Downtrend started?

[segeln]

It is going up again:

[1714061385]

1714061385

[1714061385]

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[oda.krell]

I didn't say I'm not bearish Just that I still disagree with your analysis. You continue looking at a time frame of the latest uptrend (the one that started at around Christmas), and then show (correctly, as I would say) that this trend broke. But then your conclusion is actually much larger than that: you say your outlook "for a few weeks" is bearish. I don't know how you would come to that conclusion, unless you add a large dose of EW axioms (which I am extremely skeptical about).

[dnaleor]

At bitstamp, the trend is definitely broken. Check this 4h chart


But gox is still struggeling. We will enter a bearish fase for a couple of weeks if that happens.

[segeln]

not yet

[MatTheCat]

not yet

God.

U would redraw that line everytime.

We are 20% from the high of 48 hours ago. Seems like a bit of a downtrend to me, or is 20% underwater in 2 days simply 'consolidating'?

[oda.krell]

dnaleor, come on man, work with me here

I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?

[bambou]

dnaleor, come on man, work with me here

I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?

nothing very TA there, but i would assume that increasing impatience would be some kind of an indicator. I mean, reaching 1200$ in only 1 month and trying to consolidate the month after must have led to some more speculators being impatient for the next wave. Hence they would be more sensible to downward variation in price as the euphoria from last rally is calming down: bear market here we go.

one thing interesting would be to measure the speculation forum's traffic to figure when people are getting impatient/agitated?!

[T.Stuart]

dnaleor, come on man, work with me here

I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?

+1  Be brave man!! No reason to fear a two week bear market with all this bouyant weightlessness!  

[dnaleor]

dnaleor, come on man, work with me here

I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?

just a "gut feeling", no TA:

I just think we went towards 1000 usd too fast (even for bitcoin).
There was only 5 days with BTC price above 1000 USD in the "china bubble" (excluding gox here, because who wants to cash out there anyway?). That is not enough time for triggering people cashing out. As a result, we saw the crash. Some people regret that they were too greedy and did not cash out above 1000 USD. So when 1000 USD is approached again, people tend to sell.

We need slow growth to have less volatility. I was certain the recent uptrend would trigger some volatility so decided to watch the market closely when we approched 900+ USD.

I am a longterm bull and do not want to cash out. I believe in a world with BTC as main currency. But sometimes, it is not bad to keep some distance from your investment and "feel the market". I only trade the "large trends" and this was an opportunity I took.

PS: I never sell during a rally with new ATHs, because it is very unpredictable how high the top will be.
PPS: When I sell, I want to buy more BTC. I do not want to have my profit in dirty fiat.

[segeln]

U would redraw that line everytime.

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a  beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend

[Wilhelm]

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. 

[damiano]

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. 

At this point we have heard the worst China has to say.  There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.

[T.Stuart]

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. 

At this point we have heard the worst China has to say.  There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.

+1 - there is a lot coming now and to come and this is why the price is so bouyant - market sentiment is actually good!

[arepo]

U would redraw that line everytime.

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a  beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend

i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

also, @ roeland, trading on "gut feeling" is a terrible idea that will yield results worse than chance. you will end up lagging sentiment instead of leading it and will be pick-pocketed by every better trader.

[dnaleor]

U would redraw that line everytime.

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a  beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend

(...)

After the april bubble and crash and rebounce uptrend, there was no bad news either. We just slided down from 180 USD to 65 USD in a couple of months. I do not think such a large downtrend will happen due to the fact that we have more media exposure and users, but a small one, yes, that is a real possibility...

[segeln]

i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

so you think  News  like

FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid

or

USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges

won`t affect Prices?
Not really,or?

[arepo]

i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

so you think  News  like

FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid

or

USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges

won`t affect Prices?
Not really,or?

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".

[Wilhelm]

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China.  

At this point we have heard the worst China has to say.  There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.

+1 - there is a lot coming now and to come and this is why the price is so bouyant - market sentiment is actually good!

I truely believe in bitcoin and much good stuff is coming. Hope that no other countries adopt the Chinese way of enforcing bitcoin.
Bitcoin is resilient enough to survive and keep on going as long as the internet is not censured. Bitcoin keeps recovering from these "glitches" which proves that bitcoin is really good.

Well I'm in for atleast 3 years of Hodling and gathering more. Either I make it big or I lose trying

[segeln]

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".

That`s rabulistic or hair-splitting

[nastybit]

i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.

so you think  News  like

FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid

or

USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges

won`t affect Prices?
Not really,or?

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".

first option: it does, because the market cannot absorb it, the rest will panic sell

second option: it does, my estimate is beyond $1...