seeking wisdom to make future predictions.

[naglis]

yey. i think im posting in rite section =)

STILL WRITEING THIS THING..

since im not economy doctor i have problems sorting out some things, and even if i try to read, i need some1 to translate what i read to english.

first of all. ASICS is dead thing as i managed to calculate? in thegenesisblock calculator it says if i get ANY miner it wont payback its price. it leads manufacturers to make more powerfull miners, like 100TH (which, if u get on december, wont pay back either). so:

what hash power manufacturers will reach? as i understand its low possibility they will use something smaller than 28nm technologies, which as i saw was 500GH/s per chip. so will they make ASICS with 50 chips?.. (huge stuff..) so, they need something new, or they will stop at certain hash power. predictions?

what will happen if manufacturers quit making mashines? using all what ppl has now, dificulty lvl will increase lil slower than now?


difficulty.
it increases every 2016 blocks. and 1 block must be mined every 600 seconds.
are those 600 seconds final? and EVERY single block in those 2016 will take 600 seconds each to be mined?
if i add 1MTH/s to all mining power what will happen? ill get most of blocks but it will still take 600 sec to mine them?
maybe after new dificultie lvl is adjusted, it takes 600 seconds for 1st block, and rest is mined depending on hash power?


i know its kinda messy, but its much mucm more mixed in my head. hopefully with your answers ill be able to ask more acurate questions.
 

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[ineedit]

....ASICS is dead thing as i managed to calculate?

...
it increases every 2016 blocks. and 1 block must be mined every 600 seconds. are those 600 seconds final?
....

If you have to ask your second question then I suspect that the calculation that you made as part of your first question is wrong.

Difficulty is re-calculated every 2016 blocks to give a new difficulty. That new difficulty is used from that point on and is calculated to allow a block to be solved every 600 seconds. It is a self adjusting mechanism but is only correct when it is calculated as it is impossible to know how many new miners are being added and how many old miners have been removed or stopped working.

As miners get faster and more numerous so the difficulty increases but at some point this will level because at some point the money being earned will  not warrant the cost of the miner and the electricity to power it, so miners less miners will be brought and more will be removed or not replaced when they stop.

You can buy miners now whilst the difficulty is rising fast, buy at some point in the future or just but bitcoin to invest. Each is a valid proposition but there is no magic 8 ball to tell you which one to choose, you have to workout what is effective for you and balance that against the risk that you are willing to take with your money.

One thing is certain though, if you are not in the you risk nothing but also gain nothing.

[ScaryHash]

Here you go. http://bitcoinwisdom.com/

bitcoinwisdom

[naglis]

Difficulty is re-calculated every 2016 blocks to give a new difficulty. That new difficulty is used from that point on and is calculated to allow a block to be solved every 600 seconds. It is a self adjusting mechanism but is only correct when it is calculated

so to be sure, if i add like 10MTH mining power ill be able to mine those 2016 blocks in no time? and as i read dificulty rising has its limits, it cant go lets say 10 times in one rise. how many % it can rise for next 2016 blocks?

[Puppet]

It cant go up by more then 300% at a time IIRC.