Why 9-month payoffs are still foolish

[AngelusWebDesign]

Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.

Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.

So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.

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[xunker]

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

By the same token, no one can refute "Bitcoin could be at $30 in a few months!" since both statements rely on subjective and selective data.

This is a gamble, pure and simple, and anyone who thinks they have a "foolproof system" is the one who's going to be hurting soon.  Play this like any other market -- take profit when you can, don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

There is a second gamble here, though:  the VLIW design could change for worse or for better, like you said.  Consider this: if the 7000-series changes in such a way that they emulate NVidia's approach (better actual D3D/OGL performance at the cost of lower hashing performance) then the 69xx cards you now have start to go UP in resale value, since it becomes known that there won't be anything in the near term to replace them.  This is, again, a gamble, you are betting that the future will turn out one way or the other.

[johnj]

I'm pretty sure AMD is aware that their card is the choice pick of mining.  I doubt that AMD is going to give up that part of the market with sub-par numbers. Sure mining isn't their focus, but they're aware that it brings them money.

Edit:  This is why I try to make sure any investments can pay for themselves within 2 months.  If BTC crashes in the first usually the 30 day return will still be in effect.  If BTC crashes in the second, at least I've made half my investment back.

But I'm not a major rig operator or anything.

[AngelusWebDesign]

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

By the same token, no one can refute "Bitcoin could be at $30 in a few months!" since both statements rely on subjective and selective data.

This is a gamble, pure and simple, and anyone who thinks they have a "foolproof system" is the one who's going to be hurting soon.  Play this like any other market -- take profit when you can, don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

There is a second gamble here, though:  the VLIW design could change for worse or for better, like you said.  Consider this: if the 7000-series changes in such a way that they emulate NVidia's approach (better actual D3D/OGL performance at the cost of lower hashing performance) then the 69xx cards you now have start to go UP in resale value, since it becomes known that there won't be anything in the near term to replace them.  This is, again, a gamble, you are betting that the future will turn out one way or the other.

You're right that it TECHNICALLY could go either way -- but it would take a Black Swan event to bring Bitcoin into the $20s, whereas the trend right now is $1 less every couple weeks.

So betting it will go lower is not "equal" with betting it will go higher. There is more evidence for the former.

Regarding the video cards -- you're right. That's why I said "wait and see" rather than go one way or the other. I'm sure there will be 6990s for sale even after the 7000 series is released (or definitively described) to the public.

[bcpokey]

The people who think that AMD gives two flying craps about bitcoin are just not in the right headspace, pure and simple. I really wish there was an FAQ posted somewhere about how the bitcoin numbers represent essentially nothing to AMD. Literally, nothing. It doesn't bring them one cent.

THe 7000 series is still completely under wraps by AMD, except for mobility series, which as I recall was a tiny improvement over the 6000 series, with its 28nm fab process, and certainly not something at all related to mining.

As for the main topic the OP posted, as it has been since you started all this a few months ago, no one really knows what will happen. It's been a wild ride up and down; will it continue to trend down, maybe, or up, who knows? All investments are inherently risky. The ones with greater payoffs are almost always riskier. Warn people about that, fine. Make grandiose statements with no backing but supposition and/or fear mongering...  


Edit: Some further thoughts -- There is no real release date for the 7000 series cards, whatever they are. Powercolor suggests Q1 2012, so potentially a release as far as 7 months in the future, or more if there is a delay (almost the 9 months the OP is suggesting people not buy into). The cards when first released will carry with them the huge premium markup that all new releases have, so do not expect to see some balls-out radeon 7000 for $100 with a billion stream processors ready to hash at 5THash/sec. Furthermore, AMD is switching to a newer more sophisticated stream processor, why would they then double the amount? Or if they did double the amount, why would you expect them for anywhere near the same price as we see on 5xxx series cards. Furthermore we to my knowledge do not know how the VLIW-4D cores hash, since they are more complex, with likely more instructions for things that actually matter in a graphics card, such as tessellation, directx, streaming large amounts of data, not so much useful for mining.

[johnj]

The people who think that AMD gives two flying craps about bitcoin are just not in the right headspace, pure and simple. I really wish there was an FAQ posted somewhere about how the bitcoin numbers represent essentially nothing to AMD. Literally, nothing. It doesn't bring them one cent.

AMD may not care about BITCOIN, but they're not run by dummies.  5870's which were released *two years ago* are still selling at premium prices, even used. 5770's are only $40 less than 6870's.  Newegg has tons of refurbished/open box Nvidia cards while ATI/AMD get snapped up within moments.

Granted these are only observations from a newbie, but I'd be hard pressed to think that AMD isn't aware of the impact mining is having on their sales.

[bcpokey]

The people who think that AMD gives two flying craps about bitcoin are just not in the right headspace, pure and simple. I really wish there was an FAQ posted somewhere about how the bitcoin numbers represent essentially nothing to AMD. Literally, nothing. It doesn't bring them one cent.

AMD may not care about BITCOIN, but they're not run by dummies.  5870's which were released *two years ago* are still selling at premium prices, even used. 5770's are only $40 less than 6870's.  Newegg has tons of refurbished/open box Nvidia cards while ATI/AMD get snapped up within moments.

Granted these are only observations from a newbie, but I'd be hard pressed to think that AMD isn't aware of the impact mining is having on their sales.

For (hopefully) the last time, AMD doesn't fab any 5xxx gpus anymore. They're done, they were done years ago, they're not going to start again, hence they make $0 off sales of 5xxx series cards. Why then do they care about bitcoin selling cards used at high prices?

AMD is a multi-billion dollar company, with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars going into each fab line, they're ABSOLUTELY NOT going to cater to a tiny cluster of renegade miners who use their cards just fine as they already stand in comparison to the millions of paying gaming customers. Just deal with that.

[johnj]

For (hopefully) the last time, AMD doesn't fab any 5xxx gpus anymore. They're done, they were done years ago, they're not going to start again, hence they make $0 off sales of 5xxx series cards. Why then do they care about bitcoin selling cards used at high prices?

AMD is a multi-billion dollar company, with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars going into each fab line, they're ABSOLUTELY NOT going to cater to a tiny cluster of renegade miners who use their cards just fine as they already stand in comparison to the millions of paying gaming customers. Just deal with that.

Of course they aren't going to *cater* to mining.  That'd be foolish.  It'd also be foolish of them not to see 'Hey, WHY are those 5x series still selling for so much?".  AMD is a multi-billion dollar company.  And they pay their execs tons of money to get as much marketshare/profit as possible.  Bitcoin mining is a part of that.

[bcpokey]

For (hopefully) the last time, AMD doesn't fab any 5xxx gpus anymore. They're done, they were done years ago, they're not going to start again, hence they make $0 off sales of 5xxx series cards. Why then do they care about bitcoin selling cards used at high prices?

AMD is a multi-billion dollar company, with tens or hundreds of millions of dollars going into each fab line, they're ABSOLUTELY NOT going to cater to a tiny cluster of renegade miners who use their cards just fine as they already stand in comparison to the millions of paying gaming customers. Just deal with that.

Of course they aren't going to *cater* to mining.  That'd be foolish.  It'd also be foolish of them not to see 'Hey, WHY are those 5x series still selling for so much?".  AMD is a multi-billion dollar company.  And they pay their execs tons of money to get as much marketshare/profit as possible.  Bitcoin mining is a part of that.

No it isn't. It seriously just isn't. You don't seem to understand the process so I'll try to simplify it for you. ATI designs and fabricates incredibly complex processors, this costs millions of dollars, it then designs a rich and incredibly intricate architecture to utilize those processors, which costs millions more, producing a "reference board". It produces just those things, then sells off millions of processors and licenses the reference design to manufacturers like sapphire, xfx whoever to produce the cards for retail sale. So when you buy a sapphire 5870 from Electronics-Store #1, or jimbob off the street for $500, AMD doesn't care because it's not selling to you, it's selling to sapphire who sells to the store who sells to you.

So what influences AMD? Marketshare, but share of what market? The gaming market, that has millions of cloying customers wanting the fastest most powerful GPU they can get their hands on, to run the shiniest newest game at the fastest speed possible. AMD is competing directly with NVidia and they need every last bit of their muscle to streamline for this aspect, to keep up with, and maybe even slightly outdo their competition. Any sideline would need to be VERY lucrative to even cause them for one second to give side attention.

There are at best 30-40,000 miners if you look at the numbers, and > 10million gamers. That represents less than one half of one percent of the market for video cards. No one gives a crap about that market segment. Seriously, we've had this discussion a lot before, bitcoin is cool, but lift your head up from the tunnel vision of bitcoin and you'll see how insignificant it is in the scheme of any kind of market share.

[wndrbr3d]

I'm pretty sure AMD is aware that their card is the choice pick of mining.  I doubt that AMD is going to give up that part of the market with sub-par numbers. Sure mining isn't their focus, but they're aware that it brings them money.

I'm fairly certain there are many, many, many more Gamers/Consumers out there using AMD cards for Gaming than people using them for mining. So I don't buy that AMD gives two squirts of piss about Bitcoin mining. For AMD to remain competitive against nVidia, they need to focus on Gaming First, and GPGPU second.

If anything, it'd behoove them to focus on gaming with the 7xxx series so schmucks like us can buy up the remaining backstock of 68xx and 69xx series cards.

[STP]

Without mining 6990's could be had on almost any site. You can talk about the 5xxx series all you want but AMD is aware why they are sold out and its not due to gamers or new system builds. They built enough for that demand. It was the mining that pushed them beyond what they planned or they would have produced more. We may be a small community but many of us hold many of these cards and you divide that up we a large enough community to monitor.

I am still building rigs 9 months or 2 months or 18 months to pay off. What ever. I use my rigs profits to reinvest which I am sure many others do as well. About the only way to counter the difficulty until recently and worst case if this folds I own some decent hardware for resale or for the next big thing or fork that needs hashing power. I also did not even get into this until mid June. I had owned 2x5990 since June of 2010 but did not know about it, looking back sucks as what could have been!!! Anyhow. I work IT as many of you all do. This is fun and I have an excuse to build a new server room, hide from the wife   and play with Linux all while making a $ or two. Don't think many like me are not out there. Of course if this thread is just intended to scare peeps from getting in good luck with that.

[ElectricMucus]

(40 nm /28 nm )^2 = 2.04081633

This is the theoretical maximal gain of the smaller feature size of the 7XXX series cards.

However the practical gain is much smaller for various reasons.

The first and simplest one is that the errors in the silicon do not decrease as much as the feature size so that the chip manufacturer has to cut smaller chips out the waver to reach the optimum yield. This factor is normally around the golden ratio for every feature size enhancement. So we would get the following factor:
2.04081633/phi = 1.26129386

Another factor is that with every generation the manpower required to design the chips increases so later chip generations make less effective use of the available transistors. This will more apparent in the future and it the major counter-effect of moores law. What it means before we would reach the cheapest possible physical transistor the people needed to design chips with them would exceed the mass of the earth.

[johnj]

I don't know if its true, but I've always heard that 80% of profits come from 20% of customers. Each 'miner' accounts for anywhere from 1-100's 'gamers'.  The mining community may be small people wise, but these people will fight over buying 20x of your highest end card.  The miners who know what their worth is as far as bitcoin goes will set the resale value which is also a huge asset to milk.  A higher resale value means more people will purchase it new because its a sounder investment.

[teflone]

Wrong...

Bitcoin has had a huge impact on availible AMD GPUs..

Plain and simple

ask any local major computer store.. 

[Brunic]

AMD got themselves a completely new market where they own the place at 100%. It was a pure accident, but it is the situation at the moment. If this business is managed correctly, they are probably studying this new market right now.

Sure, you're not going to see "Radeon 7000, only for mining" in store next week, but they are probably working on their marketing research right now. Well, I hope they have a good management. If they ignore this market, some competitors is going to see it and will try to get it.

If the network is at 13 000 000 MHash/s, and let's say that we take the Radeon 6770 sold at around 120$ for 200 MHash/s, you have a new market of around 7.8 millions dollars who just appeared from nowhere. And AMD probably owns 90% of this market right now, a market that appeared just 3 months ago. I really have a hard time that AMD is ignoring completely this market.

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

We call that taking a risk, and that's usually what business owners does when they start a business. Either you take a risk, either you play safe. Waiting for the risk to become safe is also called "missing an opportunity".

[bcpokey]

AMD got themselves a completely new market where they own the place at 100%. It was a pure accident, but it is the situation at the moment. If this business is managed correctly, they are probably studying this new market right now.

Sure, you're not going to see "Radeon 7000, only for mining" in store next week, but they are probably working on their marketing research right now. Well, I hope they have a good management. If they ignore this market, some competitors is going to see it and will try to get it.

If the network is at 13 000 000 MHash/s, and let's say that we take the Radeon 6770 sold at around 120$ for 200 MHash/s, you have a new market of around 7.8 millions dollars who just appeared from nowhere. And AMD probably owns 90% of this market right now, a market that appeared just 3 months ago. I really have a hard time that AMD is ignoring completely this market.

I'll reply to you since you seem the most rational of this bunch, you're assuming that this market is both easily differentiable from the gaming market easily to GPU manufacturers, and and that the market is as expandable as the gaming market, both of which I do not believe are true.

The network is at 13,000,000 MHash/sec, for your numbers to be workable, that means you would need for the mining world to be willing to add another 13Mil MHash/sec at the same pricing point. Unlike gamers, who are happy to throw away their old cards in order to upgrade to newer shinier cards to run newer games, there is no similar incentive for the mining community. In fact, quite the opposite, increasing hash rate means a disincentive to invest further into the market (as people see their profits diminish from new purchases).

Not to mention there is absolutely no competition to AMD. There are only 2 GPU producers right now, because the barrier to entry into such a refined production structure is too high for anyone to reasonably enter right now. Certainly far far higher than $8million. Look at FPGAs/ASICs, why aren't they taking over? You can take already created chips, program them specifically to hash SHA2, with little to no onboard memory, and a power consumption that is almost nil, making them far superior to GPUs. But because the cost to develop such a platform would be in the tens of millions of dollars, it's not attractive enough to anyone to do it. What makes AMD, a company who makes literally billions of dollars off GPU sales more willing to take such a risk on such a paltry return then?

[Syke]

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?

Just like the 6990 has more stream processors than the 5970? Oh, wait, it doesn't.

Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring?

Nope. All we can do is analyze how previous generations progressed, and extrapolate from there. From the 5000 to 6000 brought about...no change in mining capability. It's highly unlikely the 7000 will be any different. AMD designed it long ago, long before Bitcoin was as big as it is now.

[johnj]

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?

Just like the 6990 has more stream processors than the 5970? Oh, wait, it doesn't.

Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring?

Nope. All we can do is analyze how previous generations progressed, and extrapolate from there. From the 5000 to 6000 brought about...no change in mining capability. It's highly unlikely the 7000 will be any different. AMD designed it long ago, long before Bitcoin was as big as it is now.

That's because both the 5x and the 6x are on 40nm thingamaboppers.  The 7x are gonna be on 28nm thingamaboppers.  The extra space can/is going to be used for stream processors.

[CanaryInTheMine]

Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.

Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.

So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.

When are you gonna stop discouraging people from mining and/or increasing theu hash rates by bringing online new cards?

Your posts are so predictable and very consistent!

[Brunic]

I'll reply to you since you seem the most rational of this bunch

Thanks!  

, you're assuming that this market is both easily differentiable from the gaming market easily to GPU manufacturers, and and that the market is as expandable as the gaming market, both of which I do not believe are true.

[...]

What makes AMD, a company who makes literally billions of dollars off GPU sales more willing to take such a risk on such a paltry return then?

You have great points, and I agree with almost everything you say. In this current situation, it doesn't make sense for AMD to invest in that type of market. Rationally, it's not something they should do as graduate from university.

The thing is, the current needs of mining are a perfect case of disruption in the chipset market. Everything is set for a low-profile maker to build a good chipset for hashing and take this market. For a multi-million business, it doesn't seems interesting, but it should be a priority to take that market. Right now, we have those FPGA boards, where if enough research is made, could take the place of those GPU. A serious business who could inject a couple thousand of dollars in research for those boards could bring a disruptive product in the Bitcoin mining market.

Yeah, the market isn't that big right now. But a few months ago, the market was inexistant. What mining is going to be next year? The more there is miners, the more the network is secured. And the easier it is to mine, the easier it is to put Bitcoin in the hands of more people. If you can develop an easy miner equipment for the average joe, who's happy to get a few cents of Bitcoin every week to spend online, you're going to see that BTC value jump higher than 30$.

AMD already have a considerable advantage in this market. I just hope they don't diss the Bitcoin market, like those telegrams businesses were laughing at the telephone when it was introduced or like Sony did when it dominated the video game market and completely ignored Nintendo with their Wii.

Anyway, I see this as a perfect opportunity for a chipset manufacturer to introduce itself in an emergeant market with a lot of needs. If AMD isn't able to seize the opportunity, it's too bad for them.

[TeaL]

Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.

Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.

So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.

Speaking as the owner of 2 6990s, I'd like to point out that no matter the power of the 7XXX series cards, the rigs we have still retain value.

For example; lets say the 7XXX series cards come out, and they do have 2* the stream processor count. This should mean they are more expensive than the previous generation (because of these improvements). With the 6990 topping $700, I would find it hard to see anyone other than extreme enthusiasts buying these cards. This is one of the two problems for the new 7XXX series of cards.

With this cost, it's very unlikely most pre-built manufacturers (everyone from ibuypower & newegg types, to HP and DELL) would see these cards as a viable option for their machines.
The second problem is the bulk purchase of the older generation of cards. When a large manufacturer like HP, or DELL etc.. Build a line of computers they buy / order the items in bulk. This means they can only afford to integrate the latest and greatest into their lines very slowly, especially when the cost is so high.

This means for a decent amount of time the old 6XXX series of cards are still the best you can get without huge financing & building it yourself. The effect of this is that I can still sell my computer for a more than reasonable price even after the 7XXX series has been released, because no-one will be able to; afford / get them in a pre-built.

[Departure]

shipments increased to 140 million units, up 22 million units from this quarter last year.

Thats in 1 quarter for AMD, How many miners again? and you still think mining has an impact? lol wake up son there is a bigger world out there than your back yard....

[NetTecture]

lets say the 7XXX series cards come out, and they do have 2* the stream processor count. This should mean they are more expensive than the previous generation (because of these improvements).

Yeah, because this is what happened in the past.

Dude, the WHOLE idea of the 7xxx series for ATI is to offer more power for the same cost. Due to the die shrink the plan is pack more than double the stream processors, at a higher frequency rate on top, into the same silicon.

No, it wont be twice as expensive, and it will an immediate have an impact on the old hardware prices when it is available. They will be a little more expensive, but not massively so.

[stryker]

being a bit big headed here guys  its not will amd do a card for miners, but a Q of will they do one for everyone everywhere who wants a math processor like nvidia tesla....  hell they have sunk a lot of effort in their SDKs so maybe they should sell specialised cards now?!?

[gw4tt]

AMD will improve performance in gaming with the 7xxx series cards. That's for sure. That's their target market.

Nvidia has some good cards for gaming, but they're garbage for mining.

So, as far as mining goes, who knows? No one will know until they're out. They're not designed for mining. Plain and simple.

[wndrbr3d]

Wrong...

Bitcoin has had a huge impact on availible AMD GPUs..

Plain and simple

ask any local major computer store..  

Other than anecdotal evidence, do you have any numbers to back up your claims? Limited supply of a previous generation GPU line doesn't equal Bitcoin making a huge impact. There's still PLENTY of 68xx and 69xx cards on store shelves.

58xx series cards sell out so quickly not because there's this abundant supply from the manufacturer and people keep snatching them up, it's because manufactures are moving into production of 7xxx and continuing production of 68xx and 69xx cards.

If you want anecdotal evidence that has some technical merit, go stand outside your local computer store and ask people (1) what kind of video card do they have, and (b) if they game or use Bitcoin. I'll let you guess which one will probably beat out the other 10:1.

Don't get me wrong, I *heart* Bitcoin, but just because it's big to this small community (and it is a small community) doesn't mean it's making a dramatic impact on the marketplace. Especially to the point where a manufacturer would change product direction to cater to it.

[NetTecture]

This is especialyl true as the manifacturing lines are long planned out and - well - nothing is lost to AMD by just waiting. They will ramp up production of high end chips a notch in due time (when it meets their factory timeline, latest in the 7000 generation) to cater some higher demand from the miners, but THAT IS IT.

Definitely nothing to do more than think "ok, we may sell 50% more of the 7990 than without mining".

I personally lok forward to the 7xxx series - finally a step that is long done on the CPU front. Should take down power usage as well as give a significant performance boost for my other favourite usages.

[KarlSpaat]

Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.

Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.

So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.

When are you gonna stop discouraging people from mining and/or increasing theu hash rates by bringing online new cards?

Your posts are so predictable and very consistent!

This doesnt change the fact, that he is right

[Bitcoin_Silver_Supply]

Angelus' usual theme of crying wolf over difficulty hasn't been holding up so well recently with two decreases in a row... Now he must turn attention towards fearmongering over price drops and speculation on upcoming cards.

As another poster stated, the greatest investments always come with great risk. If you don't have money to risk in BTC then it's a good idea to stay out until you do. If you do have money to blow on it, then follow Angelus' lead (not his rhetoric) and go all out. How do I know he has hypocritically gone all out while subsequently working a part time job fearmongering on mining forums, you ask?

Well, because he has one miner working 5.6 Ghash on Deepbit alone:

[mike678]

Well, because he has one miner working 5.6 Ghash on Deepbit alone:

I always wondered how much he had. I knew he probably had a sizable investment but no specifics. In all reality 5.6 ghash is only about 3-4 machines worth so its not like he has invested 10's of thousands.

[CanaryInTheMine]

In all likelihood he has a lot more, but split between other pools and maybe even between deepbit and some solo setup.  deepbit gives him constant income to pay electricity and solo is his true motive to hoard bitcoin. LOL

[AngelusWebDesign]

I have 20 cards total, no more than 3 per machine. I bought everything at a good or great price.
I've been slowly building up since I started in late May of this year; I stopped expanding right before the August 6 crash; I haven't bought a card since.
I'm glad my cards have all had a chance to partially pay for themselves; but most of that payoff happened before August 6!
Maybe 10% of the money I made came in during the last month; the other 90% came during the first 2 1/3 months. The profitability of Bitcoin has gone way down. Who hasn't noticed that?

Of course those who are already set up to mine are going to keep doing so.

BTW, I am supposed to have more like 6.1 or 6.2 GH/s, but many of my cards are throttled down to almost 50% of normal hashrate, so they don't overheat. I'm in south central Texas, were it STILL gets up over 100 every single day and only goes down to 81 in the middle of the night. No free cooling for me. I have my machines in a "hotroom" of sorts -- a game room converted into non-air-conditioned space. I was sick of the excess heat warming up the rest of my house.

[CanaryInTheMine]

I have 20 cards total, no more than 3 per machine. I bought everything at a good or great price.
I've been slowly building up since I started in late May of this year; I stopped expanding right before the August 6 crash; I haven't bought a card since.
I'm glad my cards have all had a chance to partially pay for themselves; but most of that payoff happened before August 6!
Maybe 10% of the money I made came in during the last month; the other 90% came during the first 2 1/3 months. The profitability of Bitcoin has gone way down.

Of course those who are already set up to mine are going to keep doing so.

so stop discouraging!  I understand your motive is to see difficulty continue dropping so that you can speed up your 100% payoff
but, if you want to stop giving yourself an ulcer, just stop mining and write everything off.  problem solved.

[AngelusWebDesign]

I was asking an honest question. I was merely trying to start a discussion about 7000 series cards -- why don't YOU stop giving yourself an ulcer.

[AngelusWebDesign]

Actually, it's my "critics" that are the selfish ones -- they drool over the used, after-market 6990s and 5970's they are going to pick up when various miners find out the truth about current Bitcoin profitability

The more people sink their money into them, the more units will be sold on the aftermarket.

So you can speculate about my "true motives", and I can speculate about yours. Neither of us can prove our suspicions true or false. So why go there?

Isn't it a foregone conclusion that all miners on this board want difficulty to go down, and would like to discourage people? I could point to DOZENS of threads and posts that are much more discouraging than any of mine (past or present). I don't know why I'm so memorable.

[Bitcoin_Silver_Supply]

Angelus you are memorable because of how passionately and consistently you pursue your goal of discouraging newcomers. Most mining trolls come on, post a few times and are then never heard of again. You, however, really have made this a part time job and that is remarkable.

I actually agree with many of your concerns but again it's a question of risk vs potential for reward. Everyone, even the biggest BTC bulls (many of which are also trolls), know that this project could implode at any moment. The excitement in this whole endeavor is that noone knows and everyone is left to do their own cost-benefit analysis on what they can afford to put into risk. At the end of the day it's only worthwhile if you have the money to invest and are willing to take losses.

I sympathize on mining in Texas. Things are a little easier up north..

[CanaryInTheMine]

Actually, it's my "critics" that are the selfish ones -- they drool over the used, after-market 6990s and 5970's they are going to pick up when various miners find out the truth about current Bitcoin profitability

The more people sink their money into them, the more units will be sold on the aftermarket.

So you can speculate about my "true motives", and I can speculate about yours. Neither of us can prove our suspicions true or false. So why go there?

Isn't it a foregone conclusion that all miners on this board want difficulty to go down, and would like to discourage people? I could point to DOZENS of threads and posts that are much more discouraging than any of mine (past or present). I don't know why I'm so memorable.

you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.

I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold.  You know why?  because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.

unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.

I want it to explode.  I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.

Stop being so shortsighted.  Where's your vision of bitcoin?  

[CanaryInTheMine]

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?

Just like the 6990 has more stream processors than the 5970? Oh, wait, it doesn't.

Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring?

Nope. All we can do is analyze how previous generations progressed, and extrapolate from there. From the 5000 to 6000 brought about...no change in mining capability. It's highly unlikely the 7000 will be any different. AMD designed it long ago, long before Bitcoin was as big as it is now.

That's because both the 5x and the 6x are on 40nm thingamaboppers.  The 7x are gonna be on 28nm thingamaboppers.  The extra space can/is going to be used for stream processors.

I share your understanding and the urge to point things out to those who are clueless about technology...

However, you are wasting your breath.  The fact is most people (even though current miners here are a smart and tech savvy bunch) do not understand fully what it means to go down to 28.  therefore they make stupid comments with references to prior experience based on different technology.  boys and girls it ain't apples to oranges.

[AngelusWebDesign]

you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.

I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold.  You know why?  because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.

unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.

I want it to explode.  I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.

Stop being so shortsighted.  Where's your vision of bitcoin?  

So every post that is in any way negative to Bitcoin somehow has me behind it? I didn't know I was that powerful.  
Especially since many "negative" threads are started and finished without one post of participation from me.

I also hope that Bitcoin goes mainstream. I actually have a credit card merchant account, and believe me there are few things that are that much of a pain in the butt (maybe going to the dentist, or having a colo-rectal exam?) I kid you not; they add fees every month it seems! I can't wait until I can just accept Bitcoin and drop my merchant account.

We are all allowed to discuss whatever comes to our minds on here last time I checked. I'm not going to shelve half the topics and posts I think up just because someone might get the wrong idea that I'm on a calculated campaign to discourage people. Too bad for them. I'm not a troll, my posts are perfectly in accordance with the ToS, I haven't been banned yet (and am not about to be), so there's no problem with me. If you don't like my posts, DON'T READ THEM.

Truth never hurt anyone. I'm just discussing the situation as it evolves. It shouldn't be threatening to anyone who isn't doing something stupid.

The last thing I called "ridiculous" on was $160 5830's on eBay. 2 weeks later, they were no longer a reality. I also called for sub-$1000 PCs back in 1996 (I even lost my computer store job to prove it -- I didn't sell enough high-end PCs, because I saw that a 133 Pentium was about the same as a 200 Pentium, even though the former was $1400 and the latter was $3000) I was also recommending people get out of the stock market and buy gold in 2007 (when it was $650 -- it's currently $1800 something) So I have been known to have decent "vision".

[CanaryInTheMine]

you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.

I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold.  You know why?  because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.

unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.

I want it to explode.  I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.

Stop being so shortsighted.  Where's your vision of bitcoin?  

So every post that is in any way negative to Bitcoin somehow has me behind it? I didn't know I was that powerful.  
Especially since many "negative" threads are started and finished without one post of participation from me.

I also hope that Bitcoin goes mainstream. I actually have a credit card merchant account, and believe me there are few things that are that much of a pain in the butt (maybe going to the dentist, or having a colo-rectal exam?) I kid you not; they add fees every month it seems! I can't wait until I can just accept Bitcoin and drop my merchant account.

We are all allowed to discuss whatever comes to our minds on here last time I checked. I'm not going to shelve half the topics and posts I think up just because someone might get the wrong idea that I'm on a calculated campaign to discourage people. Too bad for them. I'm not a troll, my posts are perfectly in accordance with the ToS, I haven't been banned yet (and am not about to be), so there's no problem with me. If you don't like my posts, DON'T READ THEM.

Truth never hurt anyone. I'm just discussing the situation as it evolves. It shouldn't be threatening to anyone who isn't doing something stupid.

The last thing I called "ridiculous" on was $160 5830's on eBay. 2 weeks later, they were no longer a reality. I also called for sub-$1000 PCs back in 1996 (I even lost my computer store job to prove it -- I didn't sell enough high-end PCs, because I saw that a 133 Pentium was about the same as a 200 Pentium, even though the former was $1400 and the latter was $3000) I was also recommending people get out of the stock market and buy gold in 2007 (when it was $650 -- it's currently $1800 something) So I have been known to have decent "vision".

don't take me the wrong way.  I don't "disagree" with your posts in short term or if you consider what you are saying in a small or limited construct/view. 
Honestly, your posts give me the most chuckles for some reason.

I am glad that you do see the big picture and want the same.

Anyway, have fun with your posts... see you around.  I look forward to your new posts and bemusing responses.

[Litt]

Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.

Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.

So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.

When are you gonna stop discouraging people from mining and/or increasing theu hash rates by bringing online new cards?

Your posts are so predictable and very consistent!

As far as I'm concerned, he may as well be a gov't hired goon to infiltrate and spread fud. And I honestly have no doubt that there are already many of these types in bitcointalk already doing just this. Easiest to take down bitcoin is to disseminate the supporters from inside with disinformation.

[AngelusWebDesign]

Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.

Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.

So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.

When are you gonna stop discouraging people from mining and/or increasing theu hash rates by bringing online new cards?

Your posts are so predictable and very consistent!

As far as I'm concerned, he may as well be a gov't hired goon to infiltrate and spread fud. And I honestly have no doubt that there are already many of these types in bitcointalk already doing just this. Easiest to take down bitcoin is to disseminate the supporters from inside with disinformation.

 

...because if there's anyone coherent or intelligent on bitcointalk.org they HAVE to be a government agent.

I guess I can't fault your logic -- you do have something to go on -- namely, that I bring the average IQ up a few points when I'm here.  

But government agent? Come on, I thought *I* believed in conspiracies. You see a government agent under every bush. You, my friend, are downright paranoid. Back on the meds with you!


P.S. What disinformation?  I don't expect you to answer, because I know you won't. Your kind never does. But I'd like to know what disinformation I've ever spread, now or 3 months ago. Quotes, please.

[CanaryInTheMine]

Even if you're comparing your mining return to interest at a bank (which, admittedly, is quite low), it's still silly to buy cards that won't pay off for 9 or more months.

Besides the usual argument, "Bitcoin could be $3 in a few months!" which no one can really refute...

What if the 7000 series cards have a much better stream processor count?  Another thread mentioned them having *double* the stream processors. That's only a rumor, of course, but what if something like that happened? Does any of us know what the 7000 will bring? Isn't it prudent to wait until the details have been released, before sinking one's savings into 6990s?

Those who *didn't* buy cards with a long payout will be in a better position, because they can buy the 7000 series cards and keep up with the difficulty increases that will no doubt ensue.

Those already "invested" in $500 5970's and 6990s will have to watch their returns diminish, and won't have as much capital (or free slots) for 7000 series cards as everyone else.

So there are many things to consider when you go "all in" at this point.

When are you gonna stop discouraging people from mining and/or increasing theu hash rates by bringing online new cards?

Your posts are so predictable and very consistent!

As far as I'm concerned, he may as well be a gov't hired goon to infiltrate and spread fud. And I honestly have no doubt that there are already many of these types in bitcointalk already doing just this. Easiest to take down bitcoin is to disseminate the supporters from inside with disinformation.

don't think so... that's just nonsense. 

[AngelusWebDesign]

you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.

I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold.  You know why?  because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.

unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.

I want it to explode.  I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.

Stop being so shortsighted.  Where's your vision of bitcoin?  

So every post that is in any way negative to Bitcoin somehow has me behind it? I didn't know I was that powerful.  
Especially since many "negative" threads are started and finished without one post of participation from me.

I also hope that Bitcoin goes mainstream. I actually have a credit card merchant account, and believe me there are few things that are that much of a pain in the butt (maybe going to the dentist, or having a colo-rectal exam?) I kid you not; they add fees every month it seems! I can't wait until I can just accept Bitcoin and drop my merchant account.

We are all allowed to discuss whatever comes to our minds on here last time I checked. I'm not going to shelve half the topics and posts I think up just because someone might get the wrong idea that I'm on a calculated campaign to discourage people. Too bad for them. I'm not a troll, my posts are perfectly in accordance with the ToS, I haven't been banned yet (and am not about to be), so there's no problem with me. If you don't like my posts, DON'T READ THEM.

Truth never hurt anyone. I'm just discussing the situation as it evolves. It shouldn't be threatening to anyone who isn't doing something stupid.

The last thing I called "ridiculous" on was $160 5830's on eBay. 2 weeks later, they were no longer a reality. I also called for sub-$1000 PCs back in 1996 (I even lost my computer store job to prove it -- I didn't sell enough high-end PCs, because I saw that a 133 Pentium was about the same as a 200 Pentium, even though the former was $1400 and the latter was $3000) I was also recommending people get out of the stock market and buy gold in 2007 (when it was $650 -- it's currently $1800 something) So I have been known to have decent "vision".

don't take me the wrong way.  I don't "disagree" with your posts in short term or if you consider what you are saying in a small or limited construct/view. 
Honestly, your posts give me the most chuckles for some reason.

I am glad that you do see the big picture and want the same.

Anyway, have fun with your posts... see you around.  I look forward to your new posts and bemusing responses.

Yes, I have plenty of faults and weaknesses but one of my strengths seems to be seeing the big picture -- taking a thousand points of data and forming a coherent picture from it.

I would certainly say that everything I'm saying should be taken only at face-value. I *hate* it when people read things in, and put words in my mouth.

If I say that the 7000 series should be prudently considered, I mean it should be prudently considered. I'm not "between the lines" saying anything about Bitcoin, mining,  the South African government, or the relationship between Bert and Ernie.

I'll try to keep posting amusing posts -- sometimes I get too busy to post, but I haven't given up the forum yet.


Matthew

[bcpokey]

you start these things... so don't try talking as if your constant and consistent theme is somehow shared... it it not.

I for one hope that difficulty increases 3-4 fold.  You know why?  because that would mean bitcoin would be mainstream and adopted as a payment system.

unless bitcoin is adopted and becomes mainstream, we will just hover around where we are today.

I want it to explode.  I want it to be the next paypal and without more adoption and more mining it ain't gonna happen.

Stop being so shortsighted.  Where's your vision of bitcoin?  

So every post that is in any way negative to Bitcoin somehow has me behind it? I didn't know I was that powerful.  
Especially since many "negative" threads are started and finished without one post of participation from me.

I also hope that Bitcoin goes mainstream. I actually have a credit card merchant account, and believe me there are few things that are that much of a pain in the butt (maybe going to the dentist, or having a colo-rectal exam?) I kid you not; they add fees every month it seems! I can't wait until I can just accept Bitcoin and drop my merchant account.

We are all allowed to discuss whatever comes to our minds on here last time I checked. I'm not going to shelve half the topics and posts I think up just because someone might get the wrong idea that I'm on a calculated campaign to discourage people. Too bad for them. I'm not a troll, my posts are perfectly in accordance with the ToS, I haven't been banned yet (and am not about to be), so there's no problem with me. If you don't like my posts, DON'T READ THEM.

Truth never hurt anyone. I'm just discussing the situation as it evolves. It shouldn't be threatening to anyone who isn't doing something stupid.

The last thing I called "ridiculous" on was $160 5830's on eBay. 2 weeks later, they were no longer a reality. I also called for sub-$1000 PCs back in 1996 (I even lost my computer store job to prove it -- I didn't sell enough high-end PCs, because I saw that a 133 Pentium was about the same as a 200 Pentium, even though the former was $1400 and the latter was $3000) I was also recommending people get out of the stock market and buy gold in 2007 (when it was $650 -- it's currently $1800 something) So I have been known to have decent "vision".

don't take me the wrong way.  I don't "disagree" with your posts in short term or if you consider what you are saying in a small or limited construct/view. 
Honestly, your posts give me the most chuckles for some reason.

I am glad that you do see the big picture and want the same.

Anyway, have fun with your posts... see you around.  I look forward to your new posts and bemusing responses.

Yes, I have plenty of faults and weaknesses but one of my strengths seems to be seeing the big picture -- taking a thousand points of data and forming a coherent picture from it.

I would certainly say that everything I'm saying should be taken only at face-value. I *hate* it when people read things in, and put words in my mouth.

If I say that the 7000 series should be prudently considered, I mean it should be prudently considered. I'm not "between the lines" saying anything about Bitcoin, mining,  the South African government, or the relationship between Bert and Ernie.

I'll try to keep posting amusing posts -- sometimes I get too busy to post, but I haven't given up the forum yet.


Matthew

It's not exactly a conspiracy theory, when the FBI blatantly states that it mounts every effort to disrupt and destroy anything that could compete with the usdollar via FUD and whatever.

http://www.fbi.gov/charlotte/press-releases/2011/defendant-convicted-of-minting-his-own-currency

Attempts to undermine the legitimate currency of this country are simply a unique form of domestic terrorism,” U.S. Attorney Tompkins said in announcing the verdict. “While these forms of anti-government activities do not involve violence, they are every bit as insidious and represent a clear and present danger to the economic stability of this country,” she added. “We are determined to meet these threats through infiltration, disruption, and dismantling of organizations which seek to challenge the legitimacy of our democratic form of government.

Not saying I agree with the poster who called you out on it, but just saying it's not exactly a huge stretch of the imagination, or some crazy tinfoil hat wearers fevered dreams of persecution.

As for the rest, well I shrug.

[k9quaint]

Is this a thread about the relationship of Bert and Ernie? If so, Seasame Street was ahead of its time. And yes, they were totally in love with each other.

[Striker]

Hi,

Yes, I have plenty of faults and weaknesses but one of my strengths seems to be seeing the big picture -- taking a thousand points of data and forming a coherent picture from it.

I would certainly say that everything I'm saying should be taken only at face-value. I *hate* it when people read things in, and put words in my mouth.

If I say that the 7000 series should be prudently considered, I mean it should be prudently considered. I'm not "between the lines" saying anything about Bitcoin, mining,  the South African government, or the relationship between Bert and Ernie.

I'll try to keep posting amusing posts -- sometimes I get too busy to post, but I haven't given up the forum yet.


Matthew

Sorry to intervene on such an intriguing conversation

I also have made many calls as the one you mention, the  total inevitable collapse of the dollar, major disruptions on world economy.
I also invested heavily on gold in 2006 and 2007, and then again in 2010.

Moreover , I am from Europe but I have lived and worked for a short while in 1999 in The Great State of Texas , Austin to be precise.
I simply Love the place, the people, the countryside, a great time no doubt, and I miss it a lot.

Just before that I was in Brasil researching in a University. At the time Everyone exchanged immediately from Real to USD$ as soon as they got their payments.
When I was there everyone told me. ... you must be crazy ?!?! Why don't you exchange right away to the US$ ?!?!

It was with surprise everyone listened to me explaining the basis of international economics, and how their Government at the time was really heading in the right direction and things will be ok on the contrary to the rest of the world ... they all stared at me thinking I must be crazy ... after all this time (13 years) however the numbers are clear: If I had "exchanged" to the dollar instead of keeping the cash in Brazilian Real Central Bank certificates (Brazilian Gov Debt) I would have lost 65% of the value instead of a very great 56% Gain on a zero risk app (0 risk apart from exchange rates).

Moreover: I only bought a house for me and my wife in 2008, yeah, the peak of the crisis ... for everyone to understand How Accurate my forecast have been here is the picture:
I needed at the time a loan and spreads for me where about 0.25% in my case. Spreads are the Bank margin over ECB rate Euribor. Today at 1.5%
It involved negociating with lots of banks an I had a huge deal on the financing in the middle of a world crisis.
The point was I am now paying Less then Half the cash monthly as I would by Renting the same house I live in with my wife.

You guys would not understand the Enormous pressure I had to put to in order to convince my wife to live with me a very (like Very) small apartment for 10 years!
In a time where Everyone we knew that actually earned a Lot Less then we did had Huge Houses ... I mean Huge houses, not apartments. ...

Today when I meet them they can not even stand to look at me in the eyes ...
Not that my wife was ever into managing our savings, but now she does not even ask for any investment we make ...

I could mention so many other things you do not even imagine ... things where I gained and were literally to put my money where my mouth is against everyone else common sense.

My forecasts, some of them long term forecasts, where Dead On.

So I dare anyone to show a track record compare to what I have done.
And all this in an environment where everyone considered me a complete fool. It was "obvious" I was wrong ... houses prices never came down ... dollar will not fall ... Gold is a dead investment  and so many more things.

Hence I really see a major downfall of the US$ and yes, I see bitcoins as Way More safe then any US$. For several reasons.
I do see bitcoins as the new World coin. Just think about increasing bank and Credit card fees ...
And lets face it: No country is a safe guardian of currency and actually gold is kind of hard to be used as a trade and exchange.
Examples abound: the Euro is also a mess although only for a short time of a couple of years, the Yen is what we all know but even like that I trust it more then the US$. We could go on and on with all other currencies ...

Bitcoins, gold, and some other assets are immune to this debacle of currencies, with the US$ at the top of devaluation, risking a major major tumble.

I agree on your stance over the 7000 series. It will be faster no doubt. It Certainly be Much Less power hungry. How much?
We do not know.
But I must remind you that the 28nm is made by TSMC. The initial date is already set back one year from the original date ...
So I think that top of line boards will not be here before Q1 2010 at best.
They will certainly not be aimed at mining ... and also, like you said, many people have 6990 on major rig operations.
For that reason I can not see the big farmers exchanging their current 6990 for 7990 ... some have not even pay for the investment ...
Also there is the question of the 7990 availability, like I have said before ... going from 40nm to 28nm is not the same as going from 32nm to 28nm ... and TSMC (a company I really appreciate by the way) already made some blops on the way to 32nm ...

And they will cost more then the current 6990 for sure. Once again, how much no one knows (initial technology (28nm) costs are very very high ... ).

I am about to buy 20X  6990  and can even go for 40 X 6990 ... these boards will be profitable for a long time ... maybe longer then what we think.

If you actually see the big picture I would strongly suggest you take into consideration _ALL_ market conditions that point to a Hugelly undervalued bitcoin at current prices.
I think 35US$ / BTC is actually a very low exchange rate.


Regards.

[Striker]

Hi,

It's not exactly a conspiracy theory, when the FBI blatantly states that it mounts every effort to disrupt and destroy anything that could compete with the usdollar via FUD and whatever.

http://www.fbi.gov/charlotte/press-releases/2011/defendant-convicted-of-minting-his-own-currency

Attempts to undermine the legitimate currency of this country are simply a unique form of domestic terrorism,” U.S. Attorney Tompkins said in announcing the verdict. “While these forms of anti-government activities do not involve violence, they are every bit as insidious and represent a clear and present danger to the economic stability of this country,” she added. “We are determined to meet these threats through infiltration, disruption, and dismantling of organizations which seek to challenge the legitimacy of our democratic form of government.

Not saying I agree with the poster who called you out on it, but just saying it's not exactly a huge stretch of the imagination, or some crazy tinfoil hat wearers fevered dreams of persecution.

As for the rest, well I shrug.

FBI is clearly not aware of the Constitution of the United States of America.
If they were they would know that it is Not Legal to have a Federal Reserve, specially not in the current terms.
If only they would have Read the Constitution they would know that The Only Legal currency in the USA is actually Gold, and ONLY States are allowed to print Gold-Backed currency.

Well, maybe it is just me listening too much to Alex Jones ...  

Also ... it only reveals How Desperate they are ...

Regards.

[AngelusWebDesign]

I just noticed today that BTC took another 5% dump.

It's true that BTC "could" go to da moon, and "could" go to 10 cents.

But which is more likely -- or, is a third option more likely?

The charts HAVE to give us some indication. Does anyone remember what BTC were selling for right after the Mt Gox hack? $16!  The it dropped a dollar or two every week or so.

Recently, it dipped to 7 before recovering to around $12.50 (briefly) then was pretty stable at $11.50 for a while.  Now $11 seems like a distant dream!

Even $8.50 is out of reach at the moment.

So I must say that an explosion in value would require a "black swan" (out of left field) event, whereas the status quo is lower and lower every couple weeks -- who knows how low it will go before stopping and/or reversing. It SHOULD stop when miners stop selling -- but, as many people point out, BTC mining is still profitable (if you're good at it, have cheap electricity, etc.) at the crappy price of $8 per BTC.

As long as there's profit to be made, the difficulty will rise and/or the price will drop, until it reaches an equillibrium.

Heck, I hear about guys buying 40 6990's today. Even with BTC at $8.10 each. Difficulty is going to rise -- unless a bunch of people jump ship at the same time of course.

It's not too bold of a prediction I'm making -- namely, that returns are going to continue to diminish. But that's why I'm leery of 9, 10 and 12-month payoff periods.

Believe me, I hope somebody invents a personal fusion reactor, or generator that runs on water, that the inventor decides to ONLY sell for Bitcoin -- 12 BTC each. That would be just the shot in the arm we need 

[gw4tt]

There are some miners purchasing those cards specifically for the alternative chains though.

If you're buying a lot of cards right now for bitcoin you're betting on the exchange rate to go up - and if you're doing that you might as well just buy bitcoins right now. It's clear that's the better option.

With the 7XXX series coming out it makes it even more risky.

[CanaryInTheMine]

I just noticed today that BTC took another 5% dump.

It's true that BTC "could" go to da moon, and "could" go to 10 cents.

But which is more likely -- or, is a third option more likely?

The charts HAVE to give us some indication. Does anyone remember what BTC were selling for right after the Mt Gox hack? $16!  The it dropped a dollar or two every week or so.

Recently, it dipped to 7 before recovering to around $12.50 (briefly) then was pretty stable at $11.50 for a while.  Now $11 seems like a distant dream!

Even $8.50 is out of reach at the moment.

So I must say that an explosion in value would require a "black swan" (out of left field) event, whereas the status quo is lower and lower every couple weeks -- who knows how low it will go before stopping and/or reversing. It SHOULD stop when miners stop selling -- but, as many people point out, BTC mining is still profitable (if you're good at it, have cheap electricity, etc.) at the crappy price of $8 per BTC.

As long as there's profit to be made, the difficulty will rise and/or the price will drop, until it reaches an equillibrium.

Heck, I hear about guys buying 40 6990's today. Even with BTC at $8.10 each. Difficulty is going to rise -- unless a bunch of people jump ship at the same time of course.

It's not too bold of a prediction I'm making -- namely, that returns are going to continue to diminish. But that's why I'm leery of 9, 10 and 12-month payoff periods.

Believe me, I hope somebody invents a personal fusion reactor, or generator that runs on water, that the inventor decides to ONLY sell for Bitcoin -- 12 BTC each. That would be just the shot in the arm we need 

I have some 6990s to sell   let em know who these guys are who want to buy 40 of them... maybe I can sell them some...

[bcpokey]

I just noticed today that BTC took another 5% dump.

It's true that BTC "could" go to da moon, and "could" go to 10 cents.

But which is more likely -- or, is a third option more likely?

The charts HAVE to give us some indication. Does anyone remember what BTC were selling for right after the Mt Gox hack? $16!  The it dropped a dollar or two every week or so.

Recently, it dipped to 7 before recovering to around $12.50 (briefly) then was pretty stable at $11.50 for a while.  Now $11 seems like a distant dream!

Even $8.50 is out of reach at the moment.

So I must say that an explosion in value would require a "black swan" (out of left field) event, whereas the status quo is lower and lower every couple weeks -- who knows how low it will go before stopping and/or reversing. It SHOULD stop when miners stop selling -- but, as many people point out, BTC mining is still profitable (if you're good at it, have cheap electricity, etc.) at the crappy price of $8 per BTC.

As long as there's profit to be made, the difficulty will rise and/or the price will drop, until it reaches an equillibrium.

Heck, I hear about guys buying 40 6990's today. Even with BTC at $8.10 each. Difficulty is going to rise -- unless a bunch of people jump ship at the same time of course.

It's not too bold of a prediction I'm making -- namely, that returns are going to continue to diminish. But that's why I'm leery of 9, 10 and 12-month payoff periods.

Believe me, I hope somebody invents a personal fusion reactor, or generator that runs on water, that the inventor decides to ONLY sell for Bitcoin -- 12 BTC each. That would be just the shot in the arm we need  

I have some 6990s to sell  let em know who these guys are who want to buy 40 of them... maybe I can sell them some...

He's probably talking about Striker, who posted that in this thread (long post, hard to read I know), as anecdotal evidence.

EDIT: Just a reminder, price of coin and difficulty are not related (well, order matters, price doesn't rest on difficulty).

[AngelusWebDesign]

I don't know what's dictating BTC price right now, but whatever's calling the shots is calling that BTC go down, down, down...

Currently in the $7's

Getting a bit frustrating, to be honest. I'm just having a hard time seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. I'm just glad my costs are relatively low, and that I didn't just go out and spend several $K on mining hardware   If I make a little profit and just about break even before BTC hits $4, then great.

I do wonder if the pace of decline will slow if it gets any lower. Aren't there enough speculators out there to buoy up the price? Isn't the supply of BTC to-be-sold going down at all?

[ElectricMucus]

I don't get what's with all the whining. Instead of waiting for opportunities to sell high just use the coins and buy something.
Just buy something from another community member and skip the damn USD, EUR or whatnot.

The more people who do this the more likely the price will recover.
Feels like I'm preaching against the wall... but you all know its right.

[johnj]

I don't get what's with all the whining. Instead of waiting for opportunities to sell high just use the coins and buy something.
Just buy something from another community member and skip the damn USD, EUR or whatnot.

The more people who do this the more likely the price will recover.
Feels like I'm preaching against the wall... but you all know its right.

As soon as I can pay my power bill in BTC, I won't worry about the conversion (as much).

[Cluster2k]

The best use of money right now is not buying more mining hardware.  Depending on power costs, it takes 6+ months to pay for itself.  Lame.  Buying more hardware increases difficulty and makes it even harder to acquire bitcoins.  Lame++.  The better approach is to simply buy bitcoins on the exchanges.  You'll be helping to support the price (you do want to sell at a profit, right?) and also not actively increasing the supply of bitcoins (thus competing against yourself).  Now go forth and purchase... I have bitcoins to sell :-)

[gw4tt]

I'm just waiting for the exchange rate to fall below $6 then I'll buy.

[Litt]

This thread is so full of crap.. People talking up nonsense and they are patting each other on their backs trying to discourage new miners. Have fun boys.  

Oh and mining will be profitable at $.12/kwh even down to $3btc. If you want to sell your mining gears I'm certain people with higher IQ than you will buy that quickly off you.

[pennytrader]

This thread is so full of crap.. People talking up nonsense and they are patting each other on their backs trying to discourage new miners. Have fun boys. 

Oh and mining will be profitable at $.12/kwh even down to $3btc. If you want to sell your mining gears I'm certain people with higher IQ than you will buy that quickly off you.

Everybody who is selling their mining gears should quote your post:
"Want to show higher IQ? Buy my cards!"

[AngelusWebDesign]

I'm just waiting for the exchange rate to fall below $6 then I'll buy.

I hope you have money in Mt. Gox standing by...

[Bitcoin_Silver_Supply]

Quite the crash happening at the moment. It seems likely that difficulty will also hit the floor if we drop as low as many of the former true believers have come to predict.

Just like you predicted, right Angelus?   

[AngelusWebDesign]

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...

[Bitcoin_Silver_Supply]

"Use your negative feelings, boy. Let the pessimism floooow through you!"

[Surawit]

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...

http://www.angeluswebdesign.com/palpatine.jpg

Emperor... sir... we are receiving a hologram message... from... Tokyo...

https://i.imgur.com/TSVNk.jpg

[AngelusWebDesign]

Who is that, MagicalTux?

[bcpokey]

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...

Or is it?

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/71-graphics/44072-radeon-hd-7900-series-gets-new-architecture-and-xdr2-rambus-memory.html

[makomk]

Or is it?

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/71-graphics/44072-radeon-hd-7900-series-gets-new-architecture-and-xdr2-rambus-memory.html

Most of that has been known for a long time. What that doesn't mention - amongst other things - is that it looks like they're going to support BFI_INT on the vector units (and bitalign too). Pretty much the only use for BFI_INT is really fast hash computation, for stuff like Bitcoin mining, password cracking, and similar problems.

[Bitcoin_Silver_Supply]

Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen...

Emperor... sir... we are receiving a hologram message... from... Tokyo...

lol.

I believe it's Bruce.

[bcpokey]

Or is it?

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/71-graphics/44072-radeon-hd-7900-series-gets-new-architecture-and-xdr2-rambus-memory.html

Most of that has been known for a long time. What that doesn't mention - amongst other things - is that it looks like they're going to support BFI_INT on the vector units (and bitalign too). Pretty much the only use for BFI_INT is really fast hash computation, for stuff like Bitcoin mining, password cracking, and similar problems.

Actually as far as I know, there has been very little information on the 78xx released. Though I suppose in this world of insta-news feeds a week or two may now constitute a "long time"  .

I guess that it is good news that the 7000 series will have the same support as the 5000 series though.