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bansal
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September 01, 2011, 01:12:05 AM
 #61

Ok I shouldn't say it's zero, but negligible, not much higher than zero.  I especially objected to you using 20%, etc.  You're talking a fraction of a percent, so it's actually not all that useful to talk about.  Nice try though.
Not useful? How about you post the first 13 digits of your 16 digit credit card number. That means I'd have a 1 in 1000 chance (.1%) to guess your credit card number. Care to try me?
Sorry I don't use credit cards only bitcoins...  Why don't you go ahead and attack the chain with whatever GPUs you have, you got a shot after all...
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September 01, 2011, 01:14:05 AM
 #62

Ok I shouldn't say it's zero, but negligible, not much higher than zero.  I especially objected to you using 20%, etc.  You're talking a fraction of a percent, so it's actually not all that useful to talk about.  Nice try though.
Not useful? How about you post the first 13 digits of your 16 digit credit card number. That means I'd have a 1 in 1000 chance (.1%) to guess your credit card number. Care to try me?
[/quote]

4120 1337 8008!

"MOOOOOOOM! SOME MYTHICAL WOLFBEAST GUY IS MAKING FUN OF ME ON THE INTERNET!!!!"
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September 01, 2011, 01:33:03 AM
 #63

You might be correct that varience has a near-zero effect for lower-confirmation transactions, but still remember that shorter block times give less varience.
Shorter block times means the attacker can make more attempts.

So someone with 49% has a near-zero, close enough to zero, chance. The actual probability of getting 7 blocks in a row is less than 0.6% for a 49% holder. The actual probability is smaller, because you aren't rolling an infinite amount of dies.
Think it can't happen? I had to search long and hard to find a real example. I had to go all the way back to...today.

Bitcoin network right now: 12.224 Thash/s
Deepbit network right now: 5282 Gh/s

How many block can deepbit get in a row with 43% hashpower? Blocks 143334 - 143341 are deepbit blocks. Deepbit just solved 8 blocks in a row with only 43% hashpower. I'm sure if someone analyzed the blockchain we'd find even longer runs of deepbit-only blocks.

Variance = someone with <51% can successfully attack the blockchain.
Faster block target speeds = more chances to attack = weaker security.
And? This means deepbit must be CONSTANTLY trying to double-spend. It would be wasting a lot of money doing that! Faster block target speeds = less varience, and more oppertunities also means more money lost for the attacker. It's a waste of time faking blocks - better just fork the blockchain (which is a problem for faster-time blocks, since more natural forks for the attacker to "cancer node" exploit are possible.)
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September 01, 2011, 01:42:16 AM
 #64

We should have an "Obvious attempts at false market rumors" subforum and move these posts there.

Mod +1 Insightful  Tongue

"From a small seed a mighty trunk may grow." -Aeschylus
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