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Author Topic: So, nobody really gives a crap?  (Read 5474 times)
gentlemand
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January 09, 2014, 04:43:17 AM
 #21

Nope. We'll see measures from governments that we never dared imagine if Bitcoin threatened to upend government control.

The libertarian whackjobs who think it's going to destroy government control over money are living in cloud cuckoo land. They slaughter hundreds of thousands to get access to oil or enforce an ideology. Money is countless orders of magnitude more potent.

Bitcoin still has the power to change the world in more subtle ways that'll steadily benefit everyone if it's allowed to thrive as an asset class and basis for economic innovation. It doesn't have to be an all or nothing deal if people are realistic.

It absolutely would survive if all governments tried to eradicate it but the world deserves to make use of it out in the open.

Big holders will dump at the end of the month. Not because Bitcoin will die but because there'll be an absolute shit ton of money to be made from those who'll be waiting to work themselves into a pointless panic and sell low. Get your buys ready.

2014 will blow minds like never before. There'll be some terrible news. There'll be even more absolutely amazing news.

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BTCalexxx2.0
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January 09, 2014, 04:45:39 AM
 #22

One more thing from my side for tonight before I meet my pillow.

Take a look at the 3-days interval chart on bitcoinwisdom.com and you will see a well-known bubble pattern that is just about to enter it's final stage.

3-2-1 BOOOOM... So, my prediction is that BTC will drop 50-80% somewhen this month. And I doubt it will ever recover from that. GLOBALLY.

Well, let's just hope for the best while preparing for the worst.

Cheers
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January 09, 2014, 04:53:45 AM
 #23

Big holders will dump at the end of the month. Not because Bitcoin will die but because there'll be an absolute shit ton of money to be made from those who'll be waiting to work themselves into a pointless panic and sell low. Get your buys ready.

2014 will blow minds like never before. There'll be some terrible news. There'll be even more absolutely amazing news.

I agree. And I am also not about dropping the bitcoin for good, but for now I sleep far better with my worthless fiat money.

Really looking forward.
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January 09, 2014, 05:09:06 AM
 #24

It's still in its absolute infancy. You should be stoked that you're here to witness it.


I most definitely am stoked Wink

Obviously, I also agree on Bitcoin being in an very early stage. But isn't that the best time for the establishment to bring it down? Teaching the people that only their currencies are safe while drying out organized crime at the same time seems like a good move right now!? I mean they shot Kennedy as soon as he was printing some United States Dollar notes.
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January 09, 2014, 05:13:57 AM
 #25

It's still in its absolute infancy. You should be stoked that you're here to witness it.


I most definitely am stoked Wink

Obviously, I also agree on Bitcoin being in an very early stage. But isn't that the best time for the establishment to bring it down? Teaching the people that only their currencies are safe while drying out organized crime at the same time seems like a good move right now!?
"The establishment" in the west is positive or neutral. It's only china that is trying to get rid of it (india something something, not big enough to matter at present). The next month could very well be interesting. But once china is over and dealt with, things should return to normal. Another month maybe.

Actually, china might be trying to ban it inside their borders specifically so the US can't some day say "here is a few bits of code, our debt is now settled".

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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January 09, 2014, 05:47:39 AM
 #26

Sovereigns are all going to blow up anyhow.  Fiat won't be worth anything in 2017.  I could be wrong about the date, but I can't be wrong about the blow-up.  It's a mathematical certainty.  2017 is my best estimate for a global sovereign crisis that makes us all Cypriots Greeks and Argentines.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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January 09, 2014, 05:51:41 AM
 #27

Sovereigns are all going to blow up anyhow.  Fiat won't be worth anything in 2017.  I could be wrong about the date, but I can't be wrong about the blow-up.  It's a mathematical certainty.  2017 is my best estimate for a global sovereign crisis that makes us all Cypriots Greeks and Argentines.

2020 more likely. But yes, exactly that.

Look inside yourself, and you will see that you are the bubble.
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January 09, 2014, 06:14:19 AM
Last edit: January 09, 2014, 06:27:15 AM by BTCalexxx2.0
 #28

Sovereigns are all going to blow up anyhow.  Fiat won't be worth anything in 2017.  I could be wrong about the date, but I can't be wrong about the blow-up.  It's a mathematical certainty.  2017 is my best estimate for a global sovereign crisis that makes us all Cypriots Greeks and Argentines.


100% d'accord. 2017 is also a pretty good guess I bet. I mean the whole thing is done already, but the people will need some more time to realize what deep shit they have driven us into. Too sad that it most likely will be too late for the majority. At least, they finally won't have any other choice, but feeling the heat when already burning.
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January 09, 2014, 06:25:56 AM
 #29

Exactly! And I can see only one reason for that. Trapping even more capital before they finally blow up the whole thing.

I mean let's be honest, do you really think Bitcoin can just mess with Central Banks and their "god-given" right to issue currency and simply get away with it? I don't think so.

Gentlemen, you're being trolled. 

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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January 09, 2014, 06:38:06 AM
 #30

China 31st Deadline: All third party processors must cease Bitcoin-related transactions.

One day after this was announced, Chinese government went and forced all third party processors to halt business immediately.  You can no longer deposit money on Chinese exchanges with a third party payment processor.  Not entirely sure if withdrawals were removed yet, if not, they should be removed on the 31st.  This has little impact, since all exchanges still operating have found alternate ways to add/withdraw money.

As for exchanges still operating:

- BTC China: Using voucher system, majority of business was going through Taobao.  This seems to be on the way out.  Unclear whether the voucher system will remain possible through alternative payment methods.

- Huobi, FXBTC, ChBTC, BTCTrade: Volume leaders by a mile currently.  BTC China is all but forgotten.  These exchanges use direct bank card payment, avoiding the need for any third party payment processor.  The ban has no effect on this payment method.

Any further moves by Chinese gov't have no relationship with the deadline.  The future is uncertain, but the "deadline" is irrelevant.  That's the scary part.  We never know when the Chinese government could strike next.  Could be today, next week, next month, next year.  I'd say never, but, never say never.

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January 09, 2014, 07:07:34 AM
 #31

Any further moves by Chinese gov't have no relationship with the deadline.  The future is uncertain, but the "deadline" is irrelevant.

Hm. Interesting point of view. However, I cannot see the Chinese Government being fooled by some smart-ass coin traders who think they could go on doing business as usual with vouchers or direct deposits. I mean, this is fucking China. Moreover, I understand the deadline more like closing down ALL bitcoin related businesses and not only the deposit methods. Please correct me in case I got that wrong.

Cheers
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January 09, 2014, 07:42:46 AM
 #32

And yes, nobody really gives a crap.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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January 09, 2014, 08:14:29 AM
 #33

Any further moves by Chinese gov't have no relationship with the deadline.  The future is uncertain, but the "deadline" is irrelevant.

Hm. Interesting point of view. However, I cannot see the Chinese Government being fooled by some smart-ass coin traders who think they could go on doing business as usual with vouchers or direct deposits. I mean, this is fucking China. Moreover, I understand the deadline more like closing down ALL bitcoin related businesses and not only the deposit methods. Please correct me in case I got that wrong.

Cheers

China never announced it was shutting down all bitcoin business.  You will not find anything which supports this statement.  They specifically said that Bitcoin was being treated as a commodity, and therefore is currently legal to trade.

The method Huobi and other exchanges are using for deposit is direct bank transfer to the owner.  The question here is: Did these exchanges receive permission from the government to conduct business in this fashion?  At first, I figured the answer to this question was likely "no".  This seems to be the most sensible response.

However, at this point it is no longer clear.  Huobi has been operating with bank card deposit since Dec 20th.  This are over 20 days of really high volumes, and in plain view.  If what they were doing was illegal, or the government perceived it to be, why hasn't it been stopped?  One thing we have noticed recently is China's quickness to act.  One day after posting a Jan 31 deadline for third party payment processors, they came in and forced them off exchanges immediately.

It would be just as easy for them to come in and yank the cord on bank card transfer.  Close + freeze all the CEO's bank accounts (which are extremely easy to find, I could get their bank information myself if I wanted to), and post a warning to exchanges that any further use of bank card deposit will have legal repercussions.  Boom, bank card deposit is gone, basically permanently.  This also prevents the price being run up based on Chinese volume, which the government has cautioned against.

So, I believe if their current intention was to end all exchanges, it would be done.  Make no mistake, bank card deposit is essentially the final frontier for Chinese exchanges.  Without bank card deposit, and third party payment processors banned, there is no way to electronically fund an exchange.  If this happens, assume that Chinese exchanges are dead.

Right now I am leaning towards believing that China has met privately with these exchanges, and given the go-ahead.  However, it's also very possible that these exchanges have gone ahead without government approval.  There was certainly no explicit endorsement of their practices.  It's all up in the air right now.  But once again, it has nothing to do with the deadline.


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January 09, 2014, 09:10:53 AM
Last edit: January 09, 2014, 09:52:10 AM by BTCalexxx2.0
 #34

Yeah, very good points there, R2P. And you raised the very essential question WHY they did not stop them, yet(?).

There could be several reasons for that, but I guess it just doesn't make too much sense to speculate at this point. What I certainly believe though is that they will shut those alternatives down by January 31st. I mean their intention is obvious. They do not want CNY being traded for BTC, because the coins then can be used as a tool to export LOTS of Chinese money/capital which is basically illegal, or better said restricted/controlled, in China (as far as I know).  Therefore, it would only be consequent to stop ANY possible method. Otherwise, it would be a proper surprise.

We'll see Wink
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January 09, 2014, 10:04:08 AM
 #35

One perhaps slightly sensational idea might be that the Chinese government are themselves investing in bitcoin and levering their position to manipulate the value for gains. If you were an entity with the ability to knock 50% off the value of a commodity, then on a whim double the value back up again (ie, you're the Chinese government with the world watching you to decide on speculations), this is what you'd do.

This is why when some above have said "the government aren't that stupid, these remaining exchanges have their days numbered", maybe they have allowed them to continue trading because they don't want to destroy bitcoin, rather play with its price for gains/further understanding of the market and the demographics of its users.
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January 09, 2014, 10:35:27 AM
 #36

Governments can threaten all they like and pass laws against Bitcoin but the fact is the only way they're going to kill Bitcoin is by killing off the internet as well and that would piss off too many people, that's why people don't care, plus the Chinese hysteria was pretty fake, you can still trade Bitcoins as individuals for paper money just not exchanges and financial companies.

It's the same thing where a fake post about the Thailand central bank panicked people who didn't know anything and it managed to scare people with big holdings in Bitcoin.
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January 09, 2014, 01:23:38 PM
Last edit: January 09, 2014, 01:38:39 PM by yomofo
 #37

One perhaps slightly sensational idea might be that the Chinese government are themselves investing in bitcoin and levering their position to manipulate the value for gains. If you were an entity with the ability to knock 50% off the value of a commodity, then on a whim double the value back up again (ie, you're the Chinese government with the world watching you to decide on speculations), this is what you'd do.

This is why when some above have said "the government aren't that stupid, these remaining exchanges have their days numbered", maybe they have allowed them to continue trading because they don't want to destroy bitcoin, rather play with its price for gains/further understanding of the market and the demographics of its users.

that is an absurd idea.  there is NO govt that is investing in bitcoin directly.  what the most totalitarian major power that is known to control every facet of their citizen's lives just decides to invest in bitcoin.  bitcoin is designed for decentralization and to give power to the people, it's users.  makes no sense.


Yeah, very good points there, R2P. And you raised the very essential question WHY they did not stop them, yet(?).

There could be several reasons for that, but I guess it just doesn't make too much sense to speculate at this point. What I certainly believe though is that they will shut those alternatives down by January 31st. I mean their intention is obvious. They do not want CNY being traded for BTC, because the coins then can be used as a tool to export LOTS of Chinese money/capital which is basically illegal, or better said restricted/controlled, in China (as far as I know).  Therefore, it would only be consequent to stop ANY possible method. Otherwise, it would be a proper surprise.

We'll see Wink

it's also the first week of the new year since the holidays.  the Taobao ban is not in effect until the 14th, next tuesday.  i believe that china will crush the huobi bitcoin exchange for their defiance of authority.  the ceo publicly stated that he believed bitcoin does not fall under financial regulation.  it's like he's telling the govt to fuck off.

the legality in america isn't for sure either.  http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2014/01/stampact/

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January 09, 2014, 01:50:53 PM
 #38

One perhaps slightly sensational idea might be that the Chinese government are themselves investing in bitcoin and levering their position to manipulate the value for gains. If you were an entity with the ability to knock 50% off the value of a commodity, then on a whim double the value back up again (ie, you're the Chinese government with the world watching you to decide on speculations), this is what you'd do.

This is why when some above have said "the government aren't that stupid, these remaining exchanges have their days numbered", maybe they have allowed them to continue trading because they don't want to destroy bitcoin, rather play with its price for gains/further understanding of the market and the demographics of its users.

Not sure "sensational" is the word I would use for that idea Wink
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January 09, 2014, 03:52:24 PM
 #39

One perhaps slightly sensational idea might be that the Chinese government are themselves investing in bitcoin and levering their position to manipulate the value for gains. If you were an entity with the ability to knock 50% off the value of a commodity, then on a whim double the value back up again (ie, you're the Chinese government with the world watching you to decide on speculations), this is what you'd do.


I also think that this is pretty absurd.

Besides, is BTCChina already dead? I never have seen such ridiculously low orders.
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January 09, 2014, 04:00:10 PM
 #40

One perhaps slightly sensational idea might be that the Chinese government are themselves investing in bitcoin and levering their position to manipulate the value for gains. If you were an entity with the ability to knock 50% off the value of a commodity, then on a whim double the value back up again (ie, you're the Chinese government with the world watching you to decide on speculations), this is what you'd do.


I also think that this is pretty absurd.

Besides, is BTCChina already dead? I never have seen such ridiculously low orders.

Absurd...really? China is buying all btc...

BTCChina is #1

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