15:02 AM
 #1907

Ultimately everything depends on whether stake size is correlated or anticorrelated with adoption lag and conversion rate keeping in mind that value is marginal rather than in stock

You seem to be misquoting me out of context for some reason.   Qabbalah?  Cargo cult?

Why I called it a misquote:  I was referring to discrimination between a log-logistic and a logistic adoption curve, rather than to "everything", and emphasized marginal flow rather than margin per se.  

I probably won't get to do the math this week.  Traveling on business.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
AnonyMint
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 01:54:34 AM
 #1908


Yes I am disputing it because it was state law versus the Constitution. And it was a change from the long standing hands off policy on all mail order that crossed state lines. Nobody took it seriously because they know the state is impotent and there was no tracking of everything back then. Certainly the states don't have the ability to track what is happening on the internet.

Also sales taxes are not personal income taxes. They are ad valorem. The only people that get prosecuted over sales taxes are the merchants, not the consumer.

And besides that was a long time ago and the USA has morphed significantly of recent.

You just got through explaining how people are idiots and don't understand anything.  Now you're saying they understand the finer points of constitutional law and taxes and penalties for not reporting.

I didn't say they understand finer points of Constitutional law (again and again you try to put words in my mouth to construct your strawman). I am saying they continued to do what they had been doing. I am saying that mail order shipped from out-of-state had always been tax free for all of us. All of us knew that.

The states tried a complex switcharoo wherein if Amazon had any presence in the state then goods shipped from out-of-state were subject to sales tax. They tried to claim this tax was on consumers, but the fact is all sales tax is paid by merchants not consumers. Always been that way.

And so people just continued doing what had always been. No need for them to understand anything.

Any more strawman arguments which deviate from the point at hand?


Quote
When someone says, make sure you file your Schedule D, they will say shit I don't need no Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not 1/100 as compelling as a currency as getting their goodies from Amazon. Your strawman you see.

That is as a currency. Now as a speculation for investment, those who are up for that won't be deterred by capital gains. They want capital gains. I was talking about the impact on the masses of this tax ruling and the effect it will have on sentiment being negative for while until something turns attention back to the "to the moon" theme that is Bitcoin entire reason to exist.

Well how compelling is it?  You seem to be boxing yourself in - it's compelling enough that having to pay CG tax will hurt its adoption, but not compelling enough for people to either track their purchases or ignore the IRS?

Are you really serious? You really think Bitcoin is compelling for the mass right now as a currency?

Looney.

Now you conflate two different market segments, the one are the masses who would need to use it daily as a currency and the other are the white males investing "to the moon".

I tend to lose patience with those who repeatedly conflate and waste my time.


Quote
Instead of ad hominem useless comment how about actually telling me why you are qualified?

I actually made software for the mainsteam (1 million of them twice) and supported them over the phone and email.

If you want to put me on ignore, just do it. What is this fucking political BS every time you disagree with my right to express my thoughts?

The software issue is you don't understand how even what seems simple to you, is not simple for the masses. That is why I asked what kind of experience you have in the industry.

The software "issue" is just you trying to argue from authority and hoping no one else sees through it.

I am arguing from experience.

When I have to report capital gains, do you think I record all that stuff myself?  No.  I go to turbotax.com, type in the name of my brokerage and credentials and it imports it all for me.  Software.  There's nothing fundamentally different about bitcoin that it can't be reported the same way.

I have never been able to get my brokerage to interopt with H&R Block and never was worth the time to figure out. That you figured out how to get interoption is great for you, but fact is there is a huge amount of Murphy's Law involved and this won't scale.

One of Steve Jobs favorite analysis and putdowns to very smart people was, "that won't scale". I know because my former genius boss says Steve did it to him.

Interoperation friction destroys scaling.

Average people (who generally have a pretty simple tax return) either do something like that, or they just fudge it.  In the appropriate 1040 box, they'll just make up some bullshit number that's close enough.  Millions of people do that every year, nobody goes to jail because it's small potatoes.  The IRS might have an agenda to destroy bitcoin, but they do not give a crap about a few bucks on low income tax returns.

If the masses have a compelling need to use Bitcoin as a currency or end up with a lot of gains unexpectedly, they will deal with it some how and one way is as you say.

However, masses don't have a compelling need to use Bitcoin and the tax issue (in the USA) adds another reason for them (masses in the USA) to stay away. The rumor will spread virally, "you need to do a Schedule D to use Bitcoin". Since most people don't know what a Schedule D is and since using Bitcoin is something they aren't already doing, they will tend to avoid it. That is unless some very compelling reason comes along that entices them to use Bitcoin in spite of this rumor (and the other weaknesses of Bitcoin I enumerated quoted as follows)

You are asking people to change all the ways they think about money:

  • Money is now taxable.
  • Money takes 10 minutes to an hour to spend.
  • Credit cards can lose their balances.
  • Credit cards have no refunds nor consumer protection.

People don't change even one thing easily, much less such a laundry list, unless there is some amazing compelling reason for them to.

Rather you are taking the position that masses won't care at all about the tax implication and will willfully ignore it and it won't affect their nexus of thought about Bitcoin.

Again those investing "to the moon" are not affected. Please don't conflate the two market segments.

P.S. Isn't there a  $600 exclusion for reporting on bartering? I need to look into that.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
AnonyMint
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 02:13:36 AM
 #1909

I believe you are too preoccupied with USD. The feedback loop of (lower USD price -> less users -> even lower price) has never before held true with Bitcoin, and I have no reason to believe it would now.

What about 2011?

In between 7-11/2011, the number of non-dust addresses grew by 30%.

Even if we assume that there is such a negative feedback loop, 2011 was a proof that it was reversed and did not self-immolate.

So far we have one vicious bear market that was reversed, and 5 years of gains. My theory is that Bitcoin has a self-reinforcing positive loop which will eventually consume fiat totally, and all the bear markets are temporary. If you say otherwise, the burden of proof is on you because such an assertion is not supported by neither history nor reason.

Strawmen avoid the points made.

1. Why can't a "vicious bear market" repeat? You admitted before that the 2011 bear market was caused by tech geeks early adopters who overextended because they are poor at speculation. Recently we've had a huge influx of n00bs into Bitcoin investing.

2. Who is arguing that Bitcoin won't continue to go up (i.e. "self-immolate") after the bottom? Not me.

3. What proof do you have that Bitcoin is different from every investment in the history of mankind, in that all investments are limited to a market segment and eventually peaked without reaching every man and woman on earth? You do no market demographics analysis. You just assume that Bitcoin will jump the chasm even though it currently lacks a compelling feature set to do so.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
BTCtrader71
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Activity: 781
Merit: 1000



View Profile
April 01, 2014, 02:19:06 AM
 #1910

However, masses don't have a compelling need to use Bitcoin and the tax issue adds another reason for them to stay away. The rumor will spread virally, "you need to do a Schedule D to use Bitcoin".

People will slowly realize that the tax issue is NOT a good reason to stay away. All across America, there will be thousands of conversations in the coming years just like this one:

Jim: Does the IRS reaaaaaallllly give a shit whether I do a Schedule D? Surely I can just fudge it, right?

Bob: You could probably fudge it if you only used it like once or twice for small purchases, or if you held it during a period when bitcoin value didn't go up a lot. The IRS really won't give a shit unless you made a significant amount of money on your bitcoin holdings.

Jim: And you're telling me that's a bad thing?

Bob: It sucks. My cousin Billy-Bob earned $50,000 in bitcoin capital gains last year and only got to keep something like $40,000.

Jim: What's so bad about that?

Bob: He like, had to fill out a Schedule D, man.

Jim: So you're saying it's worth it to give up $40,000 so you can avoid filling out a Schedule D?

Bob: Exactly.

Jim: You're mom and dad were first cousins, weren't they? .....

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
AnonyMint
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 02:27:27 AM
 #1911

Even if you are correct the US isn't the only country in the world.

I don't know to what extent tax issues (if at all) will affect European masses in adopting Bitcoin. I lack domain knowledge of those jurisdictions.

Capital gains tax is a non-issue in the developing world (masses here don't files tax returns). Yet they also are not currently the target demographic of Bitcoin.

The other issues I enumerated (look 2 posts up) should prevent Bitcoin from adoption of the masses for use as a daily currency every where on earth. Whether those issues will be fixed and whether they will be fixed in Bitcoin, offchain services, and/or an altcoin, is something that remains to be seen.

Right now Bitcoin is mainly adopted as a self-reinforcing (i.e. those who invest are supporting the rise in price, i.e. a sort of pyramid scheme of sorts but not entirely) speculative investment and some genuine use as a means to transfer value over distance. Also there are cases where one needs to use Bitcoin, e.g. buying drugs over the internet, registering domains anonymously (if you are very careful), etc.. Mostly Bitcoin is used to speculate in Bitcoin and altcoins. It is an investment unit-of-exchange. But none of that is really widespread mainstream use. I am still searching for that compelling need for the broader population.

One of the big needs I expect is when the confiscations begin, there will be a rush into crypto-currencies. Yet I expect an anonymous coin will get most of that, if that anonymous coin is respected and well established and is competing very strongly with Bitcoin (i.e. perhaps 1/10 or more of Bitcoin's market cap). Otherwise Bitcoin will get most of it.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
AnonyMint
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 02:37:28 AM
 #1912

However, masses don't have a compelling need to use Bitcoin and the tax issue adds another reason for them to stay away. The rumor will spread virally, "you need to do a Schedule D to use Bitcoin".

People will slowly realize that the tax issue is NOT a good reason to stay away. All across America, there will be thousands of conversations in the coming years just like this one:

Jim: Does the IRS reaaaaaallllly give a shit whether I do a Schedule D? Surely I can just fudge it, right?

Bob: You could probably fudge it if you only used it like once or twice for small purchases,

Why did the USA expend in inordinate resources to make high profile cases of teenagers innocently downloading a few songs using Napster?

Please don't ignore the question.

The reason is because the government didn't want the population to be free of copyright law slavery.

Do you really think the government is going to give up its control over money?

Your mindset is based around things that don't challenge the government's control. Indeed the government will look the other way when their control isn't threatened. Even the guy who runs the FinCEN said in recent interview, they will regulate much more strongly if Bitcoin is used by most of the population.


or if you held it during a period when bitcoin value didn't go up a lot. The IRS really won't give a shit unless you made a significant amount of money on your bitcoin holdings.

Jim: And you're telling me that's a bad thing?

Bob: It sucks. My cousin Billy-Bob earned $50,000 in bitcoin capital gains last year and only got to keep something like $40,000.

You are conflating the market segment of speculators with the market segment of masses. You continue make this critical error.

You assume that the masses love to speculate. And you assume that Bitcoin is always going up. Hey right now what the masses see is Bitcoin is going down.

Masses are afraid of volatile speculations. They come it at the end, to lose everything.

I do agree the Bitcoin could end up being a huge pyramid ponzi bubble as more and more get sucked into the intoxicating rise, with no fundamental compelling use as a currency. Smart traders will sell when it can be overhead at birthday parties amongst the mothers that they are buying Bitcoin "to the moon". We've seen this before in history of man.

Jim: What's so bad about that?

Bob: He like, had to fill out a Schedule D, man.

Jim: So you're saying it's worth it to give up $40,000 so you can avoid filling out a Schedule D?

Bob: Exactly.

Jim: You're mom and dad were first cousins, weren't they? .....

Now you are just being a dick. Is that really necessary to insult in order to discuss?

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
BTCtrader71
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Activity: 781
Merit: 1000



View Profile
April 01, 2014, 02:38:12 AM
 #1913

One of the big needs I expect is when the confiscations begin, there will be a rush into crypto-currencies.

Early bitcoin enthusiasts appreciated this (the threat of confiscations in particular, or totalitarian governments in more general terms) from day 1.

The more totalitarian governments also appreciate this; they see bitcoin as a threat for this reason, and so they move against bitcoin sooner rather than later.

The less totalitarian governments (I include the US here) have no immediate plans to do any crazy-ass confiscations. But, if and when they decide to borrow a page from FDR ... it will be too late. Bitcoin will be entrenched.

Most people won't appreciate all of this until it hits them over the head, at which time they will make Satoshi a saint.

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
seleme
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 1001



View Profile
April 01, 2014, 02:48:53 AM
 #1914

EMunie will be anonymous.

▄█▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█▄
▄█▀▄███████████▄▀█▄
▄█▀▄███████████████▄▀█▄
▄█▀▄███████ ██ ████████▄▀█▄
█ ███████▄▄ ▌ ▄▄▄ ▀██████ █
█ █████████ ▌ ████ ██████ █
█ █████████ ▌ ▄▄▄▄ ▀█████ █
█ █████████ ▌ █████ █████ █
█ █████▄▀▀  ▌ ▀▀▀▀ ▄█████ █
▀█▄▀███████ ██ ████████▀▄█▀
▀█▄▀███████████████▀▄█▀
▀█▄▀███████████▀▄█▀
▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▀
.JINBI..

merges gold’s investment
holding value
with
blockchain technology
.
...T H E   G O L D E N   I C O...
.────────     WHITEPAPER     ────────.
▄█▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█▄
▄█▀▄███████████▄▀█▄
▄█▀▄███████████████▄▀█▄
▄█▀▄███████ ██ ████████▄▀█▄
█ ███████▄▄ ▌ ▄▄▄ ▀██████ █
█ █████████ ▌ ████ ██████ █
█ █████████ ▌ ▄▄▄▄ ▀█████ █
█ █████████ ▌ █████ █████ █
█ █████▄▀▀  ▌ ▀▀▀▀ ▄█████ █
▀█▄▀███████ ██ ████████▀▄█▀
▀█▄▀███████████████▀▄█▀
▀█▄▀███████████▀▄█▀
▀█▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█▀
AnonyMint
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 02:50:29 AM
 #1915

An anonymous coin would be great. Be sure to note it here when you find someone(s) to launch it.  A well thought out alt could grow very quickly compared to bitcoin. The market is ready established, and crypto-funded.

Note that the developer of Darkcoin admitted to me yesterday that I was correct and Darkcoin breaks anonymity by trusting the master node with your identity.

I provided him a suggestion, but it is not my best idea of how to do anonymity (which requires a different design than Darkcoin has).

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
AnonyMint
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 02:52:52 AM
 #1916

EMunie will be anonymous.

hahaha.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
BTCtrader71
Hero Member
*****
Online Online

Activity: 781
Merit: 1000



View Profile
April 01, 2014, 03:00:04 AM
 #1917


Please don't ignore the question.

...

Do you really think the government is going to give up its control over money?

I think this is a very good question, and I think the answer is no, they will not give up control over money. At least, not on purpose. So in my mind the question becomes: does the government regard cryptocurrencies as a threat to their control over money? A few years ago I might have predicted yes, but recently I have been leaning more towards no, based on less-than-hostile comments from various people like Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, Alan Greenspan. Arguably, Greenspan doesn't get it and is not able to judge whether it's a threat. The other two are probably in a better position. My most recent thinking is that the rise of fall of the US dollar will depend on lots of things, but bitcoin is not as high on that list as early enthusiasts (like me) used to think. In an ideal world, bitcoin will not topple the central banking system, something else will; and when that happens, bitcoin will save us all from chaos. I am sure my thinking on this question will continue to evolve.

Your mindset is based around things that don't challenge the government's control. Indeed the government will look the other way when their control isn't threatened. Even the guy who runs the FinCEN said in recent interview, they will regulate much more strongly if Bitcoin is used by most of the population.

My current thinking (again, this is likely to evolve as time goes on) is that by the time they decide to regulate bitcoin, it will be too late.

Jim: What's so bad about that?

Bob: He like, had to fill out a Schedule D, man.

Jim: So you're saying it's worth it to give up $40,000 so you can avoid filling out a Schedule D?

Bob: Exactly.

Jim: You're mom and dad were first cousins, weren't they? .....

Now you are just being a dick.

Having been born south of the Mason-Dixon line, I meant only to make fun of myself. My apologies if I offended ...

BTC: 14oTcy1DNEXbcYjzPBpRWV11ZafWxNP8EU
AnonyMint
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 03:02:38 AM
 #1918

The less totalitarian governments (I include the US here) have no immediate plans to do any crazy-ass confiscations. But, if and when they decide to borrow a page from FDR ... it will be too late. Bitcoin will be entrenched.

The head of the USA Treasury department that oversees FinCEN has said in recent interview (have a link to it on my thread) they are monitoring adoption very closely. He specifically said that government oversight will increase if it becomes possible to move large amounts of money with Bitcoin and/or you can live by spending only Bitcoin. And that was only the financial crimes division. He said other departments were watching it with other mandates. This will not fly past their radar. He specifically mentioned anonymity as a threat many times. He also said they have people tracking the block chain.

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
creekbore
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 210
Merit: 100

Lazy, cynical and insolent since 1968


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 03:03:33 AM
 #1919


Allow me to an express a view on the factual points you raised, creekbore:

I'm talking about the fact that the news, satire programs, newspapers, magazines etc ridicule BTC.

All press is good press.  Just wait until the next wave of pedophiles and terrorists.

Quote
I talk to people about BTC and they think I'm a crank.

Always true of the vanguard.  It means there's a lot of upside.

Quote
The IRS statement,

Good news.  Institutional money would not touch it until there was tax clarity.

Quote
China's slow strangulation of BTC,

Admittedly painful, but to be expected, and not in any way fatal.

Quote
Gox,

That's over.

Quote
the FUD surrounding NeoBee

NeoBee is rather minor.  Cyprus?  Noise.

Quote
The bid/sum ratio is dreadful, you can't dispute the numbers

Bids 50% out from the book can't be taken seriously.

Quote
You bring up adoption metrics but I actually raised this issue -- most of the data available through blockchain suggest adoption is going very poorly.  But instead lets focus on a single set of data (increased BTC addresses) ...but I use a new address for withdrawals and deposits everytime I do a BTC tx.  I suspect many do the same, so this data is meaningless.  No-one comments on this.

You are mistaken regarding which number I deem significant.  New addresses is not significant.  The number of active addresses during a rolling window is the best representation available for the size of the commerce network.  The only other number which reflects this vigor is the value transferred, again, during a rolling window.

Quote
Instead I get a page of n^p x p>x means everything is OK. 

It is what it is.  Whether it is OK or not is very subjective.  You might enjoy a benzodiazepine.  Not too much now.  It will make you feel things are a bit more OK.

Price can do many things, but it can't deviate from fundamental value for too long, or there is arbitrage.

Thanks for getting back Am.  Bit peeved Risto can't be arsed given he claims I have 'an agenda'....bloody senior management Wink

Re. PR....that's a kind of old fashioned belief (any publicity is good publicity) I think audiences are more sophisicated in some respects, more receptive to brainwashing in others.  The message from the MSM is pretty simple - if you go near BTC you will lose money.  We can speculate about media ownership, editorial freedom etc but lets not fool ourselves into thinking the Gox publicity is good for BTC.

Re. "there's always an upside" ...loving it but come on. 

RE. IRS...as always you are bullish.  But Anony and others seem to disagree with you on this (I'm not American and haven't got a clue about your kafaesque tax system but most comments I see tend to be negative).

Cyprus...noise?  Yeah, I guess Europe is nothing...its where you guys fight wars.  It's only the worlds first bricks and mortar BTC bank....fuck it, irrelevant.

Bid/sum....well sure....when the numbers don't agree with my world view...ignore them...I tell my bank manager the same about my mortgage.

Re. addresses...well this is good...if I am mistaken, great but thus far it makes little sense to me (eg how do you know if an address is active from the data we were discussing and define a rolling window).  If I make a new address to send a few satoshis to exchange one and then forward them to a new address, multiplied a few times multiplied by thusands of old time users how does this equate to 'increased adoption.'

I could accept this if all the other charts backed this up....but they don't (eg number of tx has remained pretty much constant over the last 12 months).  Infact, the only chart that shows any sort of positive increase is...surprise, surprise, the one we should embrace.

It does seem that data is being cherry picked to fit an opinion rather than an opinion being formed from data.

I dislike benzos but thanks for the offer...you seem to think something is 'wrong' with me for not accepting your opinion hook, line and sinker.  I'm neither bullish nor bearish, simply curious about those of either party who take an extreme stance.


"Markets always move in the direction to hurt the most investors." AnonyMint
"Market depth is meaningless" AdamstgBit
AnonyMint
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518
Merit: 500


View Profile
April 01, 2014, 03:12:47 AM
 #1920

RE. IRS...as always you are bullish.  But Anony and others seem to disagree with you on this (I'm not American and haven't got a clue about your kafaesque tax system but most comments I see tend to be negative).

IRS ruling is bullish because the investors now know the rules.

It is bearish only in the sense that the masses are not coming any time soon into Bitcoin, so this can deflate some of the near-term overextension by n00b investors who were expecting the masses to come tomorrow. Just another factor to cause weak hands to lose hodl when the price drop below $400 scares them.


Re. addresses...well this is good...if I am mistaken, great but thus far it makes little sense to me (eg how do you know if an address is active from the data we were discussing and define a rolling window).  If I make a new address to send a few satoshis to exchange one and then forward them to a new address, multiplied a few times multiplied by thusands of old time users how does this equate to 'increased adoption.'

I could accept this if all the other charts backed this up....but they don't (eg number of tx has remained pretty much constant over the last 12 months).  Infact, the only chart that shows any sort of positive increase is...surprise, surprise, the one we should embrace.

The correlation of n^2 == p is undeniable from Peter R's upthread chart.

Rather n appears to be 50% higher than baseline adoption at 100,000 (if you accept my TA notion that baseline is the linear projection of the bottoms on the log 10 chart). Thus the lack of transactions expansion could support my idea that n will come down to 100,000 so that the recent divergence between n^2 and p is corrected (instead of p rising to resolve the divergence).

Then we bottom and upwards "to the moon" from there (until the next bubble overextension and correction).

unheresy.com - Prodigiously Elucidating the Profoundly ObtuseTHIS FORUM ACCOUNT IS NO LONGER ACTIVE
Pages: « 1 ... 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 [96] 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 ... 363 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!