Bitcoin Forum
December 07, 2016, 10:59:19 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin & Gold  (Read 1499 times)
eyal
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 38


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 06:54:17 AM
 #1


http://Http://openbitcoin.biz - Open Bitcoin Business - an OSS based service, where the contributors can be paid!
1481108359
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481108359

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481108359
Reply with quote  #2

1481108359
Report to moderator
1481108359
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481108359

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481108359
Reply with quote  #2

1481108359
Report to moderator
1481108359
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481108359

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481108359
Reply with quote  #2

1481108359
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481108359
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481108359

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481108359
Reply with quote  #2

1481108359
Report to moderator
1481108359
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481108359

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481108359
Reply with quote  #2

1481108359
Report to moderator
Tomatocage
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1526

brb keeping up with the Kardashians


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 07:09:37 AM
 #2

Awesome, only 12 more years to go!

THIS SPOT FOR RENT* | GPG ID: 4880D85C | 1% Escrow | 8% IPO/ICO Escrow services Temporarily Closed | Bitcointalk is the ONLY place where I use this name (No Skype/IRC/YIM/AIM/etc) | 13CsmTqGNwvFXb7tD9yFvJcEYCDTB8wQTS | Beware of these SCAM sites! | *Sponsored Link
ercolinux
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910



View Profile WWW
September 05, 2011, 07:11:33 AM
 #3

Nice parallel. Only hope that took a little less time to begin to grow again: 24 years from gold to BTC scale is 2-3 years and today is more 1982-1986 range than in the 94-98 in which you put it.

Bitrated user: ercolinux.
phelix
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1680


nmc:id/phelix


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 09:55:51 AM
 #4

of course bitcoin time runs faster. one bitcoin block ~ one gold week  Grin

blockchained.com ■ bitcointalk top posts
eyal
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 38


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 11:20:50 AM
 #5

There are some key point that can be defined in the timeline of Gold and Bitcoin:
1. First Rally Start: When was a Free (no pre-set price) Exchange Market established. For this purpose, I assume that Exchange Markets are "established" when there is a general awareness to the existence of the Exchange, and there is a method for the public to exchange the currency for USD with no preset price. ('71 for gold, ending the gold standard thus making gold an independent decentralized currency, and 16-Apr-11 for Bitcoin ,using the first mainstream coverage in TIME magazine as the date from which awareness to bitcoin existed, needless to say that it did not make Bitcoin nearly as famous as Gold in '71, but the word spreads fast these days)
2. First Peak: The high-point which initialized the government intervention, which is followed by a long decline (Jan'80 for gold, and Jun'11 for bitcoin)
3. Second Rally Start :Balance of powers between Market Forces and Government intervention shifts (Apr 2001 for Gold, TBD for Bitcoin)
4. New Record Price: Market Price Exceed last peak and continue to skyrocket with no real resistance (Jan 2009 for Gold, TBD for Bitcoin)

I've attempted to calculate the Bitcoin future based on Gold's past using simple rationing. These are the results:

The Ratio between the progress rate of the events is ~1:60, meaning that market events occur 60x faster today compared to '71.

The model predicts that Bitcoin price would starts its rally around 15-Oct-2011 (As the World's Economic Collapse would likely gain even more momentum), from a price of around $8 (Assuming a similar 70% drop - which is what happened to Gold prices ''80-'01). At that point, the balance of power will shift from the Government intervention to Bitcoin Exchange Market forces at that point, and the price would begin an exponential upward trend.

The model predicts that around 2-Dec-2011 - Bitcoin will return to it's peak price of ~30$ and would continue it's exponential upward trend with no real resistance.

Calculation: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnHPNP-GDn7adDBxM2FuRlVZTmhQTlVSaUZtM05MSnc&hl=en_US

http://Http://openbitcoin.biz - Open Bitcoin Business - an OSS based service, where the contributors can be paid!
rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
September 05, 2011, 12:01:16 PM
 #6

And your assumption of government intervention is based on what?

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540


Drama Junkie


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 12:11:59 PM
 #7

Graphs do not work that way.

The timespans, scales and ratios, they are all different. The only thing common is that there is a peak and a slope.

You cannot possible compare bitcoin to gold.
The usual bitcoin buyer gets to bitcoin like this: Have you heard of bitcoin? It's this new internet currency, it's highly volatile and you can already buy stuff with it.
On the other hand you don't have: Have you heard of gold? It's this ancient store of value, it's shiny and you can put it under your mattress.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
eyal
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 38


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 12:58:53 PM
 #8

And your assumption of government intervention is based on what?

Gold: http://goldprice.org/news/2005/05/government-intervention-against-gold.html

Bitcoin: http://www.libertariannews.org/2011/08/30/bitcoin-fbi-admits-to-engaging-in-infiltration-disruption-and-dismantling-of-competing-currencies/

http://Http://openbitcoin.biz - Open Bitcoin Business - an OSS based service, where the contributors can be paid!
cbeast
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1722

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 01:53:31 PM
 #9


Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
sunnankar
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1030



View Profile WWW
September 05, 2011, 04:57:30 PM
 #10

You cannot possible compare bitcoin to gold.

Sure you can. What is illogical is to compare it the way eyal did by relying on class probability instead of case probability.

rebuilder
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1618



View Profile
September 05, 2011, 05:03:21 PM
 #11

I'm not seeing the smoking gun here, eyal.

Selling out to advertisers shows you respect neither yourself nor the rest of us.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Too many low-quality posts? Mods not keeping things clean enough? Self-moderated threads let you keep signature spammers and trolls out!
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!