Bitcoin Forum
November 24, 2017, 07:32:02 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: Do u think BTC mining difficulty in Apr will be around 18,048,808,968  (Read 932 times)
athatisme2
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4


View Profile
January 15, 2014, 03:29:26 AM
 #1

I just looking the KNC miner 3.3T, the delivery date is around Q2 of 2014, uumm i'm thinking about is it worth to buy it. But try base on the trend of BTC difficulty, 10 or 12 days and around 26% change, my result is 18,048,808,968 around 23/4 if KNC delay....

i pasted the value http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty , that really make me depressed that i can only earn 0.09 BTC per day ....  Cry    hopefully the value of BTC will be higher and higher~~
Am I wrong with it ?

Date         Difficulty      Change
23/4/2014      18,048,808,968   26.00%   (my personal predict only)
13/4/2014           14,324,451,562   26.00%
3/4/2014           11,368,612,351   26.00%
24/3/2014           9,022,708,215   26.00%
14/3/2014           7,160,879,536   26.00%
4/3/2014           5,683,237,727   26.00%
22/2/2014     4,510,506,132   26.00%
12/2/2014      3,579,766,772   26.00%
2/2/2014      2,841,084,739   26.00%
23/1/2014    2,254,829,158   26.00%


13/1/2014    1,789,546,951   26.16%
2/1/2014      1,418,481,395   20.12%
21/12/2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%
10/12/2013   908,350,862   28.41%
29/11/2013   707,408,283   16.07%
1511508722
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511508722

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511508722
Reply with quote  #2

1511508722
Report to moderator
1511508722
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511508722

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511508722
Reply with quote  #2

1511508722
Report to moderator
1511508722
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1511508722

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1511508722
Reply with quote  #2

1511508722
Report to moderator
Join ICO Now A blockchain platform for effective freelancing
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932


A new tool for prediction https://bitvol.info/


View Profile
January 15, 2014, 03:32:58 AM
 #2

well sooner or later growth will slow. 26%  a jump will be possible for only so long.

Please support sidehack with his new miner project Send to : 1BURGERAXHH6Yi6LRybRJK7ybEm5m5HwTr
I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
Entropy-uc
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672


View Profile
January 15, 2014, 03:46:03 AM
 #3

I think you are on track.

The long delays between hardware orders and delivery mean that difficulty will shoot far past the level where a rational person would not decide to invest in mining hardware.  Buying mining gear now is essentially a bet that BTC will be far more valuable in the future.

The trouble is buying BTC is the same bet, and you can probably get more BTC today for your dollars than buying mining gear will ever yield.
frankenmint
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1064


HoneybadgerOfMoney.com Weed4bitcoin.com


View Profile WWW
January 15, 2014, 03:59:16 AM
 #4

more like

29%
3%
10%
2%
30%
5%


No such thing as linear difficulty jumps in exponential terms.  If this happens so much that many many people are deterred to btc mining, they excess hashpower will now fill up the alt chain sha algorithms, particularly if the coin is poised to be profitable, such as UNO or BETA (reference to December when BTC was in the middle of the coinwarz list)

dbell
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 59


View Profile
January 15, 2014, 08:27:16 AM
 #5

My calculations tell me that even the best mining hardware deals out there are negative to marginal in terms of BTC return right now.   I feel fortunate to have gotten in on of the earlier rounds of the Antminer.  I don't even think that the current purchase of an Antminer will ROI on BTC at the current price, current and increasing difficulty and the price of electricity. 

I expect the shops in China to keep building new hardware right now and either using it themselves or selling it.  I expect Black Arrow and Cointerra to deliver and others eventually as well and thus the flood of hashing power to continue with no slow down in hash rate growth.  I expect this will be followed by secondary developers (China) using the 28nm ASIC chips and the flood of hash power to continue.  Price of "immediate delivery" hardware to the "gentleman miner" will just follow its marginal ROI value as it has been.

So I think you need to be early and lucky as a buyer of finished hardware.

At this point the mining hardware developers are the ones making money mining with their own hardware and then selling it at prices that are marginal to negative in terms of ROI.    If you are smart enough to build your own boards you might be able to get a decent ROI by building your own.  If you are smart enough to design an ASIC, you can make lots of mining money.

If you are depending on the price of BTC to go so that you can get ROI, then you are better off just buying Bitcoin directly.  Less risk.... but less interesting too.
brontosaurus
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 232


View Profile
January 16, 2014, 01:30:40 PM
 #6

The real answer is that no one knows what will happen. 18000 million is probably a bit high, anyone seriously mining just know knows that a ton of new kit is going to get dumped on the network starting mid February when all the chip orders from November start to come through to production. 1800 million would very roughly equate to a total network hashng power of 130,000 TH; from the present 14,000 TH that's adding 116,000 TH, or nearly 60 THOUSAND 2TH rigs. None of the current or 'pending' suppliers have production capabilities for units of this size and complexity anywhere near 1000 a week at present, and it would take them quite some time to get up the learning curve. The 'hidden' mining companies are another matter altogether, but I'll bet even they can't turn on instant capacity via their subcontractors.

So buyers will tread carefully unless they get offered a stellar deal - or the value of BTC jumps again which will start a whole new cycle.

But I'd also advise anyone thinking of buying to consider this - if you were an existing miner earning good money on your existing setup, would you want to encourage new entrants who will push the difficulty up? So be careful of what you read, there are hidden agendas!

rext
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 210



View Profile WWW
January 16, 2014, 01:47:13 PM
 #7

if Bitcoin worths about 3k then, probably it will still be fine.

U1TRA_L0RD
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 126

CAUTION: Angry Man with Attitude.


View Profile
January 17, 2014, 06:57:10 AM
 #8

Then the KNC Neptunes and Cointerra Miners will be making less and wont make any ROI.
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!